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National

The Pentagon plans to deploy 5,200 troops to ports of entry on the U.S.-Mexico border in Texas, Arizona and California by the end of this week to support immigration authorities' efforts to stop Central American migrants headed for the U.S., officials announced Monday.

The details: Terrence J. O’Shaughnessy, head of the U.S. Northern Command, told reporters that a group of 800 soldiers was already heading to Texas from Fort Campbell and Fort Knox. The announcement comes in the closing days of the midterm elections season, in which President Trump has said he will cut off federal aid to the countries from which migrants are fleeing. He is reportedly planning to deny any requests for asylum and close the southern border as a migrant caravan makes its way north. 

Pentagon to deploy 5,200 troops to U.S.-Mexico border

Reports last week indicated that 800 troops would be deployed.

Kirstjen Nielsen giving a press conference at southern border

Politics

Immigration

Latin America and Latinos

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

A new study predicts that a sharp increase in energy-hungry Bitcoin use will cause a surge in emissions of greenhouse gases, potentially dooming the world to an amount of global warming that would exceed the targets set under the Paris Climate Agreement. 

Why it matters: Bitcoin has an energy problem, requiring high amounts of electricity to process transactions. Determining the implications of such energy use is of concern for  climate scientists, particularly if this new currency takes off in popularity. 

What they did: The study estimates that Bitcoin usage emitted 69 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in 2017, while accounting for just 0.033% of cashless transactions in the same year. They then project future emissions based on a variety of scenarios of growing Bitcoin usage in coming years. 

The researchers, from the University of Hawaii at Manoa, found that Bitcoin could be responsible for greenhouse gas emissions sufficient to propel climate change past 2°C, or 3.6°F, above preindustrial levels within just the next 11 to 22 years. 

As the study, published in Nature Climate Change on Monday, notes, a lot of Bitcoin mining takes place in China and other parts of Asia, which currently depend on coal for a lot of their electricity. 

Therefore, if Bitcoin is increasingly utilized as a cryptocurrency, the authors project, emissions could skyrocket.  

But, but but... The study makes a number of questionable assumptions, experts said. For example, the projections assume that the fuel types used to generate electricity will remain the same as they are today. 

This ignores the rapid rise of renewables worldwide and phaseout of carbon-intensive coal plants from many countries. 

They also didn't take into account the likelihood that Bitcoin mining will migrate between countries, potentially shifting from nations with a more carbon-intensive electricity base, like China, to cleaner ones, such as Iceland or the U.S. 

Also, accurately predicting future use of a novel technology is difficult, and many observers expect Bitcoin to serve more as an investment vehicle than a currency.

What they're saying: Northwestern University’s Eric Masanet, who specializes in energy modeling, called the new study “fundamentally flawed,” in a statement. 

“While the future growth of cryptocurrencies like bitcoin is highly unpredictable, we do know that the global electric power sector is decarbonizing and that information technologies — including cryptocurrency mining rigs — are becoming much more energy efficient. It appears the authors have overlooked these two latter trends in their projections, while simultaneously insisting on tremendous growth in cryptocurrency adoption, resulting in inflated and dubious estimates of future carbon emissions.”

Similarly, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab research scientist Arman Shehabi tells ThinkProgress that the study keeps certain factors the same while assuming a drastic growth in the use of Bitcoin. Shehabi noted that Bitcoin mining "has already increased efficiency by an order of magnitude or more in the last few years.”

Our thought bubble: The high energy costs and climate impact of Bitcoin mining is a legitimate ongoing concern, but specific predictions are only as good as the assumptions they're based on, and those assumptions — of rates of technology adoption, sources of energy, and efficiency of the applications — are very hard to nail accurately.

Scott Rosenberg contributed to this story.

No, Bitcoin won't destroy our climate by 2033

Bitcoin consumes a lot of energy, but may not be as disastrous as a new study says.

Bitcoin mining is an energy hog, but it won't destroy the planet like a new study says it will.

Science

Climate change

Technology

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

President Trump asked the thousands of Central American migrants traveling in a caravan toward the United States to "please go back" in a Monday morning tweet, adding that they "will not be admitted into the United States unless [they] go through the legal process." 

Reality check: Most of these migrants intend to pursue a "legal process" to enter the U.S. via a claim of asylum. Unlike refugees who apply for protection while still in their home country, asylum-seekers must be on American soil and present themselves at a port of entry or to immigration officials in order to claim asylum. 

How we got here: The U.S. government began granting asylum to foreign nationals already in the U.S. in 1972, according to U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. It was intended to allow those who feared returning to their country to remain in the U.S. in the spirit of the UN Refugee Agency's Refugee Protocol and Convention. 

Asylum-seekers must prove persecution or fear of persecution in their home country due to their race, religion, nationality, political opinion or being a member of a particular social group.  

Today, asylum-seekers can apply for affirmative asylum by presenting themselves to immigration officials within one year of arriving in the U.S. They must first pass an initial "credible fear" interview, proving they are reasonably afraid of returning to their home country. In the first three quarters of FY 2018, 76% passed the credible fear interview. Asylum-seekers are then kept in detention or released into the U.S. until their asylum cases are resolved — which often takes months if not years, according to the American Immigration Council.

"The extremely low bar for establishing credible fear is ripe for fraud and abuse ... a credible fear referral doesn’t equal asylum status, but it does earn a free ticket into the U.S., allowing individuals to disappear into the interior to live and work illegally."

If illegal immigrants are arrested and placed in deportation proceedings, they can still apply for asylum defensively — a legal option that has become increasingly popular under Trump.

The big picture: The number of asylum-seekers from Central America has skyrocketed over the past several years. These nations have been beset by high murder rates, rampant gang violence and widespread poverty. In 2017, the U.S. received more requests for asylum than any other country in the world, according to data from the U.N. Refugee Agency data.

Yet more than 70% of Honduran, Salvadoran and Guatemalan asylum-seekers were denied defensive asylum in the U.S. between FY 2012 and FY 2017, according to data collected by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse at Syracuse University. 

And only one-quarter of all affirmative asylum applications were approved in the first three quarters of FY 2018, according to data from USCIS.

At the same time, Attorney General Jeff Sessions has continued to increase scrutiny for asylum-seekers, disqualifying those who claim domestic abuse or gang violence. He also recently referred an immigration case to himself for review, and his decision could keep all asylum-seekers caught crossing the border illegally in mandatory detention — even if they've passed their "credible fear" interview.

The bottom line: It will still be weeks before the caravan reaches a U.S. port of entry, but those migrants need to reach American soil in order to credibly and legally claim asylum in the U.S. And even after their journey, they face unfavorable odds of legally receiving asylum from the Trump administration.

Reality check: How the U.S. asylum process works

Trump is telling migrants to go home, but they need to be on U.S. soil to claim asylum.

This is a metaphorical ticket for asylum, which immigrants in the migrant caravan are seeking

President Trump and first lady Melania Trump will travel to Pennsylvania tomorrow to "grieve with the Pittsburgh community" following Saturday's mass shooting at the Tree of Life Synagogue.

 "The president cherishes the American Jewish community for everything it stands for ... he adores Jewish-Americans as part of his own family."

Other highlights from the White House press briefing Monday:

Trump is referring to individual journalists — not media outlets as a whole — and fake news when he says "the media is the enemy of the people," Sanders said. Trump tweeted again Monday that the media is to blame for current political hostility.

Sanders said "the president will continue to fight back," when asked if Trump will tone down his rhetoric following the pipe bomb attacks on prominent Trump critics.

Trump is still considering what action to take following journalist Jamal Khashoggi's killing, Sanders said, adding that he has recently been briefed by CIA Director Gina Haspel, who gathered additional intelligence while in Turkey.

Trump, Melania to visit Pittsburgh tomorrow

To "grieve with the Pittsburgh community" following Saturday's mass shooting.

Melania and Trump on Air Force One staircase waving.

Photo: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images

Donald Trump

Dan and Axios' Felix Salmon discuss if U.S. companies will resume normal relations with Saudi Arabia, now that the news cycle has moved on.

Go deeper: Davos in the Desert's epic flop

Subscribe to the podcast, or tell Amazon's Alexa to "play Pro Rata flash briefing." 

Podcast: Keeping an eye on Saudi Arabia

Dan and Felix Salmon ask if U.S. companies will resume normal relations with Saudi Arabia, now that the news cycle has moved on.

Business

Pro Rata Podcast

World

Axios Re:Cap

Podcasts

A Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashed into the ocean shortly after taking off from an airport in Jakarta, Indonesia, likely killing all 189 people on board, the AP reports.

The big picture: Indonesian airlines have been known for their spotty safety records, and bans on flights to Europe and the United States had only been lifted over the last few years. An Indonesian official said the pilot had requested to return to the airport just minutes after taking off, adding that the plane had experienced a technical issue on its previous flight.

Between the lines: The crash is noteworthy for being the first to involve the Boeing 737 MAX, which is a more powerful and efficient version of the popular 737. The aircraft is used on trans-Atlantic routes, and more than 4,700 are on order worldwide, Boeing says on its website.

189 feared dead after Indonesian plane crash

Indonesian airlines have been known for their spotty safety records.

Members of a rescue team collect personal items and wreckage from a plane crash in Tanjung Priok, North Jakarta. Photo: Resmi Malau/AFP/Getty Images

Plane crashes

Axios AI+

The last week proved that hate still abounds in America, and also that social media continues to fuel it. 

The bottom line: On social media today, false narratives spread, bigotry intensifies, and sometimes entire plots are hatched. Tech's platforms have become hate-speech amplifiers, and their owners, especially Twitter, haven't shown they have a handle on the problem.

The letter-bomb campaign suspect had been reported to Twitter for having made a direct threat against a political commentator two weeks ago, but Twitter responded that he hadn't violated the company's terms of service.

Twitter took down the account after the accused bomber was in custody and eventually apologized for not taking action on that initial report.

"We made a mistake when Rochelle Ritchie first alerted us to the threat made against her. The Tweet clearly violated our rules and should have been removed. We are deeply sorry for that error."

Case #2: Gab and the Pittsburgh shooting 

The Pittsburgh synagogue shooting suspect had been a frequent poster on Gab, a less widely known social media platform that dubs itself as a "free speech" advocate. Gab, which was started as an alternative for extremists who found that Twitter was beginning to banish them, tends to allow violent hate speech as long as there aren't specific attacks directed at particular individuals.

The tech industry took some more concrete steps here. Microsoft had quietly cut ties with Gab a month ago, forcing it to find a new hosting provider. After the shooting, PayPal cut ties with Gab, followed by Stripe. Hosting providers Joyent and BackBlaze also cut services to Gab, pushing the site offline by Sunday evening.

Meanwhile: Twitter critics noted just how much hate speech has remained up on the site.

Communications professor Jennifer Grygiel pointed out a number of hate-filled screeds that had been on the site for years. While a number of the text-based ones were taken down, some image-based memes remained, indicating that Twitter may have a tougher time screening text that is part of an image, vs. plain-text tweets.

BuzzFeed's Charlie Warzel noted the spread of a false meme on Twitter suggesting George Soros — a Holocaust survivor — was a Nazi.

Plus, for a time on Sunday, typing the hashtag symbol and B was leading to auto-complete suggestions that included #burnthejews. (That changed later Sunday, following an inquiry from Axios.)

Advocates of free speech online long argued that it's good to keep extremists' activities out in the open, and sunlight is the best disinfectant. But too often social networks have turned out to be toxic environments where the fumes blot out the light instead.

Social network Gab under scrutiny in wake of Pittsburgh shooting

Social media is still spreading hate

Some platforms, especially Twitter, haven't shown they have a handle on the problem.

Candle light vigil for victims of Pittsburgh shooting

Pittsburgh mourners after the synagogue shooting. Photo: Aaron Jackendoff/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Social media

Media

Elon Musk

Social Media

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Embattled German Chancellor Angela Merkel will not run for re-election in 2021 and will step down in December as chairwoman of her party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), she announced in a press conference Monday.

The big picture: Merkel has served as chancellor of Germany since 2005 and head of the CDU since 2000. Her decision comes after significant losses by the CDU and its coalition partners during recent state elections in Bavaria and Hesse, where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and liberal Greens have chipped away at the coalition's ruling majority.

Germany's Merkel to step down in 2021

Her Christian Democratic Union has suffered major losses in recent state elections.

Angela Merkel

Axios AM

Climate change is reshaping aspects of our environment that many of us thought were static — from where deserts begin and end, to what we can grow in backyard or community gardens.

Why it matters: These changes portend bigger shifts to come that may reshape the global food system and lead to insecurity, with major agricultural countries facing more challenges from pests, heat waves, droughts, floods and other threats that could affect crop productivity. 

The shift was highlighted a fascinating article, "Redrawing the Map: How the World’s Climate Zones Are Shifting," by Nicola Jones in Yale Environment 360, published at the Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies: 

Climate change is redrawing maps

It's reshaping aspects of our environment that many of us thought were static.

Axios

Monday's top stories