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While President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s June 2018 meeting ended with a broad statement — committing to “establish new U.S.-DPRK relations” for “a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula” — they will aim to take more concrete steps forward at their second summit in Hanoi this week.

Between the lines: To keep up the diplomatic momentum, Trump and Kim will need to minimize existing ambiguities and divergences on key issues — including the definition of denuclearization — and produce a comprehensive road map that lays out the specifics of their proclaimed shared vision. Without these agreements, the Hanoi summit could be easily denigrated as “just another show.”

Where it stands: Trump and Kim each face immense pressure, both international and domestic, to make progress.

Trump needs to earn political trust back in Washington to continue negotiating with North Korea. His strategy so far has been to convince Kim that North Korea’s denuclearization would bring the country a “bright future.”

At the same time, Trump must address Kim’s concerns about whether any agreement reached with his administration will withstand the Democrat-controlled House and survive the post-Trump era.

Between the lines: Successful diplomacy sometimes entails purposeful ambiguities, and the ambiguities of the first Trump-Kim summit might indeed have been strategic. At this critical juncture, however, a failure on Trump’s and Kim’s part to commit to defined objectives could hurt the bilateral relationship.

The bottom line: Trump and Kim need support more than ever to advance their diplomatic endeavors. While spectators have good reason to be skeptical, and one can only be cautiously hopeful with North Korea, a return to confrontation or "strategic patience" is in no one’s interest.

Gi-Wook Shin is the William J. Perry Professor of Contemporary Korea and director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center at Stanford University.

Success of second Trump-Kim summit will lie in the details

Without concrete agreements, the Hanoi summit could easily become another show.

A banner showing President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un shaking hands next to the words 'Welcome to Vietnam' 

A banner hung opposite the Marriott Hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam, where President Trump is expected to stay during his summit with Kim Jong-un, on Feb. 25. Photo: Carl Court via Getty Images

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While President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s June 2018 meeting ended with a <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="broad statement" data-vars-click-url="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-agreement-text/trump-and-kims-joint-statement-idUSKBN1J80IU" data-vars-content-id="b541a8c7-3b85-44a6-b9e0-ce4f4963619e" data-vars-headline="Success of second Trump-Kim summit will lie in the details" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-usa-agreement-text/trump-and-kims-joint-statement-idUSKBN1J80IU" target="_blank">broad statement</a> — committing to “establish new U.S.-DPRK relations” for “a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula” — they will aim to take more concrete steps forward at their <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="second summit" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/trump-kim-jong-un-summit-north-korea-vietnam-d77951f3-2c56-425f-a3d1-105bb0494bb9.html" data-vars-content-id="b541a8c7-3b85-44a6-b9e0-ce4f4963619e" data-vars-headline="Success of second Trump-Kim summit will lie in the details" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/trump-kim-jong-un-summit-north-korea-vietnam-d77951f3-2c56-425f-a3d1-105bb0494bb9.html" target="_self">second summit</a> in Hanoi this week.Between the lines: To keep up the diplomatic momentum, Trump and Kim will need to minimize existing ambiguities and divergences on key issues — including the definition of denuclearization — and produce a comprehensive road map that lays out the specifics of their proclaimed shared vision. Without these agreements, the Hanoi summit could be easily denigrated as “just another show.”

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

 South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s long-anticipated visit to Pyongyang on Monday bolstered hopes that the deadlock in U.S.–North Korea denuclearization talks could be broken. The two Koreas agreed to resume cooperation on the economic and cultural fronts, to launch a new age of inter-Korean relations and, most importantly, to begin an era of peace. Kim also promised to visit Seoul in the near future, probably by the end of this year, which would be a first for any North Korean leader.

The big picture: The Pyongyang summit was a hopeful development in the recent flurry of diplomacy with North Korea, but was not in itself a game changer. It laid more groundwork for peace on the peninsula, but ended with minimal progress on the nuclear front. The U.S. has yet to be convinced that the Kim regime is willing and ready to make concrete steps towards denuclearization.

The Pyongyang Declaration fell short of addressing the U.S. demands for North Korean denuclearization. It broadly declared that the two nations would work together toward a Korean peninsula “free of nuclear weapons and nuclear threat,” and that the Northern regime would take steps to permanently dismantle nuclear and missile test sites (including Yongbyon, the birthplace of the country’s nuclear program) if the U.S. took “corresponding measures.”

Kim also agreed to welcome “experts of concerned countries” to witness the prospective dismantlement process. However, he made no commitment to provide either a list of the country’s nuclear facilities or a step-by-step timeline for closing them down — a major step many in Washington had hoped to see.

What’s next: Moon is scheduled to brief Trump on the outcome of the Pyongyang summit during his trip for the UN General Assembly next week. Trump has already expressed interest in a follow-up summit with Kim and hailed the Pyongyang developments as “very exciting,” but it remains to be seen whether the Declaration will be sufficient to move the U.S. toward further negotiations — and possibly toward another meeting between Trump and Kim.

Gi-Wook Shin is chair of Korean Studies at Stanford University, director of the Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center and senior fellow at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies.

Moon–Kim summit in Pyongyang was promising, but no game changer

The meeting produced few details on denuclearization.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un meets with South Korean President Moon Jae-in for the Inter-Korean Summit at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport on September 18, 2018.

North Korean Leader Kim Jong-un with South Korean President Moon Jae-in on September 18, 2018, in Pyongyang, North Korea. Photo: Pyeongyang Press Corps via Getty Images

South Korean President Moon Jae-in’s long-anticipated <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="visit to Pyongyang" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/world/asia/kim-jong-un-summit-moon-jae-in.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FNorth%20Korea&amp;action=click&amp;contentCollection=world&amp;region=stream&amp;module=stream_unit&amp;version=latest&amp;contentPlacement=4&amp;pgtype=collection" data-vars-content-id="c29bfe52-ef93-4b66-a9dd-120d6b4d6d49" data-vars-headline="Moon–Kim summit in Pyongyang was promising, but no game changer" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/17/world/asia/kim-jong-un-summit-moon-jae-in.html?rref=collection%2Ftimestopic%2FNorth%20Korea&amp;action=click&amp;contentCollection=world&amp;region=stream&amp;module=stream_unit&amp;version=latest&amp;contentPlacement=4&amp;pgtype=collection" target="_blank">visit to Pyongyang</a> on Monday bolstered hopes that the deadlock in U.S.–North Korea denuclearization talks could be broken. The two Koreas agreed to resume cooperation on the economic and cultural fronts, to launch a new age of inter-Korean relations and, most importantly, to begin an era of peace. Kim also promised <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="to visit Seoul in the near future" data-vars-click-url="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/18/world/asia/moon-jae-in-pyongyang-kim-jong-un-summit.html" data-vars-content-id="c29bfe52-ef93-4b66-a9dd-120d6b4d6d49" data-vars-headline="Moon–Kim summit in Pyongyang was promising, but no game changer" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/18/world/asia/moon-jae-in-pyongyang-kim-jong-un-summit.html" target="_blank">to visit Seoul in the near future</a>, probably by the end of this year, which would be a first for any North Korean leader.The big picture: The Pyongyang summit was a hopeful development in the recent flurry of diplomacy with North Korea, but was not in itself a game changer. It laid more groundwork for peace on the peninsula, but ended with minimal progress on the nuclear front. The U.S. has yet to be convinced that the Kim regime is willing and ready to make concrete steps towards denuclearization.

On Wednesday, just 1 year after President Moon Jae-in took office, South Koreans  reaffirmed their confidence in his administration by electing 14 out of 17 major municipality chiefs from the ruling party. This outcome marks a complete reversal of the 2006 municipal elections, when then-opposing conservatives won 12 out of 16 positions.

Why it matters: Progressives now fully control South Korean politics — national and municipal governments as well as the National Assembly. With this landslide victory, Moon's government gains new momentum to pursue his progressive agenda, including engagement with North Korea.

In South Korea, progressives and conservatives have historically butted heads over North Korea and the U.S.–South Korea alliance. With this decisive victory for the ruling party, conservative skeptics of North Korean engagement will lose ground, and Moon will garner support for an even more aggressive engagement policy. That's welcome news for the Trump administration, now that it's begun to engage the North as well.

The other side: If the post-summit negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea bring challenges, as they likely will, the rise of South Korean progressives could very well become a source of tension between Moon and Trump. Additionally, the new core group of elites in Moon's administration — many of whom were once activists in the anti-American democratic movements of the 1980s — might seek to redefine the terms of the U.S.–South Korea alliance. Nationalists at heart, they desire to turn South Korea into a true sovereign state with no foreign troops in its backyard, which could pose a serious challenge for the U.S.

The big picture: The election outcomes will strengthen the basis for close collaboration between the U.S. and South Korea on their joint engagement efforts with the North. However, we may also see a shift in the alliance if President Trump's desire to withdraw U.S. soldiers dovetails with South Korean elites' calls for greater national sovereignty.

Korean elections give Moon momentum, but could shift U.S. alliance

Trump's wish to withdraw troops could dovetail with Korean calls for greater sovereignty.

 South Korean President Moon Jae-in talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (not pictured).

South Korean President Moon Jae-in. Photo: South Korean Presidential Blue House via Getty Images

South Korea

On Wednesday, just 1 year after President Moon Jae-in took office, South Koreans <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="reaffirmed their confidence in his administration" data-vars-click-url="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/big-win-for-moon-in-south-korean-elections/1174542" data-vars-content-id="c5ddc786-d53a-4d4a-8c12-5ba2b48542f3" data-vars-headline="Korean elections give Moon momentum, but could shift U.S. alliance" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/big-win-for-moon-in-south-korean-elections/1174542" target="_blank">reaffirmed their confidence in his administration</a> by electing 14 out of 17 major municipality chiefs from the ruling party. This outcome marks a complete reversal of the 2006 municipal elections, when then-opposing conservatives won 12 out of 16 positions.Why it matters: Progressives now fully control South Korean politics — national and municipal governments as well as the National Assembly. With this landslide victory, Moon&#x27;s government gains new momentum to pursue his progressive agenda, including engagement with North Korea.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The leaders of the U.S. and North Korea, who only six months ago appeared to be heading for war, have now declared their commitment to “a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.” However, the joint statement from last night’s meeting did not mention a formal framework for denuclearization.

The big picture: Although it feels like watching an old movie again, with new actors and some twists in the context, we have yet to see how this version ends. Despite mounting disappointments, Trump’s North Korea diplomacy still deserves the benefit of the doubt as it continues to evolve.

Ever since he accepted an invitation to meet with Kim last March, Trump vowed to achieve the complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) of North Korea. In the absence of any CVID discussion during the summit, many pundits have declared it a victory for Kim and criticized Trump’s diplomacy.

The other side: A CVID would have been useful in 2003 when it was first introduced as a framework for North Korea’s then still-nascent nuclear program. But Trump may have  realized that a CVID is no longer a realistic goal, and Kim would not easily accede to the concept. 

This isn't necessarily bad news: CVID can be achieved only when North Korea becomes a normal state that no longer sees the need for nuclear armament. In this regard, the joint statement set the right tone for future negotiations, which should focus on not just denuclearization but also normalization for North Korea.

What's next: Secretary of State Pompeo will soon discuss next steps with his North Korean counterpart, who will make a tough negotiating partner. At the same time, Pompeo will face domestic difficulties as the Trump administration tries to sell the deal before November's election. He will also need to work closely in this process with not only the two key U.S. allies — Japan and South Korea — but also China.

Despite lack of plan, North Korea denuclearization could still happen

Denuclearization can happen only when North Korea becomes a normal state.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with U.S. President Donald Trump during their historic summit at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island on June 12, 2018 in Singapore

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with U.S. President Trump during their historic summit at the Capella Hotel on Sentosa island on June 12, 2018, in Singapore. Photo: Kevin Lim/The Strait Times via Getty Images

The leaders of the U.S. and North Korea, who only six months ago appeared to be heading for war, have now declared their commitment to <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="“a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.”" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/four-points-agreement-trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-e20d0efc-fb5a-465d-9130-5a9560fdeb82.html" data-vars-content-id="e6ea9126-b36f-453a-b8b5-e3588a9a3f06" data-vars-headline="Despite lack of plan, North Korea denuclearization could still happen" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/four-points-agreement-trump-kim-jong-un-north-korea-e20d0efc-fb5a-465d-9130-5a9560fdeb82.html" target="_self">“a lasting and stable peace regime on the Korean Peninsula.”</a> However, the joint statement from last night’s meeting did not mention a formal framework for denuclearization.The big picture: Although it feels like watching an old movie again, with new actors and some twists in the context, we have yet to see how this version ends. Despite mounting disappointments, Trump’s North Korea diplomacy still deserves the benefit of the doubt as it continues to evolve.

President Trump caught the world by surprise once again yesterday with a decision not to sign a deal with his North Korean counterpart, Chairman Kim Jong-un, in Hanoi, Vietnam. 

The big picture: While walking away is a common tactic in working-level negotiation, what happened in Hanoi was a rare case and the least expected outcome. Nonetheless, it might have been a much-needed reality check, not a failure, for both sides in the still-early stages of a long process of negotiation. 

Between the lines: The U.S. negotiators publicly admitted before the Hanoi meetings that the two countries had not yet reached consensus on a number of key concepts, nor on much of the timing and sequencing details for denuclearization and corresponding measures. In Hanoi, the two leaders continued to find more divergence than consensus. 

Yes, but: A failure to reach an agreement is not necessarily a failure of diplomacy. Trump could have left Hanoi with a deal of any kind just for the sake of it, but he decided that no deal was better than an insubstantial one that could hamper future negotiations. 

By doing so, he not only appeared as a tough negotiator to his North Korean counterpart, but also shielded himself from the potential criticism of a bad deal, affording him more domestic political slack than the alternative might have. 

His decision also sends a warning signal to North Korea that he will not let the country continue to set the tone and pace for the negotiations.

The bottom line: A return to hostility or to the path of war remains unlikely, as both sides are still committed to a diplomatic solution. The negotiations will resume sooner or later, and the misfortune in Hanoi might impart a different kind of momentum to what is destined to be a fluctuating, arduous diplomatic process.

Why walking away from Kim's deal may have been the right move

No deal was better than a flimsy one that could hamper future negotiations.

U.S. President Donald Trump attends a news conference following his second summit meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un on February 28, 2019 i

President Trump at a news conference following his second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. Photo: Tuan Mark via Getty Images

President Trump caught the world by surprise once again yesterday with a decision not to sign a deal with his North Korean counterpart, Chairman Kim Jong-un, in Hanoi, Vietnam. The big picture: While walking away is a common tactic in working-level negotiation, what happened in Hanoi was a rare case and the least expected outcome. Nonetheless, it might have been a much-needed reality check, not a failure, for both sides in the still-early stages of a long process of negotiation.

Gi-Wook Shin

Stories

Why walking away from Kim's deal may have been the right move

Success of second Trump-Kim summit will lie in the details

Moon–Kim summit in Pyongyang was promising, but no game changer

Korean elections give Moon momentum, but could shift U.S. alliance

Despite lack of plan, North Korea denuclearization could still happen