Axios

Democratic state leaders are pushing back against the Trump administration's policies and threats this week.

The big picture: As protests against Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids escalate nationwide, particularly in California, lawmakers are seizing the moment to challenge the administration's bluff about not cooperating with President Trump's enforcement policies.

Two Palestinian men had their visas revoked by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) at San Francisco International Airport Wednesday and remain in federal custody, according to Supervisor Bilal Mahmood.

Driving the news: An East Bay Jewish congregation had invited Eid Hthaleen and Ouda Alhadlin, two community leaders in the occupied West Bank, to participate in an interfaith speaking tour.

Update: Israel began attacking Iran's nuclear sites on Thursday night.

The Trump administration told the Israeli government the U.S. won't be directly involved in any Israeli military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, two U.S. sources and an Israeli source familiar with those discussions tell Axios.

Why it matters: Officials in the U.S., Israel and Iran are all preparing for a scenario where U.S.-Iran nuclear talks collapse, Israel orders waves of strikes on Iran, and Iran retaliates by attacking Israel and U.S. bases in the region — possibly all within the next week or so.

Chicago is hosting a citywide celebration and mass on Saturday for the first American-and Chicago-born Pope.

Why it matters: Pope Leo XIV is scheduled to deliver a video message for youth from the Vatican, but some are also wondering if the Holy Father will wade into politics.

MAGA erupted Thursday with warnings that the movement could fracture if President Trump green-lights — or fails to stop — Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Why it matters: Non-interventionism is one of the core pillars of the "America First" movement — arguably as important to the MAGA base as immigration and trade.

Update: Israel began attacking Iran's nuclear sites on Thursday night.

White House envoy Steve Witkoff privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities, according to a U.S. official and a source with direct knowledge.

Why it matters: With Israel preparing to strike Iran quickly if Witkoff's diplomacy fails this weekend, President Trump's envoy sounded the alarm about what would come next. Iran's retaliation could overwhelm Israel's defenses and cause heavy damage, he said.

Iran on Thursday repudiated a declaration from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that it's not complying with its nuclear obligations, and said it would enhance aspects of its nuclear program in response.

Why it matters: The latest clash comes with the U.S.-Iran nuclear talks in danger of collapse, and Israel preparing for potential strikes on Iran's nuclear program. With fears of war growing, the U.S. has moved some personnel out of the region.

Want to figure out how to win over MAGA? Take two former Senate colleagues as an instructive case study.

• Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) recent trip to Ukraine infuriated MAGA, which has placed a target on his back despite his close friendship with President Trump.
• Secretary of State Marco Rubio hails from similarly hawkish roots. But he's moved squarely into the camp of MAGA favorites.

Why it matters: Understanding why Graham is still seen as an outsider — and how Rubio made it inside the tent — offers a roadmap for Republicans trying to thrive in a MAGA-dominated GOP.

President Trump's reputation as a consummate dealmaker is being challenged by his second-term record.

Why it matters: Supporters inside and outside the White House regularly rhapsodize his negotiating skills. Unorthodox moves are lauded as part of "The Art of the Deal."

• If Trump's dealmaking stature were to erode, it could limit his flexibility on everything from tariffs to taxes.

The U.S. is evacuating nonessential staff from its Baghdad embassy and family members of military personnel from several bases in the Gulf amid growing concerns about the security situation, per two State Department and Pentagon officials.

Why it matters: The unusual steps are taking place ahead of a crucial round of nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran and amid threats made by Tehran to launch missiles against American military bases in the region in retaliation for any attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

President Trump launched a website Wednesday for people to register their interest in signing up for a "gold card" that would enable successful applicants to buy U.S. permanent residency for $5 million.

The big picture: Trump has suggested the card that would replace the EB-5 investor visa could result in 1 million units sold and raise enough money to retire the national debt.

Columbia University alumnus Mahmoud Khalil cannot be detained nor deported from the U.S. based on evidence provided by the Trump administration, a federal judge ruled Wednesday.

The big picture: It's a setback for the administration in the case of a legal U.S. resident that marks a historic test of immigrants' speech rights.