National

Four years later, it’s still easy to hate on the polls. Even if they called the presidential race "right" this time, the national polls vastly underestimated support for President Trump once again, leading to a major industry soul searching about how to fix some fundamental problems.

Why it matters: Without data to provide a beacon for elections, there isn’t much else to go on.

With a sharply divided public consuming increasingly partisan-skewed information, America has depended on data and statistics to provide clarity and reasonable expectations going into elections. 

Trust in the numbers has largely been eroded, and now they're more subject to partisan attack and spinning.

They're even under attack from Trump, who baselessly claimed that "fake polls" showing Joe Biden with a big lead were "designed to keep our voters at home, create the illusion of momentum for Biden, and diminish Republicans' ability to raise funds."

Be smart: Pollsters privately acknowledge the huge problem, but publicly say they need the final vote tallies to begin the autopsy. Biden is currently winning by 3% of the popular vote, and an average of national polls gave him a 8.4% lead.

Conventional political wisdom that the Democrats would take over power in the Senate also was based on faulty polls that missed down ballot race projections, too.

“Let’s pump the brakes a bit” before we indict the whole industry, said Courtney Kennedy, director of survey research at Pew Research Center and an author of the industry’s 2016 autopsy report. 

Forget the “shy Trump voter” narrative. Before the election, pollsters were worried that perhaps some Trump voters surveyed were simply too embarrassed to tell people that they were voting for him.

The real problem is even worse. Virtually every poll did not survey enough Trump supporters, period — meaning there’s a huge sampling error the industry needs to reckon with.

“We’ve been struggling with this issue and we keep trying to fix it and it’s not totally working,” said one worried pollster who did not want to be named for fear of ruining his industry.

It’s called “non response,” meaning pollsters are not getting enough Trump voters to even participate in a survey and answer questions. 

This isn’t just a phone call survey problem. It's in online surveys and text surveys, too.

“The major problem, the fundamental issue in the polling industry is declining response rate,” said Jon Cohen, chief research officer at SurveyMonkey.  

Another twist on this is not capturing enough “non-college educated voters” who were missing from 2016 surveys. The 2020 election proved Trump expanded his voter turnout in new demographic groups, and still polls missed them.

Another continuing culprit: state polls. As we have written before, poorly conducted state surveys were to blame for misleading the public. Biden managed to flip Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania, but polls still overestimated enthusiasm for Biden in those states and others that were considered on the bubble.

“Before Election Day, it seemed to me that, sure, some polls might not have enough Trump supporters but that was okay if a poll was statistically adjusted properly to make it representative,” said Kennedy.

“The question looming now is whether that’s true. It’s not clear that the polls checked all the boxes and had good statistical adjustments and whether they still worked.”

The bottom line: It may be months before we learn why the polls failed to meet the public’s expectations in 2020, but two clear problem areas have been problems for a long time.

Worried pollsters admit huge problem

It's searching for solutions to fundamental problems after underestimating Trump's support again.

Illustration of a ballot filled in to create a question mark

Politics

Polls

2020 election

Joe Biden

Four years later, it’s still easy to hate on the polls. Even if they called the presidential race &quot;right&quot; this time, the national polls vastly underestimated support for President Trump once again, leading to a major industry soul searching about how to fix some fundamental problems.Why it matters: Without data to provide a beacon for elections, there isn’t much else to go on.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Data: Axios/Ipsos poll; Note: ±2.4% margin of error; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

A strong majority of Americans say our public education system is unequal, and half say the nation's schools aren't well equipped to help children of all races and ethnicities succeed, according to a new Axios-Ipsos survey.

Why it matters: As our nation becomes more diverse and confronts racial discrimination, Americans want our school systems to live up to the promise of providing a more equal opportunity for all children to succeed.

Eight in 10 Americans say public education is unequal, with different outcomes based on where students live. 

They’re not wrong. Our survey confirmed what some academic studies have shown: wide disparities in access to high quality education, funding, college prep courses and counseling services. These inequalities track along socioeconomic and racial lines.

That disparity has only grown during the pandemic, as online learning has exposed the haves and have-nots of America’s K-12 system, with poorer districts struggling. Meanwhile, most private schools are providing in-person classroom learning.

Americans are divided on whether schools are equipped to help children of all racial and ethnic backgrounds "get ahead," with 51% saying they agree with that statement while 48% disagree.

The big picture: While a majority of Americans rate their own educational experience as "good" or "excellent," they also say the time has come to provide a more accurate picture of our nation's history.

A majority, 68% percent, agree with the statement that "Public schools in America should teach more about racism as a part of American history lessons."

Overall, a majority of Americans (77%) say what they learned in school about American history was accurate, while 23% said it was not accurate. White Americans (84%) were most likely to say what they learned was accurate, while just 55% of Black Americans think so.

What they're saying: “There is a broad recognition that most Americans have not learned enough about the role of Black, Hispanic, Native and Asian Americans in building this country," said Chris Jackson, senior vice president of public affairs at Ipsos. "Despite some of the culture war heat, most Americans appear to want a broader curriculum about all our founders.”

White and Asian Americans are far more likely to say they attended a “top-rated” school with “sufficient funding” when compared with Black or Hispanic Americans. The survey did not have a large enough sample size to provide data for Native Americans.

Overall, Hispanic/Latino Americans were the group least likely to rate their education experience as well-funded, top-rated or safe. 

67% of white Americans and 62% of Asian Americans say they attended a “top-rated” school, compared with just 53% of Hispanic Americans and 57% of Black Americans.

Hispanic Americans were most likely to say they attended a school that was not safe. One in 4 said that, compared with just 9% of white Americans and 7% of Asian Americans. 15% of Black Americans said their school was not safe.

Half of Black Americans and 45% of Hispanic Americans said there was a police presence at their school, compared with just a third of white and Asian students. 

Similarly, 57% of Black students and 55% of Latino/Hispanic students said their schools had “sufficient funding,” compared to 68% of Asian Americans and 77% of white Americans. 

Hispanic/Latino and Black Americans are the least likely to say their K-12 experience prepared them for careers after high school.

Just over a third of Hispanic and Black Americans say they had money to pay for at least a portion of college. A majority of white (59%) and Asian Americans (73%) said they could do so. 

And just 57% of Hispanic/Latino Americans said their schools offered advanced placement or college prep courses, compared with three-fourths of Asian Americans who said the same.

Among Hispanics, a third said no one had talked to them about going to college. That was true for just 1 in 5 white Americans.

The bottom line: A majority of Americans say education is the great equalizer, but through their lived experiences, Americans say we're falling short of that ideal.

About the survey: The Axios-Ipsos survey was conducted in English and Spanish Nov. 4-12 with 1,999 American adults with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. The survey included 718 white Americans, 515 Black Americans, 524 Hispanic Americans and 199 Asian Americans.

Poll: Majority of Americans find inequity in our education system

Half of Americans say schools aren't equipped to help children of all races and ethnicities succeed.

Education

Racism

A strong majority of Americans say our public education system is unequal, and half say the nation&#x27;s schools aren&#x27;t well equipped to help children of all races and ethnicities succeed, according to a new <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Axios-Ipsos survey" data-vars-click-url="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-education-inequity-2020" data-vars-content-id="1a1af17b-8a8a-460e-921e-aee99e30c493" data-vars-headline="Poll: Majority of Americans find inequity in our education system" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/axios-education-inequity-2020" target="_blank">Axios-Ipsos survey</a>.Why it matters: As our nation becomes more diverse and confronts racial discrimination, Americans want our school systems to live up to the promise of providing a more equal opportunity for all children to succeed.

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

From a tragedy, sometimes an awakening is born.

That's what's happening in Maui, where raging wildfires took out the entire town of Lahaina within hours.

The death toll stands at 115, and hundreds are still unaccounted for. More than 2,000 buildings burned and more than 6,000 people were displaced.

The community asks: Where do we go from here?

Why it matters: Now that everything is gone and must be rebuilt, local residents are examining the bigger picture — the balance between locals and tourists, the infrastructure that was supposed to support them, and how to honor the history of what was once the capital of the former Hawaiian kingdom.

What they're saying: "People and land are one and the same, and so the health of our land equals the health of our people," Michelle Kauhane, the chief impact officer at the Hawaii Community Foundation, told ABC News.

The foundation is raising funds and providing direct aid to Maui residents. She said the tragedy was an "eye opener" about the state of the land and its resources.

Zoom in: On an island where the average home costs over $1 million, the fire adds urgency to easing a housing crisis that was already squeezing out many longtime residents. ​​

"This is an opportunity for our government to step in and make right by the people who have been wronged for so long," Keani Rawlins-Fernandez, a Maui County Council member, told the Washington Post. "This shouldn't be a land grab."

Zoom out: Native Hawaiians point out that Lahaina and other parts of Maui haven't always been this dry — or full of invasive grasses that are inclined to accelerate wildfires. 

Lahaina was once a lush area with an enormous pond that is now filled in with a baseball park. Up the mountain, sugar barons diverted the water to irrigate their sugar cane plantations, letting Lahaina dry up. 

Besides rethinking the island's electrical infrastructure, locals are asking officials to reexamine water resources.

As Maui officials and residents welcome back visitors, they encourage tourists to be respectful, not to visit the Lahaina area and consider volunteering.

The bottom line: It will take months and years for Maui residents, officials and business owners to sort through these bigger issues.

But as anyone who's lost a loved one knows, in loss, you appreciate what you had even more, and what really matters tends to come into focus. 

Perhaps the only way for Maui to rebuild is to be intentional about doing better for the community going forward.

Out of the ashes

How Maui is rebuilding its communities and economy after devastating wildfires

On the beach near Lahaina, last week. Photo: Tamir Kalifa for The Washington Post via Getty Images

Hawaii

From a tragedy, sometimes an awakening is born.That&#x27;s what&#x27;s happening in Maui, where <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="raging wildfires" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/11/why-maui-wildfires-deadly" data-vars-content-id="89ece7e3-d290-4ab0-9fc3-fb0b2512a40c" data-vars-headline="Out of the ashes" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/11/why-maui-wildfires-deadly" target="_self">raging wildfires</a> took out the entire town of Lahaina within hours.<ul><li>The death toll stands at 115, and hundreds are still unaccounted for. More than 2,000 buildings burned and more than 6,000 people were displaced.</li><li>The community asks: Where do we go from here?</li></ul>

Data: Hawai'i Tourism Authority; Map: Axios Visuals

One month after wildfires in Hawai'i ravaged the entire town of Lahaina and other parts of Maui, the local community is suffering a fresh layer of hardship on top of the trauma: a severe economic downturn.

The big picture: Locals and government officials have a new message: Come to Hawai'i, come to Maui. But be respectful and don't try to visit the Lahaina area or west side of the island.

Why it matters: Most of Hawai'i's residents depend on tourism to pay the bills. 

Many on Maui have seen work hours cut or business drop off while they're also trying to bury the dead and help others in need.

Most everyone knows someone who lost a loved one or whose home was burned down.

Catch up quick: More than 300 people are still unaccounted for, and the government continues to plead with families with missing relatives to provide DNA samples.

About 1,700 schoolchildren aren't enrolled because their schools burned down.

6,000 residents whose homes burned down are living in hotels.

The Hawai'i Tourism Authority says the drop in tourism is costing the entire state $9 million per day. "They need to know it's OK. ... And by coming, you're supporting Maui's economy. You're supporting Maui's ability to recover," the group's spokesperson T. Ilihia Gionson told Hawai'i News Now.

A new map by the agency shows hotels on the west side of Maui not accepting reservations but other parts of the island are "open."

The state agency's board last week approved a $2.6 million new marketing plan to encourage "respectful, compassionate, responsible travel" to Maui.

Between the lines: The state's new message may help address confusion for tourists, who aren't sure what's an appropriate way to enjoy a vacation.

"I'm trying to be respectful and have ridden the roller coaster of 'don't come' to 'please come' these past few weeks but now I'm more confused than ever and wonder if I should just cancel completely after all," wrote one member of the Facebook group "Maui Friends," asking locals for advice.

Another person answered her: "We are going through all the stages of grief on a public stage. Grief is hard to go through, and hard to observe. But most people here, we appreciate visitors coming, especially when they come with aloha so we can give them aloha."

Maui's message to tourists: Don't stay away after wildfires

Many on Maui have seen hours cut or business drop off, while also trying to bury the dead and help others in need.

One month after <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="wildfires in Hawai&#x27;i" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/16/maui-wildfire-death-toll-missing" data-vars-content-id="b1ae0af2-9263-480f-9a8c-4e6ddaa6ef94" data-vars-headline="Maui&#x27;s message to tourists: Don&#x27;t stay away after wildfires" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/16/maui-wildfire-death-toll-missing" target="_self">wildfires in Hawai&#x27;i</a> ravaged the entire town of Lahaina and other parts of Maui, the local community is suffering a fresh layer of hardship on top of the trauma: a severe economic downturn.The big picture: Locals and government officials have a new message: Come to Hawai&#x27;i, come to Maui. But be respectful and don&#x27;t try to visit the Lahaina area or west side of the island.

The U.S. is "far worse off than you think" when it comes to social media undermining its democracy, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and journalist Maria Ressa told Axios.

Why it matters: Ressa, a Filipino American co-founder of news organization Rappler, says the next wave of elections around the world, including the U.S. midterms in November, provides another opportunity for social media to spread disinformation, divide people against one another and incite violence.

"Most people, they don't realize they're being manipulated, that these platforms are biased against facts. You don't get facts. It's toxic sludge. Social media encourages anger, hate, conspiracy theories. There's violence," and it's getting worse, Ressa said in an exclusive interview ahead of a Tuesday speech in Honolulu at the East-West Center International Media Conference.

"Online violence is real-world violence," Ressa says, citing incidents around the world, including the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and recent mass shootings by radicalized killers.

She argues nations need to require accountability for tech firms like Meta, which owns Facebook, and Twitter.

Catch up quick: Ressa was co-awarded the 2021 Nobel Peace Prize with Russian journalist Dmitry Muratov.

Rappler gained recognition for its coverage of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's brutal war on drugs. The news site has also reported on the spread of fake news on social media and the government's use of bots to manipulate public opinion.

Muratov's independent news organization, Novaya Gazeta, ceased publication after Russian President Vladimir Putin cracked down on Russian media outlets that did not support his false narrative about the war waged against Ukraine.

Last week, Muratov sold his Nobel for a record $103.5 million and pledged the proceeds to help Ukrainian children.

Ressa said she has hope that the EU will take steps to regulate social media companies as efforts in the U.S. have stalled. But she warns that the global problem needs global solutions, both in law and practice by social media companies themselves.

When asked what advice she'd give to Elon Musk, who is in the process of buying Twitter, Ressa cautioned the billionaire about the consequences of unchecked free speech.

"There's a reason why, when news organizations were gatekeepers, we had standards and transparency. Free speech unchecked is like a person yelling fire and there’s not a fire. Free speech at all costs has costs."

Since being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, Ressa still faces threats to herself, and Rappler, the media company where she serves as chief executive, still faces several lawsuits from the Filipino government, which has tried to put Rappler out of business for writing critical news coverage.

Now that the Philippines has elected Ferdinand Marcos Jr. as its new president, Ressa said she has received no indication that the incoming president will change course.

"The short answer is it's TBD. Who knows what the new administration will do. If the rule of law wins, these cases [against me and Rappler] will be thrown out. I look forward to a new administration and their upgrading of the rule of law."

Marcos Jr. ran his campaign without answering tough questions from Rappler journalists or other independent news organizations, Ressa said, instead choosing to travel with a team of video bloggers who spun out pro-Marcos stories on social media. He won in May with 59% of the vote.

Ressa argued that social media enables politicians to create their own echo chambers of information, where the truth is irrelevant because a narrative — even full of falsehoods — is more compelling.

What's next: Independent news media "lost" in Russia, Ressa said. She raised concerns about the future of democracy next in Brazil, Kenya, and the U.S., which are dealing with similar threats of fractured information systems and have upcoming elections.

"We will all end up like Russia if we don't do better," Ressa warned.

Nobelist Maria Ressa: Social media is corroding U.S. democracy

The Filipino American journalist sees a global tide of misinformation that demands government action.

Photo of Maria Ressa smiling wearing glasses and a red jacket

 2021 Nobel Peace Prize laureate Maria Ressa in Geneva on May 3, 2022. Photo: Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

Social media

Elon Musk

The U.S. is &quot;far worse off than you think&quot; when it comes to social media undermining its democracy, Nobel Peace Prize laureate and journalist <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Maria Ressa" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/09/29/news-veterans-lead-global-fund-journalism-media" data-vars-content-id="c8d42d0f-fc48-450a-9965-cdaafac66813" data-vars-headline="Nobelist Maria Ressa: Social media is corroding U.S. democracy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/09/29/news-veterans-lead-global-fund-journalism-media" target="_self">Maria Ressa</a> told Axios.Why it matters: Ressa, a Filipino American co-founder of <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="news organization Rappler" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/12/11/press-freedom-journalists-nobel-prize-biden" data-vars-content-id="c8d42d0f-fc48-450a-9965-cdaafac66813" data-vars-headline="Nobelist Maria Ressa: Social media is corroding U.S. democracy" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/12/11/press-freedom-journalists-nobel-prize-biden" target="_self">news organization Rappler</a>, says the next wave of elections around the world, including the U.S. midterms in November, provides another opportunity for social media to spread disinformation, divide people against one another and incite violence.

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

Sara Kehaulani Goo

Stories

Out of the ashes

Maui's message to tourists: Don't stay away after wildfires

Nobelist Maria Ressa: Social media is corroding U.S. democracy

Poll: Majority of Americans find inequity in our education system

Worried pollsters admit huge problem