1 big thing: Canada's "hellish" wildfire season defies the calendar

Biden shows his cards on offshore drilling

2. Breaking: Biden shows his cards on offshore drilling

Illustration of a hand balancing an oil barrel. 

3. 🏃🏽‍♀️Catch up fast on policy: Critical minerals, Ford, EPA enforcement

4. ☀️ Number of the day: $3 billion

🍺 Made it! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,094 words, 4 minutes.

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🎶 This week in 1989, Tears for Fears released the album "The Seeds of Love," which provides today's intro tune...

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1 big thing: Politics help fuel state divergence on EVs

2. U.S. electric vehicles by the numbers

3. A warning from Antarctic sea ice

4. One AI thing: Microsoft's nuclear power play

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5. How satellites are changing the fight against deforestation

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6. 🔋 Quoted

🤯 Cars, politics, ice, AI, space...there's a lot to talk about, but we've got a Smart Brevity count of just 1,251 words, 4.5 minutes. 

🎶 At this moment in 2006, Justin Timberlake ruled the Billboard Hot 100 with a track that defines this newsletter's goal and is today's intro tune... 

1 big thing: China says no fossil fuel "phaseout" at COP28

Photo illustration of Xie Zhenhua over a background of a petrochemical plant and oil refinery.

2. Big this week: elusive "net-zero" path and more on our radar 

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Global climate vaults into even rarer territory, with more to come

3. Global climate heads into even rarer territory

4. 🖥️ On my screen: Exploration spending and hydrogen

Illustration of a one hundred dollar bill with a barrel of oil in place of Franklin.

5. 🔋 Number of the day: 15 storage projects

1 fun thing: Computer model edition

☕ Good morning! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,250 words, 4.5 minutes. It's Yom Kippur. Wishing an easy fast to those who are observing.

🗓️ Join Axios New Orleans reporters at noon CT tomorrow for an event on modernizing the power grid, featuring New Orleans City Council President JP Morrell. Register to attend virtually or in person.

🎶 At this moment in 1985, Dire Straits were No. 1 on Billboard's album charts with "Brothers in Arms," which provides today's overlooked intro tune...

1 big thing: IEA says 1.5-degree path is narrower but doable

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2. Bonus: Charting the decline in fossil fuel energy sources

3. Ford leaves 'em guessing as it pauses battery plant

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4. China's World Bank equivalent steps up climate funding

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5. Feds offer millions for sustainable fuel rollout

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6. 💬 Quoted

🚀 We're off! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,323 words, 5 minutes. 

🛢️Situational awareness: A federal appeals court delayed this week's Gulf of Mexico lease sale to Nov. 8, but it upheld a lower court order blocking the Interior Department's new environmental restrictions and acreage withdrawals. Bloomberg has more.

🎹 This week in 1976, Stevie Wonder released the masterpiece "Songs In The Key Of Life," which provides today's intro tune...

1 big thing: Oil spikes as political season heats up

Illustration of an oil barrel spilling oil, forming an erratic line chart. 

2. U.S. oil execs see robust long-term demand

3. Catch up fast on policy: SEC rule and shutdown impacts

4. TotalEnergies' plan captures Big Oil's vibe

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5. Extreme weather pushes insurance costs upward

5. Bonus: White House unveils climate resilience efforts

6. ⚛️ Number of the day: 2030

💥 Let's do this! Today's newsletter has a Smart Brevity count of 1,215 words, 4.5 minutes.

👀 Breaking Thursday: Saudi Aramco is making what it calls its first international LNG investment in a bet on rising demand for the fuel.

It's buying a $500 million stake in MidOcean Energy, which is acquiring interests in four Australian LNG projects. 

🎶 This week marks 35 years since Tracy Chapman released a beautiful single that's today's intro tune...

National

The Treasury Department wants to improve the quality and consistency of Wall Street efforts to align finance with long-term "net-zero" emissions.

Driving the news: Treasury on Tuesday unveiled "Principles for NetZero Financing & Investment."

The voluntary effort looks to promote "consistency and credibility" in the large numbers of banks and other financial institutions with targets.

The goal of the "best practices" is aiding financial players that already have targets and those that set them going forward.

Why it matters: Private sector lending, underwriting and other services influence the trajectory of energy transition.

How it works: The Treasury document lays out nine principles, such as "credible metrics and targets," ensuring transparency on progress, and "robust" governance.

Treasury also said several philanthropies including Bezos Earth Fund will provide $340 million combined.

It's partly for research, data and technical resources to help financial players develop and execute commitments.

A Treasury official said the money would not flow to banks but rather the "broad ecosystem" of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and researchers working on the topic.

The intrigue: One section of the wide-ranging Treasury document urges institutions to consider "managed phaseout practices." 

That means "financing, investing, or advisory services that support a managed and accelerated transition from high-emitting to zero- or near-zero emissions assets."

The bottom line: The wording is delicate, but Treasury is looking to help enable movement away from fossil fuels.

"Principles for NetZero Financing & Investment."

Treasury aims to boost banks' climate plans

The voluntary effort looks to promote "consistency and credibility" in the financial sector

Illustration of a golden coin with an emboss of the Earth on it.  

Environment

The Treasury Department wants to improve the quality and consistency of Wall Street efforts to align finance with long-term <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="&quot;net-zero&quot; emissions" data-vars-click-url="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition" data-vars-content-id="063e2ec5-8e8c-4dcc-8aa0-3da222637f42" data-vars-headline="Treasury aims to boost banks&#x27; climate plans" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/net-zero-coalition" target="_blank">&quot;net-zero&quot; emissions</a>.Driving the news: Treasury on Tuesday unveiled <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="&quot;Principles for NetZero Financing &amp; Investment.&quot;" data-vars-click-url="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/NetZeroPrinciples.pdf" data-vars-content-id="063e2ec5-8e8c-4dcc-8aa0-3da222637f42" data-vars-headline="Treasury aims to boost banks&#x27; climate plans" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/NetZeroPrinciples.pdf" target="_blank">&quot;Principles for NetZero Financing &amp; Investment.&quot;</a>

Ominous forecasts about the impact of climate change serve as the backdrop for the world — led by U.S. lawmakers and companies — to debate big action on the problem, which could upend energy systems and our way of life.

Energy & Environment

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

President Biden wants muscular federal use of a key metric that estimates damages from each added ton of greenhouse gases emitted.

Why it matters: This might shake up big decisions, but it depends on how it's implemented, how fast, and who's in the Oval Office.

"It will be the first time this 'whole of government approach' is used to evaluate the climate consequences of government actions," Richard Revesz, who heads the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, tells the New York Times.

Driving the news: Agencies will more broadly apply the "social cost of greenhouse gas emissions" — long part of regulations — in procurement, budgeting and environmental reviews.

State of play: The social cost tries to tally impacts from rising sea levels, changes in labor productivity, farm output, human health and other climate effects.

The use "allows better comparisons to other costs and benefits of agency decisions that may also be presented in dollar figures," the White House announcement states.

The other side: Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, the top environment committee Republican, said Biden officials are using "unproven figures" to try to justify policies that increase costs to families, "hamstring" employers and "delay job-creating infrastructure projects."

The big picture: The White House noted the government spends over $630 billion annually on goods and services.

"Agencies should consider procurements of large, durable, energy-consuming products and systems that could serve as pilots," the policy states.

Beyond procurement, examples of expanded use of the metric include assessing costs and benefits of discretionary grants and evaluating overseas aid decisions.

Catch up fast: Some of this was already in progress.

The White House noted the Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council has already sought input on using the social cost in procurement. The announcement also pointed to the Postal Service's EV purchase efforts.

Elsewhere, an interim White House Council on Environmental Quality guidance delves into using the social cost in National Environmental Policy Act reviews.

The intrigue: Social cost estimates are tricky and disputed.

A Biden administration working group set an interim figure of $51 per metric ton, mirroring an Obama-era value; but officials are expected to raise it substantially.

Agencies will have discretion in what estimates to use, a White House official tells Axios.

The bottom line: The wonky move could stitch climate policy more deeply into the fabric of government decisions.

Feds urged by Biden to widen use of "social cost" on climate change

Social cost estimates are tricky and disputed..

Climate change

Biden's new "American Climate Corps" aims to enlist 20,000 young people

A paid training program aims to provide "pathways to high-quality employment opportunities."

Illustration of a high-top sneaker with the Earth as the logo.

White House

The White House is cobbling together a program under existing powers to bring young people into low-carbon energy and climate resilience jobs.Driving the news: Officials just unveiled the &quot;American Climate Corps.&quot; It&#x27;s an executive branch stab at the New Deal-inspired &quot;Civilian Climate Corps&quot; idea, which the White House unsuccessfully <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="urged Congress" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2021/06/30/biden-clean-standard-budget-reconciliation" data-vars-content-id="8f234bcf-7cc9-4b0f-ab36-de00365d12a2" data-vars-headline="Biden&#x27;s new &quot;American Climate Corps&quot; aims to enlist 20,000 young people" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2021/06/30/biden-clean-standard-budget-reconciliation" target="_self">urged Congress</a> to create and fund with billions of dollars in what became the Inflation Reduction Act.

Note: Swings states are those with a margin of less than 1.5% in the popular vote; Data: BloombergNEF; Map: Jared Whalen/Axios

Politics influences whether electric vehicles are taking off in various states, according to a new report.

Why it matters: That finding, part of wider new analysis from the research firm BloombergNEF, arrives as EVs are bound up in 2024 politics.

Former President Trump, the frontrunner for the GOP nomination, is bashing President Biden's pro-EV policies, as are some rivals.

Meanwhile, EVs are dicey politics for Biden as leaders of the striking United Auto Workers fear the EV transition will leave workers behind.

Driving the news: BNEF finds links between median income and share of EVs in a state fleet, but "there is a greater relationship to date between the political leanings of a state and its EV adoption."

Yes, but: Many forces affect where EV adoption is relatively robust or low, they find.

Policy matters. California is the runaway leader, but multiple states with relatively high sales follow its vehicle emissions policies.

State purchase subsidies are in play too. So are sales laws — states that allow EV makers to bypass dealerships and sell directly to consumers tend to have somewhat higher uptake.

The intrigue: There are other influences as well. For instance, New York and Illinois lag "peer blue" states, even though both are run by pro-EV officials.

One possible reason, aside from banning direct-to-consumer sales, is they have densely populated cities where charging can be tough, the report theorizes.

What's next: The report finds opportunities for automakers, charging providers and policymakers.

Some states where adoption has yet to really take off — like Texas, Michigan, Georgia, and Illinois — have "strong fundamentals" around incentives or manufacturing bases.

Automakers that can break through in these burgeoning markets may gain a competitive edge, the BNEF report states.

What we're watching: Auto politics are center stage this week.

Biden joined the UAW picket line in Michigan on Tuesday — and didn't mention EVs in remarks to workers.

Trump speaks at an auto supplier in the state Wednesday night while GOP hopefuls are debating in California, where more criticism of Biden's EV policies is likely.

The bottom line: EVs are on the ballot in 2024.

Trump-voting states are less likely to embrace electric vehicles

EVs are bound up in 2024 presidential politics.

Electric vehicles

Politics influences whether <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="electric vehicles" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/electric-cars-autoworkers-contract-strike" data-vars-content-id="91412031-1090-47a0-838d-69451e4fe104" data-vars-headline="Trump-voting states are less likely to embrace electric vehicles" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/2023/08/23/electric-cars-autoworkers-contract-strike" target="_self">electric vehicles</a> are taking off in various states, according to a new report.Why it matters: That finding, part of wider new analysis from the research firm BloombergNEF, arrives as EVs are bound up in <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="2024 politics" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/us-presidential-house-senate-elections" data-vars-content-id="91412031-1090-47a0-838d-69451e4fe104" data-vars-headline="Trump-voting states are less likely to embrace electric vehicles" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/politics-policy/us-presidential-house-senate-elections" target="_self">2024 politics</a>.

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

The Interior Department just unveiled plans to greatly slow the pace of offshore oil and gas lease sales over the next five years compared to historical levels.

Why it matters: Offshore Gulf waters are an important part of U.S. oil production, albeit a smaller share of the total since the onshore shale boom took off.

Driving the news: The 2024-2029 schedule envisions three sales in the Gulf of Mexico in 2025, 2027 and 2029. That's "the fewest oil and gas lease sales in history," Interior said.

The intrigue: The Inflation Reduction Act is shaking up Interior's calculus.

It tethers offshore wind development — a White House priority — to oil and gas offerings demanded by Sen. Joe Manchin, a critical vote.

For 10 years, Interior can't issue a wind development lease unless it has offered 60 million acres for offshore oil and gas in the previous year.

Catch up fast: A draft five-year plan in 2022, before the law passed, envisioned up to 11 sales, with 10 in the Gulf of Mexico and one off southeast Alaska, yet also said zero sales was possible.

State of play: "In compliance with the terms of the IRA, these three proposed lease sales are the minimum number that will enable the Interior Department to continue to expand its offshore wind leasing program through 2030," Interior said Friday morning.

The big picture: Climate activists want Biden to thwart fossil fuel development.

The oil industry and GOP officials say Biden's already too cautious and is holding back future production in the Gulf and elsewhere.

What they're saying: Drilling advocates immediately attacked the plan. American Petroleum Institute President Mike Sommers, in a statement, said the "restrictive" approach is part of a "coordinated strategy to reduce energy production."

It will mean "weakening America's energy dominance, limiting consumers access to affordable reliable energy and compromising our ability to lead on the global stage."

The other side: Earthjustice President Abigail Dillen said "it's essential to create the runway for a transition to offshore wind," but added: "this...plan also represents a crucial missed opportunity to minimize future oil and gas drilling."

"We are too far along in the climate crisis to be committing ourselves to decades of new fossil fuel extraction," she said in a statement.

Bloomberg reports that some environmentalists say the administration could accomplish its wind goals with one or two oil and gas sales.

What's next: A 60-day clock before Interior can formally approve the proposed final program unveiled today. It starts running when it's formally published Oct. 2.

Oil production

The Interior Department just unveiled plans to greatly slow the pace of offshore oil and gas lease sales over the next five years compared to historical <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="levels" data-vars-click-url="https://www.boem.gov/oil-gas-energy/lease-sales" data-vars-content-id="f43409f0-f7ac-4bb6-99ec-894707e0f53e" data-vars-headline="Biden shows his cards on offshore drilling" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.boem.gov/oil-gas-energy/lease-sales" target="_blank">levels</a>.Why it matters: Offshore Gulf waters are an important part of U.S. oil production, albeit a smaller share of the total since the onshore shale boom took off.

Ben Geman

Stories

Biden shows his cards on offshore drilling

Trump-voting states are less likely to embrace electric vehicles

Feds urged by Biden to widen use of "social cost" on climate change

Biden's new "American Climate Corps" aims to enlist 20,000 young people

Treasury aims to boost banks' climate plans

Newsletter editions

🔥 Canada’s wildfire surprise

🛢️ A fresh spike

🚗 Electric politics

🚧 Narrowing net zero

🇨🇳 China's red lines