1 big thing: Why the climate bill's passage matters — and what's next

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2. Charted: The role of U.S. emissions

3. The climate bill's international ripple effect

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4. The Senate climate logjam eases

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5. Quote of the day

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🍩 Welcome back! This morning we're all about the action on Capitol Hill.

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Untangle the energy industry’s biggest news stories

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1 big thing: Climate-shaming celebrities

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Bonus: Zooming in on behavior and planes

2. Record melt in Svalbard spotlights warming

Satellite image of glaciers melting on Svalbard, Norway, in August 2022.

3. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on markets and business

4. What Kyrsten Sinema wants in the climate bill

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5. Record heat in August follows a record warm July

6. 🛢️Quote of the day

🚀 Off we go! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,242 words, 5 minutes. 

🎶 This week marks 40 years since Michael McDonald released "If That's What It Takes," which provides today's perfect intro tune... 

1 big thing: Scorching summer numbers

2. The coming scramble for clean energy workers

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3. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on finance: shale, solar, CO2

4. When the bill comes due for EV charging

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5. ⚡Quote of the day

☕ Good morning! Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,092 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🎶 With a h/t to Albumism, this week in 2000 De La Soul released "Art Official Intelligence: Mosaic Thump," which provides today's intro tune...

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1 big thing: Pushing carbon capture into the mainstream — finally

2. Climate votes loom as Sinema signals support

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3. First Look: EDF Action runs ads for climate bill

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4. Oil hits a milestone: under $90 again

5. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on tech finance

🍺 Heck yeah! Friday. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,256 words, 5 minutes. 

🚨Breaking: China said it's ending talks with the U.S. on climate change following House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Go deeper

🎶 At this moment in 1995, the great TLC ruled the Billboard Hot 100 with this week's final intro tune...

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1 big thing: Investors like the climate deal

2. Projecting electric car sales is getting trickier

3. Drought hits EU, U.K. amid another heat wave

Map showing drought severity across Europe, with red hues indicating the most severe conditions.

4. A big EV buy and more energy tech notes

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5. Ford's new solar power push

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🐪 Oh wow, Wednesday already. Today's newsletter, edited by Mickey Meece, has a Smart Brevity count of 1,207 words, 5 minutes. 

⛽ The average national gas price fell under $4 per gallon for the first time since March, per GasBuddy (or is about to, per AAA). Go deeper.

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Data: Energy Impact Partners; Chart: Kavya Beheraj/Axios

The early verdicts have arrived: Investors are confident the Democrats' climate deal will translate into expanded real-world deployment of low-carbon energy.

Driving the news: The movement of exchange-traded funds and individual companies in several segments of the energy sector tell a similar story.

The Climate Tech Index from the VC firm Energy Impact Partners tallies a basket of companies' performance against the wider market (though it's not an investment vehicle).

The index is both wide-ranging and combines new market entrants and more established players.

Zoom in: The Invesco Solar ETF is up 16% since the deal emerged in late July and passed the Senate over the weekend, while the iShares Global Clean Energy ETF is up 14%.

Companies like EVgo (charging), Sunrun (solar), and Orsted (wind), to name just a few, have all seen gains since the surprise revival of the bill that's heavy on expanded and extended tax breaks.

Yes, but: If the bill passes, a lot needs to happen before it translates into a deployment surge, given workforce challenges, project siting hurdles and more.

And the bill is unlikely to end volatility in the clean energy sector, where companies are grappling with input cost fluctuations and other variables.

"Republicans are expected to take back control of Congress this fall, so it’s important to remember that policy uncertainty contributes to their volatility and that’s unlikely to change over the next few years," DataTrek Research's Jessica Rabe tells Bloomberg.

What they're saying: The CEO of wind turbine maker Vestas said this morning that the bill is "very supportive of renewable energy in the United States over the next ten years," should it pass the House, which is expected to take up the bill on Friday, per Reuters.

A recent note from Goldman Sachs analysts said the legislation is bullish for utilities "as the wind, solar and storage tax credits would reduce the costs of building new renewables in the U.S."

On solar specifically, the bill's announcement was a "welcome surprise for investors who by that point had become less confident on climate-related policy support being passed this year," Goldman's note states.

Investors like the climate deal

Shares of clean energy companies and funds are up since the legislative deal was unveiled

Climate change

The early verdicts have arrived: Investors are confident the Democrats&#x27; climate deal will translate into expanded real-world deployment of low-carbon energy.Driving the news: The movement of exchange-traded funds and individual companies in several segments of the energy sector tell a similar story.

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

Data: Rystad Energy; Note: Includes battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles; Chart: Simran Parwani/Axios

The Capitol Hill energy deal creates headwinds and tailwinds for the growing adoption of electric cars in the U.S. — and analysts are just starting to grapple with the complexities.

Driving the news: The legislation greatly expands EV purchase subsidies but also ties them to strict sourcing requirements for battery materials.

The big picture: "The incentives will undoubtedly boost EV adoption and help consumers who have been priced out of purchasing an EV to date," Rystad analyst James Ley said in a note.

The firm finds that the expanded credits and recent EV announcements from automakers "significantly increase" the chances that U.S. sales follow the "high case" in the chart above.

Yes, but: Susan Zou, another Rystad analyst, notes the bill signals an effort to cut battery supply chain reliance on China, but adds that automakers will face challenges to comply with the minerals, processing and component rules. 

Price limits on vehicles eligible for credits will also exclude many models and, as Axios' Nathan Bomey reports, EV sticker prices are climbing.

Ford announced Tuesday that it's raising the price of the F-150 Lightning electric pickup by about $6,000 to $8,500, depending on the model, to a starting price of about $47,000 to $97,000.

The announcement follows recent EV price increases by several other brands, including Tesla, Rivian, Lucid and GMC. Go deeper.

What's next: In the near term, there's a potential dearth of eligible cars. Now I'll turn things over to Axios' Joann Muller, who reports...

If you're thinking of buying an electric car anytime soon, you'd better place your order before President Biden signs the Democrats' big climate, tax and health care package into law — which could happen as soon as this weekend.

Go deeper: If you want an electric car, buy one this week

Projecting electric car sales is getting trickier

Democrats' climate deal expands tax incentives but also creates new restrictions.

Electric vehicles

Chart of U.S. passenger EV sales forecast from 2017-2030

The Capitol Hill energy deal creates headwinds and tailwinds for the growing adoption of electric cars in the U.S. — and analysts are just starting to grapple with the complexities.Driving the news: The legislation greatly expands EV purchase subsidies but also ties them to strict sourcing requirements for battery materials.

The low-carbon energy growth envisioned in Democrats' climate bill will come with a big challenge: finding enough trained workers to support it.

Driving the news: The plan — if signed into law — would finance more renewable power, clean energy equipment manufacturing, installation of home heat pumps and efficiency upgrades, electric vehicles, hydrogen development and much more.

Why it matters: This kind of scale-up would boost demand for workers in industries that would receive new or expanded tax subsidies and other support.

Threat level: The Princeton-led REPEAT Project, in their analysis of new projects the bill would spur, cautions that the ability to hire and train a clean energy workforce is among the various "difficult to model" constraints that may limit growth rates.

Philip Jordan of BW Research, a firm that studies workforce trends, said labor shortages are already a problem in clean energy industries.

What's next: Solar Energy Industries Association Association (SEIA) president Abigail Ross Hopper said the group sees the solar and energy storage workforce quadrupling from its current level of slightly over 250,000.

"In this tight labor market, that's a challenge — figuring out where do we get these employees? How do we train them, ensuring that they reflect the diversity of our nation?" she said on a call with reporters Monday.

The big picture: The clean energy research firm Energy Innovation estimates that jobs related to the bill would grow a lot in coming years, reaching 1.5 million created in 2030.

University of Massachusetts researchers estimate the bill's mix of tax credits, grants, and loans — and the private sector capital they enable — will create an average of over 900,000 jobs annually over 10 years.  

Their study was commissioned by the BlueGreen Alliance, a coalition of unions and environmental groups.

What they're saying: Jordan, of BW Research, said the largest job gains will come in construction and installation of equipment like wind turbines, energy efficiency upgrades, transmission, battery storage, solar panels, and other areas.

"A lot of those are going to be unionized. And labor unions are actually quite good at rapidly meeting needs and expanding," said Jordan, a VP with the firm that studies energy workforce trends.

But he cautions: "We are going to be creating a challenge when there's lots of activity happening across lots of different types of infrastructure that need lots of the same types of workers." 

Zoom in: Hopper said one important provision in the bill is the larger tax credits available for projects that meet certain apprenticeship requirements.

She said they would give project developers incentives to train new workers.

Erika Symmonds, SEIA's VP for equity and workforce development, said that in places where the solar industry is already very active, there are "templates or partnerships with employers for training that we're going to need to multiply and replicate in other places."

She said coordination between government, employers, schools and others will be important.

The bill also contains workforce development provisions, such as funding for state programs to train home energy efficiency and electrification contractors.

What we're watching: How the new jobs are distributed, not just how many there are.

"There's going to need to be investments to make sure that we're not only creating the workforce that we need, but we're also really targeting investments in disadvantaged communities to make sure that opportunities are available," Jordan said.

The bill contains several provisions to address "environmental justice" — a term for addressing the greater environmental burdens that poor people and communities of color often face. 

One of the provisions would create tax credits aimed specifically at solar projects located in low-income communities.

The bottom line: "I'm cautiously optimistic that that the federal government and states and municipalities will plan accordingly for what's coming," Jordan said.

The coming scramble for clean energy workers

It would boost demand for workers in industries that would receive new support.

Energy

Senate energy bill could help U.S. carbon capture take flight

New analysis finds that the legislation is key to spurring commercial scale-up.

Annual carbon dioxide captured for transport and geologic storage

The Senate&#x27;s climate deal could bring scale-up of carbon capture in heavy industries and power after years of limited momentum and false dawns.Driving the news: It provides a long-term extension of time for projects to qualify for existing credits and expands their application and value.

Congress is poised to pass the most important climate bill in U.S. history, the first step in a years-long effort to transform the measure into a massive, real-world expansion of clean energy.

The big picture: If the House approves the Senate-passed bill unchanged, sending it to President Biden's desk, it has a plausible chance of slashing domestic emissions and resetting the dynamic in global climate talks.

Catch up fast: The Senate yesterday approved Democrats' energy, tax and health care plan on a party-line vote.

That means the bill just cleared its biggest hurdle — the same chamber where the last sweeping climate bill imploded in 2010. 

The measure is expected to pass the House and head for Biden's desk within days.

It would invest roughly $370 billion in renewables, electric vehicles, hydrogen, clean energy equipment manufacturing, home efficiency and other climate programs.

U.S. emissions may fall a lot. Energy analysts who favor strong climate action say the plan should bring the U.S. within shouting distance of Biden's pledge under the Paris agreement: cutting domestic greenhouse gas emissions in half compared to 2005 levels by 2030.

It could change the tenor of global climate talks. The likely enactment of  legislation to back up America's commitments would boost U.S. credibility to convince other countries to take actions of their own.

But it's not the be-all, end-all. The U.S. will still come up short of the 2030 Paris pledge without complementary executive, state and local policies, per analyses by the Rhodium Group, the Princeton-led REPEAT Project and others.

And more will be needed to put the country on a path to net-zero emissions by 2050, a key benchmark for limiting warming.

U.S. climate policy strongly favors carrots over sticks. The biggest climate provisions are major new or wider tax incentives for renewables developers, clean energy equipment makers, homeowners and more.

The separate bipartisan infrastructure law is also a cash infusion for programs on EV charging, transmission, and demonstrating emerging technologies.

Meanwhile, a clean power mandate for utilities couldn't get past Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), carbon pricing proposals have little traction, and a recent Supreme Court ruling will likely limit the breadth of executive regulations. 

However, the Biden administration is also looking to implement new regulations in areas like vehicle efficiency standards.

It's a complicated moment for activists. The bill mandates new oil-and-gas drilling auctions on federal lands and waters, despite Biden's campaign pledge to thwart new fossil fuel development in those areas.

That's giving activists heartache, even as most major environmental groups are supporting the overall bill as a pivotal moment in the U.S. fight against global warming.

It's complicated for the oil industry, too. Giants BP and Shell support the bill. But industry lobbying groups — the American Petroleum Institute and the American Exploration & Production Council — have criticized the corporate tax policies as a brake on investment.

The electric car incentives could be undermined. There would be expanded tax subsidies for buying EVs, but the bill would also require automakers to source battery components and raw materials domestically, or from countries that have free-trade deals with the U.S.

A key auto industry trade group said those sourcing rules will prevent use of the consumer incentives because so few cars will be eligible.

It's an acid test for carbon capture. If the sector — which has faced years of slow growth and setbacks — can't gain momentum with the expanded subsidies, it's not clear when it ever will.

Why the climate bill's Senate passage matters

If approved, it will be the largest U.S. climate legislation ever enacted.

Congress is poised to pass the most important climate bill in U.S. history, the first step in a years-long effort to transform the measure into a massive, real-world expansion of clean energy.The big picture: If the House approves the Senate-passed bill unchanged, sending it to President Biden&#x27;s desk, it has a plausible chance of slashing domestic emissions and resetting the dynamic in global climate talks.

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Stories

Investors like the climate deal

Projecting electric car sales is getting trickier

The coming scramble for clean energy workers

Why the climate bill's Senate passage matters

Senate energy bill could help U.S. carbon capture take flight

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