Domestic spending by Chinese consumers is not as strong as the Chinese government says which makes the country more vulnerable to a trade war with the U.S., according to China Beige Book International, a research firm.
Bottom line from CEO Leland Miller: Investors have been wowed by the performance of Chinese super-firms like Alibaba and Tencent, but that elite group is not a good proxy for China's retail sector, or for Chinese consumption more generally. Retail has substantially underperformed other sectors for two years. These are not the data Beijing wants to see as it is gearing up to go to war.
What it means: The prices are likely climbing on expectations that the sanctions will result in a smaller supply of aluminum worldwide, as Rusal produces 7% of the world’s aluminum. Meanwhile, Karen McBeth, content director of Metals Pricing at S&P Global, told MarketWatch that the sanctions could have a "lasting" effect on aluminum pricing in the U.S.
Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s former president and the first in the country's history to be impeached, was sentenced to 24 years in prison last week and fined $16 million for charges of corruption, as the Korean public watched the verdict broadcast live. Park once enjoyed the honor of being not only Korea's first female president but also the daughter of a former president, Park Chung-hee.
Why it matters: The imprisonment of Park, a conservative, furthers a historic leftward shift in Korea. Long dominated by the right, the political landscape is now being seized by progressives. We can expect the battle between the opposing forces to intensify as the two sides confront each other on issues such as North Korea and the U.S.–ROK alliance.
North Korea has told the U.S. it's ready to talk about denuclearization, the AP reports and two administration officials have confirmed to Axios. A senior administration official said the sides are "holding direct talks in preparation for a summit."
Why it matters: This raises the likelihood that Trump and Kim actually meet. Until now, there had not been confirmation from the North Koreans that Kim was prepared to discuss denuclearization. Trump said Monday he expects the summit to take place in May or June, per the AP.
Somalia’s government has seized three bags of money worth $10 million from a plane that landed in Mogadishu from United Arab Emirates, Voice of America reports, citing a source that says a UAE envoy was at the airport "to receive the money" when it was confiscated.
The big picture: Somalia’s interior ministry says its security agencies are investigating where the money was going. So why would $10m in cash from the UAE show up in Somalia? As the BBC notes, a crisis in the Gulf is "playing out in dramatic form in Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa. Some argue it could tear the whole region apart."
President Trump told reporters at the White House this morning that he would make a decision in the next 24 to 48 hours on how to respond to the "heinous" chemical attack over the weekend in Syria's eastern Ghouta region. “This is about humanity and it can’t be allowed to happen," he said.
The big picture: Trump had previously promised that there would be a "big price to pay" regarding the attack in a series of tweets yesterday, which featured him calling out Russian President Vladimir Putin by name. This morning, Trump continued with his harsher rhetoric against Russia, saying that Putin "may" be responsible and any response would be "very tough." He added, “If it’s the Russians, if it’s Syria, if it’s Iran, if it’s all of them together, we’ll figure it out.”
Some U.S. companies have begun to pre-order excess product from Chinese suppliers, ahead of President Trump's proposed tariffs, according to Ryan Petersen, founder and CEO of shipping logistics company Flexport.
Petersen, whose company is valued north of $900 million by VC firms like Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, adds that he's preparing his more than 10,000 clients for the tariffs to go into effect.
Today is the first day on the job for John Bolton, President Trump's third national security adviser, and the hawkish former U.S. ambassador to the U.N. will be instantly thrown into one of the administration's most consequential decisions.
What's at stake: CFR President Richard Haass tells me that after the chemical attack in Syria and Trump's quick, tough rhetoric on Twitter: "Doing nothing now would be a moral and strategic fiasco."
An overnight airstrike on an air base in Syria's Homs province reportedly killed 14, including some Iranians on the ground, per the AP.
Reaction: Pentagon officials denied the U.S. was behind the strike. Russian and Syrian officials said Israeli jets fired the missiles from Lebanese airspace, although Israel’s foreign ministry declined to comment, AP reported.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, Bahram Qasemi on Sunday called reports of this weekend's alleged chemical attack by the Syrian government "a new plot" and "an excuse" by some Western countries, including the U.S., to take military action against President Bashar al-Assad, reports Iranian news agency IRNA. He added that "it will definitely increase the complexity of the situation in this country and region."
The details: Qasemi said the Syrian government "has had a good cooperation" with the United Nations on chemical issues and that the alleged chemical attack is not based on facts. His remarks come after President Trump blasted Russian President Vladimir Putin and the government of Iran for aiding “Animal Assad” in his civil war with rebel forces since 2011. Reports said the Saturday's gas attacks claimed the lives of at least 70 civilians.
President Trump responded on Twitter to the alleged chemical attack by Syrian government forces that left dozens dead, calling out Russian President Vladimir Putin by name for his backing of the Assad regime.
This tweet is important. So far, Trump has avoided at all costs saying anything negative or confrontational about Putin. Trump has let his administration take tough actions against Russia — like sanctions, sending lethal arms to Ukraine, expelling Russian diplomats — but his red line has been criticizing Putin. As we've reported previously, the president is loath to criticize Putin by name or call him out in one-on-one conversations.
