Axios

Housing starts dipped to their lowest level since early in the pandemic, but homebuilder stocks jumped Friday on signals that the White House may be offering carrots to coax builders into action.

Why it matters: The housing market has been mired in a slump after years of price increases and rising mortgage rates, which has helped cool demand and drive builders to the sidelines.

The good news in the December jobs numbers out this morning is in what didn't happen. Employment didn't flatline or go negative. The unemployment rate didn't continue an inexorable rise.

The big picture: At times last year, the wheels appeared to be coming off the U.S. labor market. But the final 2025 employment data points more to stagnation than to further deterioration.

• The job market may not be thriving, but it isn't falling off a cliff, either.
• That will give the Federal Reserve confidence that further interest rate cuts are not needed imminently — such as at its policy meeting later this month — to arrest some steep deterioration in labor market conditions.

The U.S. economy added 50,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment fell to 4.4%, the Labor Department said on Friday.

Why it matters: Last year ended with solid hiring and lower joblessness after months of weak job gains that raised fears about the health of the economy.

Venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, whose past investments included Airbnb and Coinbase, on Friday announced that it raised over $15 billion for a group of new funds.

Why it matters: This is a major boost to the U.S. venture capital market, which just experienced its weakest year for fundraising since 2017.

Higher productivity is often viewed as a synonym for fewer workers. Market strategists, however, say productivity gains driven by AI could actually lead to more jobs.

Why it matters: That would be a boon for the economy and could give the stock market enough steam to extend its rally.

Defense stocks are catching a bid after President Trump announced he is considering a record $1.5 trillion U.S. defense budget. This comes after he floated limits on sector buybacks and dividends, which weighed on stocks.

Why it matters: This exemplifies the guessing game that Wall Street plays regarding policies from the White House, which can fundamentally change the base case for investing in a sector.

Democratic attorneys general from five states sued to block the Trump administration's freeze of child care and social services funding Thursday evening.

Why it matters: The freeze would cut off more than $10 billion in federal money that supports low-income families — and imperil the child care programs, homeless shelters and other services that rely on the cash.

Seventeen Republicans voted with every Democrat to pass a bill to extend enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies for three years.

Why it matters: They acted in rare defiance of President Trump and GOP leaders to pass the measure on a key health care affordability issue ahead of November's midterm elections, piling pressure on the Senate to reach a bipartisan deal.

Macy's is closing 14 stores in its latest round of cuts as the department store chain continues to shrink its footprint, the retailer said Thursday.

Why it matters: The department store chain is betting that fewer stores — and more investment in its strongest locations — can help revive the business.

President Trump will likely select a new Federal Reserve chair this month, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday, as he gave new details on the search for America's next top central banker.

The big picture: In one of the most consequential appointments of his term, Trump has publicly mused about the process and suggested he has already decided. Bessent, who has led the search process, said one of four remaining candidates is yet to be interviewed.

• Rick Rieder, a BlackRock executive, is the remaining finalist to be interviewed, Bessent said.
• White House aide Kevin Hassett and former Fed governor Kevin Warsh are thought to be the leading candidates, and current Fed governor Christopher Waller has also interviewed.

Glencore on Thursday said that it's in "preliminary discussions" to be acquired by Rio Tinto, in what could create the world's largest mining company.

Why it matters: This could have a major impact on the market for critical metals, including copper and iron.

The IRS will kick off tax season later this month as major new tax provisions take effect, potentially changing how millions of Americans file — and what they owe.

Why it matters: It's the first filing season reflecting changes from the One, Big, Beautiful Bill, which could affect taxpayers' refund amounts, credits and deductions compared with last year.

Avelo Airlines is cutting ties with ICE less than a year after inking a deal to carry out deportations for the agency.

Why it matters: Avelo appears to be the only commercial airline carrying out full aircraft deportation flights on a regular schedule for ICE, the AP noted last year.

The worsening U.S. penny shortage has prompted the Federal Reserve to resume accepting penny deposits on Jan. 14 at more coin distribution locations.

Why it matters: The move could ease checkout friction for cash-paying shoppers, where a lack of coins has led to rounding, confusion and longer lines.

A new retail development has officially broken ground in one of California's fastest-growing cities following years of collaboration with city partners and local stakeholders.

Why it's important: Beaumont adds thousands of new residents each year, but currently has limited retail infrastructure.

• Residents are vocal about the need for more grocery, convenience, dining and daily-needs options close to home — and Oak Valley Village responds directly to that need.

The Trump administration and the Federal Reserve are both counting on a 2025 productivity boom continuing through 2026 and fueling a continued growth surge.

• There are two key risks: One is that it doesn't happen; the other is that it does.

The big picture: Companies have been able to grow output rapidly over the last couple of years — including in the most recent quarterly reading out Thursday morning — without needing much more labor to do it.

President Trump's latest command economy performance is aimed at large institutional investors in single-family homes, pledging to block them from buying more.

Why it matters: This is his first public break with private equity since returning to office, and a rare time when he might find common ground with Democrats.

Microsoft is pushing shopping and checkout directly into its Copilot assistant, a move that could reshape where e-commerce transactions happen and who controls the funnel.

Why it matters: Big Tech is racing to turn AI assistants into the front door of the internet.

AI and military needs could worsen what's already shaping up as a looming copper supply gap in coming decades, new analysis finds.

Why it matters: Copper supply is foundational to energy transition including EVs and renewables — even as traditional uses like construction and machinery grow, as you can see above.

Five days after the toppling of Nicolás Maduro, let's take stock of knowns and unknowns about Venezuela's oil and White House plans.

Why it matters: The White House sees control of Venezuela's oil as a pillar of its hemispheric strategy — and a big U.S. business opening.

Investors are getting more discerning about AI, looking for companies that will define, and make money from, the next phase of the buildout.

Why it matters: The AI winners of 2026 will be determined by who can prove a return on their investment in the technology.

President Trump said Wednesday that he would seek to ban institutional investment in single-family homes, then shortly after said he'd work to ban defense companies from offering dividends or doing buybacks.

• Stocks in both sectors sold off as a result. More on that below.

Why it matters: Such moves from the Trump economic playbook are only going to ramp up as the midterms draw near. Here's how investors can find clarity in the noise.

Here's what's new on HBO Max, Netflix, Peacock, Paramount+, Apple TV+, Hulu, BET+ and Prime Video.

What we're watching: New seasons of "The Pitt" and "The Traitors" and a thriller series starring Tessa Thompson and Jon Bernthal.