National

It's easy to miss the big political picture in a week in which President Biden announced his re-election campaign and Republicans sound increasingly resigned to Donald Trump repeating as the GOP's presidential nominee.

Yes, but: Zoom out from the most eye-catching headlines, and Republicans showed clear signs of momentum — from the GOP's surprising unity on Capitol Hill to Senate Republicans' recruitment success to polls showing Trump running competitively against Biden.

Driving the news: Republicans benefited from three big developments this week:

Against expectations, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy held his unwieldy caucus together for legislation that would raise the debt ceiling and cut federal spending. By holding the party line, he tests the White House's position not to negotiate over the debt ceiling.

Senate Republicans landed an A-list recruit, popular West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice, to run against Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Early polling shows Justice leading Manchin in a pivotal race for Republican efforts to take back the Senate majority. Justice will still need to win a contested GOP primary against Rep. Alex Mooney to get to the general election.

Manchin's statement reacting to the governor's announcement fueled speculation that he would retire or pursue a third-party presidential campaign. "Make no mistake, I will win any race I enter," Manchin said.

By the numbers: Meanwhile, the latest wave of national polls show a razor-tight rematch between Biden and Trump — most within the margin of error. On average, Biden leads Trump by 1.4 points, according to the FiveThirtyEight average.

Last week's Wall Street Journal poll found Biden only up by three. A new Emerson poll pegs Biden's lead at just one point. This week's Morning Consult's tracking poll pegged Biden's edge at two.

The data showing a competitive rematch makes it harder for Republicans to argue that Trump is unelectable — even if he performs a bit worse than other Republicans in head-to-head ballot tests.

A new NBC poll found that Biden would trail a generic Republican by six points (47%-41%), a weak position for an incumbent. Gallup's new survey found Biden's approval down to 37% amid fresh economic concerns — the lowest at any point in his presidency.

Reality check: A small Biden popular vote advantage doesn't necessarily translate into victory. Biden defeated Trump by 4.4% in 2020 but narrowly won in three battleground states that made the difference in the Electoral College (Wisconsin, Georgia and Arizona).

What they're saying: Nate Cohn, the New York Times' election guru, wrote this week: "The modest Biden lead in national polls today wouldn’t be enough for him to secure re-election." He asked: "If Mr. Trump is doomed, why isn’t he getting trounced in the polls?"

The bottom line: On all fronts, the Republican Party's biggest enemy is itself. The party's right wing could still disrupt the GOP's best-laid plans, as could Trump's intensifying legal troubles.

McCarthy's success in unifying his caucus could be short-lived if Republicans won't agree on the concessions necessary to reach a favorable deal with Biden.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee's recruitment success in West Virginia (and elsewhere) won't matter until it can get its favored candidates through contested primaries.

For all of Biden's vulnerabilities, he's been tacking to the political middle while potential opponents like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — often tagged as a more electable Republican than Trump — has been championing policies favored by the far-right.

The GOP's quiet winning streak

For all his problems, polls show Trump is running competitively against Biden.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell outside the White House in May 2021. Photo: Nicholas Kamm/AFP via Getty Images

Republican Party

Politics & Policy

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation began accepting formal bids at noon today for embattled First Republic Bank, according to sources familiar with the matter, as suitors and the government scramble to stabilize the San Francisco lender. 

Why it matters: Clarity on the fate of the bank, which has lost nearly all of its market value in the span of a few weeks, is critical to stopping investor flight from First Republic. 

Global investors need confidence that the U.S. financial sector is able to manage the recent turmoil, which has claimed at least three other banks in less than two months. 

Details: Sources said that JPMorgan and PNC were among the banks that submitted bids by Sunday's noon deadline, with the FDIC expecting to inform suitors of the result of the offers by 5 p.m. EST today. 

Bloomberg reported yesterday that Bank of America and U.S. Bancorp also planned to submit offers by the deadline. 

Of note: Axios could not determine the value of the offers being submitted. 

Also unknown is whether the FDIC plans to takeover First Republic and place it under receivership, as it did with Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. 

Sources told Axios that the FDIC wants the fate of First Republic to be resolved by tonight, before the U.S. market opens on Monday. 

Banks submit First Republic bids to FDIC as fate of lender looms

The government hopes to resolve the fate of bank by Monday's open on Wall Street.

First Republic's San Francisco headquarters. (Photo:Tayfun Coskun, Getty Images)

Banking

Dealmaking

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

Young Americans who grew up in an age of mass shootings feel anxious about the future — and nearly half say they've felt unsafe in the last month, according to a new poll from the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics.

Why it matters: Those fears are mobilizing young people to vote in near-record numbers, says John Della Volpe, director of polling at the institute.

Case in point: The 2022 midterms saw the second-highest turnout among voters under 30 (27%) in at least the last three decades, NPR notes.

"It's a critical voting bloc," Della Volpe says.

And it continues to tilt the scales in favor of Democratic candidates — whom young people overwhelmingly support.

Young voters' influence "enabled the Democrats to win almost every battleground statewide contest and increase their majority in the U.S. Senate," Brookings Institution analysts write.

By the numbers: A stunning 48% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 say they've felt unsafe recently, the Harvard poll found (2,069 people; margin of error: ±2.86 points).

21% say they've felt unsafe at school. And 40% are concerned about being victims of gun violence or a mass shooting.

They're also worried about the state of the economy.

73% believe that homelessness could happen to anyone, and 32% fear they could one day be homeless.

That share rises to 43% and 39% when looking at Hispanic and Black youth.

What to watch: The Institute of Politics has tracked striking shifts in young Americans' views on government over the last decade.

In 2013, 35% felt that the government should spend money to reduce poverty. Today, 59% do.

29% said the government should act to mitigate climate change — even at the expense of economic growth — in 2013. Today, 50% believe the government should take action.

The bottom line: This is a generation that feels besieged, says Della Volpe. And their fear will likely become more and more relevant in politics.

America's youth fears for the future

A stunning 48% of Americans between the ages of 18 and 29 say they've felt unsafe recently, the Harvard poll found.

Gun violence

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

The American lawn has become the latest front-line issue in neighborhoods across the country: Some are shelling out to maintain lush greens while others forgo mowing and chemical treatments.

Why it matters: Environmental campaigns like "No Mow May," the "anti-lawn" movement, "Food Not Lawns" and "Climate Victory Gardens" are gaining steam — but prompting homeowner associations and other traditionalists to dig in their heels.

The issue pits property values, aesthetics and "curb appeal" against concerns about drought, gas-powered mowers and biodiversity.

Even among those who prize sustainability, there's debate over lawn care techniques — but agreement that too much mowing is bad for pollinators.

Driving the news: As spring gardening season begins, homeowners are wrestling with personal decisions about how to tackle lawn care: To mow or not to mow? Irrigate? Fertilize?

The "No Mow" and "Low Mow" campaigns aim to make yards more conducive to bees and butterflies — but you might face blowback from your neighbors if you try it out.

Homeowner associations have been clamping down on residents who let their lawns go brown or wild, even taking people to court over the state of their yards.

At the same time, Democratic lawmakers are taking the lead in passing regulations that prod people toward "green" lawn care.

California's landmark law banning the sale of new gas-powered mowers and leaf blowers takes effect next year. Other states and cities are following suit.

Towns that adopt "No Mow May" agree not to issue citations to homeowners who let their grass grow long.

Between the lines: The grass itself isn't the only battleground. "Yard sign wars" have flared up across the country over people using their turf for flamboyant political displays — which often linger far past the election they target.

State of play: Drip irrigation systems, organic herbicides and electric mowers are helping people of all political stripes shift toward more climate-conscious lawns.

Studies have shown that cutting the grass every two weeks (or less) is great for bees, which thrive on dandelions and clover.

But neighbors may complain about an unkempt or unsightly lawn, prompting some homeowners to put up signs explaining the "no mow" experiment.

What they're saying: "The more conservative someone is, the more staunchly they hold the belief that they need to hold a perfectly manicured green lawn," Emma Kriss of Green America, an environmental nonprofit, tells Axios.

Her organization has signed up 20,000 people to grow "Climate Victory Gardens," modeled after World War I- and II-era vegetable gardens.

"We do encourage people to grow food, or at the very least have a pollinator garden," Kriss said. "We encourage people to grow native plants. The main practices are not using those harmful synthetic pesticides and fertilizers."

The climate-friendly lawn drive has triggered a whole new vocabulary.

People are xeriscaping their lawns — removing irrigation and replacing turf with cactuses, rocks and succulents.

Others are planting bee lawns — turfgrass with weeds that pollinators find delicious — and installing birdhouse-like bee hotels.

Some are painting their lawns green, choosing nontoxic pigments in colors like "Fairway" and "Perennial Rye."

"Clover lawns," which look like a carpet of weeds, are also trending, as are "food lawns" and programs like "lawns to legumes."

Reality check: A Lawrence University research paper that inspired the "No Mow May" movement was retracted, prompting debate this year in Appleton, Wisconsin — the U.S. birthplace of the movement —  over whether to continue letting people forgo mowing this May.

The detractors were outvoted, and the city is continuing the program.

The other side: Experts say that not mowing your lawn for a month or letting it go wild — which is what the anti-lawn movement largely espouses — can backfire.

Removing lawns entirely — which has happened in drought-ridden California — can lead to unstable soil and mudslides, says Cale Bigelow, a professor of turf science, horticulture and landscape architecture at Purdue University.

Neglecting a lawn can cause environmental problems too. "A few years after you stop feeding a lawn, you start to get more phosphorus runoff," Bigelow says.

As for letting your grass grow for a solid month? Good luck wielding the mower on June 1.

A better approach, Bigelow says, is the "turf trade" program in Salt Lake City, where residents can purchase a special mix of grasses — tall fescue and a bit of bluegrass — that are well suited to the region and need 30% less water than is typical.

Some experts also favor the "lazy lawnmower approach" — a happy medium between weekly trims and letting the yard run wild.

"People don't have to let their lawns go so it looks messy, but they can do a bit less," Susannah Lerman, a USDA Forest Service research ecologist, tells Axios.

An article she published concludes that mowing every two to three weeks is optimal.

Zoom in: Spring is also homebuying season, and realtors will insist on immaculate landscaping.

"If it's a beautiful lawn and it's well maintained, that is key to selling your house," says Jeff Herman of LawnStarter.com, which connects people to lawn care professionals.

Lawn wars consume America's neighborhoods

Perfect green lawns make a statement these days — as do lawns that participate in "No Mow May."

Illustration of a lawnmower towering over a butterfly on a flower.

Homeownership

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

President Biden took several jabs at his age during his speech at the White House Correspondents' Association's annual dinner on Saturday, somewhat acknowledging one of the issues inserting itself into his 2024 campaign. 

Why it matters: Though Biden was joking with the audience, his age is a concern for many voters and has been highlighted as a reason some would prefer the president not run for a second term. 

Biden, who is currently 80 and the oldest person to be president, would be 82 on inauguration day if elected to a second term. 

He would be 86 at the end of a second term. 

What he's saying: "I get that age is a completely reasonable issue. It’s on everyone’s mind, by everyone I mean The New York Times." 

 Biden also honed in on Fox News' 93-year-old owner Rupert Murdoch, asking how he could "dislike a guy who makes me look like Harry Styles?” in reference to their respective age differences.

“You say I’m over the hill,” Biden added. "Don Lemon would say that’s a man in his prime.”

Lemon, an ex-CNN news anchor previously insulted 51-year-old GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley by calling her a woman past her prime after she announced her candidacy. 

"Call me old, I call it being seasoned. You say I am ancient, I say I'm wise," Biden said.

Context: Biden and Trump are the oldest to have held the presidency and both are currently campaigning for re-election to the White House. 

Multiple polls have indicated that voters from both political parties, as well as independent voters, want new candidates. 

Yes, but: When asked if they would vote for Biden the majority of Democrats said they would.

Trump also leads among other GOP candidates, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis ranked second according to an NBC News poll. DeSantis has not entered the 2024 race. 

Biden jokes about his age at White House Correspondents' Dinner

Joe Biden stands at a blue podium with the presidential seal on it as he gives a speech at the White House Correspondents' dinner. 

US President Joe Biden speaks during the White House Correspondents' Association dinner at the Washington Hilton in Washington, DC, April 29, 2023.  (Photo by SAUL LOEB/AFP via Getty Images)

Joe Biden

A divide has opened between House and Senate Democrats over whether President Biden should negotiate a debt ceiling compromise with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), Axios has learned. 

Why it matters: The public discordance between the two caucuses, at a time when Democrats want a united front against GOP efforts to slash government spending, appears to have party leaders spooked.

At least one House Democrat has received a call from Senate Democratic leadership urging them to tamp down their advocacy for talks between the White House and House Republicans, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

Nearly a dozen House Democrats have told Axios, Politico and the Washington Post, or written publicly, that they believe Biden and McCarthy should be in discussions on the debt ceiling.

Most recently, Trump-district Reps. Jared Golden (D-Maine), Mary Peltola (D-Alaska) and Marie Pérez (D-Wash.) wrote in a letter: "It is time to end the partisan standoff and brinkmanship before it rattles markets, damages our economy, and hurts the American people."

Golden told Axios in an interview on Friday that, given divided control of Congress, it's "obvious that whatever resolution there is to this current situation, it's going to be bipartisan, so let's just skip the games."

The bipartisan House Problem Solvers Caucus has also proposed a bipartisan framework for raising the debt ceiling and cutting the deficit.

On the Senate side, Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) stands largely alone in calling for talks – going as far as to commend McCarthy's bill to raise the debt ceiling in exchange for slashing government spending, clawing back unspent COVID aid, canceling student debt relief and more.

"While I do not agree with everything proposed," he said in a statement on Thursday, "it remains the only bill moving through Congress that would prevent default and that cannot be ignored."

But Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.), the only other Senate Democrat besides Manchin up for reelection this year in a state that voted for Trump by double digits in 2020, told the Post: "The debt limit is nonnegotiable."

Inquiries to more than a dozen Senate Democratic offices, including Manchin's fellow centrists, yielded similar sentiments to Tester's.

The big picture: The vast majority of Democrats, including leadership in both chambers, are standing by Biden's refusal to accept anything less than a standalone debt ceiling increase without corresponding budget cuts.

“Our position will continue to be clear that the only responsible thing ... is to do what has consistently been done under Democratic presidents and Republican presidents, which is to ensure America pays her bills," House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) told reporters on Friday.

What we're watching: Several House Democrats who have called for talks are on McCarthy's CODEL to Israel, Jordan, Egypt and Italy this week, according to a list of the 16 attendees obtained by Axios.

An aide to one of the participants told Axios they think it is inevitable the Democrats on the trip will discuss the debt ceiling with McCarthy at some point.

In trying to bolster his case for Biden to come to the table, McCarthy has claimed multiple House Democrats have privately told him they believe it is wrong Biden is refusing to negotiate and that they're rooting for him.

The bottom line: Some Democrats holding out for a clean debt ceiling increase are far from confident that Republicans will blink if the U.S. reaches the fiscal cliff this summer without a resolution.

"Not only do I not know what to expect from the Republicans," said Rep. Kathy Manning (D-N.C.), "I think the Republicans don't know what to expect from the Republicans at this point."

Congressional Democrats splinter on debt ceiling strategy

At least one House Democrat got a call from Senate Democratic leadership.

Debt ceiling

Data: Gallup. Note: Approximately 1,000 people at least 15 years of age were polled per country.; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global approval of U.S. leadership slumped in year two of President Biden's tenure, according to a Gallup poll of 137 countries and territories.

The big picture: While Biden's international honeymoon may be over, the U.S. still polls far ahead of China and Russia.

The polling was largely conducted in mid-to-late 2022 — after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, and also after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Approval of Russian leadership fell almost across the board, though it remained strikingly high in a handful of African countries. In Mali, where Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have a presence, approval was 90%.

Germany is the less polarizing of the two Western powers included in the poll. While overall approval of German leadership declined from 2021, disapproval tends to be lower than for the U.S.

By the numbers: Median approval of U.S. leadership fell from 41% to 39% in Europe, and 52% to 36% in the Americas in Biden's second year.

Nonetheless, China only polls ahead of the U.S. in a handful of countries in either region — Russia unsurprisingly among them. Median approval of Chinese leadership is just 16% in Europe and 23% in the Americas.

In sub-Saharan Africa, approval of both U.S. (median of 59%) and Chinese (52%) leadership tends to be relatively high.

In Asia, the picture is more mixed. China polls far ahead in Pakistan and Iran, for example, whereas U.S. approval is much higher in India.

Snapshot: U.S. leadership is particularly popular in Kosovo (90%), Poland (80%), Nigeria (78%), Israel (65%) and the Philippines (62%), and particularly unpopular in Russia (4%), Iran (8%) and the Palestinian territories (13%).

Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group

Most countries prefer U.S. global leadership to China's

Approval of Russia plummeted after the invasion of Ukraine.

China

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

JPMorgan, and PNC Financial Services are among the large U.S. banks preparing a bid for embattled First Republic Bank, in a process the FDIC hopes to finalize over the weekend, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The scramble to both stabilize and find an owner for First Republic highlights the deep concern around the collapse of yet another U.S. bank, and the need to calm investors around the globe before Monday's market open.

Details: The FDIC had a data room open during the week for potential  bidders, and asked for indications of interest by Friday, the sources said. JPMorgan, and PNC are among the banks that remain interested, the sources added, with the FDIC hoping to accept final bids by Sunday. 

The Wall Street Journal and other news reports have reported the FDIC is also planning to take First Republic into receivership over the weekend.

According to one source familiar with the matter, such a move is expected to occur in conjunction with the sale process. The source added that the entire process is fluid, and could change throughout the weekend. 

JPMorgan, PNC, and First Republic declined to comment. The FDIC did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment. 

Of note: First Republic has lost 97% of its market value in a matter of weeks following the collapse of fellow regional bank, SVB. 

Backstory: First Republic on Monday reported that over $100 billion of deposits walked out the door in the first quarter, or a net of around $71 billion once accounting for emergency inflows from JPMorgan and other large banks.

JPMorgan and PNC were among the banks that contributed a $30 billion deposit into First Republic last month to stabilize the bank, a move that ultimately failed to stem the flow of deposits. 

Look ahead: In addition, another immediate question is if the FDIC will insure deposits at First Republic above the $250,000 threshold, as it did for those with cash in SVB. 

Go deeper: The rise and stunning fall of Silicon Valley Bank

the collapse of fellow regional bank, SVB

JPMorgan, PNC plan First Republic bids in FDIC-led process

The regional bank has lost 97% of its value since March.

Artificial intelligence is already affecting the 2024 election in ways that could reshape how campaigns are run and how voters are informed — or misled.

Why it matters: There are no rules for using AI in politics. Operatives in both parties are tapping the technology to identify donors and voters more efficiently — and to create photos and videos that reveal the potential risks of "deepfake" messages that could fool voters.

"If 2008 and 2012 were the Facebook elections, this will be the AI election — but it'll be massively more disruptive," said Tom Newhouse, vice president of digital marketing at Convergence Media, a Republican firm that uses AI. 

"I would be willing to bet that the 'October surprise' next year is from AI," he said, referring to the possibility of a game-changing event or revelation just before the November elections.

Zoom in: AI programs are being used for various tasks in just-launched 2024 campaigns, most notably for advertising but also for time-consuming research and office work. 

Immediately after President Biden announced his re-election campaign, the Republican National Committee released an AI-generated video with a series of fictitious images showing a dystopian, chaotic America under a Biden second term.

The video included scenes from an imaginary Biden and Kamala Harris victory party on election night that contorted their faces and applied ominous shadows throughout.

Digital firms retained by campaigns are using machine learning to figure out when's best to send text messages to voters, and enlisting AI to quickly identify soundbites from long videos — freeing up staffers and contractors for other work. 

One Democratic pollster told Axios he asked ChatGPT to write a first draft of a gubernatorial candidate's biography, a task that would have taken him about 45 minutes. It took ChatGPT just a few seconds. 

Beyond promotional material, AI is being used to improve fundraising efficiency by targeting prospective donors and voters with increasing specificity.

It allows an upstart campaign with few resources to create just as much content and reach specific voters just as effectively as larger campaigns with more resources.

In 2020 or 2016, for example, a 35-year-old male might have been targeted as part of a 250,000-person audience, using researchers hired to build databases filled with information from voter files, Newhouse notes.

Now, a campaign can zero in on that voter as one of 25,000 who may live in a certain Zip code and be a fan of the Washington Nationals or Duke Blue Devils, for example.

How it works: Consultants are using machine learning to sweep large amounts of data — such as a person's location, income and media habits — to find patterns that drive donations or support for a candidate, and create lists ranking likely supporters. 

Democrats who sometimes watch Fox News make great targets for political campaigns, Sterling Data Company, a Democratic firm working with Akkio's AI platform, has found. Sterling figures that's because it takes a certain dedication to Democratic policies to venture to Fox for an opposing view. 

AI is great for "a large candidate — that could be a presidential candidate or anyone who's raising money from a lot more people," says Jonathon Reilly, co-founder and COO of Akkio. "The larger your sorting problem, the more leverage you'll get out of using AI."

Yes, but: AI technology also can be used to flood voters with disinformation.

It can create AI-generated audio, robocalls, or text messages about a candidate and disperse them to millions in an instant.

After the RNC ad ran last Tuesday, the White House responded to several queries about whether the material featuring Biden was real or fake. 

Thought bubble: The disinformation concern with AI extends beyond fake video images, Axios' chief tech correspondent Ina Fried writes:

AI can be used to dub over a speech to twist a candidate's words.

It's a practice that has been used for humor, but incendiary words inserted into an AI-generated video that's made to look as if the candidate actually said them could muddy the waters between fact and fiction. 

And the mere existence of deep-fake technology could be used by politicians to suggest that a piece of genuine but unflattering video is fake.

a video of a fictitious dystopian Biden second term

How AI is already changing the 2024 election

It could reshape how campaigns are run and how voters are informed — or misled.

Illustration of a vote button stacked atop pixelated buttons

Artificial intelligence

Data: 247Sports Composite Rankings, NFL; Note: Players who were dismissed from their teams or did not declare for the draft were omitted from analysis; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

Charted: How top college football recruits do in the NFL draft

29% of the five-star recruits drafted between 2015-2022 were first-round picks.

Axios

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