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National

The Senate will hold a futile vote Monday night — just 72 hours before a potential shutdown — on a House-passed bill to fund the government through Dec. 3 and raise the debt limit.

Why it matters: The bill is going to fail. Period. But then comes Plan B: A "clean" continuing resolution — stripped of language about raising the debt limit — that Democrats spent the past week preparing, Axios is told.

Absent passing a short-term funding bill, federal agencies will close down on Friday. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) say that's not an option, so they'll get this done.

That means Democrats, namely leadership, will likely have to do what they've spent the last month vowing they wouldn't: attach legislation that would increase the debt ceiling to their partisan reconciliation package.

What's next: Monday's vote is purely symbolic at this point, given Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Senate Republicans have declared for weeks they won't support raising the debt ceiling.

Democrats still plan to use the failed bill to shame Republicans for what they'll characterize as voting for a shutdown and "careening our country toward a default," as Schumer put it last week.

As we reported last week, the Republicans' refusal to join Democrats in dealing with the nation's debt isn't typical of Congress.

The debt they're facing was mostly racked up under the Trump administration and the former Republican president's predecessors.

But McConnell has successfully made this a key talking point for his party ahead of the midterms, and a political public relations nightmare for Democrats.

Shutdown Plan B

Absent passing a short-term funding bill, federal agencies will close down on Thursday.

Illustration of the Capitol dome disappearing under the hands of a clock

Government shutdown

Politics & Policy

Standing on a flatbed hitched to a John Deere tractor in red Rockingham County, Virginia, Glenn Youngkin decried California liberalism and bashed his rival, Terry McAuliffe. He also encouraged early voting. Two words he avoided: Donald Trump.

Driving the news: Youngkin, the Virginia Republican gubernatorial nominee, is mounting a serious challenge to McAuliffe — a former governor and veteran of Democratic politics. Axios caught up with him on Friday in Harrisonburg, Virginia.

Trump has been turning up the heat on Youngkin to fully embrace him, arguing Republicans who try to have it both ways can't win. Youngkin isn't taking the bait.

“I brought together Forever-Trumpers and Never-Trumpers, sitting in the same audience, excited about what we're doing," Youngkin told Axios.

“President Trump knows exactly where I stand," he said. "He knows that I stand completely for Virginia."

Why it matters: Off-year gubernatorial elections in this increasingly blue swing state often are seen as a bellwether.

The contest this Nov. 2 has the potential to reflect — at least partly — where persuadable voters come down on COVID-19 mandates.

The results also may show how Trump's absence from office and the ballot — and Democratic infighting as well as President Biden's recent drop in popularity — could impact turnout next year.

The big picture: Youngkin has walked a tightrope in the hope of making himself an appealing choice for both Trump supporters and independent voters. It appears to be working.

The Cook Political Report last week shifted its categorization of the race to “toss-up” from “lean Democrat.”

A recent Washington Post-Schar School poll found McAuliffe and Youngkin in a tight race, with McAuliffe at 50% to Youngkin's 47% among likely voters.

"I think we're able to make a real statement that a Republican candidate in a state like Virginia can win,” Youngkin told Axios. “The issues that are on Americans' minds right now are very similar to the issues that are in Virginians’ minds.”

Renzo Oliveri, McAuliffe’s press secretary, said in a statement: “Glenn Youngkin —who is proud to have been endorsed by Donald Trump four timea — has said Donald Trump represents why he’s running for governor. His whole campaign has been predicated on Trump’s election conspiracy theory and his plan to ban abortion in Virginia. Glenn is a Forever Trumper and Terry will not let Glenn do to Virginia what Trump did to our country.”

Between the lines: Youngkin believes Biden beat Trump in the 2020 election legitimately. But while speaking with Axios, he wouldn’t say whether he would have voted to certify the election on Jan. 6 if he were a member of Congress. He did say there's “no room for violence in America.”

Youngkin, 54, is the former co-CEO of global private equity firm The Carlyle Group and a multimillionaire.

He repeatedly described himself as a “political outsider” while calling McAuliffe a “godfather” of the Democratic Party. “If Bill and Hillary had a son, it would be Terry.”

The church warden told voters he begins each morning in prayer — and asked them to pray for him.

What we're watching: Trump sent negative and mixed messages about early and absentee voting in 2020 that may have hurt Republican turnout. Now, many Republicans who watched Democrats' success are actively promoting early voting — Youngkin among them.

What they’re saying:  Several in Youngkin's crowd in Harrisonburg said they'd voted for Trump — both in 2016 and 2020 — but saw Youngkin as independent from, rather than an extension of, the former president.

“It’s nothing to do with Trump," said Tom Dolan, 63.

“I have prayed for the past year or two for God to send us a godly candidate —  and then Glenn showed up,” said Barbara Knupp, 70.

Editor’s note: Updates with comment from McAuliffe campaign.

Glenn Youngkin's play: Forever- and Never-Trumpers

Youngkin walks a tightrope in the hope of appealing to both Trump supporters and independent voters.

Virginia gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin is seen during an appearance in Harrisonburg, Va.

Glenn Youngkin in Harrisonburg, Virginia, on Friday. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Virginia

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

Two of the nine House centrists who demanded Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) bring the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill to the floor by Monday are now publicly promising to vote for the separate $3.5 trillion budget reconciliation package, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: By explicitly announcing their support for a big package targeting climate change and expanding the social safety net, Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) and Filemon Vela (D-Texas) are trying to convince progressives to vote for the infrastructure bill this week.

Nonetheless, the two lawmakers also make it clear the House needs to vote on the bipartisan infrastructure bill as soon as possible.  

“We support swift passage of the president’s $3.5 trillion reconciliation package,” they write in a joint statement obtained by Axios. “The bipartisan infrastructure framework would, on average, deliver $1.2 billion per congressional district.”

“However, the idea that denying passage of the Senate’s Bipartisan Infrastructure bill [BIF] somehow exercises 'leverage' over some of our more fiscally conservative members is wholly misguided."

Between the lines: It’s unclear how many of the nine centrists who forced Pelosi to schedule the vote by Sept. 27 are actually on board for a big spending bill. 

On Friday night, five of them — Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), Ed Case (D-Hawaii), Kurt Schrader (D-Ore.), Jared Golden (D-Maine) and Carolyn Bourdeaux (D-Ga.) — met with the speaker. 

Some of them have indicated privately and publicly they're opposed to a $3.5 trillion price tag.

Gottheimer, the group's leader, insists the Senate must move first and establish the bill’s price tag, which can then be considered by the House: “Whatever we can get 51 in the Senate on, which we will, we will get done and it'll be coming into law,” Gottheimer told NPR on Saturday.

Driving the news: Progressive lawmakers are still threatening to tank the bipartisan bill if the outlines of a reconciliation package aren't agreed to in the House and Senate — and insist they have the votes to kill the bipartisan package.

"I don't believe there is going to be a vote," Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." “The votes aren’t there.”

The big picture: House leaders promised all last week they will hold a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package on Monday or Tuesday.

Pelosi left open the possibility of reneging on her deal with the centrists.

"We will bring the bill to the floor [Monday] for consideration," she said on ABC's "This Week." "I'm never bringing a bill to the floor that doesn’t have the votes.”

"You cannot choose the date. You have to go when you have the votes, in a reasonable time," Pelosi also said. "It's an eventful week."

What's next: Pelosi will convene the House Democratic caucus at 5:30 p.m. ET Monday to make her case before the vote.

Scoop: Centrists back $3.5T package

By explicitly announcing their support, they are trying to convince progressives to vote for the infrastructure bill this week.

Reps. Vicente Gonzalez and Filemon Vela are seen in a pair of side-by-side headshots.

Reps. Vicente Gonzalez (left) and Filemon Vela. Photos: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call and Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call

Infrastructure

This epic week for President Biden on Capitol Hill is even bigger than his domestic agenda.

Why it matters: Biden has anchored his entire strategy for foreign affairs on the notion that "America is back." What that means in practice is that Biden needs to prove democracy works to rally America’s liberal allies against rising authoritarians. 

A collapse of any or all of his four urgent legislative priorities — infrastructure, reconciliation, government funding and the debt ceiling — would deal a severe blow to the underlying theory of Biden’s presidency.

He's already shaky: His approval rating is under water, the Afghanistan withdrawal was a debacle, the border is overwhelmed, and he’s made no progress in dealing with China.

A CNN graphic that says whats in the infrastructure bill?

State of play: House leaders promised all week that they'll hold a vote on the bipartisan infrastructure package tomorrow or Tuesday.

But with progressives still promising to vote against it, they plainly don’t have the votes.

Speaker Pelosi said Thursday at her weekly news conference: 

"I think we're in a very good place. I've always been very calm about this, because ... it always happens the same way — all this bluster and this and that, and who's there and who's there."

Hill votes will make global waves

Biden needs to prove democracy works to rally America’s liberal allies against rising authoritarians.

President  Biden addresses the UN General Assembly on Sept. 21, 2021, in New York City. Photo: Eduardo Munoz-Pool/Getty Images)

Biden administration

Policymaking

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

Tampa Bay

Axios Tampa Bay

Fox News Sunday With Chris Wallace-9 26 00 Am - 9 27 26 Am-2021-09-26

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott on Sunday defended the actions of U.S. Border Patrol agents who charged at Haitian migrants on horseback, blaming the Biden administration for not preventing them from crossing the border. 

Why it matters: The Republican governor's remarks on "Fox News Sunday" comes amid increased backlash over the incident, with President Biden saying, "I promise ... those people will pay,” and the Department of Homeland Security launching an investigation.  

Nevertheless, should the agents face termination, "you have a job in the state of Texas,” Abbott told host Chris Wallace. “I will hire you to help Texas secure our border.”

Catch up quick: Last week, footage surfaced of Border Patrol agents charging their horses at migrants in Del Rio, who were attempting to make their way to an encampment under the international bridge, Axios' Shawna Chen writes. 

DHS later issued a statement saying the agency "does not tolerate the abuse of migrants in our custody." 

White House press secretary Jen Psaki told reporters during a briefing that border agents in Del Rio would no longer be using horses.

Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz said at the time that the agents did not use "whips" on the migrants, as photos and resulting reaction suggested, though questions have remained about whether they were "whipping" ("swinging," "flicking") their leather reins toward them. 

Freelance photojournalist Paul Ratje, who took the Sept. 19 photos in question, told local station KTSM: “I’ve never seen them whip anyone.” Ratje added: “He was swinging it, but it can be misconstrued when you’re looking at the picture.”

Al Jazeera English journalist John Holman, who also captured images from that day, told NPR: "There was a lot of talk about whips and lassos. What we actually saw was them using long reins on their horses and flicking them toward people."

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional information provided by the journalists at the border. 

Abbott says he'll hire Border Patrol agents on horseback if they're fired

Texas

Latin America and Latinos

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

The number of people looking to become online influencers has exploded during the pandemic.

Why it matters: Almost anyone can find themselves in a position to become an influencer, and brands are throwing billions of dollars at online content creators.

Driving the news: Takumi, a premier influencer marketing agency, received twice as many applications from people looking for representation in 2020 than it did in 2019. And year-to-date, it's grown another 150-200%, Takumi group CEO Mary Keane-Dawson said.

The company's acceptance rate has also grown to about 30% over the last two years — a "major indication that influencers are becoming much more professional [and] mainstream," Keane-Dawson told Axios. 

State of play: The pandemic expedited the shift to e-commerce and digital marketing. That's helped to lead businesses big and small to invest in more influencer relationships. 

Advertisers "don't want to use the same influencer again and again," Keane-Dawson said, which keeps new opportunities flowing.

Brands are expected to spend more than $3 billion on influencer campaigns in 2021, and over $4 billion in 2022, according to eMarketer. 

While eMarketer doesn't publish breakouts of spend by platform, it estimates that Instagram is the market leader with roughly half the market, "while YouTube and Facebook see a significant amount of spending as well. TikTok is likely smaller but growing quickly."

The big picture: Experts in the industry argue that the number of influencers continues to grow dramatically, even as the industry becomes more competitive.  

SignalFire, a venture capital firm that invests in many creator-led businesses, estimates that more than 50 million people globally consider themselves online creators. 

Everyone wants to be an influencer

More people want to monetize their social media

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Shutdown Plan B

Glenn Youngkin's play: Forever- and Never-Trumpers

Scoop: Centrists back $3.5T package

Hill votes will make global waves

Abbott says he'll hire Border Patrol agents on horseback if they're fired

Everyone wants to be an influencer

Federal judge blocks vaccine mandate for NYC teachers

New York prepares for staff shortages from health vaccine mandate

California to remove word "alien" from state laws

Axios AM Deep Dive: Covid forever

CCP releases two jailed Canadians after Huawei CFO deal with DOJ