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How climate change touches nearly everything in our lives.

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The latest developments that matter as governments and businesses ramp up use of renewable energy.

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The latest developments that matter from BP, Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron and more.

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Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

National

The death toll from Hurricane Ian surpassed 100 on Thursday, as Floridians continued to return home to the devastation left behind.

The big picture: The storm-related death count reached at least 101, eight days after Ian pummeled Florida's western coast before barreling through the Carolinas.

Of those killed, 98 were in Florida, five were in North Carolina, three in Cuba and one in Virginia, per AP.

Most of those who died in Florida drowned due to the storm surge that Ian triggered, according to the state's Medical Examiners Commission. 

Where it stands: Hurricane Ian is now the second-deadliest storm to strike the mainland U.S. in the 21st century, AP notes.

It's second to Hurricane Katrina, which killed more than 1,800 people in 2005.

Ian is also Florida's deadliest hurricane since 1935.

Situation report: The destructive storm surge caused homes and other structures to flood, and washed away roads and bridges.

More than 1,000 crew members continued search and rescue operations  Thursday, Gov. Ron DeSantis said in an emailed statement.

Although power has be restored to over 2.4 million people, some 210,770 remained without it as of Thursday afternoon, he added.

Debris removal has begun in the state, most heavily focused in southwest Florida.

Floridians weigh whether to stay or go post-Hurricane Ian

Biden says events like Hurricane Ian end climate change debate

Tampa Bay

Axios Tampa Bay Thought Bubble

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Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporter Ben Montgomery.

Axios Tampa Bay

Miami

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A daily look at the most significant and interesting stories affecting Miami.

Axios Miami Thought Bubble

Axios Miami

Hurricane Ian is Florida's deadliest in nearly a century

Ian is the second-deadliest storm to strike the mainland U.S. this century.

 A resident takes photos of her damaged house following Hurricane Ian in Matlacha, Florida, US, on Wednesday, Oct. 5.

A  Matlacha, Florida, resident on Wednesday overlooking her house that was damaged as Hurricane Ian lashed the state last week. Photographer: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Hurricane Ian

Extreme weather

A look at the scientific breakthroughs changing the world, explorations in space and in worlds beyond our own and the threats posed to us by our own planet, both out of our control and of our own making.

Science

Axios Generate

The Treasury Department said it's moving quickly to transform new and expanded tax credits in the big climate law into formal guidance that's important for spurring use of the incentives.

Driving the news: Treasury yesterday solicited public comment within 30 days on a slew of areas like subsidies for renewable power, manufacturing and more.

It includes calls for input on specific topics like labor and domestic content rules linked to the subsidies.

Why it matters: Various kinds of tax incentives are meant to be the biggest muscles in the law — they represent $270 billion of the roughly $370 billion of the climate and energy investments.

But Treasury's efforts to transform the statutory language into more granular guidance are key for project developers and other companies.

What we're watching: "The goal to complete the rule-writing process for some programs in the coming months means that the Internal Revenue Service will have to move much more rapidly than normal," Bloomberg reports.

Treasury seeking input on climate law's $270B of tax incentives

The incentives are meant to be the biggest muscles in the law.

Illustration of blueprints colored green with the map of the United States drawn 

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland announced Wednesday that the U.S. will expand the Sand Creek Massacre National Historic Site dedicated to commemorating the Native Americans slaughtered by U.S. troops in 1864.

Flashback: In November that year, U.S. soldiers attacked an encampment of roughly 750 Native people along the high banks of Sand Creek in what is now southeastern Colorado. They wounded and killed about 230 people, half of whom were women and children.

The mass murders came after John Evans, whom white people considered the territorial governor at the time, issued a proclamation calling on non-Native residents to "go in pursuit, kill and destroy Indians on the plains."

Driving the news: The site has acquired an additional 3,478 acres made possible through funding from the Land and Water Conservation Fund, according to the Department of the Interior.

The acquisition will allow the National Park Service, which oversees management of the site, to expand efforts to educate people on the Indigenous stories of the lands.

Haaland visited the site on Wednesday to make the announcement and participated in an event with leaders from the Northern Arapaho Tribe, the Northern Cheyenne Tribe and the Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes.

William Walksalong, the tribal administrator for the Northern Cheyenne Tribe, a descendant of the massacre’s victims and an advisor to the Sand Creek Massacre Foundation, said at the event Wednesday that "our people fought and ran for their lives on this sacred ground," per Colorado Newsline.

Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes Gov. Reggie Wassana noted that they were forced to relocate to western Oklahoma as a result. "We still think of Colorado as our home," Wassana said. "We didn’t give it up voluntarily."

What they're saying: "It is our solemn responsibility at the Department of the Interior, as caretakers of America’s national treasures, to tell the story of our nation. The events that took place here forever changed the course of the Northern Cheyenne, Northern Arapaho, and Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes," Haaland said in a statement. 

"We will never forget the hundreds of lives that were brutally taken here — men, women and children murdered in an unprovoked attack. Stories like the Sand Creek Massacre are not easy to tell but it is my duty — our duty — to ensure that they are told. This story is part of America’s story."

The newly acquired parcels "have significant archaeological remains of the massacre, including evidence of the village where Cheyenne and Arapaho families were camped, and an intact viewshed that is key to the historical integrity of the National Historic Site," added Janet Frederick, who serves as superintendent of the site.

The big picture: The Sand Creek Massacre National Historic Site was established in 2007; much of the land is considered sacred by the Northern and Southern Cheyenne and Arapaho Tribes.

Worth noting: Colorado Gov. Jared Polis (D) signed an executive order last August rescinding Evans' proclamation, which Polis said "shamefully targeted and endangered the lives" of Indigenous people.

Haaland announces expansion of historic site marking Native American massacre

The Sand Creek Massacre National Historic Site commemorates the 230 Native Americans slaughtered by U.S. troops in 1864.

Tribal members pray outside a tepee for the victims of the 1864 Sand Creek massacre. Photo: Hyoung Chang/The Denver Post via Getty Images

Department of The Interior (DOI)

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

Human-caused climate change made the drought conditions that gripped large portions of the Northern Hemisphere this past summer far more likely to occur, a new study found. 

Why it matters: The study, published Wednesday, found human-caused global warming dramatically upped the odds of drought throughout the hemisphere outside of the tropics — making them at least 20 times more likely compared to the preindustrial era. 

The Northern Hemisphere summer of 2022 brought extreme heat and drought to Europe, China and North America. 

Drought conditions tied to the heat caused water shortages in the Western U.S., led to rivers running critically low in countries like Germany, and caused food prices to increase. 

The drought conditions harmed agricultural output at the same time as unrelated factors, such as the war in Ukraine, were exerting upward pressure on food prices. 

The big picture: This past summer featured cascading drought events around the Northern Hemisphere.  Hit especially hard were the Western and Central U.S., Western Europe and large swaths of China. 

The new study, published using peer-reviewed methods by the 21 members of the World Weather Attribution group, a global collective of researchers that examine the ties between extreme weather events and human-caused climate change, focused on changes in soil moisture as a key drought metric. 

Warmer temperatures are the primary cause of the increase in drought likelihood, the study finds, since hotter weather increases evaporation from soils and plants. 

The new research estimates that human-caused climate change made soil moisture drought conditions much more likely, by about a factor of 20, though the study's authors cautioned that there is a significant amount of uncertainty associated with that specific number.

 "Our analysis shows that last summer's severe drought conditions across large parts of the Northern Hemisphere were fueled by human-induced climate change," said Dominik Schumacher, of ETH Zurich, in a statement. "With further global warming we can expect stronger and more frequent summer droughts in the future."

What they did: The researchers looked at soil moisture levels during June, July and August for both the top few inches of soil, and the top 1 meter, or 39 inches, which is known as the root zone. 

This is the depth of soil that most plants draw water from, so dry soils there can have a particularly large effect on agriculture. 

Zoom in: Hemisphere-wide, the study found human-caused climate change made surface-level drought at least 5 times more likely to occur compared to a climate without added amounts of greenhouse gases. Root zone drought had the 20-fold increase, however. 

The international team of researchers also focused on Western and Central Europe, which saw an especially severe drought from the Atlantic to the eastern Black Sea. 

The study found that for this region, climate change made surface drought up to 6 times more likely to occur, while root zone drought, which is also known as agricultural and ecological drought, was 3 to 4 times more likely. 

Yes, but: The reduced spike in the odds of regional drought compared to hemisphere-wide conditions can be traced to the fact that it tends to be easier for researchers to tease out broad trends when looking at bigger regions, with more natural climate variability entering the picture when they zoom in on a specific area. 

What they're saying: "There's absolutely no doubt that climate change did play a big role here," said study coauthor Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, in a press call Wednesday. 

"The exact quantification of that role is more uncertain for soil moisture than, for example, when we look at heavy precipitation," she said.

The bottom line: The agricultural drought seen around the Northern Hemisphere this summer can now be expected to occur once every 20 years, as opposed to about once every 400 years in the preindustrial era. 

Go deeper: America's extreme summer weather of 2022, in maps

Climate change fingerprints found on this summer's scorching droughts

Global warming made drought conditions that gripped much of the Northern Hemisphere  20 times more likely, study finds.

Illustration of a fingerprint pattern made from cracks in dry ground

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

World

Axios Sneak Peek

President Biden has tried to convince the Saudis to pump more oil with honey. Now he's trying vinegar. 

Why it matters: With a new warning that the White House might support legislation targeting OPEC+ in Congress, Biden crossed a symbolic threshold — and sent a clear signal to the Saudis that he’s prepared to escalate. 

For some Democrats, he needs to go further: "President Biden ... should call the King himself," Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) told Axios. "He should say you have five days to reverse your decision. If not, I am going to work with Congress to pass a ban on supplying air parts to your Air Force.

"The American people have had enough. We will not be bullied by a third-rate power that is committing human rights atrocities."

Between the lines: Biden is now at odds with the two entities — Big Oil companies and Big Oil countries — that have the power to solve his most pressing domestic political problem: rising prices at the pump. 

Biden has consistently blamed oil and gas companies for high prices and used a visit to FEMA headquarters last week to revive his warning: "Do not — do not — do not use this storm [Hurricane Ian] as an excuse to raise gasoline prices or gouge the American public," he said. 

Driving the news: Administration officials were scrambling over the weekend with a last-minute lobbying effort to dissuade OPEC+ from lowering its production targets, reportedly describing the prospect as a "total disaster."

That effort failed and OPEC+ on Wednesday announced its 2 million barrels a day cut, scheduled for next month. 

The White House fired back with a double-barreled shot from Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, and Brian Deese, the director of the National Economic Council. 

Their joint statement was designed to suggest the White House would reverse course and support bipartisan legislation — so-called NOPEC — that would make the oil-producing cartel legally liable for any price collusion.  

Behind the scenes: While some Democrats privately suspect Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of engineering the cut to hurt their party in November, White House officials don’t go as far.  

Two of Biden's most senior advisers were in Saudi Arabia just 10 days ago, in part to deal with potential oil cuts and energy security.

Many officials thought the trip had managed to open a new page with the Saudis, Axios' Barak Ravid notes.

What they're saying: Khalid Aljabri, a Saudi dissident, made a direct link between OPEC's move and the midterms. "This unprecedented cut is nothing short of a naked assault on democracy and election interference to harm Biden and the Democrats," he alleged.

"I think it’s time for a wholesale re-evaluation of the U.S. alliance with Saudi Arabia," Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a top critic of the Saudis, told CNBC on Tuesday.

The intrigue: The White House has other cards to play. But all of them are controversial.

A potential nuclear deal with Iran could bring more than a million barrels of oil a day onto international markets. 

The White House hinted Wednesday they reserve the right to release more oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve — beyond the 10 million barrels in the November release it has already announced. Republicans will howl, but the president's authority is clear. 

The Biden administration can also turn to Venezuela. The Wall Street Journal scooped Wednesday evening that Biden is preparing to scale down sanctions on the Maduro regime to allow Chevron to resume its activities.

The other side: Republicans are already using OPEC's cut to criticize Biden.

"Joe Biden caused this crisis with his destructive energy policies and foreign policies. I'm deeply disappointed by the Saudi decision and wish they would act more like an ally during current conditions, but this is Joe Biden's fault," Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told Axios.

Go deeper: What OPEC's 2 million-barrel cut could mean for U.S. gas prices

Biden's new Saudi strategy

Biden sent a clear signal to the Saudis that he’s prepared to escalate after OPEC's production cut.

President Biden fist-bumps with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on July 15. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Saudi Arabia

OPEC+ is jolting oil markets this week with plans to cut output — and the ripples could reach all the way to the U.S. midterm elections.

Driving the news: The coalition of OPEC, Russia and allied producers on Wednesday announced cuts of 2 million barrels per day in Vienna starting in November 2022. 

It's looking to prop up prices that have fallen greatly since early June when Brent crude was above $120 per barrel — and has already succeeded despite bearish economic signs.

Word of the cuts in the tight global market sent oil prices back upward this week, with Brent crude rising several dollars to roughly $93 Wednesday morning.

Why it matters: The crude revival — if it persists — will put fresh upward pressure on U.S. gasoline prices, which have already inched back up lately after months of big declines.

The ongoing Saudi-Russian cooperation despite Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine is also the latest sign of Riyadh's strained relations with the White House.

Threat level: U.S. officials "are reportedly working around the clock to stave off a big cut, appealing to countries that it maintains strong defense and strategic ties," RBC Capital Markets said in a note. (CNN has more.)

What they're saying: "The President is disappointed by the shortsighted decision by OPEC+ to cut production quotas while the global economy is dealing with the continued negative impact of Putin’s invasion of Ukraine," National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and National Economic Council director Brian Deese said in a statement.

"At a time when maintaining a global supply of energy is of paramount importance, this decision will have the most negative impact on lower- and middle-income countries that are already reeling from elevated energy prices," they added.

The Department of Energy will deliver another 10 million barrels into the market next month through the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, they said.

The big picture: Rice University's Jim Krane tells Axios the likely cuts reflect the persistence of Saudi-Russia market cooperation that began a half-decade ago in response to the rise of U.S. shale production.

"Putin has been able to insert himself in what was a pretty strong relationship between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and he's destabilizing that relationship right now," said Krane, a fellow with the school's Baker Institute for Public Policy.

The intrigue: The White House had been aggressively touting the pump price relief for weeks, but a reversal could revive political jeopardy in the upcoming election.

“Higher prices are bad news for Democrats,” ClearView Energy Partners' Kevin Book tells Bloomberg.

What we're watching: How the market responds after the announcement.

Oil analyst Ellen Wald's latest column notes more price increases are "likely to be tempered" by concerns that a global recession will hurt demand. 

GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan tells Axios the U.S. gasoline price trajectory will differ regionally, with prices in the Gulf Coast, Southeast, Northeast and East Coast set to rise.

But recent refinery problems and maintenance in the Great Lakes area and West Coast have already bolstered prices there.

"Once those issues are addressed, the decreases will likely overpower oil prices rising," De Haan said, but notes the OPEC+ cut means the amount they decline again will be smaller.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has limited options to respond to the OPEC+ cut.

The White House is already deep into a historically large Strategic Petroleum Reserve release.

Production growth, meanwhile, has stalled for now despite attractive prices as companies deal with a mix of supply chain and labor challenges, investor pressure for discipline and more.

Yes, but: "Tighter crude oil markets ... could give the White House further impetus to consider limitations on refined products exports as a brake on rising pump prices," ClearView Energy Partners said in a note Wednesday morning.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with a statement from the White House and details of OPEC's planned production cuts. 

What OPEC's 2 million-barrel cut could mean for U.S. gas prices

OPEC and Russia are looking to prop up prices that have fallen greatly since early June.

Illustration of a tiny oil barrel held between a person's fingers. 

OPEC

Axios Pro Rata

Form Energy, a Massachusetts-based developer of long duration battery storage using iron, raised $450 million in Series E funding led by TPG Rise.

Why it marters: Long duration storage — a battery that can last for days or even weeks, instead of hours — is key to decarbonizing the electric grid, because it supports inherently intermittent renewables like wind and solar. Particularly at utility scale.

Other investors include GIC, CPP Investments, ArcelorMittal and Breakthrough Energy Ventures. The company previously raised over $350 million, including in mid-2021 at a $1.2 billion valuation.

The bottom line: Iron is hardly the first material that comes to mind when thinking about energy innovation, but Form believes its iron rusting and de-rusting method will help it avoid the supply bottlenecks and high costs associated with more traditional battery materials like lithium.

Form Energy raises $450 million to extend battery storage

Long duration storage is key to decarbonizing the electric grid.

Illustration of a mining cart full of batteries.

Batteries

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Axios What's Next

People who buy electric vehicles (EVs) really like them, according to U.S. vehicle registration data, which shows most EV owners tend to buy an EV for their next car, too. 

Why it matters: The data reveals a growing embrace of electric cars as automakers and the federal government pour billions of dollars into EV and battery production.

What's happening: Axios is tracking the historic shift away from gasoline by examining vehicle registration data from S&P Global Mobility. Here's a peek at the latest data: 

Roughly two-thirds (65.3%) of EV-owning households that bought a new car in 2022 got another electric. 

That's up sharply from the second quarter of 2021, when about 48% of EV-owning households in the market for a new car bought another EV.

The trend has been consistent throughout 2022, notes Tom Libby, associate director of industry analysis at S&P Global Mobility. 

"To me, that's a very positive sign about the future of EVs," he tells Axios. 

The big picture: The U.S. lags China and Europe when it comes to EV adoption, but the market is clearly shifting.

Consumers have lots of options to choose from these days, and more affordable models are on the way. 

General Motors, for example, is introducing an electric version of its top-selling Chevrolet Equinox SUV with a roughly $30,000 base price.

Every segment of the vehicle market is going electric: cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and delivery vans.

The number of EV models available in the U.S. jumped from 27 in July 2021 to 45 a year later. That number is expected to reach almost 150 by 2025, per S&P Global Mobility. 

Where it stands: Tesla's Model Y and Model 3 continue to dominate. Those two models alone accounted for 51% of all new EV registrations in July (the latest available month).

And Tesla brand loyalty is through the roof, notes Libby — 91% of Tesla owners who bought another EV opted for another Tesla.

"That's an amazing statistic," says Libby. "Not only are they selling a lot, they’re keeping the owners. That’s a very powerful combination."

Yes, but: As rivals introduce new models, Tesla's U.S. market share will inevitably shrink as the overall pie grows. In fact, that's already happening. 

Tesla had 81% of the EV market at the beginning of 2019; today it has less than 60%.

Tesla's third-quarter deliveries fell short of expectations due to what the company blamed on logistics challenges, but some investors are worried about slowing demand.

Between the lines: EVs accounted for 5.8% of all new cars registered nationally in July, up from 3.4% a year ago. 

California remains the leading U.S. electric car market. In San Francisco, EVs accounted for a third of all July registrations.

Texas is also seeing strong EV growth in places like Austin and Dallas, where EVs accounted for 9.6% and 8.6% of July new car registrations, respectively.

Most electric car buyers don't switch back to gas

When it's time to buy a new car, most existing EV owners go for another electric

Illustration of a heart-shaped EV charging cable 

Affordable housing in the U.S. typically diminishes after a disaster, and experts expect parts of southwest Florida will see the same following Hurricane Ian.

The big picture: It's a pattern that exacerbates inequities in relief and recovery efforts — and leaves thousands with nowhere to go. 

“The quantity of affordable housing shrinks after every type of disaster,” Michelle Meyer, disaster recovery researcher and director of Texas A&M’s Hazard Reduction and Recovery Center, told Axios. 

This applies to major disaster events — like Hurricanes Katrina, Florence and Ida — and smaller ones, like the 2013 fertilizer plant explosion in West, Texas. 

In all of these cases, people were left unhoused, rental prices spiked in response to a surge in demand and many were forced to permanently relocate in order to afford to live. 

A number of factors contribute to the reduction in affordable housing — defined as costing 30% or less of a household’s income — after a disaster.

For one, affordable housing units are largely built in more vulnerable areas, like floodplains, and at a lower quality. That means they’re more likely to suffer damage from disasters, like more powerful and rapidly strengthening hurricanes. 

Rental units, which are the slowest to rebuild post-disaster, also make up a significant portion of affordable housing.

Public housing and subsidized housing usually take years to recover, largely because of timelines in long-term federal funding distribution. 

And mobile homes are exceedingly vulnerable to damage from disasters. 

Along Florida's southwest coast, parts of which experienced catastrophic damage from Ian, affordable housing options were already scarce — and are now likely to diminish further in the wake of the storm. 

The post-storm affordable housing crisis

Affordable housing in the U.S. diminishes after a disaster. Here's what to expect after Ian.

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