MAGA warns Trump of "massive schism" over Israeli strikes on Iran

• But plenty of Trump allies in the Republican Party are fiercely pro-Israel, and believe the U.S. should support its closest Middle Eastern ally if it chooses to attack Iran.
• Long-bubbling tensions in the MAGA movement are exploding into public view amid reports that nuclear talks with Iran are failing and Israel is preparing a military option.

The latest: "I'd love to avoid the conflict. Iran's going to have to negotiate a little bit tougher. Meaning they're going to have to give us some things they're not willing to give us right now," Trump told reporters Thursday.

• "I don't want to say imminent, but it looks like it's something that could very well happen," he added when asked about the timing of Israel's potential attack.
• "Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. Other than that, I want them to be successful."

What they're saying: "A direct strike on Iran right now would disastrously split the Trump coalition," MAGA podcaster Jack Posobiec wrote on X, predicting it could cost Republicans the midterms.

• Charlie Kirk, the MAGA activist with close ties to the White House, warned that "no issue currently divides the right as much as foreign policy."
• "I'm very concerned based on [everything] I've seen in the grassroots the last few months that this will cause a massive schism in MAGA and potentially disrupt our momentum and our insanely successful Presidency," Kirk posted on X.
• Mollie Hemingway, editor-in-chief of The Federalist, said Trump "knows in his gut that this would be a strategic policy mistake" — and that if the White House proceeds, it would be seen as "an unforgivable betrayal."

The big picture: Trump's team has long been divided on how to deal with Iran, as Axios' Barak Ravid has reported.

• Some aides, including Vice President Vance, are pushing for a diplomatic solution. Others, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, are skeptical Iran will ever agree to a deal that significantly limits its nuclear program.
• White House envoy Steve Witkoff, who is leading negotiations, privately warned top Senate Republicans last week that Iran could unleash a mass casualty response if Israel bombs their nuclear facilities
• Trump's outside supporters are also divided: Conservative commentators Tucker Carlson and Mark Levin have been in a vicious public feud over Levin's pro-Israel advocacy, and vice versa.

The intrigue: Trump told Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as recently as Monday that he believed there was a chance of reaching a nuclear deal with Iran and therefore opposes military action.

• But on Wednesday, the U.S. suddenly moved to evacuate some staff and family of service-members from Baghdad and military bases in the Gulf, citing regional tensions.
• CBS News and the New York Times have reported that Israel is prepared to launch an attack on Iran's nuclear sites, even with Witkoff still planning to participate in a sixth round of nuclear talks on Sunday.
• ""We are fairly close to an agreement [with Iran]," Trump told reporters Thursday. "As long as I think there is an agreement, I don't want [Israel] going in."

Between the lines: Israel's role in U.S. foreign policy has increasingly exacerbated MAGA's internal divisions.

• Hawkish Republicans and evangelicals support Trump's historically pro-Israel positions, including his decision to withdraw from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and move the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem.
• Others wonder if the close relationship is worth the billions of dollars in aid and weapons that Washington sends to Israel — and the military risks that come with it.
• These non-interventionists are joined by a slice of MAGA that promotes antisemitism and conspiracy theories about Israel controlling American politicians.

The bottom line: Some of Trump's popularity can be traced back to his early promises to keep out the U.S. out of Middle Eastern quagmires and advocate solely for Americans interests. A strike on Iran, supporters argue, risks undermining one of his most fundamental promises: "No new wars."