Trump's oil export surge — and ceiling

• But at some point, the limits of its infrastructure — especially Gulf Coast ports and terminals — are likely to put a ceiling on how much more oil the U.S. can export.
• And nearer term, higher U.S. shipments can only offset a small amount of the massive drop in Middle East transit.

The big picture: The Iran war could redraw the world's oil map, or at least parts of it.

• Think Mideast producers building pipelines to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but also more tanker shipments from the U.S. and other countries outside the Persian Gulf.
• "Even post-conflict, we expect [that] some of the trade flows [will] tend to reset" rather than return to what they were before the war, said Rob Wilson of the energy data and consulting firm East Daley Analytics.

Driving the news: It's already happening.

• Combined U.S. exports of oil and petroleum products (gasoline, jet fuel, etc.) hit a record of 12.9 million barrels per day last week, federal data shows.
• The data is noisy, but analysts agree the trend is up as energy-thirsty countries scramble for supply.

How it works: U.S. crude exports generally have run in the range of 3.5 million to 4.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in recent years.

• But they're higher lately. Market intel firm Kpler expects an average of 5 million bpd in April for the first time on a monthly basis.
• Kpler's Matt Smith cites greater availability of huge tankers — "very large crude carriers" (VLCCs) that tote about 2 million barrels — due to the strait closure, and relatively attractive U.S. oil prices compared to other grades.

What's next: Watch whether the recent rise is a new normal — and how much more growth is feasible for crude and oil products.

State of play: Smith says around 6.5 million bpd is possible in a given week for crude, but he sees a monthly ceiling in the 5.5 million bpd range due to logistical constraints.

• Wilson of East Daley Analytics sees a "soft" ceiling of 1-2 million barrels of additional crude exports available, but similarly notes hurdles.

With petroleum product exports now at record levels, S&P Global Energy refining analyst William O'Neil sees port constraints, but also another factor: inventories of diesel and other products are falling quickly.

• This, plus refineries running at high levels, suggests today's levels "cannot be sustained indefinitely before domestic inventories become tight enough to incentivize refiners to reduce exports," he tells Axios.

The other side: White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said refineries are "a critical component of the President's energy dominance agenda" and noted that Trump recently announced a new refinery will be opened in Brownsville, Texas.

The intrigue: A big question is whether all this (waves arms around) brings fresh private investment to expand Gulf Coast port and terminal capacity.

• Several offshore crude port projects have been in the planning stages for years — like Sentinel Midstream's Texas GulfLink.

Reality check: Jacques Rousseau, managing director with the research firm ClearView Energy Partners, said only Texas Gulflink "appears to be moving forward."

• He doesn't see the war changing the investment picture on these projects.
• "It is a long-term investment, and it was only two months ago when the world was significantly oversupplied with oil and U.S. crude production was not growing," he said via email.

What we're watching: Wilson, of East Daley Analytics, is also cautious about whether big projects will move ahead.

• But they might, he said, if high prices and geopolitical risk bring sustained U.S. production growth and demand for exports.
• "If global buyers continue to prioritize supply that avoids chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, that creates a stronger case for offshore export capacity — particularly solutions that bypass congested channels like Houston," he said.