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Relative quiet from the White House and repeated GOP attacks on President Biden's energy record are hiding record levels of American oil production.

Why it matters: Don't expect public victory laps from Biden as he navigates the tricky politics around energy and climate change.

What's happening: U.S. oil production, the world's highest, is over 13.2 million barrels per day, nudging past levels seen just before COVID crushed demand and prices.

Zoom in: This petro-power — and how to talk about it — is a delicate balance for a White House that has made climate change an unprecedented policy priority.

Every president, Biden included, tries to avoid backlash over gas prices.

Yet young activists want stronger moves against fossil fuels, despite steps like limiting offshore leasing.

They've been dismayed at some decisions, such as approving a big ConocoPhillips drilling project in Alaska.

The big picture: Biden hasn't played up U.S. oil strength in his re-election pitch. But he does like promoting lower gas prices this supply increase helps enable.

A campaign official said that's woven into an economic message that includes efforts like addressing insulin prices. "It fits under that broader umbrella."

But Biden's campaign response team has cited U.S. output to parry GOP attacks on his energy record, the official said.

Between the lines: This adds up to a rather muted posture on oil output — a topic with political crosscurrents heading into 2024.

Some moderate Democrats want Biden to openly take credit for record production.

"Gas prices have been high — and the Biden Administration has done a huge amount to lower them, including upping drilling in the U.S.," said Josh Freed, who runs the climate and energy program at the centrist Democratic group Third Way.

"That's only half the battle. The President should take credit for this and he shouldn't be shy about it. It helps American families," Freed adds.

The intrigue: Biden's GOP and industry critics say the records come despite White House policies they call a drag on U.S. companies.

Biden's critics want less regulation and stronger support for drilling on federal lands.

Much of the oil and gas boom has unfolded on private or state lands, notably the prolific Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico.

What they're saying: "Companies are producing [record amounts of oil] this month due to investment decisions, permitting and energy development innovations that were made several years ago — even as far back as the Bush and Obama administrations for offshore development," American Petroleum Institute spokesperson Megan Bloomgren said.

How it works: Forces pushing U.S. output upward include...

Attractive prices in recent years provide an incentive to drill more, although public firms are steering a lot of money into dividends and buybacks. Cost pressures have eased somewhat, too.

Producers at prolific U.S. shale basins are improving efficiency and drilling longer lateral wells.

Saudi Arabia and allied producers have held back some production as OPEC looks to prop up prices, leaving a market opening.

What we're watching: COP28, the big UN climate summit unfolding in Dubai.

In a chat with The Financial Times, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry rejected the suggestion that record U.S. oil and natural gas production "made the US position...more difficult in urging other countries to back an agreement for the phaseout of fossil fuels."

What they're saying: "President Biden has led and delivered on the most ambitious climate agenda in history, restoring America's climate leadership at home and abroad," White House spokesperson Angelo Fernández Hernández said in a statement.

"The President is implementing the largest investment in climate ever, putting the United States on a path to cut climate pollution in half by 2030."

The bottom line: The politics of oil and gas were dicey in 2020, and they remain so in 2023.

Editor's note: This article has been updated with a quote on oil production timelines.

Biden struggles to embrace America's quiet oil boom

Biden is unlikely to make public victory laps as he navigates the tricky politics around energy and climate change.

Oil production

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DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Former Vice President Al Gore railed against COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber on Tuesday after a leaked video showed the UAE climate envoy telling former Republic of Ireland President Mary Robinson there's "no science" behind the push to phase out fossil fuels. 

What he's saying: "Do not ever try to mansplain to Mary Robinson — it doesn't work," Gore said at an Axios event on the sidelines of COP28 in Dubai.

Gore called Al-Jaber, who is also the CEO of state oil firm ADNOC, a "very nice ... and very smart" person, but criticized the UAE's decision to name him the leader of COP28.

"I just think [the decision is] disrespectful of the world public to undermine the trust that people ought to be able to have in the integrity of this process," he said.

Gore added that he finds it "abusive of public trust" that "the person in charge of organizing this entire exercise in a way that assists the global community in safeguarding humanity's future by reducing the spewing of all this heat-trapping gas into the sky would be the same person who is assiduously preparing one of the most aggressive expansions of more and more fossil fuel production."

The big picture: Al-Jaber has drawn criticism — including from Gore — since being named the leader of the COP28 talks. 

But that criticism was amplified earlier this week after The Guardian published a leaked video of al-Jaber making the comments to Robinson, a long-time climate activist, at the SHE Changes Climate online event. 

Joyce Kimutai, the principal meteorologist and climate scientist at the Kenya Meteorology Department, referred to the controversy and addressed political leaders' lack of action more generally during a separate interview at Tuesday's Axios event in Dubai. 

"I wish when they say they understood the science, they meant it," Kimutai told Axios. "To me, there's been more talk than action," she said. 

"[I]t's just time that we phase out fossil fuels," she added. "That is my honest opinion as a scientist. It may not be politically correct, but I don't think we need political correctness now because people are really, really suffering." 

Al-Jaber said at a press conference this week that he has "incredible respect for Mary Robinson and have a great deal of respect for everything she has been able to accomplish and achieve over the years."

"In fact, I was very honored to receive her invitation to participate and speak in a discussion around climate and gender," he added.

Zoom in: Speaking to Axios, Gore also provided more details on his call to reform the COP process.

He explained that the consensus-based approach gives outsized influence to major oil and gas-producing countries that favor a slower transition to renewables. He specifically pointed to Saudi Arabia, which has a long history of objecting to more aggressive COP decisions. 

What to watch: Gore said he plans to make a push for changes, which would involve altering the COP rules governing how these meetings are run.

"I'm hoping [at the end of COP28] there is enough outrage around the world at the obscene structure" of the conference's decision-making process "with the reported use of the preparatory meetings to sell more oil and gas," Gore said. 

He was referring to a BBC and Centre for Climate Reporting report, published last week, that alleged the UAE planned to discuss striking oil and gas deals with other governments at the climate summit. Al-Jaber has rejected the allegation as "false" and called it "an attempt to undermine" his work.

FEMA chief "very concerned" about disinformation from U.S. adversaries after disasters

Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk tells Axios the Biden administration takes industry feedback "incredibly seriously" 

Editor's note: This story has been updated with al-Jaber's comments. 

Gore rails against COP28 president: Don't "try to mansplain" climate activist Robinson

"It doesn't work," Gore said at an Axios event in Dubai.

Al Gore

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

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President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

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Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk told Axios the Biden administration takes industry feedback "incredibly seriously" after a reported leak of draft rules for hydrogen tax credits.

Why it matters: The highly anticipated guidance is the subject of an intense lobbying fight between industry and environmental groups.

Driving the news: Bloomberg and Politico reported that the draft rules include guardrails to ensure that hydrogen production that qualifies for the credit is produced with newly constructed renewable energy.

"I'm incredibly disappointed that someone leaked this document," Turk told Axios on the sidelines of COP28 in Dubai.

"I can't comment on this document, but we're still working to deliberate and put the final package together," he said during an event in Dubai with Axios' Niala Boodhoo.

Context: The Inflation Reduction Act created the incentive for the production of "clean" hydrogen, which can be used as a low-carbon fuel for industry, power generation and transportation.

The guidance isn't final yet, but there are divides about what, exactly, counts as "clean."

Environmentalists want hydrogen production facilities that qualify for the credit to use new sources of carbon-free energy to power their electrolyzers — the complex systems that make hydrogen from water — so they don't drain the renewables already on the grid.

Industry groups, meanwhile, generally want a more lenient interpretation to fuel growth in the industry.

"If true, the Biden Administration's proposed strategy for implementing these provisions will fail to get this new industry off the ground," American Clean Power Association CEO Jason Grumet said in a statement.

What they're saying: Turk told Axios that "it is a big deal to get this right."

"We take this feedback incredibly seriously and we try to approach this with some humility," he said.

"We've got a lot of smart people at the Department of Energy, hydrogen experts who have literally been working in this industry for decades. But we have to be humble."

The Treasury Department declined to comment.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to add omitted word in American Clean Power Association's name.

Biden reportedly seeks guardrails for hydrogen

Deputy Energy Secretary David Turk told Axios the administration takes industry feedback "incredibly seriously."

David Turk talks to Niala Boodhoo at an Axios panel in Dubai

Photo: Arthur Abraham/Hyku D Photography for Axios

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Shareholders in Origin Energy, one of Australia's largest power producers, have rejected a A$15 billion takeover offer from Canadian investment giant Brookfield.

Why it matters: This is the second major energy deal loss in Australia for Brookfield, which just announced participation in a $30 billion climate fund launched by United Arab Emirates.

In 2022, Brookfield was rebuffed in its efforts to buy AGL Energy.

Details: Around 69% of Origin shares were voted in favor of the takeover, which required 75% approval. 

Among the holdouts was Origin's largest shareholder, pension system AustralianSuper.

Go deeper, via the WSJ: "At the heart of the battle for control of Origin is a difference of opinion in the value that can be generated from Australia's fourth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases shifting away from coal."

Brookfield loses another giant Australian energy deal

Origin Energy shareholders didn't support the A$15 billion takeover offer.

Photo: Carla Gottgens/Bloomberg via Getty Images.

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Global fossil CO2 emissions, by source

Data: Global Carbon Project; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

Taken together, three new analyses highlight the relentless march of climate change — and what's in store without much stronger policies.

Driving the news: The Global Carbon Project (GCP) estimates fossil-related carbon dioxide emissions rose another 1.1% to a new record.

That's despite surging renewables, and falling emissions in developed economies like the U.S. and EU, the researchers found. Axios' Rebecca Falconer has more.

And a World Meteorological Organization report concludes the rate of climate change "surged alarmingly" from 2011-2020.

What they found: Not only was it the warmest decade on record, but glacier and sea ice loss were "unprecedented," the UN weather agency said.

Glaciers thinned by roughly 1 meter per year, while more countries reported record high temperatures than in any other decade.

Zoom in: "The Antarctic continental ice sheet lost nearly 75% more ice between 2011-2020 than it did in 2001-2010," a WMO summary notes, calling this "ominous" for sea-level rise.

What's next: Climate Action Tracker projects warming sailing dangerously past Paris targets, even if nations implement their current pledges.

Their latest estimate ticked up slightly, to 2.5°C above preindustrial levels by 2100, thanks to increasing emissions in countries with "weak" targets.

It's worse when you look at real-world actions based on current policies, which bring an estimate of 2.7°C — no improvement from their 2021 estimate. 

Yes, but: Researchers see some bright spots. 

GCP sees China's emissions rising 4% this year (not good!), but strong renewables deployment is preventing even higher growth.

U.S. coal emissions are falling sharply, while EU fossil emissions are down  7.4% this year.

What we're watching: Who knows whether this grim choose-your-own-adventure of threat metrics will influence COP28 negotiations.

These reports certainly underscore the urgency of the need for very steep emissions cuts, which are nowhere in evidence yet. 

But government policies and investments are motivated by all kinds of considerations and national interests. And scary data is nothing new.

The bottom line: The window to meet Paris goals is shutting fast.

The University of Exeter's Pierre Friedlingstein, a GCP co-author, said in a statement that "it now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5°C target."

"Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree [to] rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2°C target alive."

Sober climate data shows why COP28 matters

The window to meet Paris climate goals is shutting fast.

COP28

Illustration of two hands playing tug of war with an image of a factory and pollution in the background.

As world leaders gather for the COP28 climate summit in Dubai, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are soaring to record levels.

The big picture: That's according to new Global Carbon Project, which estimates fossil carbon dioxide emissions of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2023 — 1.1% more than last year, driven in large part by China and India emitting more CO2 as they use large amounts of coal.

Why it matters: It "now looks inevitable we will overshoot" the Paris Agreement's ambitious target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F) above preindustrial levels, said University of Exeter professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the research, in a statement accompanying the report involving over 90 educational institutions and published Tuesday.

"Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2°C target alive."

By the numbers: The GCP projects emissions rises of 1.1% from coal, 1.5% from oil and 0.5% from gas for 2023.

Fossil-related emissions are expected to fall 7.4% in the European Union and 3% in the U.S. as the adoption of renewable energy surges, but they're set to rise 8.2% in India and 4% in China.

Meanwhile, international aviation is projected to be up 28% compared to 2022 as the industry continues to recover from pandemic lows.

Of note: The burning of fossil fuels that cause toxic air pollution kills some 11,800 people in the U.S., the world's second-largest emitter of CO2, and about 1.2 million globally every year, according to a new report, published in the medical journal The Lancet Tuesday.

State of play: The U.N. climate science panel found in a March report that in order to limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions need to be cut steeply by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050.

United Nations Secretary General António Guterres emphasized at COP28 on Friday the need to phase out fossil fuels. A U.N. report last month recommended a "near total phase-out" of coal output by 2040 and a 75% drop in oil and gas production and use by 2050 compared with 2020 levels.

Officials in China and India, the world's largest and third-largest emitters, oppose fossil fuel "phase out" language.

India's Power and Renewable Energy minister R.K. Singh has called on wealthier nations to invest in more energy storage, saying: "We cannot phase out fossil fuels unless we have nuclear or until storage becomes viable. We cannot have energy transition until storage is viable."

What we're watching: A report from the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air found last month that China's greenhouse emissions are set to fall and "could be facing structural decline" from next year "due to record growth in the installation of new low-carbon energy sources."

The world is nearing a peak in fossil fuel power production: study

Kerry: Coal power plants shouldn't be "permitted anywhere in the world"

Curbing powerful methane emissions is big focus at COP28 climate summit

Editor's note: This article has been updated with comment from India's Power and Renewable Energy minister R.K. Singh and further context.

Report: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels to hit new highs

Report finds that as emissions in the U.S. and EU fall, China and India are propeling record surge.