Axios Markets

June 18, 2026
πͺπ» Thursday. Stock futures are up this morning, as markets absorb the news that the U.S. and Iran signed a deal.
- That's after stocks slumped and bond yields rose on the hawkish debut of Federal Reserve chairman Kevin Warsh yesterday (more on that below). Even SpaceX lost its mojo.
Still, the rocket company's rally has been a thing of beauty for Wall Street. So today, we look at the technical savvy that the company β and its bankers β used to jiu-jitsu the forces of supply and demand and support the company's shares as its IPO launched.
ποΈ U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow for the Juneteenth holiday, so we will be back in your inboxes on Monday.
There's still today. Let's get into it. All in 1,225 words, a 4.5-minute read.
1 big thing: Elon Musk, financial engineer
We can't speak for the rockets, but the SpaceX IPO has been a masterpiece of engineering.
Why it matters: The offering was structured in a way that deftly manages the mechanisms of supply and demand that markets rely on to determine a company's true value.
Driving the news: Despite suffering its first down day yesterday, SpaceX shares remain up more than 40% from their offering price of $135 a share, a run-up that has added some $750 billion to the company's market value, which was $2.53 trillion at yesterday's close.
Between the lines: The forces of supply and demand aren't produced by immutable laws of nature. Rules and regulations have a lot to do with how markets work. And bankers, book runners and executives can devise all sorts of clever ways to shape and channel these forces in ways they prefer β at least in the short run.
How it works: Here are some of the technical elements known to influence stock prices that featured prominently in the IPO.
- A small float. SpaceX sold only about 639 million of 13.18 billion SpaceX shares in existence, just under 5%. That's a tiny float β or percentage of stock that's actually available to trade. The typical public float of an IPO last year was 14.5%. This can result in higher prices because of...
- Constraints on short sellers. Because short sellers need to first borrow a stock and pay for it before selling it short, the smaller supply of shares that can be traded makes it more expensive and less attractive to "short" a stock β or bet that it will fall in value. For decades, academics and market watchers have believed that such constraints on bearish traders keep their views from influencing prices, which can result in market overvaluation. That's similar to...
- Giant insider holdings. Take Elon Musk, who owns upward of 40% of the stock and as the world's first trillionaire has little reason to sell very much of it.
- Large holdings by retail traders. SpaceX allocated more than the typical amount of stock to small investors. And retail investors are particularly drawn to the kind of futuristic narratives that Musk specializes in β resulting in high valuations.
Structurally, all of the aforementioned features of the SpaceX offering tend to help support prices β barring any giant change.
Yes, but: There's another feature of this IPO to consider. That is the staggered end of the so-called lockup, which has kept pre-IPO holders of the stock from selling so far.
- When these lockups expire, it could suddenly mean a lot more shares hit the market.
The big picture: Lockup expiration has been the source of a few well-known stock market bludgeonings over the years.
- Who among us doesn't remember the Beyond Meat beatdown of 2019? Or the great Uber unloading a few months later that year?
- Going back even further, some researchers think lockup expirations might have been part of the trigger that popped the dot-com bubble.
What's next: The first of these SpaceX lockups expires after SpaceX reports earnings for the quarter that ends June 30, when as many as 912 million shares β over 40% more shares than were sold during last week's offering β could hit the market.
- And here's the final bit of financial engineering that makes a market hack's heart swell.
- In the run-up to its offering, SpaceX reportedly sought out rule changes to allow it to be included in key indexes that serve as the basis for index funds.
- Nasdaq recently made some changes to its Nasdaq-100 large-cap tech index, which serves as the basis for popular investor vehicles like Invesco's QQQ tech ETF. Russell also made changes.
The bottom line: That means that SpaceX could be added to that key Nasdaq index β essentially forcing passive investors to buy and hold the shares β just before a big slug of freshly unlocked equity hits the market with the potential to steamroll the stock.
- Now that's thinking of everything.
2. 1st-day Warsh trade


Stocks fell and bond yields spiked on Warsh's policy committee debut yesterday afternoon.
Why it matters: Investors read the vibe as surprisingly hawkish β the yield on the two-year Treasury note rose after the Fed released its policy statement at 2pm, a sign that the market is pricing in rate hikes.
- The yield on the two-year is now at its highest in a year.
- The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both slumped.
Between the lines: President Trump wanted someone at the helm who would cut rates, but inflationary pressures are pushing the Fed in a different direction.
The bottom line: Sure, AI has powered the stock market to new heights this year, but don't sleep on the power of interest rates to shake up stock dynamics.
3. Who runs the markets?
CME Group has named Lynne Fitzpatrick as its next CEO, the latest woman to nab a leading role atop a major financial exchange.
Why it matters: Women now run most of the country's financial plumbing βΒ surprising, given that the rest of the finance industry's leadership continues to be male-dominated.
Driving the news: Fitzpatrick, who is currently president and CFO of the derivatives exchange, takes over from Terry Duffy. He'll officially step down from CEO and into the chair role early next year.
The rest of the women leaders:
- Adena Friedman, Nasdaq's CEO, became the first woman to head a major global stock exchange when she took the role in 2017. (She became chair in 2023.)
- Lynn Martin, president of the NYSE since 2022.
- Martina Cheung, CEO of S&P Global.
- Fiona Bassett has been CEO of FTSE Russell since 2023.
Between the lines: Women now run the operational guts of the markets, but men are still mostly at the helm in banking, deal-making, trading and other highly lucrative parts of the finance industry.
Zoom in: The share of women in top roles at financial institutions β including commercial banks, central banks and major funds β hit 19% in 2026, per a report that looked at 335 organizations earlier this year.
The bottom line: CME's next CEO is a woman, and she'll be in good company.
ποΈ Save the date: What will it take to keep America's manufacturing sector competitive in a rapidly changing global economy? Join Axios Live on July 1 at 8am ET for a discussion with business and policy leaders shaping the future of U.S. manufacturing. Register here.
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Thanks to Jeffrey Cane for editing and Carlin Becker for copy editing this edition.
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