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Energy & Environment

President Trump is promising the tornado-stricken state of Alabama that FEMA is on the way, while Puerto Rico's governor is fighting to make sure the administration doesn't divert its aid money to building a border wall.

Driving the news: Trump today on Alabama: "FEMA has been told directly by me to give the A Plus treatment to the Great State of Alabama and the wonderful people who have been so devastated by the Tornadoes."

The latest: 23 are dead, and the worst tornado was an EF-4 with a damage path nearly 1 mile wide, the National Weather Service reported today. Dozens are still missing, AP reports.

More from the AP: National Weather Service meteorologist Chris Darden "said the 'monster tornado' was the single deadliest twister in the U.S. since May 2013, when an EF-5 killed 24 people in Moore, Oklahoma."

Why it matters: The president's responses to natural disasters have been criticized for varying based on his relationship with each state's political leaders.

In Puerto Rico, Gov. Ricardo Rosselló told Axios' Andrew Freedman in late February, after failing to secure a meeting with Trump during a visit to Washington, that his state is fighting to prevent recovery funds from being taken away. "Puerto Rico has always been treated differently, and by differently I mean in an inferior fashion."

Flashback: Axios' Jonathan Swan reported in November that Trump didn't want to give Puerto Rico any more federal recovery money, claiming without evidence that the island’s government was using federal disaster relief money to pay off debt.

In California, Trump has repeatedly expressed sympathy for fire-affected residents while also threatening FEMA funds unless the state government acts in his favor. He has railed against the state's forestry practices, blaming poor forest management for record and deadly wildfires, thereby ignoring the roles played by climate change and development.

The bottom line: In a future where natural disasters could be more frequent and more intense because of climate change, the politics of natural disasters will just get hotter.

Trump’s "A Plus treatment" highlights political approach to disaster relief

Puerto Rico's governor is fighting to make sure Trump doesn't divert its aid money to building a border wall.

Illustration of an iPhone receiving a call from Puerto Rico, the only option is to decline the call. 

Politics

Natural disasters

Latin America and Latinos

California Assemblyman Chad Mayes (R-Yucca Valley) is proposing a new Enhanced Clean Energy Standard (CES) as the next step in curbing carbon emissions in California. 

The big picture: Mayes' bill would create an enforceable 80% CES that's "technology neutral," meaning that utility companies would be required to limit greenhouse gas emissions, but would be free to choose the technology with which to do so. This approach has been popular among conservatives recently, and may please progressive climate activists, too.

How it works: The legislation sets a zero-emissions standard, but doesn't specify any preferred energy technology. This tech-neutral approach would help control costs of de-carbonization by allowing businesses to choose any qualifying zero-emissions energy source based on affordability and business needs. That leaves the door open for non-renewable, zero-emissions sources to qualify for compliance plans, including nuclear, hydro, carbon capture and market entry for yet-to-be-discovered energy technology.

Conservatives have been advocating for this tech-neutral concept in a number of ways: 

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) proposed legislation to support “carbon utilization and direct air-capture research.”

Rep. Tom Reed (R-N.Y.) proposed a tech-neutral tax credit that would strengthen “market-driven innovation across electricity-generating technologies.”

The staunchly conservative American Legislative Exchange Council passed two clean coal carbon-capture resolutions in December.

Even President Trump signed legislation that incentivizes clean coal and could advance carbon capture use and storage technologies.

Between the lines: Republicans are generally more comfortable with climate action when policies go beyond wind and solar solutions to include all energy and technology options for minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. Tech-neutral advocates hope that preserving as much freedom of choice as possible will make climate change legislation both economically practical and environmentally effective.

This approach can also accelerate affordable decarbonization because it allows all existing zero-emissions energy technology to compete.

The bottom line: Mayes’ bill may be the best chance for electric utility companies and climate change advocates to cooperate on meeting California’s climate goals: Currently, there is a binding requirement for 60% of electricity to come from renewable sources by 2030 and a non-enforceable goal of 100% of electricity from zero-emissions sources by 2045. Mayes' bill would increase the enforceable zero-emissions target to 80% by 2038.

Sarah E. Hunt is the co-founder and CEO of Joseph Rainey Center for Public Policy.

Tech-neutral energy standards emerge as bipartisan climate policy

Companies would need to limit emissions, but would be free to choose how.

Sen. John Barrasso, R-Wyo., arrives in the Capitol for the Senate policy luncheons on Tuesday, Feb. 26, 2019.

Sen. John Barrasso. Photo: Bill Clark/CQ Roll Call

Energy

Climate change policy

Expert Voices

Climate change

Generate

Axios Generate

The tornadoes that ripped through Lee County, Alabama, on Sunday evening, tearing homes apart like a half-mile-wide buzzsaw, are being blamed for at least 23 fatalities.

Why it matters: This death toll makes Sunday the deadliest tornado day in the U.S. since an EF-5 tornado struck Moore, Oklahoma, in May 2013, killing 24. 

The Lee County tornadoes devastated rural communities in that state, with more than 100 rescue crews continuing to search for survivors on Monday morning. 

Other severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes struck in Georgia and Florida as well, as a severe weather outbreak swept through the region. 

The storms were well-forecast, including more than 90 tornado warnings issued across the Southeast — and two dire "tornado emergency" alerts denoting an imminent threat of loss of life and/or "catastrophic damage." 

The big picture: National Weather Service forecasters are surveying damage across at least 3 states to determine how many tornadoes touched down and how strong they were. One of the Lee County tornadoes was given a preliminary rating of an EF-4, with estimated maximum winds of 170 mph. 

The storms resulted from a clash in air masses as cold, dry Arctic air pushed southward out of Canada, while warm, moist air and a fast-moving flow of air raced up the East Coast in association with a storm system that rippled along this boundary. 

The low-level winds provided plenty of wind shear, which allowed the severe thunderstorms to develop the persistent rotation necessary for producing tornadoes.

Go deeper: California's "fire tornado" had 143 mile-per-hour winds

Alabama twisters cause deadliest tornado day in U.S. since 2013

At least two tornadoes struck Alabama's Lee County.

Residents look for belongings March 4, 2019 at a home after a tornado in Beauregard, Alabama. 

Residents look for belongings March 4 at a home after it was destroyed in a tornado in Beauregard, Alabama. Photo: Tami Chappell AFP/Getty Images

Science

extreme weather

Extreme weather

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

The share of U.S. adults who believe the GOP's position on climate change is outside the mainstream is higher than it was 4 years ago, according to an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll released over the weekend.

Why it matters: The results arrive as the 2020 election cycle is gathering steam and the Trump administration is moving ahead with efforts to dismantle Obama-era climate policies.

On the Republican Party position: 63% of all respondents believe the GOP position is outside the mainstream, up from 54% who held that view when the pollsters asked the same question in October 2015. 29% say it's in the mainstream and 7% weren't sure.

On the Democratic Party position: 35% of respondents said the Democratic position is outside the mainstream, 56% said it's in the mainstream and 8% weren't sure.

The big picture: "The question was intended to record general perceptions rather than views of individual proposals, such as the Green New Deal for addressing climate change proposed by several Democratic lawmakers," WSJ reports.

"Opinions could change as each party converges on detailed positions during the presidential campaign or congressional session," per WSJ.

Go deeper: Record number of Americans see climate change as a current threat

More Americans believe GOP's climate position isn't mainstream

The Canadian dollar, which had been one of the best-performing G10 currencies in the world this year, fell significantly on Friday. 

Driving the news: A slide in oil prices and reduced expectations for a rate hike from the Bank of Canada also hurt the loonie, which is edging towards its lowest level of the year against the U.S. dollar. Canada's economy grew at its slowest past in 2.5 years in the last quarter of 2018 and some economists say first quarter GDP growth this year will be even weaker.

"While a slowdown was widely expected in the final months of the year due to falling oil prices, it's a much bleaker picture than anyone anticipated," Bloomberg notes.

Why it matters: That's bad news for the global economy and especially bad news for Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

The big picture: A downward revision in the Q4 2018 numbers and a negative print on the Q1 2019 numbers would put Canada in a recession. That could mean 2 of the world's 10 largest economies in a recession, with Canada joining Italy, which fell into recession at the end of 2018.

Worse, Canada hasn’t hasn't had a recession without the U.S. economy also contracting since 1951.

For Trudeau, the news couldn't come at a worse time.

Canada's former attorney general and justice minister testified on Wednesday that Trudeau pressured her to drop corruption charges against an engineering company from Trudeau's hometown.

Andrew Scheer, the Canadian Conservative leader who hopes to unseat Trudeau in the Oct. 23 election, sent a letter to authorities requesting an investigation into the allegations.

New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh, who just won election over a member of Trudeau's party in British Columbia, also is demanding a public inquiry.

Trudeau's Liberals have recently lost their lead in the polls, claiming 33.9% of the vote, below the Conservatives' 35.8%, Time reports.

Canada and Justin Trudeau are in trouble

Canada hasn’t hasn't had a recession without the U.S. economy also contracting since 1951.

Business

Canada

World

SYDNEY, Australia — This country is at a crossroads with its energy future: one that aggressively moves toward cleaner resources in response to climate change versus one that holds onto fossil fuels far longer.

Why it matters: Australia is the poster child, but the entire world faces similar choices, albeit not quite as stark as Oz. Fossil-fuel exports are booming here while large swaths of its population are enduring the wrath of extreme weather — which scientists say is getting worse as global temperatures rise.

Driving the news: Australia is facing a federal election this spring that offers voters a stark contrast on climate change and energy, and the world a window into two very different futures.

“A lot of people think this will be the climate action election, that unless politicians are supportive of action on climate change, that they are less likely to be elected,” said Kerryn Phelps, an independent Parliament member, in an interview in the nation’s capital, Canberra.

In a nod to that sentiment, the current leadership, whose views generally align with that of President Trump and U.S. Republicans, has in just the past week proposed a series of policies that current Prime Minister Scott Morrison says will help address climate change.

The initiatives are far less ambitious than the ones being pushed by the opposing parties, which resemble that of U.S. Democrats.

Australia’s last five changes of prime minister, including one late last year, can be at least partially attributed to fights over climate and energy policies.

Australia’s Labor Party, akin to the left wing of America’s Democratic Party, is going into the election promising to roughly double both the country’s target to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and its renewable-energy target. The former goal is currently 26–28% below 2005 levels by 2030, and the latter is 20% by 2020.

The two parties currently in power as a coalition, the Liberal and National parties, are more closely aligned with America’s GOP. They just proposed government funding to adapt to climate change, improve energy efficiency and increase hydropower.

Here’s a snapshot of how central energy and climate change are here:

Australia is the world’s largest exporter of coal by value (Indonesia is largest by tons).

It's the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas exports.

It's home to the world’s biggest battery installation, at a wind farm in South Australia.

The country is grappling with a two-pronged electricity crisis with spiking prices and sporadic blackouts. While wind and solar, which only produce energy when the wind blows or the sun shines, face criticism for causing these problems, there are other, bigger factors.

Australia's hottest summer ever was just recorded.

A record “catastrophic” wildfire season plagued parts of the nation. 

A recent Brookings Institution report found that Australia is poised to be worse off if the world acts on the ambitions of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Australia’s current dependence on fossil-fuel exports would decline if other nations acted as aggressively as the Paris deal proposes. 

That’s a big if, though, considering most countries are on a far slower path to cleaner fuels.

The disagreement here in Oz is over how fast this transition could occur. 

To the executives managing coal exports at the Port of Newcastle, a sprawling industrial site a couple hours' drive north of Sydney, they’re banking on a long shift. The type of coal mined in the nearby Hunter Valley burns more efficiently than other kinds, and it’s close to growing economies in Southeast Asia.

“We’re well-positioned for this to be a longer rather shorter time frame because of where the market is positioned,” said Hennie du Plooy, CEO of Port Waratah Coal Services, in an interview at the port, the world’s largest coal-export terminal.

Independent analysts agree, despite a recent announcement by mining giant Glencore to cap coal production. The consulting firm Wood MacKenzie says demand for the Hunter Valley type coal will be stronger in a carbon-constrained world.

The biggest unknown for Australian producers is to what degree permits for new coal mines in Hunter Valley and elsewhere are rejected on the basis of climate change concerns, based on a potential precedent-setting court ruling last month. If there are fewer permits, there will be less coal for exports.

To sheep farmer Charlie Prell, who makes more than AU$150,000 ($106,000) a year for 11 wind turbines on his land in between Sydney and Canberra, the transition has been slowed by politicians beholden to fossil fuels.

During in an interview at his house, with one turbine so close you can hear the blades turn, Prell lays out a future far different than the coal executives.

“We can teach the world how to transition from this old-fashioned, fossil-fuel based economy to a clean economy, which is actually exporting renewable energy,” Prell said.

Prell was referring to early plans to export wind and solar to Indonesia via an undersea cable and initial developments for hydrogen-based energy.

What’s next: Australia’s elections, which determine party control that then decides the prime minister, are set for May.

How one Australian region kicked the coal habit

Why America is avoiding Australia's electricity woes

Why Australia's climate change election matters to the world

Australia is ground zero for a debate the whole world is having.

Illustration of the Australian flag with wind turbines instead of stars

Australia

Column / Harder Line

Tesla CEO Elon Musk tweeted Sunday that the company will unveil its Model Y crossover SUV on March 14 at L.A. Design Studio, and that it would "cost about 10% more [than the Model 3] & have slightly less range for same battery." 

The big picture: The announcement comes less than a week after Tesla said its long-awaited $35,000 Model 3 is available to order online. Musk said detailed specifications, price points and test rides will be available at the unveiling next week.

Why it matters, via Axios' Joann Muller: The Model Y would enter one of the most competitive segments in the market — compact crossover utilities. Musk implausibly aims to build one million copies at a yet-to-be-announced factory. That's more than Ford's wildly popular F-Series pickup, which isn't likely to be dethroned as America's best-selling vehicle anytime soon.

But the excitement over Tesla’s next model would surely help distract away from the company’s profit struggles.

Go deeper: How Tesla lost its minotaur soul

Elon Musk says Tesla will unveil Model Y crossover SUV on March 14

Musk said it would "cost about 10% more & have slightly less range for same battery."

Tesla

Technology

Electric vehicles

Elon Musk

Markets

Axios Markets

Tesla was never, technically, a minotaur: When it went public in 2010, it had raised just $482 million in equity capital, along with a $450 million loan from the Department of Energy. 

And even the IPO only raised another $276 million. Nevertheless, Elon Musk comes from true minotaur stock: Musk is a paid-up member of the PayPal Mafia — the group of entrepreneurs who all but invented the modern version of blitzscaling.

 His other company, SpaceX, is a fully fledged minotaur, having raised $2.4 billion in equity capital to date. Tesla also raised an astonishing $1.5 billion in a 2016 secondary offering designed to give Musk enough capital to build the Model 3.

For all its enormous size, the ambition behind the 2016 offering was so compelling that it drove Tesla's stock up, not down. Similarly, Dan Galves, an automotive industry analyst at Wolfe Research, tells Axios that if Musk wanted to do another large offering, that too would be bullish for the stock, since it would assuage market worries about a possible cash crunch.

Musk's compensation package is contingent on him reaching market-cap milestones that start at $100 billion and range all the way up to $650 billion. If he reaches that goal, he gets more than 20 million shares, which could be worth more than $50 billion. The deal gives him every incentive to remain in hypergrowth mode.

The other side: Maybe PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel drank all of Musk's minotaur blood, because Musk now has the zeal of the convert when it comes to cutting costs.

Tesla is effectively shutting its entire retail network to bring the price of the Model 3 down by 6%. For those keeping count, that makes three rounds of layoffs in less than a year, after significant cuts in June and January.

Elon Musk told Axios on HBO in November that the company came "within single-digit weeks" of death — that "if we didn't solve these problems in a very short period time, we would die." Which is to say: Musk considered running out of cash to be akin to death, even as the stock market was clearly showing that he could raise new equity capital at will.

The latest round of cost cutting coincides with the maturity of a $920 million convertible bond. Because the Tesla share price is below $360, the whole bond is being paid out of Tesla's shrinking cash pile.

Driving the news: Given Musk's rapidly escalating war with the SEC, trying to issue new equity at this time would require a decidedly uncharacteristic level of delicacy and diplomacy. But that doesn't fully explain why Musk doesn't want to keep on growing as fast as he can.

The bottom line: Musk has persuaded himself that a company making 500,000 cars per year can and should be able to fund itself out of its own cashflows. Just like we saw with Tesla's door handles, once he's made that decision, no force on Earth is going to be able to move him.

How Tesla lost its minotaur soul

Musk has persuaded himself that a company making 500,000 cars a year can and should be able to fund itself.

Animated illustration of a shrinking coin with Elon Musk's profile on it. 

Monday's energy & environment stories