Axios

The Iran war has entered its third week with ballooning costs and a deepening humanitarian crisis — and no diplomatic off-ramp in sight.

The big picture: Trump and his aides have mentioned varying timelines for ending the war. But with a heavily damaged but defiant Iran stymieing trade, the U.S. remains dug in.

When Jared Kushner formed Affinity Partners in 2021, and then raised most of his first fund from Middle Eastern sovereigns, he took great pains to say that the endeavor was conceived after he left the White House.

• He bristled at suggestions of quid pro quo, but also understood that the whiff was strong enough that it had to be addressed.

UniCredit of Italy launched an unsolicited bid to increase its stake in Germany's Commerzbank to over 30%.

Why it matters: This would trigger a one-time takeover offer, per German securities law.

Two U.S. companies — Realta Fusion and X-energy — on Monday announced separate agreements with Japanese counterparts on fusion and nuclear energy.

Why it matters: The agreements show the eagerness to take advantage of Japan's technical expertise while expanding supply chain connections between the countries — a priority for the Trump administration.

The war in Iran has sent oil prices skyrocketing, scrambling an economic conflict with Russia that's been raging for more than a decade.

The big picture: It's harder to maintain tight sanctions on Russia —effectively a "cold war" — while also grappling with the economic impact from the "hot war" with Iran.

President Trump is working to assemble a coalition of countries to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and hopes to announce it later this week, four sources tell Axios.

• Trump is also weighing a seizure of Iran's critical oil depot on Kharg Island — a move that would require U.S. boots on the ground — if tankers remain bottled up in the Persian Gulf, U.S. officials say.

Why it matters: Oil and gas prices are rising as Iran's blockade of the Gulf's narrow strait drags on, choking off a significant share of the world's crude supply.

FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatened to revoke broadcasters' licenses over Iran war coverage, a day after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth singled out CNN and rooted for a friendlier owner.

The big picture: President Trump has taken credit for "reshaping" the American media landscape via intimidation, regulatory leverage and policy pressure that's cast a shadow over newsroom autonomy.

President Trump said Sunday he may delay his visit to China this month and urged the country to help the U.S. reopen the Strait of Hormuz that Iran's effectively shut during the war.

The big picture: Trump made the comments during an interview with the Financial Times that included him issuing warnings to Iran and NATO, as the effectively shuttered strait that's a key commercial shipping channel and high oil prices weigh heavily on his administration.

Democrats are barreling toward an identity crisis: When Donald Trump is gone, they're not sure what they'll stand for.

• Top party strategists are warning they can't win back the White House in 2028 by coasting on voters' dissatisfaction with the president and MAGA.

Why it matters: Democrats expect to pick up congressional seats in this year's midterms by riding an anti-Trump wave — and history suggests they're probably right. But some in the party worry they could learn the wrong lessons from victory.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday there are "no guarantees" when gas prices will fall, acknowledging the Strait of Hormuz remains unsafe.

The big picture: Administration officials are adamant the pump price shock will be short-lived pain for a geopolitical gain. But the spike in prices threatens to become a political liability.