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National

There's a gaping divide in the Democratic Party between institutional public opinion — party leaders, lawmakers, donors, consultants — and the actual voters who ultimately decide elections, recent polling shows.

Why it matters: President Biden has all but erased internal Democratic Party criticism. But only three postwar presidents had lower approval ratings than Biden at this point in their presidency.

Biden's job approval rating is 43%, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average.

Nearly half (45%) of Americans had no confidence in Biden's ability to make the right decisions for the country's future, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll just before the State of the Union.

Only 16% of respondents in the poll said they were better off financially than when Biden became president — compared to 41% who said they were worse off.

Zoom in: Doubts about Biden's age (80) have all but vanished from institutional Democrats' public conversation. The DNC has neutralized the influence of Iowa and New Hampshire, where an intraparty rebellion could have started. 

Even once-skeptical progressives, like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) and Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), have jumped on the Biden bandwagon — even though most of their agenda didn't pass with Democratic majorities in Congress.

Zoom out: Public perception of the economy's health will be a major factor in Biden's political standing. Biden used his SOTU address to tout the economy's resilience — pointing to record-low unemployment and claiming the fastest economic growth in 40 years.

But worries about persistent inflation persist. Just 20% of Americans rated the economy as "excellent" or "good" in last week's Fox News poll. 

Reality check: Biden's biggest ally is the unpopularity of the GOP opposition — particularly former President Trump. 

Democrats overperformed in last year's midterms: Whatever hesitations voters held toward Biden, Republican candidates were viewed as too extreme.

The divisions among Republicans over spending cuts and changes to Social Security and Medicare, highlighted in the GOP's heated response to Biden's address, will also be a useful foil for the White House in making the next election a choice more than a referendum.

The bottom line: The vibes in Washington are growing bullish on Biden's re-election prospects. But polling shows voters aren't optimistic about their own economic futures. And a majority of Democrats want a new standard-bearer for 2024. 

Dems' 2024 disconnect

Only three postwar presidents had lower approval ratings than Biden at this point in their presidency.

Photo illustration: Shoshana Gordon/Axios. Photo: Jacquelyn Martin/AP/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Joe Biden

Elections 2024

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Israeli President Isaac Herzog in a speech to the nation on Sunday laid out a proposal for solving the constitutional crisis around Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to weaken the Supreme Court and called on the government to suspend the legislation process and enter talks on judicial reforms that will garner broad consensus.

Why it matters: Netanyahu's judicial overhaul plan has prompted mass protests in Israel and concerns from the Biden administration about what it could mean for the U.S. ally's democracy. 

The first vote in the Knesset legislative committee on the first part of the judicial plan is expected on Monday. After the voting starts, it will be much harder to stop the legislative process.

A national strike has also been called for Monday by the organizers of the protests against the judicial plan. The strike includes a protest in front of the Israeli parliament. 

Catch up quick: Netanyahu's government — the most right-wing in the country's history — presented its judicial overhaul plan just weeks after taking office.

The plan includes passing a law that would allow the governing coalition to override Supreme Court rulings by a simple majority of 61 votes in the 120-member Knesset. That would significantly limit the Supreme Court’s ability to review laws and strike them down.

It also seeks to end the Supreme Court's ability to revoke administrative decisions by the government on the grounds of "reasonability," significantly decreasing judicial oversight. And it envisions giving the government and the coalition in parliament absolute control over appointing judges.

The plan has deepened political divisions inside Israel and garnered rare statements from U.S. officials, who typically avoid weighing in on Israeli domestic issues.  U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his trip to the region this month urged Netanyahu to build a broad consensus around his plan. 

What they're saying: Herzog on Sunday warned that the confrontation in Israeli society around Netanyahu’s plan could lead to violence.

"We are not in a political debate anymore. We are on the brink of a social and constitutional collapse. The powder keg is about to explode," Herzog said.

The Israeli president said the calls for judicial reform are justified but stressed the government’s current plan “raises deep concerns for potential negative implications on Israel’s democratic foundations."

He said that intelligence reports he has recently read showed how Israel’s enemies are watching the developments with delight. “Is there a bigger warning sign than this?" Herzog asked.

Herzog presented five principles as a basis for immediate negotiations among the government, the opposition and the president of the Supreme Court. The principles include: 

Upgrading the constitutional status of basic laws and the way they are passed and excluding them from judicial oversight.

Reaching a broad consensus through negotiations on the majority needed for the Supreme Court to strike down laws and the majority needed for the Knesset to override rulings of the high court. 

Significantly increasing the number of judges so that the citizens get better service from the judicial system.

Changing the system of appointing judges in a way that will weaken the power the Supreme Court judges have today but won’t give the government a majority to appoint judges.

Reaching a consensus through negotiations on how to define the use of the “reasonability cause” by the Supreme Court, which allows it to strike down administrative decisions of the executive branch.

Herzog urged the minister of justice, the chairman of the Knesset legislative committee and the president of the Supreme Court to enter immediate negotiations on the basis of his principles and under his auspices.

Herzog also called on the coalition to suspend the legislative process, not hold votes on the judicial plan on Monday and Wednesday as planned and start negotiating instead.

Shortly after Herzog's speech, Justice Minister Yariv Levin rejected Herzog's calls and said he wouldn't suspend the votes planned for Monday. Levin added that while Herzog's proposal has positive elements, there is no justification for linking the legislative process to the dialogue on the judicial plan.

Many in the Israeli opposition, including former Prime Minister Yair Lapid and former Defense Minister Benny Gantz, accepted Herzog's proposal.

The big picture: President Biden weighed in on Netanyahu’s judicial plan for the first time in a short statement he gave to the New York Times published earlier Sunday.

It is very unusual for Biden or any U.S. president to intervene in the domestic legislation of a close ally, but his comments showed the concerns his administration has over Netanyahu’s plan.

”The genius of American democracy and Israeli democracy is that they are both built on strong institutions, on checks and balances, on an independent judiciary. Building consensus for fundamental changes is really important to ensure that the people buy into them so they can be sustained," Biden said.

Tom Nides, the U.S. ambassador to Israel, praised Herzog's speech on Sunday on Twitter. 

Go deeper: Blinken's civics lesson for Netanyahu

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details throughout. 

Israeli president: "Powder keg about to explode" over judicial overhaul plan

President Isaac Herzog presented a five-point plan to start talks on judicial reforms that he hopes will garner broad consensus.

Israeli President Yitzhak Herzog speaks during the swearing in ceremony of the new Israeli governmentt at the Knesset (Israeli parliament) in Jerusalem, on November 15, 2022

Israeli President Isaac Herzog speaks during the swearing-in ceremony of the new Israeli government at the Knesset in Jerusalem, on Nov. 15, 2022. Photo: Abir Sultan/AFP via Getty Images

Israel

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

This Week With George Stephanopoulos-9 04 09 Am - 9 05 26 Am-2023-02-12

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) acknowledged it was "wild" the U.S. didn't know about the Chinese government's use of balloons "until a few months ago," during an interview on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday.

Catch up quick: Last week, the U.S. shot down a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon that had traversed the U.S. and is believed to have been capable of collecting communications.

Pentagon officials have said that similar balloons crossed into U.S. airspace briefly at least three times during the Trump administration.

The State Department spokesperson said China has flown similar surveillance balloons over more than 40 countries across five continents in the past.

The U.S. on Friday shot down a "high-altitude" object that violated its airspace above territorial waters near Alaska, and on Saturday, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that an unidentified object had been shot down in his country's airspace.

Little is known about the origins of the latter two objects and it is not clear whether they were in any way connected to the first.

State of play: The U.S. military and intelligence are "focused like a laser" on gathering more information about the balloons, Schumer said.

Asked by host George Stephanopoulos whether the surveillance balloon program would need to be shut down, Schumer agreed that the Chinese government would likely need to "get rid of it."

“I think the Chinese were humiliated. I think the Chinese were caught lying, and it's a real step back for them," Schumer said.

Schumer added that he believed Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) was looking into why it took so long for the U.S. military and intelligence to know about the balloons and said he supported Congress looking into the matter.

The big picture: Tester told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday that while the military likely had "some" awareness of the use of balloons, Congress needs to have a debate about whether that awareness was at a sufficient level.

Going forward, the U.S. needs to have a specific plan for how to deal with such objects, "so we know exactly what's going to happen when these balloons come in and their threat is assessed," Tester said.

Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, told the same program Sunday that the flight of the suspected surveillance balloon was clearly intentional, calling it an "act of belligerence."

"It was done with provocation to gather intelligence data and collect intelligence on our three major nuclear sites in this country. Why? Because they're looking at what is our capability in the event of a possible future conflict in Taiwan. They're really assessing what we have in this country," McCaul said.

Schumer: "It is wild" U.S. didn't know about China's balloon program earlier

Sen. Schumer said the U.S. military and intelligence are "focused like a laser" on gathering more information about the balloons.

China

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) emphasized the importance of maintaining a "thorough and robust" line of communication between the U.S. and China in light of recent events during an interview on Fox News Channel's "Cavuto Live" on Saturday.

The big picture: “I haven’t been given any more information than you,” Kaine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said of the more recent object downed by the U.S., noting that "we don't know what the origin of this one."

However, Kaine called the suspected surveillance balloon an "ill-conceived and ill-timed and incompetent move" by China, given that it scuttled an upcoming visit to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

"China is a competitor, certainly, but in some areas like this they’re also an adversary," Kaine said, adding that there can be areas in which the U.S. and China work together, such as public health or humanitarian relief efforts.

Kaine noted that "one of the most disturbing pieces of news I heard this week" was that when Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin attempted to call his Chinese counterpart about the suspected surveillance balloon, his call went unanswered.

What they're saying: “You need to keep a line of communications open between the two most powerful nations in the world,” Kaine said. 

Kaine invoked a comparison to the Cold War, in which the U.S. and Soviet Union maintained regular communication. “If you have that, you can avoid unnecessary or accidental escalation.”

“We have to figure out a way to make sure that, as challenging as the relationship is, the communication is thorough and robust so we don’t accidentally have a miscalculation.”

Tim Kaine stresses importance of U.S.-China communication after spy balloon incident

“You need to keep a line of communications open between the two most powerful nations in the world."

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) speaks during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee 

Sen. Tim Kaine speaks during a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing in December 2021. Photo: Alex Brandon-Pool/Getty Images

The Super Bowl is America's biggest collective party. And whether you're there for the football game, the halftime show, or the commercials, it's must-see TV. Yet the NFL makes us conduct this ritual at the most inconvenient time imaginable. On a school night.

The big picture: A record 18.8 million workers are predicted to no-show Monday, the day after the Super Bowl. And some schools in Philadelphia, anticipating a long night (and perhaps a rough morning) for Eagles-loving households, are delaying Monday classes.

A massive part of its appeal — indeed, what makes the Super Bowl the Super Bowl — is the idea of getting together with friends, eating copious amounts of unhealthy food, and letting the kids run loose.

Quick take: The NFL still believes that it needs to finesse the Super Bowl into a traditionally conducive prime-time ratings slot — even though many of the 200 million people that will watch it actually find the Sunday night time slot to be a bummer.

Driving the news: A “Change Super Bowl 58 to Saturday" campaign on change.org has around 145,000 signatures, around 5,000 away from becoming one of the top signed campaigns on the platform.

Lawmakers in Tennessee have introduced a bill to make the Monday after the game an official state holiday.

And a simple "Why is the Super Bowl..." search in Google auto-fills to "... on Sunday."

What they're saying: "The reason we haven't [moved the game to Saturday] in the past is simply just from an audience standpoint," NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said in a 2018 interview on the Kyle Brandt Football Experience.

 "The audiences on Sunday night are so much larger. Fans want to have the best opportunity to be able to see the game and we want to give that to them, so Sunday night is a better night."

What we're watching: Don't hold your breath for that Super Bowl Saturday party anytime soon.

There isn't much incentive for the TV networks that pay billions to air football to move the Super Bowl to Saturday night, long viewed as a graveyard for underperforming shows, Axios Pro Media Deals co-author Tim Baysinger writes.

At the end of the day, the NFL will follow their lead.

Why we can't have Super Bowl Saturday

The biggest game day in professional sports is a scheduling headache.

Illustration of a sad football with the laces making a frowning mouth. 

Super Bowl

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

President Biden’s baiting of Republican hecklers wasn't just a signature moment in his State of the Union speech — it was in line with a series of partisan stunts that have marked the new Congress.

Why it matters: From moves aimed at tweaking political foes to spats that have challenged the House's decorum, members of both parties have jumped on opportunities to score political points and try to make things awkward for the other side. 

Zoom in: House Republicans, in charge for the first time in four years, are leading the parade of antics. They seem especially determined to put Democrats in awkward positions while seeking leverage in upcoming talks over the debt ceiling and government funding.

At an organizing meeting for the Natural Resources Committee, a GOP push to allow members to carry guns in meetings led to a heated party-line debate. Members later argued on Twitter over Republicans who sported assault rifle lapel pins.

How partisan warfare is consuming the new Congress

Sniping over symbolic issues is a hallmark of the House.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Dems' 2024 disconnect

Israeli president: "Powder keg about to explode" over judicial overhaul plan

Schumer: "It is wild" U.S. didn't know about China's balloon program earlier

Tim Kaine stresses importance of U.S.-China communication after spy balloon incident

Why we can't have Super Bowl Saturday

How partisan warfare is consuming the new Congress

Everything we know about the gas leak in the L.A.-Las Vegas pipeline

U.S. blacklists 6 Chinese entities it says are linked to balloon program

Search and rescue efforts nearing end in Turkey, U.N. liaison says

TikTok drama underscores growing U.S.-China divide

Dogma-defying biology

The big-money effort in the GOP to stop Trump