Axios

Outside super PACs backing Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.) are outspending Abdul El-Sayed on television by more than 12 to 1 during the final five weeks of Michigan's Democratic Senate primary.

• The total: $26.9 million for Stevens versus $2.1 million for El-Sayed, from July 1 to the Aug. 4 primary, according to AdImpact.

Why it matters: That's a massive cash advantage in an expensive state — and it underscores how outside groups have reshaped the race's closing stretch in what is turning into a proxy war for the future of the Democratic Party.

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to hold a conspicuously early vote on a short-term funding bill next week — more than two months before the government runs out of money.

Why it matters: Johnson may be setting himself up to win in September by losing in July.

White House officials were surprised in recent days to read in the Israeli press that President Trump would host Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday.

• In fact, no meeting has been scheduled.

Why it matters: Netanyahu has visited the Oval Office six times since Trump returned to office a year and a half ago — more than any other world leader. Each of those meetings was scheduled within a matter of hours or days. This time, Netanyahu has been trying to get an appointment for more than two weeks.

President Trump's primetime speech Thursday evening won't receive live coverage among at least two of the four major TV networks — but it will be available via streaming.

The big picture: The address, which is expected to center around election security, puts ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox between a rock and a hard place: air potentially false claims about the 2020 election or risk backlash from the White House and a confrontational Federal Communications Commission.

Few major donors to U.S. Sen. John Cornyn have thrown their weight behind GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton since the Texas attorney general defeated Cornyn in a May runoff, per an Axios analysis of newly released federal campaign finance data.

Why it matters: Paxton likely must rally Cornyn supporters to his side to defeat Democrat James Talarico, a state legislator from Austin and a formidable fundraiser seeking to appeal to moderate voters.

A bipartisan push to pass the late Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) revised Russia sanctions package has more than 60 co-sponsors — enough to clear a Senate filibuster.

Why it matters: The legislation, which would impose 100% secondary tariffs on countries that continue buying Russian oil and gas, now appears to have the votes it needs to pass the Senate. The biggest remaining hurdle is getting floor time.

Half of all ICE field offices across the U.S. now have body cameras for agents, with the rest expected to get them within 60 days, according to the Department of Homeland Security.

Why it matters: Calls for all agents to be outfitted with cameras have accelerated as a series of fatal shootings and other use-of-force incidents have unfolded nationwide.

President Trump's deportation campaign has expanded far beyond ICE, turning federal agents, state troopers, local police and even wildlife officers into a massive 50,000-person internal enforcement force, a new ACLU report says.

Why it matters: The aggressive expansion is blurring the lines between local public safety and federal immigration enforcement, fundamentally changing U.S. law enforcement — and raising civil rights concerns, the report says.

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) said he'd leave the Democratic Party if it becomes the "anti-Israel party," though he signaled he had no plans to imminently depart the caucus.

Why it matters: Republicans currently hold a narrow Senate majority, but with midterm elections looming, Fetterman's comments could be a blow to Democrats should they flip four seats in November and regain control.

Federal regulators are investigating whether a White House teleprompter operator capitalized on his knowledge of President Trump's prepared speech text by making trades on the prediction market Kalshi, according to two sources familiar with the matter.

• The speeches the person allegedly traded on included the State of the Union in February.

Why it matters: The rise of prediction markets has raised concerns about insider trading, which Kalshi and federal regulators say they're well positioned to combat.

Outgoing Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said Thursday he would not vote to confirm acting Attorney General Todd Blanche to the permanent role until Blanche meets with survivors of Jeffrey Epstein's abuse.

Why it matters: Even a single Republican "no" vote on the Senate Judiciary Committee would prevent Blanche's nomination from advancing to a confirmation vote before the full Senate.

Perhaps the most consequential piece of the new landmark housing legislation involves an astonishingly simple change to a 50-year-old federal law.

• Manufactured houses, or mobile homes, no longer must have a permanent chassis, the steel under-frame used to transport the house and then left attached.

Why it matters: The U.S. desperately needs more affordable starter houses for low- and middle-income folks currently priced out of the market, and some builders and housing advocates say this little tweak could help do the trick.

President Trump's primetime address Thursday night is forcing TV networks to choose: Air potential 2020 election falsehoods, or risk backlash from a White House that's shown little hesitation in confronting the media.

Why it matters: What usually would be a straightforward decision on whether to carry a presidential address has become a high-stakes editorial judgment for broadcast networks.

The three men racing hardest to build superhuman AI — Demis Hassabis, Sam Altman and Dario Amodei — all agree the frontier needs to be regulated ASAP.

Why it matters: For the first time, the CEOs of Google DeepMind, OpenAI and Anthropic are on the record, in writing, converging on the same diagnosis and remarkably similar prescriptions.

Late Tuesday at the White House, a livid President Trump complained to advisers about the Department of Homeland Security's decision to pause the type of vehicle stops by ICE agents that had led to two fatal shootings in the past two weeks.

• The department's idea seemed to be that agents would get more training. But by Wednesday morning, Trump had sent a Truth Social post reversing the pause, leaving DHS Secretary Markwayne Mullin and border czar Tom Homan to try to explain.

Why it matters: The episode showed how the latest ICE shootings have revived a tense debate within the administration over how to balance increasing public pressure to stop the violence with Trump's desire for tough enforcement and more deportations.

Vice President Vance is venturing into unfriendly media terrain to defend the White House against its critics — reviving the same playbook that endeared him to President Trump when he was picking his running mate.

Why it matters: Vance is using the media blitz to showcase one of his biggest political assets — his talent for verbal combat — as he lays the groundwork for an expected 2028 presidential campaign.

The Democratic National Committee asked its leadership team to sign non-disclosure agreements before a recent meeting about the party's finances, two people familiar with the conversations told Axios.

Why it matters: The move — a break from past practice for such officers — underscored DNC chair Ken Martin's sensitivity about the party's money woes and the persistent criticism about his leadership.

China is now viewed more favorably than the U.S. in most of the 36 countries surveyed by the Pew Research Center, according to a new report spanning six continents.

Why it matters: The findings suggest the global standing of the U.S. has slipped as President Trump advances his "America First" agenda, while China's international image has improved.