Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

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Fire weather days in Northern Mountains of New Mexico, by year

Data: Climate Central/NOAA NCEI; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. 

The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while aggravating wildfire conditions prior to its arrival. 

The widespread threat of "critical" fire weather conditions exists on Thursday into Friday, with red flag warnings up across nine states from California to New Mexico and Colorado, even extending into the High Plains states.

The weather conditions threaten to worsen a severe start to the wildfire season across the drought-stricken region. 

Threat level: A powerful cold front and low-pressure area is moving into the northern Rockies, with extremely cold air poised to spill in behind it. 

This front will be preceded Thursday by near-record heat in the Southwest, as well as dry air and high winds.  

In Denver, temperatures will be near 90°F today with high winds, before snow falls Friday night into the first part of the weekend.

The heat today will tie or break records in many places. 

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100°F from the Plains to the Southwest will be as much as 30 degrees above average, the National Weather Service said in an online discussion Thursday. 

"Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities," the NWS stated about the heat in Texas, in particular. 

The heat will also be a key component of the extremely dangerous wildfire conditions Thursday and in some regions into Friday too.

Context: Several large fires are already burning in New Mexico, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, which at more than 300,000 acres is the largest in state history. 

Other blazes are burning in parts of Colorado, threatening to spread with the heat and strong winds. 

Of note: There is a long-term trend in many parts of the West toward more days that feature dangerous fire weather conditions. 

In the region where the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak blaze is burning, the average number of fire weather days per year — days with a combination of heat, high winds and dry air — has increased by 59 days since 1973. 

What's next: Once the cold front passes through central Colorado, it's likely that a significant snowstorm will take place from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to higher elevations, such as Rocky Mountain National Park. 

Computer models are showing the likelihood for as much as two or more feet of snow in some higher elevations, with at least a few slushy inches falling in downtown Denver. Some models are showing even more snow in the Denver region, possibly as much as 8 inches.  

May snowstorms are not unheard of in the Denver metro area, but in some areas, such as Boulder, this event could be especially historic. Since trees have greened up already, the potential for widespread power outages looms large. 

Denver

Picture of the Denver skyline with DEN written across it.

Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

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Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Denver may go from about 90 degrees on Thursday to 35 degrees and snow by Saturday morning.

Climate change

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. 

Driving the news: The first study, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the stifling and record heat seen this spring in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

Why it matters: India in particular is seeing a sharp increase in urban heat extremes, which can sicken or kill thousands. This year, India saw its hottest March, and Pakistan along with parts of India had their hottest April. The record heat has continued this month as well.

What they found: The study examines the shifting probability of exceeding the record-breaking temperatures seen in April and May of 2010.

It shows the probability of setting such records without human influence is about once in 312 years.

But due to climate change, this has ballooned to once every 3 years.

By the end of the century, this level of heat, with widespread temperatures at or above 120°F, may be an annual occurrence.

Meanwhile, a separate study examined one of Japan's most damaging typhoons on record, 2019's Typhoon Hagibis, which brought devastating flooding.

Threat level: The study, from researchers affiliated with the international World Weather Attribution effort, found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made the extreme rainfall as the storm made landfall 67% more likely.

In a stark finding, the study concluded that the effects of climate change boosted the storm’s damage by at least $4 billion out of the $10 billion in insured losses.

Zoom in: The dollar figure attribution stands out in the emerging field of extreme event research, which works to reveal how global warming is shifting the odds of the occurrence and/or severity of heat waves, floods and other major events.

For the new research, scientists at Oxford University and Imperial College London studied rainfall amounts from the storm, and used computer models to compare how likely the deluge is in a world warmed by greenhouse gas emissions compared to one without human influence.

As air warms, it is able to hold more water vapor that can then fuel storms and yield much heavier precipitation totals.

A 2020 study found that $67 billion of Hurricane Harvey's damage could be pinned on climate change.

The bottom line: “The negative consequences of the continued burning of fossil fuels are now evident and can be felt also in wealthy countries like Japan," Friederike Otto, who leads the World Weather Attribution effort, said in a statement.

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

Climate change drove at least $4 billion of Typhoon Hagibis' insured damages, a new study found.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022. (Weatherbell.com)

Global oil demand avoided by electric vehicles

Reproduced from BloombergNEF; Note: includes a small number of fuel-cell vehicles; Chart: Axios Visuals

Electric vehicles displaced roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil last year, new analysis shows, an amount slated to grow as EV sales keep rising.

Why it matters: The new estimates from the research firm BloombergNEF help to show EVs are shedding their status as a niche climate technology.

Total transportation fuel demand was 43.7 million barrels per day last year, the firm said.

The amount EVs have displaced doubled over the last six years, BloombergNEF said.

The intrigue: What kinds of EVs are doing the heaviest lifting right now is surprising (to me anyway!). 

"Two- and three-wheeled EVs accounted for 67% of the oil demand avoided in 2021," the report notes, citing rapid adoption in Asia.

Buses were next at 16% and then followed by passenger vehicles at 13%, though BloombergNEF adds that they're the fastest-growing segment.

The big picture: BloombergNEF said last year's displaced oil demand amounts to roughly one-fifth of Russia's pre-invasion exports.

EVs are shoving aside real volumes of oil

New estimates help to show EVs are shedding their status as a niche climate technology.

Electric vehicles

chart shows global oil demand avoided by electric vehicles

The United Nations is leading early discussions on forming a new global coalition to boost battery storage as part of a wider clean energy platform, Axios has learned. 

Driving the news: UN Secretary-General António Guterres laid out a five-point plan Wednesday morning to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide, including tackling thorny technology sharing issues between the industrialized world and developed nations. 

A key part of his plan is to advance renewable energy storage.  

The intrigue: It is likely the coalition would be led by a country or group of countries, rather than the UN itself.

Tech companies, manufacturers and financial institutions would be involved in the coalition as well. 

Making such technology work is a key challenge to overcome for large-scale deployment of clean energy sources. 

Details: In the video address accompanying the release of the “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization, Guterres also said renewable energy technologies such as battery storage should be treated as “essential and freely available global public goods.” 

This would mean making it easier to share knowledge and technologies, free from intellectual property constraints, to help countries around the world shift to clean energy, he said. 

Yes, but: Multiple climate agreements have called for technology sharing, but this has proved difficult to implement as companies and countries seek to hold onto their hard-won advances. 

UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

A five-point plan to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide

Photo of UN Secretary-General António Guterres

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on May 18.  Photo courtesy of the United Nations

United Nations (UN)

Global mean sea level

Data: AVISO+ Products; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Key data released Wednesday underscores how swiftly human activities are reshaping the climate.

Why it matters: The “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a stark reminder for policymakers and business leaders that if the world continues on its current course, climate impacts will escalate in severity and scope. 

The big picture: The WMO report confirms the past seven years were the warmest such period on record.

2021 was comparatively cool, at 1.11°C above the pre-industrial level, due to a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Once that event ends, and an inevitable El Niño sets in, a new warmest year will be crowned. 

Zoom in: Greenhouse gas concentrations reached a new high in 2021 and recently hit 420.23 ppm for the month of April 2022. 

Temperatures will continue to increase as long as carbon dioxide levels continue to go up, with a leveling off taking place once emissions reach zero. 

Ocean heat content hit a record high in 2021 — a telltale sign of a planet that is absorbing far more heat than it is releasing back into space. The vast majority of this extra heat goes into the oceans, with increasing temperatures in the upper 2,000 meters. 

Marine species are on the move as the ocean warms, and warming waters are altering the ocean’s ability to function as a giant carbon sink. Ocean chemistry is also changing as more CO2 is taken in, making waters more acidic. 

Threat level: Heat waves aren’t just a phenomenon felt on land, either, with marine heat waves observed on a global scale during 2021, wiping out some coral reefs and damaging others. 

Global mean sea level reached a record high too, with seas swelling at a faster rate than in the 1990s, which scientists have attributed to the growing ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica. 

The report highlights record ice mass loss among glaciers in Canada and the Pacific Northwest from extreme heat and wildfires last summer. 

The bottom line: The report amounts to an annual climate report card, and the planet fails to earn a passing grade. 

Yes, but: There are numerous solutions available to alter the planet’s trajectory if leaders act with urgency, as study after study has shown.  

Climate change benchmarks all set records last year, report finds

climate change effects

A powerful new online tool enables users to estimate the worldwide effect of local and state climate policies in the U.S.

Driving the news: The Climate Impact Lab, a research consortium, just unveiled the "Lives Saved Calculator."

It models avoided mortality and adaptation costs if specific local, state and national-level emissions-cutting and clean energy targets are met.

Users can input thousands of locations such as New York City, seen above, to see how those policies help deter deaths from heat waves.

Why it matters: It's a data-driven way of measuring the global benefits of national and even very local policies.

The calculator shows how emissions cuts anywhere have a tangible impact — regardless of what's happening in other areas or countries.

Zoom in: The group analyzes the benefits of each ton of avoided CO2 under a range of future emissions pathways.

(Even the lowest one modeled, RCP 4.5, for you wonks out there, sees emissions growth that blows past Paris Agreement temperature goals.)

Let's say the roughly 10 states with final targets in place for 100% clean power by 2050 meet their goals. This would shave enough off global temperature growth to save 118,000-269,000 lives worldwide through 2100.

Or consider what happens if 13 states (and D.C.) hit their wider midcentury net-zero emissions targets. That could save an estimated 1 million to 2.4 million lives through 2100.

Of note: It uses methodology behind new research in The Quarterly Journal of Economics on relationships between temperature and mortality.

What they're saying: Climate Impact Lab co-director Trevor Houser said it can help local policymakers see their work matters — even though emissions in their area are very small in the grand scheme of things.

"Because of this research, we can really quantify...the attributable benefits of efforts to reduce emissions at any level in terms of avoided warming and the resulting costs on human health and welfare," he said in an interview.

The global impact of local carbon cuts

It's a data-driven way of measuring the global benefits of national and even very local policies.

clean energy

Illustration of a magnifying glass magnifying part of blurring earth

At 298,060 acres as of Monday morning, the Calf Canyon Fire in New Mexico is now the largest blaze in state history, surpassing the Whitewater-Baldy Fire of 2012.

Why it matters: Mired in a megadrought fueled by climate change, New Mexico and the rest of the Southwest are already experiencing major fires this year. Other western states are likely to see severe wildfire seasons due to a shorter-term drought that extends across the entire West.

Threat level: A red flag warning is in effect Monday for northeastern New Mexico, including the area in and around the wildfire, between noon and 8pm local time.

There is a threat of erratic winds gusting to 60 mph at times, near-record high temperatures, and dry lightning strikes that could cause further ignitions and spread the fire. Thousands have already been displaced from the blaze, including from tourism-dependent locations in Taos County.

For Monday, the National Weather Service is predicting "near critical" wildfire weather conditions, which will challenge firefighters as they struggle to increase containment on the fire, which stood at just 27% as of Monday morning.

The Calf Canyon Fire is, in fact, the largest wildfire anywhere in the U.S. so far this year.

The heat and low humidity levels are expected to continue throughout the week. Forecasters are also concerned about heat and high winds spreading the fire on Tuesday, with even more widespread critical fire weather for Thursday and Friday, due to the combination of dry conditions and high winds. 

The big picture: The Calf Canyon Fire is the result of a combination of two fires, one of which, the Hermit's Peak Fire, was a prescribed burn set April 6 by the federal government. It escaped containment amid high winds and dry weather and eventually merged with the nearby Calf Canyon blaze.

New Mexico typically sees its biggest fires in May and the first part of June before the Southwest monsoon kicks in and brings more moisture into the region. This year, the fires started earlier and were larger than average for that time of year. 

Go deeper: Northern New Mexico wildfire forces more evacuations

New Mexico Calf Canyon Fire becomes largest in state history

The fire surpassed a 2012 blaze for the top spot, and it is still growing.

The Calf Canyon Wildfire seen from space on May 11, 2022.

Wildfires

Projected percentage increase in properties with a moderate risk of burning

Note: Moderate risk is defined as having between 1-6% chance of experiencing a wildfire during the next 30 years; Data: First Street Foundation; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

New research shows climate change will cause a steep increase in the exposure of U.S. properties to wildfire risks during the next 30 years, doubling the risk level in many areas.

Why it matters: While broad trends in wildfire risks have become clear, this is the first time probability-based wildfire risk data will be made available to property owners and prospective owners to help them make informed decisions.

Driving the news: With wildfires already raging across the West, scientists have shown clear links between human-driven climate change and escalating wildfire intensity, frequency and size. In addition, the seasonal timing of wildfires is shifting in many states, with fires lasting later into the fall and beginning earlier in the spring.

Zoom in: The new report and its accompanying tool come from the nonprofit First Street Foundation, known for mapping flood risks.

Its new "Fire Factor" risk score seeks to capture the changing risk profile of individual properties as global warming continues, both in terms of exposure to a wildfire and shifts in wildfire intensity.

In a report accompanying the Fire Factor release, the researchers present the state-by-state findings from its new peer-reviewed, open source risk model, which projects wildfire risk out to 30 years — the span of a typical mortgage.

It finds that many properties currently at risk of fire will see their wildfire risk double during the next 30 years, due to the effects of climate change.

Details: The report finds that a total of about 80 million properties are at some level of wildfire risk during the next three decades. Of these, 20.2 million properties face "moderate" risk, which is defined as having up to a 6% chance of experiencing a wildfire during the next 30 years.

About 6 million properties face a "major" risk, which is a 6%-14% risk of a wildfire. 

About 1.5 million properties face "extreme" risk, which is defined as a greater than 26% risk during the period. 

A total of 49.4 million properties face a cumulative burn probability of less than 1% over the next three decades, for a "minor risk."

Threat level: According to the report, the states with the largest amounts of properties at risk include: California, Texas, Florida, Arizona and Oklahoma. 

The states with the largest increase in properties with minor risk or greater during the next 30 years are Colorado, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas and Montana. Many southeastern states would also see an increase in wildfire risk.

"The thing that we noticed right away was the amount of risk that's in Texas, Florida, in places outside the typical wildfire areas," Matthew Eby, founder and executive director of the First Street Foundation, told Axios.

Climate change is also expected to move many properties from the moderate to major risk categories, a trend the report describes as a "looming catastrophe."

Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico and Utah would see the biggest increases in properties with major wildfire risk by 2052.

Between the lines: The open source nature of the modeling stands out from many climate intelligence firms that approach similar problems using proprietary methods, sometimes referred to as "black box" models since their data and methods are semi-hidden.

How they did it: To arrive at the results, the model simulated fire behavior millions of times, capturing a probabilistic view of how a wildfire could move across the landscape under different conditions. It also includes information on wildfire intensity (how hot flames will be when they reach a property), and how this may change over time.

This intensity metric can be useful for property vulnerability assessments that could encourage property owners to take risk reduction measures, like changing a home's roof type to one that is more fire resistant and clearing nearby vegetation to increase the defensible space. 

The "Fire Factor" risk score will be included on a dedicated website and be integrated across residential real estate listing sites like realtor.com and commercial property services such as Crexi.

What they're saying: "A little more than one out of two single family homes across the country has at least some wildfire risks," Sara Brinton, lead product manager for realtor.com, told Axios. "We think it's important for every American to have access to this type of information."

Where homes will face the most wildfire risk in next 30 years

The "Fire Factor" score puts more climate risk information into the hands of property owners.

Seventeen Republican attorneys general filed a lawsuit against the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) on Friday for letting California set its own vehicle emission standards.

Driving the news: The suit alleges that EPA Administrator Michael Regan violated the Constitution's doctrine of equal sovereignty by giving California an exemption from the Clean Air Act and allowing the state to impose emissions limits that are stricter than the nationwide standard.

The attorneys general argue that doing so allows California to impose its stringent limits on all new vehicles and amounts to favoritism.

The big picture: The exemption was previously granted to California in 2013. Regan restored it this March after the Trump administration revoked it in 2019.

Regan said in the announcement that restoring the exemption "reinstates an approach that for years has helped advance clean technologies and cut air pollution for people not just in California, but for the U.S. as a whole.”

17 GOP attorneys general sue EPA over California vehicle emission standards

The suit alleges that the EPA violated the Constitution by letting California set its own vehicle emission limits.

EPA Administrator Michael Regan speaks during a press conference at the Department of Justice on May 5. Photo: Win McNamee via Getty Images

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Senior U.S. officials are huddling weekly to assess and share information on the environmental threats Ukraine faces due to Russia's invasion, Axios has learned.

The goal of the interagency group, which is comprised of 21 federal agencies, is to assist the Ukrainian government with tracking and mitigating environmental hazards, some of which could last for years after fighting ends. 

 Why it matters: The destruction of civilian infrastructure, such as water treatment plants, fuel depots and hazardous waste sites, is creating complex threats to the ecosystems people depend upon for food, water and other uses. 

Zoom in: The State Department stood up the working group about a month ago in response to a request for assistance from the Ukrainian government, State Department officials told Axios.

Participants include representatives from NASA, the EPA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Forest Service, the Army Corps of Engineers, the U.S. Geological Survey and the Department of Defense. 

The Forest Service and its partners in Ukraine, for example, are working to monitor wildfires and run fire risk models for the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, where fires could spread radioactive material.

Known as the "Interagency Working Group on Environmental Damage in Ukraine," the group covers a wide range of issues, from pollution resulting from the war to changes in wildfire risk as battles rage in and around forested lands. In addition, war-related waste and debris management is part of its remit, as is biodiversity loss.

The group is spearheaded by a unit within the State Department known as the Bureau of Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs. Other bureaus are assisting with the effort, a State Department official said.

The intrigue: Ukraine requested help in documenting environmental damage in part to try to hold Russia accountable for it after the conflict, the official said.

Ukraine is seeking access to data that can reveal a before-and-after view of the country's environmental resources, including biodiversity and protected sites, as well as the damage to sites that are now causing significant amounts of pollution, the official stated.

Between the lines: The work the U.S. is doing includes everything from satellite monitoring of pollution and possible wildfires via NASA satellites and Forest Service programs to monitoring agricultural resources and supply chain disruptions to Ukraine's prized wheat crop.

NASA is preparing wheat yield reports and tracking the progress of the harvest, as well as monitoring global crop conditions.

According to Lara Peterson, assistant director for Russia, Europe and Eurasia at the Forest Service and a participant in the interagency group, her agency is also working to try to scale up wilderness-based therapy programs for those traumatized by the conflict, when it is safe to do so.

The Forest Service already runs such programs in the U.S., she said.  

Our thought bubble: In war, the environment typically suffers, and Ukraine and the U.S. are essentially engaged in an environmental intelligence-sharing relationship, much as the military is with the Ukrainian armed forces. 

Exclusive: 21 federal agencies monitoring Ukraine war's environmental toll

Ukraine requested assistance in creating a "before" and "after" view of its environment.

Satellite image of damage to Mariupol, Ukraine, on April 9, 2022.

Russian invasion of Ukraine

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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