Texas takeaways: The night Trump tossed Cornyn
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Republican Ken Paxton's 28-point primary rout of longtime Texas Sen. John Cornyn — the widest primary defeat for a sitting U.S. senator in nearly 50 years — further cements President Trump's hold on the GOP — but may complicate the party's ability to protect its Senate majority in November.
Why it matters: As election returns rolled in late Tuesday, top Republicans stewed over Trump's endorsement of Paxton — Texas' attorney general with a long history of legal and ethical troubles who they believe could be more vulnerable in November.
For Trump, it was the latest in a string of takedowns of Republicans he'd deemed not loyal enough.
- They include state lawmakers from Indiana who resisted his redistricting push and Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), who in 2021 voted to convict Trump on impeachment charges. And now Cornyn, who almost always votes with Trump but was viewed as not aggressive enough in pushing his agenda.
- Cornyn's 28-point loss is the widest primary defeat for a sitting U.S. senator since 1978, according to Bolts' Daniel Nichanian, and that time, the Montana senator had just been appointed to the seat months before.
Key takeaways from Tuesday's primary:
1. Republicans have a money problem to iron out.
The GOP now feels the need to pour tens of millions of dollars more into Texas' Senate race than if it were Cornyn opposing upstart Democrat James Talarico.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune's political operation and the National Republican Senatorial Committee both helped Cornyn in the primary.
- Their donors are unlikely to be excited about turning around and funding Paxton's race against Talarico. (The NRSC's statement on the primary late Tuesday didn't mention Paxton.)
- That's a problem, since Talarico is a strong fundraiser and Paxton isn't.
Top Republicans say Trump owns Paxton's win and that the burden now falls on the president's well-funded political machine to finance the GOP side of the Texas race.
2. Republicans have a YOLO problem (You Only Live Once).
Trump already has a numbers problem in the Senate, where he's been facing pushback on his $1 billion ballroom project and his $1.8 billion "anti-weaponization fund."
Cornyn's defeat could further complicate things. After Trump helped end his four-term Senate career, Cornyn may feel he has nothing to lose by holding up controversial Trump priorities.
- That's what Cassidy has done since Trump helped oust him in a Republican primary earlier this month.
- It's not clear Cornyn will take that path. He didn't go after Trump in his concession speech. But like Cassidy, he's a free agent in the Senate for the next seven-plus months.
3. Trump still calls the shots.
His popularity is historically low and the turnout for Texas' primary runoff was light. But the power of Trump's endorsement was clear in counties across the state.
- In the first round of voting on March 3, Cornyn narrowly topped Paxton by racking up wins in counties throughout West, South and Central Texas. Neither candidate got more than 50% of the vote in a crowded field, so Cornyn and Paxton advanced to Tuesday's runoff.
- On Tuesday — a week after Trump endorsed Paxton — the attorney general swept nearly all the same areas.
- By night's end, Cornyn was on pace to win just three of Texas' 254 counties: Dallas, Travis (Austin) and Kenedy — a rural South Texas county that includes a big chunk of the famed King Ranch. Just eight Kenedy voters showed up Tuesday. Six went for Cornyn.
