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National

In the days leading up to the midterm elections, several gun control groups have seen a spike in their spending as part of a larger effort to elect candidates that will back their policies, the Associated Press reports.

Why it matters: The desire for policy change is finally backed by big money. U.S. gun-control groups have outspent gun-rights groups for the midterm elections by 40%, unraveling the NRA's longstanding dominance in spending on gun politics. 

Between the lines: The shift has largely been a result of several high-profile mass shootings, including those in Las Vegas, Parkland, and most recently a Pittsburgh synagogue. The NRA's 2018 rebranding issue has also been a contributing factor.

The drop in the NRA's political spending is a rare shift, one that hasn't occurred in 20 years, according to data from the Federal Election Commission: 

The NRA spent $11 million for midterm races this year, nearly half of what gun-control groups spent, per the same data.

Meanwhile Everytown for Gun Safety, a group founded by former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, has pledged to dedicate $30 million to the 2018 midterms.

After the Pittsburgh shooting, Everytown bought an additional $700,000 in advertisements targeting Rep. Mike Coffman (R-Colo.).

The PAC for former Rep. Gabby Giffords, who was wounded in a shooting in 2011, is spending nearly $5 million.

In October, Giffords' PAC spent  $1.3 million on an ad blasting Rep. Jason Lewis (R-Minn.) for accepting "corporate gun lobby money" from the NRA. 

Mike Bloomberg alone is spending $120 million on the midterms, with a portion of the total going toward gun control groups in an effort to match or surpass the NRA's spending. 

What to watch: The NRA could still throw in more money last-minute. The final numbers will come out after the election. 

Exclusive poll ... Rare consensus across parties: No 3D-printed guns

Correction: An earlier version of this story labeled former Rep. Gabby Giffords as Sen. Gabby Giffords. 

How NRA spending shows the shifting midterms landscape

The desire for policy change is finally backed by big money.

Michael Bloomberg behind a podium on stage

Michael Bloomberg. Photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images. 

Politics

Gun control

Trump on birthright citizenship

Trump uses DACA to defend his planned birthright citizenship order

"If [Obama] can do DACA, we can do this by executive order.”

Immigration

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Robert Bowers, who killed 11 people during a mass shooting at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh on Saturday, has been indicted by a federal grand jury on 44 counts, including hate crimes.

The bottom line: He faces a maximum possible sentence of the death penalty or life in prison.

Pittsburgh shooter indicted on 44 counts, including hate crimes

He faces a maximum sentence of life in prison or the death penalty.

Photo: Matthew Hatcher/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

U.S. News

Mass shootings

Dan speaks with Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff, who has been the driving force behind a ballot initiative in San Francisco that would increase corporate taxes to help alleviate homelessness. 

If approved, this could become a model for other cities, particularly ones whose booming tech industries have helped create unaffordable housing environments. But the outcome is anything but certain, and the ballot measure has split a San Francisco tech community that usually sees eye-to-eye on political matters.

Go deeper: Big tech titans battle over homelessness

Podcast: Tech leaders battle over San Francisco homelessness

Dan speaks with Marc Benioff about Proposition C, which has split Bay Area tech leaders.

Business

Pro Rata Podcast

Technology

Axios Re:Cap

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Podcasts

Five years from now, Germany's Angela Merkel and the U.K.'s Theresa May will have faded from the political scene, while Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan and China's Xi Jinping will continue to dominate domestically and shape geopolitics.

The big picture: That's according to Bloomberg's World Leaders’ Political Health Check, which shows France's Emmanuel Macron and potentially Saudi Arabia's Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) slipping over the past six months. Other prominent world leaders have held steady, with President Trump projected to carry on through 2024.

Most vulnerable: South Africa's Cyril Ramaphosa and Argentina's Mauricio Macri are in tough positions heading into elections next year, while May faces constant speculation about her job security an uphill battle to get a Brexit deal by March.

Writing on the wall: Japan's Shinzo Abe is expected to step down in 2021. Merkel has now said she'll do the same — though she might not last that long.

Hard to gauge: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu could end up in jail, but Bloomberg's timeline suggests it's more likely he'll serve another term. Nigeria's Muhammadu Buhari is in ill health but nonetheless favored to win another term next year. The verdict for Macron is that he's "unlikely to win re-election" in 2022 if his popularity doesn't improve.

Not leaving yet: The authors give Trump a strong chance of re-election. They also find it likely that Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro will serve at least through 2024 — though that's far from guaranteed. Iran's Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 79, is "likely to be in power until he dies," and their calculations "suggest he’ll live another nine years."

Strongmen sticking around: Erdogan is likely to dominate Turkish politics through 2028, or even beyond, while Russia's Vladimir Putin is term limited but unlikely to simply fade away after 2024. Xi could be "leader for life."

Young autocrats with long futures: North Korea's Kim Jong-un is in his mid-30s. MBS' iron grip might be slipping, but at just 33 there's every chance he'll be in power for decades.

Why Xi and Putin think "the West is in free fall"

Putin's strongman choices shrink Russia's future

How long the world's most powerful leaders are likely to last

The strongmen are likely to stick around.

Gang's all here at last year's G-20. They won't be forever. Photo: Kay Nietfeld/AFP/Getty Images

World

Xi Jinping

China

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Vice President Mike Pence is holding 11 campaign events in 9 different states over the final 6 days before the midterm elections, per a copy of his schedule obtained by Axios.

Why it matters: His schedule, detailed below, shows he's focused on high-profile Senate and gubernatorial races — with less attention on the House. That's consistent with what top operatives have told Axios: They expect the House to flip to Democrats and Republicans to gain seats in the Senate. 

Pence's midterm schedule, which includes rallies, fundraisers and political events: 

Oct. 31: Mansfield, Ohio, for Rep. Troy Balderson, Senate candidate Jim Renacci, gubernatorial candidate Mike DeWine, and Rep. Bob Gibbs.

Nov. 1:  Dalton, August and Savannah — all in Georgia, and all for Brian Kemp's gubernatorial bid.

Nov. 2: Kansas City, Missouri, for Senate candidate Josh Hawley, gubernatorial candidate Kris Kobach, Vicky Hartzler (MO-04), Kevin Yoder (KS-03), Steve Watkins (KS-02) and Sam Graves (MO-6). He's also going to Indianapolis, Indiana, for Senate candidate Mike Braun and Greg Pence for House.

Nov. 3: Pensacola, Florida, for Senate candidate Rick Scott and gubernatorial candidate Ron DeSantis, and Hudson, Wisconsin, for gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker and Senate candidate Leah Vukmir.

Nov. 4: Chattanooga, Tennessee, for Senate candidate Marsha Blackburn.

Nov. 5: Kalispell, Montana, for Senate candidate Matt Rosendale, and an additional stop in a different state could happen, based on internal White House planning.

Between the lines: Pence will join Trump at his midterm rallies in Indiana, Florida and Tennessee. But the two will divide and conquer on the eve of the election, with Pence ending his midterm rally blitz in Montana — one of the most hotly contested Senate seats, with Matt Rosendale facing Democratic Sen. Jon Tester. 

What they're saying: "The Vice President will be supporting Senate, House and down ballot Republicans throughout his travel this week, weekend, and next week," said Alyssa Farah, a spokeswoman for Pence. 

The other side: While Trump and Pence are helping in races for Senate and governor, Donald Trump Jr. is hitting the campaign trail for various House candidates in the Midwest in the final days before the election.

Democrats aren't running the table in the midterms

Update: When Axios approached the VP's office and provided visibility of the schedule we were about to publish, they only provided Troy Balderson as an example of a House candidate Pence was campaigning for. After this story was published, the VP's office provided us additional House candidates and we have updated the story accordingly.

Pence's midterm rally schedule focuses on Senate and governor's races

Pence introducing Trump at a rally. Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

2018 midterm elections

Gen. Scott Miller, the new U.S. commander in Afghanistan, told NBC News’ Courtney Kube that "now is the time to start working through" the political process of ending the war in Afghanistan.

Why it matters: Gen. Miller says U.S. troops have been "more in an offensive mindset" since he took over two months ago, a change prompted by heavy casualties. But he says the U.S. acknowledges it can't win with force: "My assessment is the Taliban also realizes they cannot win militarily. So if you realize you can't win militarily at some point, fighting is just, people start asking why. So you do not necessarily wait us out, but I think now is the time to start working through the political piece of this conflict."

Go deeper: 17 years later, Americans tend to consider Afghanistan a failure.

U.S. commander says it's time for a political solution in Afghanistan

"If you realize you can't win militarily... fighting is just, people start asking why"

U.S. soldier salutes, behind a silhouette of a gun.

Afghanistan

The Turkish prosecutor investigating the death of Jamal Khashoggi said Wednesday that the journalist was strangled and dismembered during a pre-planned attack inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul — the Turkish government's first official account explaining how Khashoggi was murdered.

The big picture: A few questions remain about Khashoggi's murder, including the whereabouts of his remains and the identity of a "local collaborator" who helped the Saudis involved in the operation dispose of the evidence. The Saudi government, which recently changed its story and admitted Khashoggi's death "appeared to have been premeditated," has said the 18 men detained in connection with the incident will be tried in Saudi Arabia, not in Istanbul as Turkish authorities have requested.

Turkey confirms Khashoggi was strangled, dismembered in consulate

Turkey's investigation determined it was a premeditated attack.

Saudi Arabian flag waving on the Saudi consulate building in Istanbul. Photo: Serhat Cagdas/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Jamal Khashoggi

President Trump said on Twitter Wednesday that birthright citizenship "will be ended one way or the other," after telling "Axios on HBO" that he plans to issue an executive order that would attempt to remove the right.

"So-called Birthright Citizenship, which costs our Country billions of dollars and is very unfair to our citizens, will be ended one way or the other. It is not covered by the 14th Amendment because of the words 'subject to the jurisdiction thereof.' Many legal scholars agree. ... Harry Reid was right in 1993, before he and the Democrats went insane and started with the Open Borders (which brings massive Crime) 'stuff.' Don’t forget the nasty term Anchor Babies. I will keep our Country safe. This case will be settled by the United States Supreme Court! The World is using our laws to our detriment. They laugh at the Stupidity they see!" 

Sen. Harry Reid responded in a statement Wednesday afternoon.

In 1993, around the time Donald Trump was gobbling up tax-free inheritance money from his wealthy father and driving several companies into bankruptcy, I made a mistake. After I proposed that awful bill, my wife Landry immediately sat me down and said, "Harry, what are you doing, don't you know that my father is an immigrant?" She set me straight. And in my 36 years in Washington, there is no more valuable lesson I learned than the strength and power of immigrants and no issue I worked harder on than fixing our broken immigration system. I had the privilege of learning from heroes like Astrid Silva who came to this nation as a little girl and has emerged as a powerful leader. Immigrants are the lifeblood of our nation. They are our power and our strength. This president wants to destroy not build, to stoke hatred instead of unify. He can tweet whatever he wants while he sits around watching TV, but he is profoundly wrong.

Trump doubles down on terminating birthright citizenship

"[It] will be ended one way or the other..."

Donald Trump

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis both separately called for a cease-fire in Yemen's civil war on Tuesday night. 

The big picture: Both voiced continued U.S. support for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen last month, but the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul has seriously disrupted the U.S.-Saudi relationship. And Yemen is facing the world's worst ongoing humanitarian crisis as a result of the war.

Mattis, who spoke at the U.S. Institute of Peace, via CNN: "We've got to move toward a peace effort here, and you can't say we're going to do it sometime in the future. We need to be doing this in the next 30 days. We've admired this problem for long enough down there." 

Pompeo issued a statement: "The time is now for the cessation of hostilities. ... Substantive consultations under the UN Special Envoy must commence this November in a third country. ... It is time to end this conflict, replace conflict with compromise, and allow the Yemeni people to heal through peace and reconstruction.

The other side, from former Ambassador to Yemen Stephen Seche: "If the Administration is serious about the need to end this war, Mr. Pompeo should get back on his airplane and fly to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi and Muscat and demonstrate a commitment on the part of the U.S. to use its influence to produce a ceasefire. Otherwise, these statements look like a desperate attempt by the Administration to get ahead of the wave of condemnation that has engulfed Saudi Arabia. ... Notably, Secretary Pompeo’s statement failed to even call for the principal parties to the conflict to take steps simultaneously to implement a ceasefire, instead insisting that Houthi missile strikes into Saudi territory must stop first, after which coalition air strikes would cease. That is not a serious proposal, that is fundamentally an invitation for the war to continue."

Top Democrats want fundamental changes in U.S.-Saudi relationship

Searing images from the world's worst humanitarian crisis

Pompeo certified Saudi support in Yemen despite staff warnings

Mattis, Pompeo call for cease-fire in Yemen

Last month, the two voiced continued support for the Saudi coalition there.

Axios

Wednesday's top stories