Axios

HOUSTON — Several top energy executives and a federal regulator had a message Thursday for Americans angry about soaring electricity bills: Help is on the way.

Why it matters: The cost of electricity — which has spiked across much of the country over the past year — has become a top-tier political issue, with Democrats making it a focus of their affordability push.

President Trump extended the deadline for negotiations with Iran and paused his threat to bomb Iranian energy facilities by another 10 days.

Why it matters: The Trump administration through a group of mediators, Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey, has asked Tehran to hold a high-level meeting this week to discuss a U.S. proposal for ending the war.

HOUSTON — The top U.S. electricity regulator publicly prodded tech companies on Thursday to engage more as they race to power a massive buildout of AI data centers.

Why it matters: Big Tech is moving fast to lock in power — but must navigate a slower, more complex grid it doesn't fully understand.

The Middle East conflict wiped out what would have been a modest upgrade to global growth and a stable inflation picture.

• That has been replaced with a fresh warning about soaring energy costs and U.S. prices, which are projected to run far hotter than expected.

Why it matters: What was a more manageable inflation story now looks like a pressure test for central banks that may need to raise interest rates — or hold off on further cuts — even as growth weakens.

HOUSTON — The stunning Middle East supply disruption could lower hurdles to building a long-planned Alaskan gas pipeline and export project that the White House covets.

Why it matters: "That's probably our single most important energy infrastructure project of this whole administration," Energy Secretary Chris Wright said at CERAWeek on Tuesday.

At a Senate hearing earlier this month, economist Martha Gimbel compared a wonky thing, the U.S. Treasury market, to something very relatable, a Hallmark rom-com.

Why it matters: She hit at the essence of what's confounding experts in government debt:

• Why haven't bond investors penalized the U.S. for its erratic policymaking and weakening institutions by meaningfully driving up the country's borrowing costs?

The big picture: Gimbel and other experts believe that the answer is that there's not yet a good alternative to the enormous market for Treasurys, so investors stick with the "cleanest dirty shirt."

• "People think that U.S. Treasurys are the only large safe asset, so people are still buying them," Ugo Panizza, an economist and director of the International Center for Monetary and Banking Studies, told Axios earlier this year.

The U.S. is "currently the boyfriend at the beginning of the Hallmark movie in the big city, where the girlfriend is still going out with him, even though she knows that it's wrong," Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, put it.

• "But at some point, it, she's going to go home to the small town and find the nice firefighter and realize that there's another option."
• "And we don't know when that will happen."

Between the lines: Metaphors are good for getting people's attention on issues that are hard to grasp.

• Gimbel even got a laugh out of the room — no small feat at a hearing before the Senate Subcommittee on Fiscal Responsibility and Economic Growth.

What to watch: If investors ever find a better option than Treasurys, that would be a huge problem given that we are borrowing a lot of money right now.

The latest: The energy shock driven by the Iran war has helped drive up the yields on U.S. debt.

• The MOVE Index, which tracks volatility in the Treasury market, is spiking above its 52-week average — as it has during other moments of economic shock.
• "Investors' concerns include an unsustainable American fiscal position, rising inflation risk and a growing uncertainty about war," RSM chief economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Wednesday.

How it works: There are reasons for investors to be wary of buying sovereign debt.

• Governments are hard to sue, and it's difficult to enforce your claims against them.
• "They can do things that private companies can't, like pass laws and inflate their currencies," Panizza and University of Virginia international law professor Mitu Gulati explained in a piece for Reuters last summer.

Zoom out: That's why the countries that attract the most investors are the trustworthy ones with strong institutions. They are rewarded with lower borrowing costs.

• 17th-century England is the textbook example. It was able to borrow more because it had effective institutions that checked the king's temptations, per a well-known paper from 1989.
• This helped the country become a superpower.

What they're saying: The U.S. is still considered exceptional among investors, says Layna Mosley, a professor of politics and international affairs who directs the Princeton Sovereign Finance Lab.

The bottom line: Investors still see the U.S. as the safest bet around, but if ever a new hometown hottie materializes — watch out.

HOUSTON — Instability is the defining mood at the world's most influential energy gathering this week — playing out in a split screen of oil markets jolted by the Iran war and an AI-supercharged power sector.

Why it matters: The vibe at the CERAWeek conference underscores how quickly the energy landscape has turned unpredictable, leaving billions in investment decisions — and what consumers ultimately pay — hanging in the balance.

Mortgage rates hit their highest point in five months, and mortgage applications plunged last week as escalating borrowing costs cast a heavier pall over the housing market.

Why it matters: The Iran war has triggered energy inflation that's dimming the prospects of interest rate cuts and keeping borrowing costs higher.

HOUSTON — EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin said Wednesday the Trump administration is expanding sales of higher-ethanol gasoline this summer as it seeks to ease concerns over rising gas prices.

Why it matters: Gas with a high ethanol content, known as E15 because its content is up to 15 percent ethanol, is generally restricted in summer because it evaporates easily in the heat and causes air pollution.

HOUSTON — The head of Ukraine's largest private energy company said Wednesday he has plenty of lessons to share with energy companies operating in the Middle East that are scrambling to harden themselves against attacks.

Why it matters: Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK, said making detailed security plans must become the new reality for companies working in dangerous places.

HOUSTON — The glare has never been brighter on Energy Secretary Chris Wright.

Why it matters: Onstage and behind closed doors, he's been seeking to reassure markets and companies spooked by a historic and unpredictable disruption — all while promoting the White House agenda at the CERAWeek conference here.

An epidemic of suspicious trading has emerged around President Trump's most consequential decisions — each time, just minutes or hours before he rattles global markets, according to exchange data.

Why it matters: As the Iran war sends prices soaring for ordinary Americans, a select few appear to be profiting in plain sight. It's precisely the kind of alleged corruption Trump built his political career railing against.

HOUSTON — The power surge fueled by the AI boom is catapulting novel battery storage technologies from niche to mainstream, with dealmaking revealed at a major industry gathering this week.

Why it matters: It's a marriage of urgent needs: The AI sector needs reliable power — fast. Battery companies need deep-pocketed customers.

Iranian officials have told the countries trying to mediate peace talks with the U.S. that they have now been tricked twice by President Trump and "we don't want to be fooled again," according to a source with direct knowledge of those discussions.

The big picture: The U.S. is pushing for in-person peace talks as soon as Thursday in Islamabad, Pakistan. But during the two previous rounds of U.S.-Iran talks, Trump green lit crippling surprise attacks while still claiming to be seeking a deal.