Axios

President Trump has begun the process of staffing judicial vacancies.

The big picture: During his first term, Trump flipped the federal judiciary with the help of Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), together setting a record on the number of judges confirmed.

Many lawmakers who hoped Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) would vie to lead Democrats on the House Oversight Committee are quietly throwing their lot behind Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.).

Why it matters: Garcia, a member of Democratic leadership, could emerge as the choice of colleagues seeking to bypass the seniority system and install party leaders willing to match the Trump administration's brute force tactics.

The regime of Venezuela's Nicolás Maduro is "probably not directing" the criminal gang Tren de Aragua's (TDA) movement into and operations within the U.S., according to a partially declassified intelligence memo.

What they found: "The small size of TDA's cells, its focus on low skill criminal activities and its decentralized structure make it highly unlikely that TDA coordinates large volumes of human trafficking or migrant smuggling," per the U.S. intel memo that was first shared with the New York Times on Monday.

Billionaire hedge-fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said Tuesday that the U.S. trade war with China was past the point of no return.

Why it matters: Jones' comments come as economists have also suggested that the impact of Trump's tariffs are likely to outlast him.

A freshly established PAC will start pressuring both Republican and Democratic lawmakers to support a congressional stock trading ban, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: President Trump renewed hope for a ban when he told Time magazine in an interview which published late last month that he would sign such a measure into law. But opponents remain on Capitol Hill.

President Trump is at risk of losing his pick for a top attack dog in D.C. — and his base is furious about it.

• Ed Martin, Trump's nominee to be the top federal prosecutor in the District, may not have enough votes to be confirmed by the Senate.

⚖️ Martin has been a Swiss Army knife for Trump's agenda — threatening Wikipedia over biased "propaganda," pursuing DOGE critics, and promising to "Make D.C. Safe Again," Axios D.C.'s Cuneyt Dil writes.

Canada "is not for sale," nor will it be, Prime Minister Mark Carney told Trump in the Oval Office today.

• "Never say never," Trump said.
• "Never," Carney replied.

👀 What we're watching: Trump said nothing Carney offered today would prompt him to lift tariffs on Canada, which have prompted the country to vocally pursue a foreign and economic policy that is less tethered to the U.S.

• Go deeper.

1. 🚢 Trump said the U.S. would stop bombing Houthi rebels in Yemen, because they had "capitulated" and agreed to stop attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea. Go deeper.
2. 🪖 The Supreme Court said Trump's ban on transgender people serving in the military can take effect while lawsuits over the policy work their way through the courts. Go deeper.
3. 🏇 Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will not run in the Preakness — meaning there won't be a Triple Crown winner this year. Go deeper.

Rapper André 3000 showed up to the Met Gala last night sporting a 30-pound piano on his back.

• The attention-getting accessory was made of foam, plywood and 3D-printed elements, according to Vogue. It's based on a Steinway Model S baby grand.

The piano was also a tie-in with Andre 3000's new EP, Axios Atlanta's Thomas Wheatley writes.

• 🎧 Most of the songs on "7 Piano Sketches" were recorded on an iPhone in a rented Texas house containing "only a piano, our beds and tv screens," he wrote on Instagram.

Wednesday is the Real ID deadline but Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said Tuesday those without identification that complies with the law "will be allowed to fly."

Why it matters: After repeated delays, May 7 is the enforcement deadline to have identification that meets federal security standards to board a commercial aircraft in the U.S.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney privately asked President Trump to stop referring to the country as the 51st U.S. state, the prime minister said after their meeting Tuesday.

Why it matters: Trump has repeatedly threatened Canadian sovereignty, but Carney's Liberal Party staged a political comeback by rallying against Trump's annexation threats.

Senate Democrats are unveiling a sweeping new proposal to ban presidents, lawmakers and their families from issuing, endorsing or sponsoring crypto assets, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Concerns over the Trump family's crypto ventures is threatening the passage of the bipartisan GENIUS Act, the Senate's first-ever stablecoin regulation.

President Trump is at risk of losing his pick for a top attack dog in D.C. — and his base is furious about it.

The big picture: Ed Martin., Trump's nominee to be the top federal prosecutor in the District, may not have enough votes to be confirmed by the Senate.

President Trump and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, fresh off a Liberal Party election victory, met Tuesday — a week after Carney declared an end to his country's "old relationship of integration" with the U.S.

Why it matters: Carney and Trump met after the U.S. president's rollercoaster trade war and talks of annexation fueled a stunning Liberal party comeback in Canada.

Senate Republicans will huddle at the Library of Congress on Wednesday to discuss where things stand with President Trump's "one, big beautiful bill," Axios has learned.

Why it matters: Conservatives are demanding a minimum of $1 trillion in spending cuts, moderates are refusing to take a hatchet to Medicaid, Trump keeps adding new tax priorities— and the clock is ticking.

President Trump on Tuesday said he would stop bombing Houthi rebels in Yemen because the group, armed by Iran, no longer wants to fight.

Why it matters: This tenuous deal follows a beefed-up U.S. presence in the greater Middle East and months of missile-and-drone exchanges that chewed through coveted stateside stockpiles.

The Trump administration's ban on transgender troops in the military can go into effect after the Supreme Court on Tuesday ruled enforcement could start.

The big picture: The emergency ruling green lights the ban, which is part of President Trump's wider attacks on transgender people, while challenges move forward in courts.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez's (D-N.Y.) surprise announcement Tuesday that she will not run to be the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee could lead to a hotly contested, multi-candidate fight for the role.

Why it matters: No one candidate has emerged as the obvious frontrunner to replace Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.), with some young progressives scrambling to find a standard-bearer in place of Ocasio-Cortez.

Republican Sen. Thom Tillis (N.C.) told reporters Tuesday that he's opposed to Ed Martin's nomination for top prosecutor in D.C., threatening the viability of one of President Trump's loyalist picks.

Why it matters: Tillis is a member of the Judiciary Committee, which will vote first on the pick. A lone Republican holdout on the panel would mean Martin's nomination doesn't advance out of the committee.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) on Tuesday will unveil his plan to put swing-district House Republicans in the hot seat on the most potent aspects of their party's budget bill.

Why it matters: Democrats are scrambling to try to sink the massive tax and spending cut package by drilling down on cuts to benefits that constituents in key GOP districts rely upon.

Columbia University announced that nearly 180 staff members working on eliminated federal funding will be receive termination or non-renewal notices Tuesday.

The big picture: Professors and administrators fear that administration's blunt cuts to higher education institutions could set innovation back decades as scientific research takes a blow from political forces.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney on Tuesday will meet face-to-face with President Trump, a sit-down that comes amid a deepening rift between the neighboring nations.

Why it matters: Trump's trade war and repeated annexation threats against Canada have upended the U.S.'s relationship with one of its closest allies.

A compounding mess at Newark Liberty International Airport in New Jersey led to days of flight delays and cancellations.

The big picture: Several factors collided to fuel more than a week of airport headaches, the most prominent being a shortage of air traffic controllers.

Republicans in Congress want to make the biggest changes to Medicaid in its 60-year history. But politics and budget math are increasingly raising doubts about whether it's feasible to cut the program to pay for a giant tax package.

Why it matters: Medicaid's growth makes the program a prime target for federal funding cuts. But increased enrollment during the pandemic has also made the program popular enough with voters that it's become something of a political third rail, similar to Medicare.

President Trump's threat to impose tariffs on film imports to the U.S. could risk retaliatory actions in international markets, where American film studios make the bulk of their box office revenue.

Why it matters: Studios are already reeling from a weakened box office following the pandemic. Tariffs could send the industry into a tailspin.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered a reduction in the number of military generals and admirals by at least 20%, per a memorandum published Monday.

The big picture: Hegseth wants a minimum 20% cut to the number of four-star positions across the military's active component and the same for general officers in the National Guard to cut "redundant force structure to optimize and streamline leadership," per the memo.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Canada a "socialist regime" as he cast doubt on the possibility of President Trump striking a trade deal with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney when they meet on Tuesday.

Why it matters: Carney defiantly declared the previous relationship between the two nations was "over" after his Liberal Party was re-elected last week. It surged on a wave of nationalism in the face of Trump's threats to annex Canada and increased tariffs.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) is urging her fellow Democrats to focus on the threats posed by China as a way to sharpen their message that President Trump's first 100 days have left Americans less safe.

Why it matters: Democrats are struggling to find a unified and coherent message to challenge Trump's plans to impose tariffs and cut foreign aid.

For the fourth time this year, a term-limited governor is saying a hard "NO" to the Senate, dealing big blows to party leaders John Thune (R-S.D.) and Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.).

Why it matters: The governor-to-Senate pipeline is reversing this cycle.

Senate Democrats have invited New York Times columnist Ezra Klein and Democratic data guru David Shor to talk to senators at their annual one-day issues retreat on Wednesday, sources tell Axios.

Why it matters: Democrats are still processing how they lost the 2024 election and are looking for new ways to appeal to a changing electorate that neither party clearly owns.

The Trump administration announced Monday it's pausing all new federal grant funding for Harvard.

The big picture: The Ivy League university has been at the center of President Trump's escalating war against colleges and universities as he seeks to influence and reorient their priorities through federal funds.