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National

Data: Gallup. Note: Approximately 1,000 people at least 15 years of age were polled per country.; Chart: Axios Visuals

Global approval of U.S. leadership slumped in year two of President Biden's tenure, according to a Gallup poll of 137 countries and territories.

The big picture: While Biden's international honeymoon may be over, the U.S. still polls far ahead of China and Russia.

The polling was largely conducted in mid-to-late 2022 — after the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Kabul, and also after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Approval of Russian leadership fell almost across the board, though it remained strikingly high in a handful of African countries. In Mali, where Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group have a presence, approval was 90%.

Germany is the less polarizing of the two Western powers included in the poll. While overall approval of German leadership declined from 2021, disapproval tends to be lower than for the U.S.

By the numbers: Median approval of U.S. leadership fell from 41% to 39% in Europe, and 52% to 36% in the Americas in Biden's second year.

Nonetheless, China only polls ahead of the U.S. in a handful of countries in either region — Russia unsurprisingly among them. Median approval of Chinese leadership is just 16% in Europe and 23% in the Americas.

In sub-Saharan Africa, approval of both U.S. (median of 59%) and Chinese (52%) leadership tends to be relatively high.

In Asia, the picture is more mixed. China polls far ahead in Pakistan and Iran, for example, whereas U.S. approval is much higher in India.

Snapshot: U.S. leadership is particularly popular in Kosovo (90%), Poland (80%), Nigeria (78%), Israel (65%) and the Philippines (62%), and particularly unpopular in Russia (4%), Iran (8%) and the Palestinian territories (13%).

Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group

Most countries prefer U.S. global leadership to China's

Approval of Russia plummeted after the invasion of Ukraine.

China

World

JPMorgan, and PNC Financial Services are among the large U.S. banks preparing a bid for embattled First Republic Bank, in a process the FDIC hopes to finalize over the weekend, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Why it matters: The scramble to both stabilize and find an owner for First Republic highlights the deep concern around the collapse of yet another U.S. bank, and the need to calm investors around the globe before Monday's market open.

Details: The FDIC had a data room open during the week for potential  bidders, and asked for indications of interest by Friday, the sources said. JPMorgan, and PNC are among the banks that remain interested, the sources added, with the FDIC hoping to accept final bids by Sunday. 

The Wall Street Journal and other news reports have reported the FDIC is also planning to take First Republic into receivership over the weekend.

According to one source familiar with the matter, such a move is expected to occur in conjunction with the sale process. The source added that the entire process is fluid, and could change throughout the weekend. 

JPMorgan, PNC, and First Republic declined to comment. The FDIC did not immediately respond to a request seeking comment. 

Of note: First Republic has lost 97% of its market value in a matter of weeks following the collapse of fellow regional bank, SVB. 

Backstory: First Republic on Monday reported that over $100 billion of deposits walked out the door in the first quarter, or a net of around $71 billion once accounting for emergency inflows from JPMorgan and other large banks.

JPMorgan and PNC were among the banks that contributed a $30 billion deposit into First Republic last month to stabilize the bank, a move that ultimately failed to stem the flow of deposits. 

Look ahead: In addition, another immediate question is if the FDIC will insure deposits at First Republic above the $250,000 threshold, as it did for those with cash in SVB. 

Go deeper: The rise and stunning fall of Silicon Valley Bank

the collapse of fellow regional bank, SVB

JPMorgan, PNC plan First Republic bids in FDIC-led process

The regional bank has lost 97% of its value since March.

Banking

Dealmaking

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Artificial intelligence is already affecting the 2024 election in ways that could reshape how campaigns are run and how voters are informed — or misled.

Why it matters: There are no rules for using AI in politics. Operatives in both parties are tapping the technology to identify donors and voters more efficiently — and to create photos and videos that reveal the potential risks of "deepfake" messages that could fool voters.

"If 2008 and 2012 were the Facebook elections, this will be the AI election — but it'll be massively more disruptive," said Tom Newhouse, vice president of digital marketing at Convergence Media, a Republican firm that uses AI. 

"I would be willing to bet that the 'October surprise' next year is from AI," he said, referring to the possibility of a game-changing event or revelation just before the November elections.

Zoom in: AI programs are being used for various tasks in just-launched 2024 campaigns, most notably for advertising but also for time-consuming research and office work. 

Immediately after President Biden announced his re-election campaign, the Republican National Committee released an AI-generated video with a series of fictitious images showing a dystopian, chaotic America under a Biden second term.

The video included scenes from an imaginary Biden and Kamala Harris victory party on election night that contorted their faces and applied ominous shadows throughout.

Digital firms retained by campaigns are using machine learning to figure out when's best to send text messages to voters, and enlisting AI to quickly identify soundbites from long videos — freeing up staffers and contractors for other work. 

One Democratic pollster told Axios he asked ChatGPT to write a first draft of a gubernatorial candidate's biography, a task that would have taken him about 45 minutes. It took ChatGPT just a few seconds. 

Beyond promotional material, AI is being used to improve fundraising efficiency by targeting prospective donors and voters with increasing specificity.

It allows an upstart campaign with few resources to create just as much content and reach specific voters just as effectively as larger campaigns with more resources.

In 2020 or 2016, for example, a 35-year-old male might have been targeted as part of a 250,000-person audience, using researchers hired to build databases filled with information from voter files, Newhouse notes.

Now, a campaign can zero in on that voter as one of 25,000 who may live in a certain Zip code and be a fan of the Washington Nationals or Duke Blue Devils, for example.

How it works: Consultants are using machine learning to sweep large amounts of data — such as a person's location, income and media habits — to find patterns that drive donations or support for a candidate, and create lists ranking likely supporters. 

Democrats who sometimes watch Fox News make great targets for political campaigns, Sterling Data Company, a Democratic firm working with Akkio's AI platform, has found. Sterling figures that's because it takes a certain dedication to Democratic policies to venture to Fox for an opposing view. 

AI is great for "a large candidate — that could be a presidential candidate or anyone who's raising money from a lot more people," says Jonathon Reilly, co-founder and COO of Akkio. "The larger your sorting problem, the more leverage you'll get out of using AI."

Yes, but: AI technology also can be used to flood voters with disinformation.

It can create AI-generated audio, robocalls, or text messages about a candidate and disperse them to millions in an instant.

After the RNC ad ran last Tuesday, the White House responded to several queries about whether the material featuring Biden was real or fake. 

Thought bubble: The disinformation concern with AI extends beyond fake video images, Axios' chief tech correspondent Ina Fried writes:

AI can be used to dub over a speech to twist a candidate's words.

It's a practice that has been used for humor, but incendiary words inserted into an AI-generated video that's made to look as if the candidate actually said them could muddy the waters between fact and fiction. 

And the mere existence of deep-fake technology could be used by politicians to suggest that a piece of genuine but unflattering video is fake.

a video of a fictitious dystopian Biden second term

How AI is already changing the 2024 election

It could reshape how campaigns are run and how voters are informed — or misled.

Illustration of a vote button stacked atop pixelated buttons

Artificial intelligence

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Data: 247Sports Composite Rankings, NFL; Note: Players who were dismissed from their teams or did not declare for the draft were omitted from analysis; Chart: Thomas Oide/Axios

Eleven college football players who started their careers as five-star recruits — viewed by experts as the best high schoolers in the country — were picked in the first round of this year's NFL Draft.

The big picture: 29% of the five-star recruits drafted between 2015-2022 were first-round picks, according to an Axios analysis of the 247Sports composite rankings.

58% of the five-star recruits in the analysis were picked in the first three rounds.

State of play: Six of the past eight No. 1 overall picks were five-star recruits: Jameis Winston (2015), Myles Garrett (2017), Kyler Murray (2019), Trevor Lawrence (2021), Travon Walker (2022) and Bryce Young (2023).

Between the lines: Five-star recruits are the high school players that talent evaluators believe are the top football talents.

The 247Sports composite rankings combine evaluations from major recruiting sites into a single rating, according to the site's explanation.

Zoom in: Here's the full list of former five-stars who were drafted in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft on Thursday:

Bryce Young, Alabama — selected No. 1 overall by the Carolina Panthers. 

Will Anderson Jr., Alabama — selected No. 3 by the Houston Texans

Paris Johnson Jr., Ohio State — selected No. 6 by the Arizona Cardinals

Bijan Robinson, Texas — selected No. 8 by the Atlanta Falcons

Jalen Carter, Georgia — selected No. 9 by the Philadelphia Eagles

Darnell Wright, Tennessee — selected No. 10 by the Chicago Bears

Broderick Jones, Georgia — selected No. 14 by the Pittsburgh Steelers

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State — selected No. 20 by the Seattle Seahawks

Myles Murphy, Clemson — selected No. 28 by the Cincinnati Bengals

Bryan Bresee, Clemson — selected No. 29 by the New Orleans Saints

Nolan Smith, Georgia — selected No. 30 by the Philadelphia Eagles

247Sports site's explanation of its rankings

Charted: How top college football recruits do in the NFL draft

29% of the five-star recruits drafted between 2015-2022 were first-round picks.

National Football League (NFL)

Bryce Young poses with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected first overall by the Carolina Panthers during the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

Sports

Denver

Axios Denver

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) on Friday signed into law four major gun measures designed to make it harder to obtain firearms.

Why it matters: The new laws follow multiple high-profile shootings in Colorado in recent months, and represent the latest in a series of recent actions by states to restrict firearm access as gun violence grows.

Driving the news: The legislation expands Colorado's existing "red flag" law to allow educators, health care professionals, and district attorneys request the seizure of a person's firearms under an extreme risk protection order.

The other measures raise the minimum age to buy firearms from 18 to 21, impose a three-day waiting period on the purchase of guns, and make it easier to sue gun and ammunition manufacturers, reversing some of the strongest protections in the nation. 

The latest actions build on three measures Polis signed a year ago to tighten gun access.

What they're saying: "Today, Colorado has enacted four common-sense gun reforms, including elimination of some of the barriers to holding gun manufacturers and dealers accountable," White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Twitter.

"Thank you, Colorado leaders and gun violence survivors, for this important step forward," she added.

Of note: Not all Democratic lawmakers supported the legislation, and some questioned their legality.

Moments after the bill signings, Rocky Mountain Gun Owners, a Second Amendment advocacy group, filed two lawsuits challenging the constitutionality of the new waiting period and age requirement.

Context: Colorado's dark history of mass shootings loomed over this year's debate. And the Democratic-controlled legislature made gun restrictions a priority after the November shooting at Club Q in Colorado Springs that left five dead and raised questions about the state's existing "red flag" law.

The legislation took on added import after a series of shootings involving  East High School students.

The big picture: Colorado's efforts to reduce gun violence are part of a broader effort in states to take action where the federal government has not.

Earlier this week, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) signed into law a ban on the sale of AR-15s and other semi-automatic rifles, making it the 10th state to do so.

In March alone, at least 57 people were killed in 38 mass shootings nationwide, per data from the Gun Violence Archive.

Colorado governor signs 4 major gun bills, drawing White House applause

The gun measures follow high-profile shootings in the state recently.

Axios

Saturday's top stories

Most countries prefer U.S. global leadership to China's

JPMorgan, PNC plan First Republic bids in FDIC-led process

How AI is already changing the 2024 election

Charted: How top college football recruits do in the NFL draft

Colorado governor signs 4 major gun bills, drawing White House applause

Ransomware is a forever problem now

Russian airstrikes kill at least 25 across Ukraine

Fed will consider tougher banking rules after SVB failure

Biden's age trap: Risks of running at 80

Abortion bans fail to pass in 2 conservative states