National

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The Uvalde, Texas, school district said Friday it has suspended its entire police force in the latest fallout from the Robb Elementary School shooting earlier this year.

The big picture: The decision comes after 19 students and two teachers died in the mass shooting. The aftermath of the incident was marred by controversy due to the decisions and statements made by local officials and law enforcement.

Details: The Uvalde school district said it "has made the decision to suspend all activities of the Uvalde CISD Police Department for a period of time," according to a press release on Friday.

Officers who are currently employed will take on other roles within the district.

The school district said it will continue to conduct a review with the Texas Police Chiefs Association over the police department's management and organizational policies in order to rebuild the department and hire a new chief of police.

The district said that "recent developments have uncovered additional concerns with department operations."

State of play: Parents have been protesting outside the school district calling for the district to suspend officers, per the Texas Tribune.

“I am asking … get these officers off of these campuses until it is proved whether or not they were justified in sitting outside of the classroom for 77 minutes,” said Brett Cross, whose nephew died in the shooting, according to the Tribune.

Zoom out: The aftermath of the Uvalde shooting was packed with confusion and claims of a "cover-up" scheme, leading to distrust of local officials.

Steven McCraw, director of the Texas Department of Public Safety, said in the immediate aftermath that the on-scene commander made "the wrong decision" by not entering the school sooner to confront the shooter.

In late September, the families of three children who survived the shooting filed a lawsuit against the school district, law enforcement officials and gun makers.

In the complaint, the families allege that these entities showed negligence, recklessness and failure over the shooting.

What's next: The Uvalde school district said it has requested the Texas Department of Public Safety to provide additional officers for campus and extra-curricular activities.

"We are confident that staff and student safety will not be compromised during this transition," the district said.

Editor's note: This story was updated with additional details.

Uvalde, Texas, school district suspends police force in shooting fallout

The district said it "has made the decision to suspend all activities of the Uvalde CISD Police Department for a period of time."

A view of the faculty parking lot of Flores elementary surrounded by the 8 foot tall fencing the school district as students go back to school months after deadly US shooting in Uvalde, Texas.

A view of the faculty parking lot of Flores elementary in Uvalde, Texas. Photo: Pedro Salazar/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Uvalde, Texas school shooting

The United States did not have any new intel about Russia and nuclear weapons before President Biden's stark "Armageddon" warning, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said Friday.

The big picture: Biden warned Thursday that the U.S. faces the highest chance of  "Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis" after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a veiled nuclear threat last month.

What she said: "The president was speaking about concerns about Putin's threats to use nuclear weapons," Pierre said.

"We have not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture," she added. "Nor do we have indications that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons."

Flashback: Biden's "Armageddon" comments came after Putin promised at the end of September to use "all the means at our disposal" to protect Russia.

Russia's military on Thursday fired seven missiles into residential buildings in Zaporizhzhia, which is home to Europe's largest nuclear power plant.

Biden said at a fundraiser Thursday night that Putin "is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming," 

"First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going," he added.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Biden's warning was "an appeal to start yet another world war with unpredictable, monstrous consequences," according to RIA, a Russian state-owned news agency, per Reuters.

Go deeper: Biden: Putin could escalate "prospect of Armageddon" with nuclear weapons

 Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional reporting.

White House: Biden's "Armageddon" warning not based on any new intel

President Biden warned that the United States faces the highest chance of  "Armageddon." since the Cuba missile crisis.

An image of Russian President Vladimir Putin is displayed as U.S. President Joe Biden speaks.

Image of Russian President Vladimir Putin is displayed as President Biden speaks. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

White House

Atlanta

Atlanta Alerts

Atlanta Members

A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Atlanta. Written by Emma Hurt, Kristal Dixon and Thomas Wheatley.

Axios Atlanta Thought Bubble

Axios Atlanta

Stacey Abrams raises $8 million more than Brian Kemp in Georgia race

Yes, but: Abrams has about $4 million less cash on hand than Kemp.

Photo: Dustin Chambers/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Stacey Abrams

New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) declared a state of emergency on Friday to respond to migrants arriving in the city on buses primarily from Texas.

Why it matters: Adams said at least 17,000 asylum seekers have been bused to New York City from other parts of the country since April and claimed that many of the people didn't know where they were going when they boarded the buses.

New York City officials have previously said they were not prepared to handle the influx of migrants. Adams requested federal assistance in August.

As part of the state of emergency, Adams issued an executive order that directs all relevant city agencies to coordinate their efforts to respond to the asylum seeker humanitarian crisis and build emergency response and relief centers around the city.

The city has received an average of five to six buses per day since September, Adams said, with at least nine arriving on Thursday. 

New York City expects to spend $1 billion by the end of the fiscal year on helping the asylum seekers find long-term shelter and health care, he added.

What he's saying: "This is a humanitarian crisis that started with violence and instability in South America, and it is being accelerated by American political dynamics," Adams said.

"The majority are adults, who cannot legally work in this country. Many are families with school-age children. Some are in desperate need of serious medical care," he added.

"We have not asked for this. There was never any agreement to take on the job of supporting thousands of asylum seekers. This responsibility was simply handed to us without warning as buses began showing up." 

"We're going to do what we have to do in New York, but we do need help to deal with this crisis that we're facing."

The big picture: Texas Gov. Greg Abbott and other Republican governors started sending migrants to Democrat-led cities as part of a protest against the Biden Administration's border policies.

Texas had spent more than $12 million sending migrants to New York and the District of Columbia as of the end of August.

Adams' office recently attempted to contact Abbott's office to coordinate Texas’ plans to bus migrants to the city, though those efforts were rebuffed, according to the Texas Tribune.

Adams has previously criticized Abbott for organizing the buses, saying he is using "innocent people as political pawns to manufacture a crisis." 

Go deeper: Where GOP governors are transporting migrants

Editor's note: This story has been updated with details throughout.

NYC Mayor Adams declares state of emergency over migrant buses

The city expects to spend $1 billion to help the asylum seekers by the end of the fiscal year, Adams said.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams speaking in September 2022.

New York City Mayor Eric Adams speaking in September 2022. Photo: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg via Getty Images

New York City

The U.S. economy added 263,000 payrolls in September, while the unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.5% — a half-century low, the government said on Friday.

Why it matters: Monthly job gains have slowed from the breakneck pace that defined the pandemic recovery. But the labor market so far remains on solid footing and companies still have strong demand for workers.

In an attempt to put a lid on decades-high inflation, the Fed has upped interest rates at a rapid pace: five times since March, including three consecutive hikes by three-quarters of a percentage point each, a super-sized amount.

Fed officials see slower jobs growth as a welcome development in their war on inflation. They are looking for signs of waning demand across the economy, including in the labor market.

Chair Jerome Powell warned there would be "pain" ahead for households as the Fed tries to bring inflation down.

Driving the news: September's jobs gains were roughly in line with what economists expected. It's a slight slowdown from the 315,000 jobs added in August.

Average hourly earnings, a proxy for wage growth, rose by 0.3% in September — the same pace as the prior month.

The share of people working or looking for work, known as the labor force participation rate, was largely unchanged at 62.3%.

U.S. economy adds 263,000 jobs in September

Monthly job gains have slowed from the breakneck pace that defined the pandemic recovery.

A "now hiring" sign at a Home Depot store in San Rafael, CA. Photo: Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Jobs report

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

President Joe Biden announced Thursday he will pardon everyone convicted of simple marijuana possession under federal law — and he’s urging governors to do the same. More than 6,500 people were convicted of simple possession between 1992 and 2021 under federal law, and thousands more under District of Columbia code. It’s a big move by Biden a month ahead of the midterms — what does it mean for messaging for Democrats and Republicans?

Plus, a devastating attack rocks Thailand.

And, the U.S. imposes more sanctions on Iran as protests continue.

Guests:  Axios’ Josh Kraushaar and Mike Allen.

Credits: Axios Today is produced by Niala Boodhoo, Sara Kehaulani Goo, Alexandra Botti, Lydia McMullen-Laird, Fonda Mwangi and Alex Sugiura. Music is composed by Evan Viola. You can reach us at podcasts@axios.com. You can text questions, comments and story ideas to Niala as a text or voice memo to 202-918-4893.

Biden to pardon all prior federal offenses of simple marijuana possession

U.S. issues more sanctions against officials in Iran as government crackdown persists

At least 37 killed in mass shooting at Thailand child care center

Here’s what we are covering today: a devastating attack rocks Thailand. Plus, the U.S. imposes more sanctions on Iran as protests continue.

But first: the political State of Play, just over a month till election day. That’s our One Big Thing.

NIALA: President Joe Biden announced yesterday that he’ll pardon everyone convicted of simple marijuana possession under federal law, and he's urging state governors to do the same. More than 6,500 people were convicted of simple possession between 1992 and 2021 under federal law, and thousands more under DC code.

It's a big move by the president a month ahead of the midterms and Axios Co-founder Mike Allen and Senior Politics Correspondent Josh Kraushaar are here to explain that and other big politics stories this week. It's our Friday State of Play. Mike, Josh, thanks for being with me.

NIALA: Josh, the Biden administration is also planning to review marijuana's classification as a Schedule one drug. What does all of this mean for midterm messaging? 

JOSH: Look I think this is an issue that the White House is doing because they wanna excite the base of the parties, particularly younger voters that are following this issue very closely. And look the, there already has been a reaction from a big Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman, who has campaigned on this issue. And, it's an issue he's been talking about in this crucial Senate race in Pennsylvania. So, this is something that could very well excite them and help Democrats on the margins.

MIKE ALLEN: Josh. That's a great point. And it's a little bit of a peaceful student loans, right? And you look at data and you realize how important young voters are to Democrats, and all of a sudden you see more clearly a lot of these debates and decisions coming outta the White House.

NIALA: Speaking of student loans, the Mitch McConnell aligned super PAC is running an ad North Carolina attacking Democrat senate nominee Cheri Beasley for supporting President Biden's student loan forgiveness plan. How are we seeing messaging about student loans playing out here?

JOSH: Republicans attacked President Biden's decision to forgive a whole lot of student loans, but they hadn't really spent a whole lot of money on TV ads. You now see in a very close Senate race in North Carolina, the biggest super PAC in the country, the Senate Leadership Fund, is actually using this message attacking a democrat for supporting that student loan forgiveness. They’re  framing it as an issue of fairness. We're only seeing it in North Carolina right now. But it is, it raises the question in the final month, we may see more of this to come.

MIKE: And Josh, fascinating the first head about student loans came from Republicans, not Democrats.

JOSH: Yeah, I mean I was just in New Hampshire and it was remarkable when I asked this issue to every Democrat on the ballot they all either criticized President Biden or sort of didn't want to talk about the student loan issue.

NIALA: I'm guessing Democrats also don't wanna talk about Hunter Biden, but the President's son was also in the news yesterday, the Washington Post reporting that federal agents investigating Hunter Biden have gathered sufficient evidence to charge him with tax crimes in a false statement related to a gun purchase. Mike, let's just one final thought on messaging when it comes to the midterms and Hunter Biden.

MIKE: Yeah, Niala, the texts that I got after this news broke were all hell of a leak a month out from the midterms. And of course we don't know the motive of the sources for this story, but it injects a last minute topic that of course Democrats, White House wouldn't want yet another October surprise. We're getting to have kind of a long list. It was an issue that Republicans loved to talk about, Democrats never talked about. Now no one has a choice.

NIALA: Okay, we are chatting with Axios’ Mike Allen and Josh Kraushaar, and we will be back in a moment to continue our conversation about the political state of play leading up to the midterms.

NIALA: Welcome back to Axios Today. I'm Niala Boodhoo. I'm talking politics with Axios’ co-founder Mike Allen and senior politics correspondent Josh Kraushaar. 

Josh, we're starting to see a lot of Senate candidates in key battleground states like Arizona and Nevada getting cut loose by their national allies. What's happening here?

JOSH: Nevada's just a fascinating state, Niala, because it's looking like a really good year for Republicans in Nevada. We have reporting about the Senate candidate Adam Laxalt leading already against Senator Cortez Masto. You have the governor's race, Republicans think that is their best pickup opportunity to win a governorship in Nevada. 

But when it comes to this one house race, in Nevada, the Republicans nominated a very far right Trump loyalist in a swing district, and not a single Republican group is putting a dollar behind him because they don't think he can win. They think that extremism doesn't sell even if it is a good political environment. So there are a lot of other candidates like that on both sides that are getting left out, and we're giving a sneak preview on those races where the triage is already taking place.

NIALA: Mike, can we end with a forward look, the January 6th committee's hearing that was rescheduled because of Hurricane Ian is now happening next Thursday. We started this conversation talking about messaging. Where does the January 6th committee fit into that for Democrats and Republicans?

MIKE: Niala, the January 6th committee has set a very high bar for itself. These hearings have been so surprising, so captivating, and I can tell you from my conversations behind the scenes, they want a big finish. So they're gonna make sure that there's plenty to chew on from this hearing. Then there's a written report that's gonna be a publishing event, people in the publishing industry tell me they haven't seen anything like the interest in this report since the star report, the Monica Lewinsky report during the Clinton administration. So multiple additions, of course it's a public document, and then at the end of the year the committee goes outta business.

NIALA: Mike Allen is Axios’ co-founder. Josh Kraushaar is Axios’ Senior Political Correspondent. Thank you both for joining me.

NIALA: Niala, have the best holiday weekend.

NIALA: Before we go, some headlines from around the world –

In Thailand at least 37 people — including at least 22 children — were killed in a mass shooting and knife attack at a child care center yesterday. The gunman has been identified by authorities as a former police officer who has been in court earlier that day related to drug charges. 

He shot several officials working at the childcare center. Witnesses also saw him wielding a knife. Most of the children, who were between the ages of 2 and 5, were stabbed to death. 

After the attack at the child care center he killed his wife and child and then himself. 

The attacks raising questions about the future of gun violence in the country – where mass shootings are relatively rare, but where gun ownership on average is higher than in neighboring countries. 

The U.S. imposes more sanctions on Iran as protests continue

NIALA: And the US has imposed more sanctions on Iranian officials, in response to the death of a 22-year old Mahsa Amini. Amini died in the custody of Iran’s morality police last month after being arrested for wearing her hijab too loosely and showing some hair.

Protests have been engulfing the country for the past three weeks since Amini’s death… including schoolgirls removing their head coverings and chanting “death to the dictator.”  That’s audio from the BBC. 

The unprecedented protests have been met with a systematic crackdown, at least 154 people have been killed since the protests began, according to the Norway-based non-profit Iran Human Rights. And at least 35 journalists have been detained according to the Committee to Protect Journalists. 

NIALA: Finally yesterday, French writer Annie Ernaux has won the Nobel Prize in Literature. Ernaux is the 17th woman to receive the prize, which has been given to 119 writers since 1901. 

In her more than 20 books she has written about her own life, including on her upbringing in post World War 2 France, an illegal abortion she had the 1960s, and her extramarital affair.  Nobel prizes will continue to be announced through October 10th. 

That’s all for this week. Axios Today is produced by Fonda Mwangi, Lydia McMullen-Laird, and Robin Linn. Our sound engineer is Alex Sugiura and Ben O’Brien. Alexandra Botti is our supervising producer. Sara Kehaulani Goo is Axios’ editor in chief. And special thanks as always to Axios co-founder Mike Allen.

I’m Niala Boodhoo. We’ll be off Monday for Indigenous People’s Day – enjoy your day, stay safe, and we’re back with the news on Tuesday. 

NIALA: The day that Richard Nixon gave a speech about his dog. The time that a war broke out over a pig farm. The very first time that a district got gerrymandered. Check out This Day In Esoteric Political History from Radiotopia. Short, fun episodes, three times a week, with surprising stories from our political past, and how they connect to our current moment. Get it wherever you listen to podcasts.

State of Play: One month out from midterms

The political State of Play, one month to election day.

Midterm elections 2022

Axios Today

Midterm Elections 2022

Podcasts

Innovations in artificial intelligence are making it faster and cheaper for political campaigns to identify, turn out and extract money from voters.

The big picture: Consultants for both major parties are hoovering up voter data to hone advanced fundraising and persuasion tactics. These data tools are especially useful in down-ballot local races.

Consultants say they can dramatically improve campaigning by asking machines to synthesize huge amounts of data — from incomes to consumer purchasing habits — to predict how individuals will donate and vote.

What's happening: A host of consultancies are now marketing their use of AI and machine learning to boost political clients.

The Sterling Data Company, a Democratic firm, says it can more than double digital fundraising performance in the immediate term.

Numinar, a Republican startup, touts highly effective voter modeling and predictive capabilities.

Veteran Democratic fundraiser Anne Lewis' firm, MissionWired, recently unveiled a fundraising product called AdvantageAI.

What they're saying: "This is a super-weapon that Democrats have," boasted Martin Kurucz, Sterling's managing partner, who says his firm has worked with about 1,000 Democratic campaigns and political committees. 

"It's probably one of the most overlooked reasons why the Democrats are winning the small-dollar fundraising wars against Republicans," he said.

Numinar says it's worked with nearly 300 political clients this cycle, and FEC records show payments from some key Senate and House campaigns this year.

"AI and machine learning can actually help these campaigns, 80% of which are down-ballot local races, make a pretty big difference in how their races perform," Will Long, Numinar's founder, told Axios in an interview.

How it works: Each company in the space uses massive amounts of political and consumer data to feed an ever-improving algorithm that can predict voter or donor behavior.

Sterling uses the tech to hone fundraising tactics tailored to each of its clients, the company says in its marketing materials:

"No data analyst in the world could look at over 500 variables, from household income to magazine subscriptions, and determine what factor played the biggest role in the success (or failure) of a fundraising campaign and rework the targeting to maintain or improve results — especially not in less than a minute."

AI-based software also makes it much easier for firms to identify new donors — people who are calculated to have the highest propensity to give to a campaign.

And Numinar says its ability to predict how a given voter will vote makes its services highly valuable to campaigns attempting to more efficiently allocate scarce resources.

Reality check: Some political pros are skeptical, describing it as more of a marketing gimmick than a true advance in political data technology.

"Some folks are using artificial intelligence as a game changer. And then there are a lot of people that are using artificial intelligence and machine learning in order to sell a product," said Mark Jablonowski, a Democratic digital strategist.

Asked about the trend, one veteran Republican consultant facetiously texted a GIF labeling it "magic." He described AI in the political world as "a catch-all BS word."

Yes, but: Numinar's Long acknowledged the term can be misused but said AI is an accurate descriptor of some of the highly advanced technology being deployed in political races across the country.

"We actually are using machine learning in a very core, fundamental way," he said, pointing to internal voter models that improve every time the firm feeds new data — provided by its political clients — into those models.

The bottom line: Whether you prefer to call it AI, machine learning or old-fashioned data-crunching, the technology underlying political campaigns is rapidly improving.

"Every election cycle, political data, analytics, and modeling grow by leaps and bounds," Jablonowski said. "The types of models created and the inputs that go into them increase tremendously."

AI becomes a political "super-weapon"

Whose most likely to vote or give the most? The algorithm knows.

Illustration of a dollar sign made of binary code changing into a checkmark made of binary code.

Artificial intelligence

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

President Biden warned Thursday that the Russian invasion of Ukraine invites the highest nuclear "prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis."

Why it matters: Kremlin officials hinted at using nuclear weapons ahead of Russian President Vladimir Putin signing laws Wednesday claiming the annexation of Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia, vowing to defend the Ukrainian regions as Russian territory.

Russian forces do not fully control any of those four regions and have suffered a series of major setbacks eight months into the invasion, as Ukraine's military advances in the country's south and northeast.

Biden's comments come after Russian forces fired seven missiles into residential buildings on Thursday in the city of Zaporizhzhia — home to Europe's largest nuclear power station.

Details: "Putin is "not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming," Biden said at a fundraiser Thursday.

"We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis," he added.

"First time since the Cuban missile crisis, we have a direct threat of the use nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going."

"I'm trying to figure out what is Putin's off ramp?" he said. "Where does he find a way out? Where does he find himself in a position that he does not not only lose face but lose significant power within Russia?"

"I don't think there's any such thing as the ability to easily [use] a tactical nuclear weapon and not end up with Armageddon."

What they're saying: Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Biden's comments were "an appeal to start yet another world war with unpredictable, monstrous consequences," according to the Russian state-owned RIA news agency.

Worth noting: White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday the U.S. had "not seen any reason to adjust our own strategic nuclear posture, nor do we have indication that Russia is preparing to imminently use nuclear weapons."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier Thursday Putin "understands that after the use of nuclear weapons he would be unable any more to preserve, so to speak, his life, and I'm confident of that."

The big picture: As Zelensky spoke of Ukrainian forces recapturing dozens of settlements and roughly 195 square miles in the southern Kherson region and "successes in the eastern direction" since the start of October, a key Russian-installed leader in Ukraine publicly criticized "generals and ministers" in Moscow Thursday.

Kirill Stremousov, deputy head of the Russian-controlled areas of the Kherson region, suggested in a video address that Putin's defense minister "should consider killing himself" due to military failures in Ukraine, Reuters notes.

Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of Russians have fled to neighboring countries since Putin issued a mobilization order and Alaskan officials said Thursday two had requested asylum in the U.S. after arriving in the state by boat.

What we're watching: The Biden administration announced this week a new $625 million security assistance package for Ukraine, which last week announced it was accelerating its bid to join NATO.

Go deeper: U.S. officials warn the Kremlin over nuclear weapons talk

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Biden: Putin could escalate "prospect of Armageddon" with nuclear weapons

Biden warned that Putin might turn to nuclear weapons amid major setbacks in recent weeks.

Photo of Vladimir Putin and Joe Biden speaking

Combination images of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who turned 70 on Friday, and President Biden. Photos: Contributor and Chip Somodevilla via Getty Images

Joe Biden

Ukraine

Russia

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

A Michigan man involved in a plot to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) in 2020 was sentenced to four years in prison on Thursday, federal prosecutors announced.

The big picture: Kaleb Franks, 28, of Waterford, who pleaded guilty earlier this year to conspiring to kidnap the Michigan governor, had faced up to life in prison. But his sentence was reduced due to such factors as testifying at two federal trials, per a Department of Justice statement.

Michigan man sentenced to 4 years over plot to kidnap Gov. Whitmer

Kaleb Franks pleaded guilty and testified at trials earlier this year on the plan to abduct the Michigan governor.

Friday's politics & policy stories