Axios

Persian Gulf countries like the United Arab Emirates have plenty of dollars, yet they're asking the U.S. for access to more — via what's called swap lines — and the Trump administration seems open to the idea.

Why it matters: The asks are less about finances and more about politics — a sign of how the U.S. is trying to maintain dollar dominance amid a changing geopolitical backdrop.

A U.S. special forces soldier was arrested and charged with using classified information about the raid to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro to profit from prediction market bets, the Department of Justice announced Thursday.

Why it matters: The case lands as regulators and lawmakers intensify scrutiny of prediction markets — offering a real-world test of how aggressively authorities pursue insider trading tied to sensitive government information.

• This is the first time the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed charges of insider trading in connection with event contracts, per a CFTC statement.

The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon will be extended by another three weeks, President Trump said after hosting the Israeli and Lebanese ambassadors in the Oval Office on Thursday.

Why it matters: The U.S. wants to extend the Lebanon ceasefire for two reasons: to advance direct Israel-Lebanon peace talks and to prevent renewed fighting from undermining the effort to reach a deal with Iran.

Luxury demand is taking a hit as geopolitical tensions rise, with LVMH CEO Bernard Arnault warning of a "pretty serious crisis in the Middle East."

Why it matters: The Iran war is threatening to drag down consumer spending worldwide, and delaying the expected demand recovery in luxury retail.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) navy laid more mines in the Strait of Hormuz this week, according to a U.S. official and a source with knowledge of the issue.

Why it matters: The military standoff in the world's most important oil chokepoint is escalating, with Iran laying mines and attacking commercial ships on one side and the U.S. tightening its naval blockade on the other.

The Trump administration on Thursday accused China-backed actors of running "deliberate, industrial-scale campaigns" to distill and copy American frontier AI models.

Why it matters: The accusation pushes the U.S.-China AI rivalry into more confrontational territory — and could complicate President Trump's upcoming visit to Beijing.

A U.S. Navy sailor assigned to a minesweeping ship that's headed to the Strait of Hormuz was medically evacuated to his home port after he was scratched by an Asian monkey while ashore in Thailand, officials say.

Why it matters: The Navy reports that the incident did not delay the USS Chief's mission and that the sailor is OK, but officials say the attack is a reminder that military missions face unexpected troubles and disruptions that are hard to war-game for.

The AI economy is being constrained by the physical world: The Iran war threatens to squeeze the industrial inputs that chip manufacturers depend on, the latest confirmation that once-reliable global chokepoints are now more fragile than ever.

Why it matters: It is part of a growing pattern defining the economic conditions of the 2020s: shocks exposing the fragility of supply chains that the world took for granted.

At the start of the war, stocks fell and oil prices rose on fears of the economic fallout from a historic energy shock — now that connection is fraying.

Why it matters: It highlights a key distinction between the stock market, which frequently seems to trade on vibes and memes, and commodities markets which ultimately are tethered to real physical goods.

China has stashed away far more oil than any other country, according to U.S. government data released this week.

Why it matters: The stockpile, which surged last year, is emerging as a strategic advantage as the world faces an oil shock with the Strait of Hormuz largely shut.