Tuesday's politics & policy stories


Trump's foreign trip, day 4: Highlights and schedule
It's day four of President Trump's first foreign trip. He kicked it off with a short trip to Bethlehem, where he met with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, a key foreign policy objective of his administration. He then returned to Jerusalem, and will end his day in Rome, where he's set to visit the Vatican and meet with Pope Francis tomorrow.
The latest: Donald Trump touched down in Rome 6:25pm GMT+2 with no further events on his public schedule for the evening.

Trump's budget chief defends "taxpayer first budget"
Office of Management and Budget Director Mick Mulvaney is briefing reporters on the latest details of the Trump Administration's FY18 budget. The title on the hard copy of budget reads, "New Foundation for American Greatness," but Mulvaney said it should really be called the "Taxpayer First Budget" because the administration looked at it "through the eyes of the people who were actually paying the bills." Live updates:

Former CIA director defends FBI investigation on Russia
Former CIA Director John Brennan told the House Intel Committee Tuesday he believes he was the first U.S. official to engage with Russia on the issue of interfering in the U.S. elections when he warned his Russian counterpart on August 4, 2016 that if Russia interfered in the U.S. elections it would "undermine constructive engagement even on matters of mutual interest" for Russia and the U.S. Brennan reported that his counterpart denied any interference and said he would relay Brennan's warning to Putin.

Paul Ryan has "an abundance of caution" about the budget bill
Asked about the "widely optimistic" outlook for economic growth in the Trump administration's budget, House speaker Paul Ryan seemed uncertain of the specifics, but said he has confidence in the Office of Management and Budget:
"I haven't seen the details yet, I don't want to get ahead of [Mick] Mulvaney... but I would say this ... we never hit 3% growth in the last presidency at all... the problem for us as Americans is that we have embraced slow growth strategies for the last eight years and now we have an administration and Congress committed to pro-growth strategies.
"Whether or not we hit those numbers, I don't know the answer yet because I haven't seen all of those numbers, but I would expect that OMB will put their projections of what the economy will reach in their budget."

Dems love Devin Nunes' replacement on Russia probe
Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA) stepped aside from running the House Intelligence Committee's investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 elections in early April. Background here.
Since then, Democrats have warmed to his replacement, Rep. Mike Conway (R-TX). Quotables from House Dems to Texas Tribune's Abby Livingston:
- Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), the top Dem on the committee: "I appreciate his devotion to the task and the constructive way he is helping to lead the investigation..."
- Rep. Terry Sewell (D-AL): "He has always shown himself to be fair-minded."
- Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA): "All signs are good, but the rubber hasn't met the road yet."

Sen. Inhofe: Russia drama won't deter infrastructure
Axios' Jim Vandehei and NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd sat down with Senator Jim Inhofe (R-OK) and Atlanta Mayor Kasim Reed at Axios' Infrastructure in 2017 event. Inhofe (R-OK), a pilot and "infrastructure junkie", said he doesn't think that the drama with Russia will deter the Trump Administration from passing a successful infrastructure bill:
"A lot of people out there hate Trump, and a lot of you guys in the media keep fanning the flames, you're gonna keep doing it," said Inhofe. "But we're going to get it done... let the media have their heyday."

Copying Clinton, Trump builds scandal war room
Day 124... White House officials tell me they're gearing up for months, and likely years, of Russia defense. Trump and his inner circle are belatedly scrambling to install war-room-like mechanisms designed to prevent the drama and threat from consuming the entire West Wing, and derailing everything else.
Trump aides have studied precedents, including the Reagan White House's handling of Iran-Contra and President Clinton's scandal machinery.
The West Wing appears to be absorbing key lessons from its predecessors, although even Trump allies tell me he's just beginning to take steps to wall off the controversy that should have begun on Day 1:

Trump on Manchester attack: terrorists are "evil losers"
President Trump has commented on the terror attack on Manchester, which left at least 22 dead and around 50 injured. From his remarks at a pool spray in Bethlehem, where he's meeting and speaking with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas:


Deep spending cuts in Trump's "taxpayer first" budget


Data: White House; Note: Doesn't include reprioritized discretionary spending; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios
Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney briefed White House reporters today on President Trump's 2018 budget proposal, to be released tomorrow morning. Here's what you need to know:
- $3.6 trillion in total spending reductions over 10 years
- Includes $1.7 trillion in savings from "mandatory" spending
- Biggest savings: More than $800 billion from health care
- Balances the budget in 10 years
Our thought bubble: Presidential budgets are aspirational political documents. None of these cuts (or increases) will happen without Congress. Democrats will go along with none of this and Republicans are already wary. Congress is going to write its own budget, but realistically, they're not going to start completely from scratch either. They have to take the administration's priorities into account.
Branding / philosophical underpinning:
- The official title of the budget: "A new foundation for American jobs."
- Mulvaney calls it the "taxpayer-first" budget. What he means by that: Mulvaney says the administration is thinking about the budget in a fundamentally different way than previous administrations did. Mulvaney says they're now thinking more about the people who are paying the taxes — and trying to justify asking hardworking people to cough up money — rather than focusing on the people who are receiving the benefits.
- The Trump administration wants to redefine what "compassion" means. Mulvaney says it should no longer be measured based on how many programs are in effect or how many people are receiving the benefit. He wants "compassion" to be broadened to include whether the government is ripping off taxpayers by using their money for ineffective programs.
The budget balances in 10 years, but relies on some very sketchy assumptions:
- It assumes passage of the American Health Care Act — the Affordable Care Act repeal and replacement bill that passed the House but will soon face strong moderating forces in the Senate.
- It assumes Trump can sign into law tax reform that is revenue neutral. That's quite an assumption given that most people have already written the obituary for the main policy House Republicans plan to use to pay for big tax cuts — the "border adjustment tax."
- It assumes that Trump can increase the economic growth rate to 3 percent from the currently projected 1.9 percent. To get there, they're assuming Trump can make historic tax cuts (corporate rate to 15%!!!) and slash regulations.
Safety net programs are cut significantly:
- As Axios scooped on Sunday evening, Trump's budget proposal will cut spending on "mandatory" (mostly social welfare) programs by about $1.7 trillion over ten years.
- Medicaid would be cut by $610 billion over 10 years — but when added to the rest of ACA repeal, total health care savings would be $866 billion.
- Tightens eligibility for SNAP (food stamps), cutting $193 billion from the budget over 10 years.
- Requires people to have Social Security numbers if they want to receive the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit. Mulvaney said it's not fair to expect taxpayers to pay for illegal immigrant families to receive these benefits. Saves $40 billion over ten years.
- Cuts $5.8 billion from the Children's Health Insurance Program.
- Cuts $21 billion from the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) program.
No Social Security (retirement payments) or Medicare cuts: Mulvaney, a fiscal hardliner, argued strongly to Trump that he should reform Social Security (retirement payments) and Medicare benefits, but Mulvaney says Trump refused to cut these programs because he promised not to on the campaign trail.
Yes, but: Trump's budget would cut programs that fall into the safety net category and one in particular, the Social Security Disability Insurance program (SSDI), that many will argue breaks his promise not to cut Social Security.
Massive cuts to non-defense discretionary spending:
- Unsurprisingly, Trump is proposing slashing many government agency budgets that don't fit with his priorities. He's asking Congress to cut around $1.5 trillion out of non-defense discretionary spending over 10 years.
- Agencies hardest hit: EPA (slashes 31.4% off budget in first year), State Department (-29.1%), Agriculture (-20.5%), Labor (-19.8%) and Health and Human Services (-16.2%)
Where Trump is boosting spending:
- Military: Trump is proposing to increase the previously-projected defense budget by 4.6%, or $25.4 billion in 2018.
- Border security: Plussing up the previously-projected Homeland Security budget by 6.8%, or $2.8 billion in 2018.
- Vets: Boosting the previously-projected Veterans Affairs budget by 5.8% or $4.3 billion in 2018.
- Paid parental leave: Includes $19 billion over 10 years to help states provide up to six weeks of paid leave for new mothers and fathers. Mulvaney says the proposal would encourage them to go back into the workforce, which would boost economic growth.

Comey won't be testifying Wednesday
A House Oversight Committee hearing that was scheduled for Wednesday has been postponed. Jason Chaffetz had invited ousted FBI Director James Comey, who has not spoken publicly since President Trump fired him earlier this month, to testify at the hearing.
The reason for the delay: Comey wanted to consult with Bob Mueller, his predecessor as FBI chief and the Russia investigation's special counsel, per House Oversight Chairman Jason Chaffetz.

The latest on Trump's Israel visit
President Trump is in Israel Monday, the second leg of his first foreign trip, where he's holding meetings with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Reuven Rivlin in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Follow along for live updates.
The latest: Trump and Melania have arrived at Netanyahu's residence, where they signed Bibi's guestbook and took a brief tour of the house. The two leaders then delivered a joint statement. They took no questions, but traded compliments and spoke of their optimism that a peace deal could be reached.

The Donald and Bibi Show
President Trump and Israeli PM Netanyahu delivered a joint statement before a dinner at Netanyahu's residence. They took no questions, but traded compliments and spoke of their optimism that a peace deal could be reached.

Report: Michael Flynn will plead 5th, decline subpoena
The Associated Press is reporting that Michael Flynn, the former general fired from his National Security Advisor role by President Trump for lying about his contacts with Russians, will decline a subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee.
- The sourcing: "[A] person with direct knowledge of the matter... spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the private interactions between Flynn and the committee."
- Why this was coming: "Legal experts have said Flynn was unlikely to turn over the personal documents without immunity because he would be waiving some of his constitutional protections by doing so. Flynn has previously sought immunity from "unfair prosecution" to cooperate with the committee."
Background on the subpoena, here.

The trick for Trump: Sustain foreign trip successes
Air Force One just landed at Ben Gurion International Airport in Tel Aviv, with President Trump saying to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the tarmac arrival ceremony: "Hello, my friend." The President and First Lady will visit the Western Wall later this morning, ET.
Trump's weekend overture to the Muslim world, combined with his call to the national leaders in his audience to be tougher on their homegrown threat ("history's great test — to conquer extremism and vanquish the forces of terrorism"), has given him a momentary respite from the legal peril he left at home.












