Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

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A hazardous weather weekend is shaping up across much of the Lower 48 states, with a potentially historic late May snowstorm cranking up across the Rockies and a heat wave hitting the East Coast.

Why it matters: More than 100 million Americans are experiencing dangerous weather conditions this weekend, as a cold front slams Colorado and southern Wyoming with heavy snow and a potentially record breaking heat wave surges toward the Northeast.

The big picture: A powerful cold front and its associated low-pressure area drove southeastward across the Rockies Friday, bringing heavy snow to parts of Wyoming and Colorado.

Colorado Springs recorded over 9 inches of snow as of Saturday morning, while multiple towns west of Denver had over 10 inches on Friday night, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

The town of Black Hawk, Colorado, reported 11 inches of snow as of Friday evening.

 The highest snowfall amounts recorded Saturday were in the mountains and foothills west of Denver and Boulder, with up to two feet reported around the Floyd Hill area, according to NWS Boulder.

More than 93,000 customers were without power in Colorado as of Saturday afternoon, according to the tracking service poweroutage.us.

Multiple reporting locations in Wyoming's portion of the Medicine Bow-Routt National Forests recorded more than a foot of snow on Friday.

The heavy snow is the result of winds pushing cold, moist air up and over the higher terrain, in a phenomenon known as upsloping.

Importantly, a forecast consensus has come together for more snowfall than previously expected in the urban corridor between Denver and Boulder, Colorado, with about six to eight inches or more possible in these areas, depending on snowfall rates and the exact surface temperature.

Sharply higher amounts will pile up in the foothills, though, and records for late May could be threatened or broken in some locations. Parts of Boulder, for example, could see a foot of snowfall before the event wraps up on Saturday afternoon

Threat level: The heavy snow falling on trees that already have their leaves could yield widespread tree damage and lasting power outages in the Denver and Boulder areas, and in some cases power may not be restored for days, according to the NWS.

The agency is warning residents not to park their cars near a tree, since it might topple onto the vehicle.

To the south of the snowstorm, dry and windy conditions are bringing yet another day of concerning fire weather conditions to parts of Utah, New Mexico and western Texas on Saturday.

Numerous wildfires are already burning throughout this region, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, the largest in New Mexico's history. Other fires are burning in southern Colorado and west Texas.

Meanwhile... Across the eastern part of the country, an unusually hot weekend is in store as a heat dome that had been parked over Texas shifts eastward. Widespread record-breaking temperatures are expected across the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Ohio and Tennessee Valleys through Sunday. 

Much of the Northeast is under a heat advisory until 8 p.m. EDT on Saturday, with heat index values of 95 to 99 degrees expected for parts of New York, northwestern Connecticut and southeastern Vermont.

High temperatures will climb to the upper 90s° in Washington, D.C., Saturday, potentially breaking the previous record of 95°F set in 1934. As of Saturday morning, temperatures were already in the low 80s.

More than 100 million people will experience temperatures that are 20 to 30 degrees above average for this time of year.

It is possible that some monthly high-temperature records will fall, especially in the Northeast.

For most people in the East, the heat wave will be the hottest weather they will have experienced since August 2021. The first heat wave of the season can be particularly dangerous, with higher risks of heat-related illness since people are not yet accustomed to such high temperatures.

"The abrupt beginning of hot temperatures early in the season after a relatively cool spring brings an increased risk of heat illnesses unless proper precautions are taken for those working or recreating outdoors," the NWS said in a special weather statement.

"Since many outdoor events are planned this weekend in the region, be aware of the heat, and take extra precautions if you work or spend time outside this weekend. Reschedule strenuous activities to early morning or evening."

Human-caused climate change is making heat waves around the world more intense and more likely to occur and may be expanding their seasonal timing earlier in the spring and later into the fall.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with new details throughout.

Extreme weather plagues U.S., from Colorado snowstorm to East Coast heat

From wildfires to heavy snow and a stifling heat wave, this weekend will feature an unusual array of hazards.

Computer model depiction of forecast highs and records along the East Coast for May 21, 2022.

National Weather Service forecast highs for Saturday, May 21, 2022. The boxes indicate record-setting temperatures. (Weatherbell.com)

extreme weather

Extreme weather

Climate change

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Finland's state-owned energy company warned Friday that Russia will halt natural gas exports to the country on Saturday after it refused to make payments in rubles, as the Kremlin demanded in March.

Why it matters: Finland will be the third European country to lose gas imports from Russia since the start of the Kremlin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. The expected cutoff comes on the heels of Helsinki formally applying to join NATO.

Gasum, Finland's energy provider, said its filling stations will continue to function normally. It will receive gas from an alternative source through the Balticconnector pipeline, which runs from Estonia to Finland.

The Finnish government also signed a ten-year lease agreement on Friday for a U.S. liquefied natural gas terminal ship to safeguard the country's energy supply.

What they're saying: “It is highly regrettable that natural gas supplies under our supply contract will now be halted," said Mika Wiljane, Gasum's CEO, in a statement. 

"We have been carefully preparing for this situation,” he added.

The big picture: Russia cut gas exports to Poland and Bulgaria in April after those countries also refused to make payments in rubles. They and others have said the ultimatum amounts to a breach of contract. 

Russian President Putin's payment demand was part of an effort to bolster the ruble, which collapsed immediately after the invasion of Ukraine. However, the currency has recently rebounded.

Putin warned Finnish President Sauli Niinistö last week that a Finnish application for NATO membership "could have a negative effect" on relations between the two countries. Finland and Sweden both formally applied to join the defensive alliance this week.

Go deeper: Finland and Sweden bring military might to NATO

Russia to halt gas exports to Finland, energy provider says

It will be the third European country to which Russia has cut off gas since the start of the Ukraine invasion.

A Gasum plant in Raikkola, Imatra, Finland, in May.

A Gasum plant in Raikkola, Imatra, Finland, in May. Photo: Vesa Moilanen/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images

Finland

Russia

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Fire weather days in Northern Mountains of New Mexico, by year

Data: Climate Central/NOAA NCEI; Chart: Baidi Wang/Axios

A wide range of extreme weather is on tap for the West beginning on Thursday and lasting through Saturday, which could include record heat, high winds, dangerous fire weather conditions and even a major snowstorm. 

The big picture: An intense cold front and storm system dives southeastward across the Rockies, bringing a potentially historic May snowstorm to the Colorado foothills and mountains, while aggravating wildfire conditions prior to its arrival. 

The widespread threat of "critical" fire weather conditions exists on Thursday into Friday, with red flag warnings up across nine states from California to New Mexico and Colorado, even extending into the High Plains states.

The weather conditions threaten to worsen a severe start to the wildfire season across the drought-stricken region. 

Threat level: A powerful cold front and low-pressure area is moving into the northern Rockies, with extremely cold air poised to spill in behind it. 

This front will be preceded Thursday by near-record heat in the Southwest, as well as dry air and high winds.  

In Denver, temperatures will be near 90°F today with high winds, before snow falls Friday night into the first part of the weekend.

The heat today will tie or break records in many places. 

Temperatures in the 90s to around 100°F from the Plains to the Southwest will be as much as 30 degrees above average, the National Weather Service said in an online discussion Thursday. 

"Extreme heat will significantly increase the potential for heat related illnesses, particularly for those working or participating in outdoor activities," the NWS stated about the heat in Texas, in particular. 

The heat will also be a key component of the extremely dangerous wildfire conditions Thursday and in some regions into Friday too.

Context: Several large fires are already burning in New Mexico, including the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire, which at more than 300,000 acres is the largest in state history. 

Other blazes are burning in parts of Colorado, threatening to spread with the heat and strong winds. 

Of note: There is a long-term trend in many parts of the West toward more days that feature dangerous fire weather conditions. 

In the region where the Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak blaze is burning, the average number of fire weather days per year — days with a combination of heat, high winds and dry air — has increased by 59 days since 1973. 

What's next: Once the cold front passes through central Colorado, it's likely that a significant snowstorm will take place from the foothills of the Rocky Mountains to higher elevations, such as Rocky Mountain National Park. 

Computer models are showing the likelihood for as much as two or more feet of snow in some higher elevations, with at least a few slushy inches falling in downtown Denver. Some models are showing even more snow in the Denver region, possibly as much as 8 inches.  

May snowstorms are not unheard of in the Denver metro area, but in some areas, such as Boulder, this event could be especially historic. Since trees have greened up already, the potential for widespread power outages looms large. 

Denver

Picture of the Denver skyline with DEN written across it.

Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporters John Frank and Alayna Alvarez.

Axios Denver

Denver Alerts

Axios Denver Thought Bubble

Wild weather includes "critical" fire risk, incoming Colorado snowstorm

Denver may go from about 90 degrees on Thursday to 35 degrees and snow by Saturday morning.

The Calf Canyon-Hermits Peak Fire seen from a Maxar satellite.

Two new climate attribution studies underline the growing role human-caused climate change plays in worsening extreme weather events. 

Driving the news: The first study, out Wednesday from the U.K. Met Office, shows that climate change has already made the stifling and record heat seen this spring in northern India and Pakistan 100 times more likely to occur.

Why it matters: India in particular is seeing a sharp increase in urban heat extremes, which can sicken or kill thousands. This year, India saw its hottest March, and Pakistan along with parts of India had their hottest April. The record heat has continued this month as well.

What they found: The study examines the shifting probability of exceeding the record-breaking temperatures seen in April and May of 2010.

It shows the probability of setting such records without human influence is about once in 312 years.

But due to climate change, this has ballooned to once every 3 years.

By the end of the century, this level of heat, with widespread temperatures at or above 120°F, may be an annual occurrence.

Meanwhile, a separate study examined one of Japan's most damaging typhoons on record, 2019's Typhoon Hagibis, which brought devastating flooding.

Threat level: The study, from researchers affiliated with the international World Weather Attribution effort, found that human emissions of greenhouse gases made the extreme rainfall as the storm made landfall 67% more likely.

In a stark finding, the study concluded that the effects of climate change boosted the storm’s damage by at least $4 billion out of the $10 billion in insured losses.

Zoom in: The dollar figure attribution stands out in the emerging field of extreme event research, which works to reveal how global warming is shifting the odds of the occurrence and/or severity of heat waves, floods and other major events.

For the new research, scientists at Oxford University and Imperial College London studied rainfall amounts from the storm, and used computer models to compare how likely the deluge is in a world warmed by greenhouse gas emissions compared to one without human influence.

As air warms, it is able to hold more water vapor that can then fuel storms and yield much heavier precipitation totals.

A 2020 study found that $67 billion of Hurricane Harvey's damage could be pinned on climate change.

The bottom line: “The negative consequences of the continued burning of fossil fuels are now evident and can be felt also in wealthy countries like Japan," Friederike Otto, who leads the World Weather Attribution effort, said in a statement.

Studies show climate change is increasingly driving extreme weather risks

Climate change drove at least $4 billion of Typhoon Hagibis' insured damages, a new study found.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022.

Computer model depiction of high temperatures on May 19, 2022. (Weatherbell.com)

Global oil demand avoided by electric vehicles

Reproduced from BloombergNEF; Note: includes a small number of fuel-cell vehicles; Chart: Axios Visuals

Electric vehicles displaced roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil last year, new analysis shows, an amount slated to grow as EV sales keep rising.

Why it matters: The new estimates from the research firm BloombergNEF help to show EVs are shedding their status as a niche climate technology.

Total transportation fuel demand was 43.7 million barrels per day last year, the firm said.

The amount EVs have displaced doubled over the last six years, BloombergNEF said.

The intrigue: What kinds of EVs are doing the heaviest lifting right now is surprising (to me anyway!). 

"Two- and three-wheeled EVs accounted for 67% of the oil demand avoided in 2021," the report notes, citing rapid adoption in Asia.

Buses were next at 16% and then followed by passenger vehicles at 13%, though BloombergNEF adds that they're the fastest-growing segment.

The big picture: BloombergNEF said last year's displaced oil demand amounts to roughly one-fifth of Russia's pre-invasion exports.

EVs are shoving aside real volumes of oil

New estimates help to show EVs are shedding their status as a niche climate technology.

Electric vehicles

chart shows global oil demand avoided by electric vehicles

The United Nations is leading early discussions on forming a new global coalition to boost battery storage as part of a wider clean energy platform, Axios has learned. 

Driving the news: UN Secretary-General António Guterres laid out a five-point plan Wednesday morning to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide, including tackling thorny technology sharing issues between the industrialized world and developed nations. 

A key part of his plan is to advance renewable energy storage.  

The intrigue: It is likely the coalition would be led by a country or group of countries, rather than the UN itself.

Tech companies, manufacturers and financial institutions would be involved in the coalition as well. 

Making such technology work is a key challenge to overcome for large-scale deployment of clean energy sources. 

Details: In the video address accompanying the release of the “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization, Guterres also said renewable energy technologies such as battery storage should be treated as “essential and freely available global public goods.” 

This would mean making it easier to share knowledge and technologies, free from intellectual property constraints, to help countries around the world shift to clean energy, he said. 

Yes, but: Multiple climate agreements have called for technology sharing, but this has proved difficult to implement as companies and countries seek to hold onto their hard-won advances. 

UN boss unveils new clean energy proposals

A five-point plan to dramatically scale up renewable energy use worldwide

Photo of UN Secretary-General António Guterres

UN Secretary-General António Guterres on May 18.  Photo courtesy of the United Nations

United Nations (UN)

Global mean sea level

Data: AVISO+ Products; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Key data released Wednesday underscores how swiftly human activities are reshaping the climate.

Why it matters: The “State of the Climate” report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is a stark reminder for policymakers and business leaders that if the world continues on its current course, climate impacts will escalate in severity and scope. 

The big picture: The WMO report confirms the past seven years were the warmest such period on record.

2021 was comparatively cool, at 1.11°C above the pre-industrial level, due to a La Niña event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

Once that event ends, and an inevitable El Niño sets in, a new warmest year will be crowned. 

Zoom in: Greenhouse gas concentrations reached a new high in 2021 and recently hit 420.23 ppm for the month of April 2022. 

Temperatures will continue to increase as long as carbon dioxide levels continue to go up, with a leveling off taking place once emissions reach zero. 

Ocean heat content hit a record high in 2021 — a telltale sign of a planet that is absorbing far more heat than it is releasing back into space. The vast majority of this extra heat goes into the oceans, with increasing temperatures in the upper 2,000 meters. 

Marine species are on the move as the ocean warms, and warming waters are altering the ocean’s ability to function as a giant carbon sink. Ocean chemistry is also changing as more CO2 is taken in, making waters more acidic. 

Threat level: Heat waves aren’t just a phenomenon felt on land, either, with marine heat waves observed on a global scale during 2021, wiping out some coral reefs and damaging others. 

Global mean sea level reached a record high too, with seas swelling at a faster rate than in the 1990s, which scientists have attributed to the growing ice melt in Greenland and Antarctica. 

The report highlights record ice mass loss among glaciers in Canada and the Pacific Northwest from extreme heat and wildfires last summer. 

The bottom line: The report amounts to an annual climate report card, and the planet fails to earn a passing grade. 

Yes, but: There are numerous solutions available to alter the planet’s trajectory if leaders act with urgency, as study after study has shown.  

Climate change benchmarks all set records last year, report finds

climate change effects

A powerful new online tool enables users to estimate the worldwide effect of local and state climate policies in the U.S.

Driving the news: The Climate Impact Lab, a research consortium, just unveiled the "Lives Saved Calculator."

It models avoided mortality and adaptation costs if specific local, state and national-level emissions-cutting and clean energy targets are met.

Users can input thousands of locations such as New York City, seen above, to see how those policies help deter deaths from heat waves.

Why it matters: It's a data-driven way of measuring the global benefits of national and even very local policies.

The calculator shows how emissions cuts anywhere have a tangible impact — regardless of what's happening in other areas or countries.

Zoom in: The group analyzes the benefits of each ton of avoided CO2 under a range of future emissions pathways.

(Even the lowest one modeled, RCP 4.5, for you wonks out there, sees emissions growth that blows past Paris Agreement temperature goals.)

Let's say the roughly 10 states with final targets in place for 100% clean power by 2050 meet their goals. This would shave enough off global temperature growth to save 118,000-269,000 lives worldwide through 2100.

Or consider what happens if 13 states (and D.C.) hit their wider midcentury net-zero emissions targets. That could save an estimated 1 million to 2.4 million lives through 2100.

Of note: It uses methodology behind new research in The Quarterly Journal of Economics on relationships between temperature and mortality.

What they're saying: Climate Impact Lab co-director Trevor Houser said it can help local policymakers see their work matters — even though emissions in their area are very small in the grand scheme of things.

"Because of this research, we can really quantify...the attributable benefits of efforts to reduce emissions at any level in terms of avoided warming and the resulting costs on human health and welfare," he said in an interview.

The global impact of local carbon cuts

It's a data-driven way of measuring the global benefits of national and even very local policies.

clean energy

Illustration of a magnifying glass magnifying part of blurring earth

At 298,060 acres as of Monday morning, the Calf Canyon Fire in New Mexico is now the largest blaze in state history, surpassing the Whitewater-Baldy Fire of 2012.

Why it matters: Mired in a megadrought fueled by climate change, New Mexico and the rest of the Southwest are already experiencing major fires this year. Other western states are likely to see severe wildfire seasons due to a shorter-term drought that extends across the entire West.

Threat level: A red flag warning is in effect Monday for northeastern New Mexico, including the area in and around the wildfire, between noon and 8pm local time.

There is a threat of erratic winds gusting to 60 mph at times, near-record high temperatures, and dry lightning strikes that could cause further ignitions and spread the fire. Thousands have already been displaced from the blaze, including from tourism-dependent locations in Taos County.

For Monday, the National Weather Service is predicting "near critical" wildfire weather conditions, which will challenge firefighters as they struggle to increase containment on the fire, which stood at just 27% as of Monday morning.

The Calf Canyon Fire is, in fact, the largest wildfire anywhere in the U.S. so far this year.

The heat and low humidity levels are expected to continue throughout the week. Forecasters are also concerned about heat and high winds spreading the fire on Tuesday, with even more widespread critical fire weather for Thursday and Friday, due to the combination of dry conditions and high winds. 

The big picture: The Calf Canyon Fire is the result of a combination of two fires, one of which, the Hermit's Peak Fire, was a prescribed burn set April 6 by the federal government. It escaped containment amid high winds and dry weather and eventually merged with the nearby Calf Canyon blaze.

New Mexico typically sees its biggest fires in May and the first part of June before the Southwest monsoon kicks in and brings more moisture into the region. This year, the fires started earlier and were larger than average for that time of year. 

Go deeper: Northern New Mexico wildfire forces more evacuations

New Mexico Calf Canyon Fire becomes largest in state history

The fire surpassed a 2012 blaze for the top spot, and it is still growing.

The Calf Canyon Wildfire seen from space on May 11, 2022.

Wildfires

Projected percentage increase in properties with a moderate risk of burning

Note: Moderate risk is defined as having between 1-6% chance of experiencing a wildfire during the next 30 years; Data: First Street Foundation; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals

New research shows climate change will cause a steep increase in the exposure of U.S. properties to wildfire risks during the next 30 years, doubling the risk level in many areas.

Why it matters: While broad trends in wildfire risks have become clear, this is the first time probability-based wildfire risk data will be made available to property owners and prospective owners to help them make informed decisions.

Driving the news: With wildfires already raging across the West, scientists have shown clear links between human-driven climate change and escalating wildfire intensity, frequency and size. In addition, the seasonal timing of wildfires is shifting in many states, with fires lasting later into the fall and beginning earlier in the spring.

Zoom in: The new report and its accompanying tool come from the nonprofit First Street Foundation, known for mapping flood risks.

Its new "Fire Factor" risk score seeks to capture the changing risk profile of individual properties as global warming continues, both in terms of exposure to a wildfire and shifts in wildfire intensity.

In a report accompanying the Fire Factor release, the researchers present the state-by-state findings from its new peer-reviewed, open source risk model, which projects wildfire risk out to 30 years — the span of a typical mortgage.

It finds that many properties currently at risk of fire will see their wildfire risk double during the next 30 years, due to the effects of climate change.

Details: The report finds that a total of about 80 million properties are at some level of wildfire risk during the next three decades. Of these, 20.2 million properties face "moderate" risk, which is defined as having up to a 6% chance of experiencing a wildfire during the next 30 years.

About 6 million properties face a "major" risk, which is a 6%-14% risk of a wildfire. 

About 1.5 million properties face "extreme" risk, which is defined as a greater than 26% risk during the period. 

A total of 49.4 million properties face a cumulative burn probability of less than 1% over the next three decades, for a "minor risk."

Threat level: According to the report, the states with the largest amounts of properties at risk include: California, Texas, Florida, Arizona and Oklahoma. 

The states with the largest increase in properties with minor risk or greater during the next 30 years are Colorado, Alabama, Mississippi, Texas and Montana. Many southeastern states would also see an increase in wildfire risk.

"The thing that we noticed right away was the amount of risk that's in Texas, Florida, in places outside the typical wildfire areas," Matthew Eby, founder and executive director of the First Street Foundation, told Axios.

Climate change is also expected to move many properties from the moderate to major risk categories, a trend the report describes as a "looming catastrophe."

Wyoming, Arizona, New Mexico and Utah would see the biggest increases in properties with major wildfire risk by 2052.

Where homes will face the most wildfire risk in next 30 years

The "Fire Factor" score puts more climate risk information into the hands of property owners.

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