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National

Whats Next

Axios What's Next

Saturday's horrific mass shooting in Monterey Park, California will likely be left out of the FBI's nationwide crime statistics, as neither city nor county officials there are using the Justice Department's new crime reporting system.

Why it matters: The country's 18,600 law enforcement agencies have been slow to adopt the Justice Department's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) — which means that all manner of crimes are being undercounted.

NIBRS is designed to collect detailed data for use by policymakers, academics, and others — but is useless without thorough and accurate feeds from local law enforcement.

Catch up quick: On January 1, 2021, NIBRS became the only mechanism for law enforcement agencies to voluntarily report crimes to the FBI.

It includes all types of crimes, from identity theft and property destruction to violent assaults and acts of hate.

"Compared to the previous crime data collection system, NIBRS collects data about 47 more offenses and more detailed data about each victim, offender, person arrested, and property stolen or damaged for each individual crime incident," the Justice Department says.

Where it stands: 33% of law enforcement agencies are not feeding data into NIBRS.

That includes some huge police departments, like those in Los Angeles and New York City — two of the country's largest.

Since 2016, the Justice Department has offered training and $120 million in grants to help counteract the foot-dragging, with limited success.

Driving the news: Associate Attorney General Vanita Gupta last week beseeched the nation's mayors for help getting local law enforcement agencies to adopt the system.

"This year, law enforcement agency participation in submitting all crime statistics to the FBI fell 22%," she said at the U.S. Conference of Mayors winter meeting on Capitol Hill.

"That number is even starker for hate crimes: 93% of agencies reported hate crime statistics in 2020, but only 65% reported in 2021."

The official numbers reflected by NIBRS don't reflect the reality on the ground. Hate crimes have soared in recent years, as documented by groups like the Center for the Study of Hate and Extremism and the Anti-Defamation League.

By the numbers: A new Justice Department report shows the number of law enforcement agencies submitting crime statistics to NIBRS decreased from 12,742 in 2021 to 12,725 last year.

The decrease was partly technical, the agency said, indicating administrative changes in reporting structures — but it also reflected broader problems preventing full implementation of the more robust system.

Departments sitting on the sidelines cite cost, lack of personnel, and technical constraints.

Yes, but: "We cannot be effective in prevention and prosecution of hate crimes without more accurate and comprehensive data collection and reporting," Gupta said in her speech.

Zoom out: Regardless of whether the mass shooting in the heavily Asian American city of Monterey Park is deemed a hate crime, it won't be represented in the NIBRS — which is supposed to be the central repository for all U.S. crime statistics.

The intrigue: Florida and California — two of the most populous states — had the lowest percentages of law enforcement agencies feeding stats to the FBI in 2021, as Axios' Russell Contreras reported.

A joint Axios/Marshall Project report published last June found that a lack of adequate reporting could compromise NIBRS' utility.

"It's going to be really hard for policymakers to look at what crime looks like in their own community and compare it to similar communities," Jacob Kaplan, a criminologist at Princeton University, told Axios and The Marshall Project.

The bottom line: Without more comprehensive reporting, the FBI database is neither accurate nor predictive — foiling the agency's goal of building a sophisticated tool with pattern-detection powers.

These shortcomings could come under a glaring spotlight as crime becomes an issue in the 2024 election cycle.

Go deeper: Check out the FBI's interactive map to see if your community is using NIBRS.

The Monterey Park shooting exposes a major problem with crime data

Too few police departments are feeding crime statistics to the FBI's national database.

Illustration of a handgun tangled and strung up by calculator tape with numbers printed

Crime

Politics & Policy

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

House Democrats are forcing House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) to make good on his vow to remove several high-profile members from their committees – including one that would require a risky floor vote.

Why it matters: It’s the latest battle in an increasingly heated partisan conflict over committee assignments that began when Democrats and a handful of Republicans voted to remove Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) from their panels in 2021.

Republicans said at the time that the votes to boot Greene and Gosar set a new precedent and vowed to take revenge.

Driving the news: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) sent McCarthy a letter on Saturday officially renominating Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) to the Intelligence Committee despite McCarthy repeatedly pledging to remove them.

Because it's a permanent select committee, rather than an ordinary standing committee, McCarthy can unilaterally block Jeffries' appointments.

McCarthy has targeted Swalwell due to his past association with a Chinese spy, and Schiff for allegedly "lying" in his promotion of the Steele dossier.

"The denial of seats to duly elected Members of the House Democratic Caucus runs counter to the serious and sober mission of the Intelligence Committee," Jeffries wrote in the letter, which was first reported by Punchbowl News.

What caught our eye: Jeffries also took aim at Republicans for giving Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) committee seats despite revelations the Long Island freshman fabricated huge chunks of his resume and biography on the campaign trail.

But Jeffries has also indicated Democrats plan to let Republicans own Santos rather than taking action against him themselves.

What we're watching: Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) on Monday sent a letter to House Democrats' steering committee asking to be reappointed to the Foreign Affairs Committee.

"I'd be able to continue to offer a unique perspective as a Somali-American, a refugee, and the only Africa-born Member of Congress," Omar wrote.

McCarthy has said he will try to remove her from that panel over comments she has made about Israel that colleagues in both parties labeled anti-Semitic.

Note: In a "dear colleague" letter on Sunday, Jeffries wrote, "It is my expectation that no returning member of the House Democratic Caucus will involuntarily lose a seat related to an existing committee assignment."

But the letter only covered standing committees – which excludes the Intelligence Committee – and Axios is told that the quote only referred to members keeping their seats even as the overall number of Democrats on committees shrunk.

What's next: Unlike with the Intelligence Committee, Republicans will either have to block every members' committee assignments or allow them to pass and then hold a floor vote on a resolution booting Omar from the panel.

That floor fight is all but certain to happen, sources say. "Ms. Omar currently serves on the House Foreign Affairs Committee and is expected to [be] re-appointed by the Steering and Policy Committee," a Democratic leadership aide told Axios.

It could also turn messy for Republican leadership, as several moderate House Republicans have voiced discomfort or even firm opposition to removing Democrats from committees. They can only lose a handful of votes.

Democrats tee up showdown with McCarthy on committee seats

Democrats are expected to try to put Rep. Ilhan Omar back on Foreign Affairs.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries hands the speaker's gavel to Speaker Kevin McCarthy in the House chamber.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.). Photo: Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images.

House Democrats

Sales of huge pickups are sustaining carmakers, bringing in record profits — yet pedestrian and road safety advocates say today's massive trucks are a hazard, given their size, weight, and driver blind spots.

In a new Axios Visuals special project, we looked back over the past 50 years to examine the societal and lifestyle changes behind pickups' ever-increasing size.

Driving the news: America has a unique love affair with pickup trucks — the Ford F-150 has been the best-selling vehicle in the U.S. for more than 40 years. But during that time, pickups have become bigger, bulkier, and more high-tech.

In the 1980s, about half of pickup trucks were categorized as small or midsize. But by the 2010s, small pickups had nearly vanished as Americans increasingly bought into the big truck lifestyle. 

As pickups transitioned from workhorses to lifestyle vehicles, their design shifted accordingly: Cabs expanded to accommodate more passengers, while beds shrank.

The first generation of F-150s was 36% cab and 64% bed by length. By 2021, the ratio flipped, with 63% cab and 37% bed.

Between the lines: Survey data from vehicle research firm Strategic Vision shows a third of today’s pickup owners rarely or never use their truck for hauling, while two-thirds rarely or never use it for towing. 

Instead, experts say, much of the big pickup mania is being driven by consumers' self-image.

"Today, personality and imagery are playing an even more important role in how consumers choose which truck is right for them," Strategic Vision researcher Alexander Edwards told Axios. 

The firm surveys owners each year about the character traits they associate with their vehicle. Two words set F-150 owners apart: “powerful” and “rugged.” 

         Data: Strategic Vision. Chart: Will Chase/Axios

Yes, but: One result of supersized trucks: greater risks to pedestrians and other drivers. 

Drivers of today’s trucks sit much higher, creating a blind spot where small children or wheelchair users are hidden from view.

         Graphic: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios

Moreover, pickups’ weight increased by 32% between 1990 and 2021, meaning they strike pedestrians with more force. 

Plus, the tall front of a truck strikes pedestrians in the torso or head — home to vital organs — whereas the lower hoods of cars typically strike pedestrians in the legs.

Pickups also tend to be more dangerous in collisions between differently sized vehicles — car drivers are 2.5 times more likely to die when colliding with a pickup as compared to another car, per a 2019 study.

The other side: Ford says "safety is a top priority," and points to safety-related technologies such as pedestrian detection sensors, automatic emergency braking, 360-degree cameras, and more, some of which now come standard.

Other pickup manufacturers have added similar features.

The 2022 F-150 earned a "top safety pick" rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, and earned "good" or "superior" ratings in various crash tests, including those with other vehicles, and with child and adult pedestrians.

What's next: While they’ve probably maxed out in terms of size, pickup trucks are still evolving to keep up with Americans’ changing lifestyles. 

And now that they're going electric, many offer capabilities and bonus features that aren’t available from gasoline or diesel trucks, like better torque and faster acceleration, and the ability to power a worksite, campsite, or tailgate party without burning gasoline.

Methodology: Data on U.S. truck sales comes from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. All survey data, including truck usage and imagery data, is from the Strategic Vision New Vehicle Experience Study. Data on collision death rates and curb weights are from Monfort and Nolan (2019). Trends in aggressivity and driver risk for cars, SUVs, and pickups: Vehicle incompatibility from 1989 to 2016. Traffic Injury Prevention. 3D models were licensed from Ford through TurboSquid.

How pickup trucks became so imposing

Small pickups have nearly vanished as Americans have bought into big truck lifestyle.

 A 1970s-era Ford F-150 as compared to a modern version.

A 1970s-era Ford F-150 compared to a modern version. Graphic: Will Chase/Axios

Automakers

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) nominated Reps. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) to the Intelligence Committee in a letter to House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Saturday first obtained by Punchbowl News.

Why it matters: McCarthy has said he will deny Schiff's and Swalwell's nominations to the committee, though Jeffries told McCarthy in the letter that doing so would run "counter to the serious and sober mission of the Intelligence Committee" and would lay bare Republican's "apparent double standard" in designating committee assignments.

While McCarthy has said he plans to oust Schiff and Swalwell from the Intelligence Committee, embattled Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), who has been facing calls to resign from Republicans and Democrats for fabricating details about his background throughout his campaign, received two committee assignments last week.

Far-right Republicans Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) and Paul Gosar (R-Ariz.) also received committee assignments again — reversing 2021 bipartisan votes to remove their assignments for either making or promoting violent and inflammatory rhetoric against their political opponents.

What they're saying: "At the same time that Republicans have threatened to deny seats on the Intelligence Committee to clearly qualified democratic members, serial fraudster George Santos has been placed on two standing committees of the House and welcomed into your conference," Jeffries letter to McCarthy reads.

"The apparent double standard risks undermining the spirit of bipartisan cooperation that is so desperately needed in Congress," it continues. 

"I urge you to honor past practice of the House of Representatives and our mutual interest in working together for the good of the American people by accepting my recommendation of Adam Schiff to serve as Ranking Member and Eric Swalwell to continue his service as a Member of the Intelligence Committee."

Schiff said on social media he was "proud" of Jeffries' nomination to the committee and that McCarthy threatened his removal "to placate his right-wing" but following through with it "will damage the committee’s independence."

"Along with his committee on conspiracy theories, he is doing grave damage to national security," Schiff tweeted on Monday.

The big picture: Jeffries defended Greene's and Gosar's committee assignment removals, saying the actions were bipartisan and justified after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

McCarthy, however, has said their removals set a new standard, which Republicans would not hesitate to use to remove Democrats from assignments.

McCarthy has maintained that Swalwell's brief association with a Chinese spy made him ineligible for a seat on the committee, though he's never been accused of wrongdoing and cut ties with the spy after being alerted by federal investigators.

McCarthy also considers Schiff, one of the longest-serving members on the Intelligence Committee, disqualified from serving as ranking member for promoting the Steele dossier, which alleged extensive ties between former President Trump and Russia but was unverified.

Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) has also been targeted by McCarthy for removal from the House Foreign Affairs Committee over her 2019 comments on a pro-Israel lobbying group's influence on Congress, which members of both parties criticized at the time as anti-Semitic.

Omar, who has apologized for the remark, is expected to be named to the committee by Democrats this week according to Punchbowl News, though the full House would have to vote to remove her from the panel.

Go deeper: White House slams far-right Republicans' committee assignments

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a tweet from Rep. Adam Schiff.

Jeffries says GOP has “double standard” on committee assignments

House Majority Leader McCarthy is expected to deny Democratic nominations to the Intelligence Committee.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) speaking in the Capitol on Jan. 12.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) speaking in the Capitol on Jan. 12. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

Axios

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