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Human-caused climate change is poised to heavily strain the U.S. power grid in the coming decades, and vast improvements are needed to enhance its reliability and ability to meet increasing electricity demands, experts say. 

Why it matters: The effects of new weather extremes on the grid may be seen throughout the summer if intense heat waves trigger energy demand spikes that test the limits of power infrastructures nationwide, officials have warned.

"We're designing our energy systems today for the past 50 years of weather and not the next 50 years of weather, and that's a problem," Melissa Lott, research director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told Axios.

Threat level: The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a nonprofit that oversees the reliability of the North American power grids, warned in an assessment last month that two-thirds of the continent face an elevated risk of energy shortfalls this summer if extreme heat events occur.

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the power grid covering most of Texas, issued a one-week weather watch, saying it anticipates higher electrical demand because of forecasted elevated temperatures.

Last summer, the grid set 11 all-time peak-demand records, and ERCOT officials asked people to conserve energy multiple times.

How it works: Climate change and global warming from the emission of greenhouse gases that trap heat from the Sun at the Earth's surface have caused — and will continue to cause — higher temperatures, deadlier heatwaves, sea level rise, exacerbated droughts, riskier wildfire seasons, stronger hurricanes, and more.

These weather and climate events, intensified by climate change and global warming, have the potential to affect the reliability of all aspects of the grid, from power generation and transmission to demand.

While they can physically damage components of the grid, like transformers, the events can also drive a massive spike in energy demand that overwhelms the available electricity supply, causing brownouts, rolling blackouts or total blackouts.

Outside of extreme events, as average temperatures continue to rise and nights and the spring months become hotter, how and when people demand energy will also shift.

For example, the Department of Energy expects people will use more electricity for cooling, which also increases the chance of blackouts and other power disruptions.

Lott noted that increased temperatures don't just alter how much electricity average people consume, but also the efficiency of power generation. 

State of play: Parts of the federal government, including the DOE, have said that the power grid is currently unprepared for the extreme weather of the future and resilience upgrades are needed alongside investments in renewable forms of energy, such as wind and solar.

The Government Accountability Office estimated in 2021 that without upgrades to the grid, weather-related power outages could cost utility companies and customers billions of dollars annually in the coming decades.

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave the U.S. energy system a "C-" grade on its 2021 infrastructure report card, citing weather as its most prominent — and increasing — threat.

By the numbers: The number of annual power outages in the U.S. caused by severe weather events has increased from around 50 in the early 2000s to more than 100 on average in recent years, according to a 2022 AP analysis of DOE data.

Not only has the frequency of outages increased, but the duration of disruptions has too, with customers on average experiencing more than eight hours of outages in 2020, the analysis found.

The big picture: Disasters in recent years have shown that blackouts coinciding with severe weather can be extremely deadly.

Hundreds of people in Puerto Rico died after Hurricane Maria devastated the island's grid in 2017, causing a prolonged blackout that lasted several months.

More than 100 people died from hypothermia during a massive, multi-day power crisis in Texas set off by a winter storm in February 2021, which left millions without electricity.

Power outages during Hurricane Irma in 2017 resulted in the deaths of at least 40 people across Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, including 14 elderly people at an assisted-living facility in Florida who were without air conditioning for several days after the storm, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Go deeper: Attacks on power grid raise alarm among top officials

brownouts, rolling blackouts or total blackouts.

Attacks on power grid raise alarm among top officials

The U.S. power grid isn't ready for climate change

Human-caused climate change is poised to heavily strain the U.S. power grid in the coming decades.

Power transmission lines in Texas in July 2022.

Power transmission lines in Texas in July 2022. Photo: Nick Wagner/Xinhua via Getty Images

Electric grid

Climate change

Extreme weather

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

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News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

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There aren't enough homes in the U.S. That's one big reason house prices have barely fallen since the Fed's rate hikes sent mortgage costs soaring. 

Why it matters: Except for the very wealthy who can afford to buy whatever they want, the housing shortage touches almost every aspect of Americans' lives and livelihoods and hits the overall economy, too. 

The lack of affordable housing means some are shut out from that first rung on the ladder to building wealth, while for others the more immediate threat of homelessness is never too far off.

By the numbers: Estimates on the exact size of the country's housing deficit vary but they're all in the millions.

According to the most recent estimates from Freddie Mac, the country is short about 3.8 million units of housing, both for-rent and for-sale — meaning there aren't enough homes to keep up with the number of new households that are forming.

A few reasons for the shortage: A lack of available labor to build homes, as well as regulations over land use and zoning.

NIMBYism: The pushback that new construction gets in the nation's suburbs and cities, Freddie Mac explains. 

Also, homebuilding activity cratered after the Great Recession, and never totally recovered (see the chart below). 

Work from home increased the demand for space. 

Data: FRED via Moody's Analytics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The big picture: The median home price, at $419,103, is now 40% higher than it was in January 2020, before the pandemic-driven run-up (though it’s inched down 3.1% over the most recent year), per Redfin.

Between the lines: Some believed higher mortgage rates would push prices down much more, making homes more affordable, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

The rationale was that the economy would slow, as a result of the Fed's rate-hiking campaign, and folks would lose jobs or their incomes would fall and they'd have to sell.

That's because the economy has remained surprisingly strong, so most homeowners don't have any financial reason to sell.

There's also the golden handcuffs: Most mortgage holders stay put, hanging on to their record-low rates.

Plus, so many people moved during the pandemic-era boom — 60% of mortgage holders bought their homes or refinanced their mortgage in the last four years, per Redfin — that fewer people want to move now.

The impact: That all translates into low inventory on the market — there are 39% fewer homes for sale now than five years ago, Redfin reported last week.

That's a major factor in keeping prices from falling much.

It could be worse: House prices would probably have increased by at least 15% over the past year had the Fed not raised rates, Fairweather said.

For example: A lot of first-time buyers were initially scared off when mortgage rates first started rising last year, said David Ostrowsky, a senior loan officer at CrossCountry Mortgage in the New York City metro area. Now, he's seeing them come back and try to buy.

"A certain mindset has shifted," he said, they're no longer "fixated" on interest rates, and are now trying to focus on their future overall monthly payments.

And they're getting caught up in bidding wars for homes, he said.

"Buyers are not scared away by interest rates, especially first-time homebuyers. They are handcuffed by a lack of inventory."

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that Redfin has corrected an earlier statement to note that 60% of mortgage holders have either refinanced their loan or lived in their home for four years or less (not that they have lived in their homes for less than four years).

Work from home increased the demand for space

America's housing shortage is keeping home prices high

The shortage has its roots in the financial crisis, and was exacerbated by the pandemic.

Housing

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

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Hunter Biden has agreed to plead guilty to not paying taxes in 2017 and 2018, and he'll enter into a probation agreement on a charge of illegally owning a gun while being a drug user, according to a Tuesday court filing by the U.S. Attorney in Delaware.

Why it matters: Hunter Biden's agreement could conclude the Justice Department's years-long investigation into him, in addition to prompting congressional Republicans to further ramp up their investigations into Hunter and the Biden family.

Hunter’s attorney Chris Clark said in a statement that he believes this will be the end of the federal investigation into the president’s son.

U.S. Attorney David Weiss said in a statement on Tuesday that the investigation is "ongoing."

Driving the news: Hunter is set to appear and be arraigned in a federal court in Delaware in the coming week where he will enter his guilty plea.

The Justice Department charged that Hunter possessed a Colt Cobra revolver in Delaware in October 2018 while “knowing that he was an unlawful user of and addicted to a controlled substance.”

The maximum penalty for the gun charge is 10 years in jail and a fine of $250,000.

Hunter was also charged with failure to timely file and pay taxes in 2017 and 2018 when, by his own admission, he was in the throes of an addiction to crack cocaine.

As the Justice Department investigated his finances, Hunter "fully paid" his tax debts, Clark told CNN in July 2022.

What they're saying: "The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment," a White House spokesperson said in a statement.

Former President Trump criticized the plea deal, writing on Truth Social that the Justice Department had given Hunter a “mere ‘traffic ticket.’ Our system is BROKEN!”

House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that his committee will move forward with their investigations.

Between the lines: Hunter Biden first learned of the investigation in late 2018 after the Justice Department subpoenaed one of his financial institutions, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The investigation did not become public until after the November 2020 election.

In December 2020, Hunter issued a statement that obscured how long he had known about the probe.

“I learned yesterday for the first time that the U.S. attorney’s office in Delaware advised my legal counsel, also yesterday, that they are investigating my tax affairs," he said then.

"I take this matter very seriously but I am confident that a professional and objective review of these matters will demonstrate that I handled my affairs legally and appropriately.”

The bottom line: Weiss, the prosecutor, has been overseeing the case since the Trump administration. 

Biden's Justice Department pointedly did not replace him to try to avoid appearing to influence the investigation.

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where host Niala Boodhoo and Alex Thompson talk about how unusual this case is against a president's son.

Editor's note: This article was updated with more reporting throughout the day. 

Hunter Biden charged with gun felony and tax misdemeanors

The 53-year-old is the son of President Biden.

Hunter Biden in 2020. Photo: Handout/DNCC via Getty Images

Hunter Biden

Joe Biden

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

A federal judge in Florida on Tuesday set a preliminary start date of Aug. 14 for the criminal trial of former President Trump in connection to his handling of classified documents.

Driving the news: Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner, pleaded not guilty last week after facing a historic 37-count indictment.

Florida District Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that all pre-trial motions should be filed by July 24.

Yes, but: The start date is unlikely to hold. Trump and his legal team are expected to push a flurry of motions and challenges in an attempt to delay the trial, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.

Zoom out: A federal judge in Florida ruled that Trump and his legal team cannot keep or publicly disclose any federal evidence in the case.

In an interview with Fox News' Bret Baier on Monday, Trump defended his decision to take boxes of documents with him when he left the White House, saying he "was very busy."

Judge sets August trial date for Trump documents case

Trump pleaded not guilty last week to charges related to his handling of classified documents.

Former President Trump speaks at his golf club 

Former President Trump speaks at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Donald Trump

Most expensive sports franchise sales

Note: The Commanders' sale is still awaiting league approval. Data: Sportico; Chart: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios

Michael Jordan agreed on Friday to sell his majority stake in the Charlotte Hornets at a $3 billion valuation, ending his 13-year run as the team's owner.

Why it matters: That's the seventh-most expensive sale price ever for a sports franchise. Six of the seven richest sales have come in the past 13 months.

Details: Jordan, who will keep a minority stake in the team once the deal is finalized, sold to a group led by Hornets minority owner Gabe Plotkin and Atlanta Hawks minority owner Rick Schnall. With Jordan out, the National Basketball Association will have zero Black majority owners.

By the numbers: Jordan is widely considered the best player in NBA history, yet his lifetime NBA salary ($93.9 million) pales in comparison to what he's made elsewhere, bringing in roughly $4 billion between his Nike earnings and the Hornets sale. Then there's the on-court discrepancy:

In 15 years as a player, Jordan won six rings and played in 179 playoff games.

In 13 years as an owner, Jordan's Hornets had four winning seasons and played in just 15 playoff games (three first-round series losses)

The big picture: Despite that run of sub-mediocrity, Jordan's return on investment is roughly 10x his original purchase ($275M), further proof that sports ownership is just about the best investment there is.

Snapshot: The 10 most expensive sales in history, ordered by rate of return…

🏈 Denver Broncos: Bought for $78M in 1984, sold for $4.65B in 2022 (59.6x return)

⚾️ New York Mets: Bought for $81M in 1986, sold for $2.42B in 2020 (29.9x)

🏀 Houston Rockets: Bought for $85M in 1993, sold for $2.2B in 2017 (25.9x)

⚽️ Chelsea: Bought for $233M in 2003, sold for $3.16B in 2022 (13.6x)

🏈 Carolina Panthers: Bought for $206M in 1993, sold for $2.28B in 2018 (11.1x)

🏀 Hornets: Bought for $275M in 2010, sold for $3B in 2023 (10.9x)

🏀 Phoenix Suns: Bought for $401M in 2004, sold for $4B in 2023 (10x)

🏀 New Jersey Nets: Bought for $393M in 2010, sold for $3.3B in 2019 (8.4x)

🏈 Washington Commanders: Bought for $800M in 1999, sold for $6 billion in 2023 (7.6x)

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks: Bought for $550M in 2014, sold for $3.2B in 2023 (5.8x)

sell his majority stake in the Charlotte Hornets

Michael Jordan cashes in on Hornets sale

With Jordan out, the NBA will have zero Black majority owners.

Sports

Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

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Axios China

U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken's trip to China restored high-level dialogue between Washington and Beijing, but failed to persuade China's leaders to reopen communications that could help avert a potential military crisis.

Why it matters: The failure to establish a military-to-military crisis communications channel prolongs the risk of miscalculation and conflict in the region, experts say.

State of play: The U.S. military regularly engages in lawful "freedom of navigation" operations through international waters, including the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, over which China claims sovereignty. 

Though China's claims have no basis in international law, the Chinese government uses its military to pressure and sometimes harass other militaries operating in the region, occasionally leading to tense confrontations. 

The latest: Recent close calls between U.S. and Chinese military vessels in the region show it is "absolutely vital that we have these kinds of communications military to military," Blinken said at a press conference on Monday in Beijing.

Restoring military contact remains a "work in progress," Blinken later said in an interview with CBS.

China's military has previously said U.S. military activity in the region is "deliberately provoking risk."

Between the lines: Beijing "is trying to get the U.S. to fundamentally change its military posture in the region, so it doesn’t want to play into the U.S. attempts to set up safeguards for U.S. military activities in the region," Paul Haenle, director of Carnegie China and former China director on the U.S. national security council under Bush and Obama, told Axios.

Beijing is using the issue as a form of leverage but may face "harsh judgment" from the international community for refusing to establish a crisis hotline, Haenle said. 

"It’s hard to defend a policy of not talking when tensions in the region between the U.S. and China are so high."

Background: The Chinese government cut off several lines of communication, including military-to-military, after then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan last summer, and the bilateral relationship has failed to recover since then.

Careful diplomacy throughout the fall resulted in a series of high-level meetings, including one between President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia in November.

Blinken was expected to visit Beijing earlier this year but he canceled the trip in the aftermath of the Chinese spy balloon incident in February. 

Since then, Chinese officials rebuffed repeated U.S. attempts to hold high-level talks.

The big picture: Blinken's trip helped put a floor on the U.S.-China relationship. 

Blinken and Xi met for a half hour on Monday afternoon in what Blinken described as a "robust conversation" and Xi hailed as "progress." 

Both sides agreed to support future high-level visits and Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang accepted Blinken's invitation to come to Washington. 

They also agreed to cooperate on several relatively small measures, including creating a working group to discuss the illicit flow of fentanyl precursor chemicals from China to the U.S. through Mexico and supporting more people-to-people exchanges, including programs for students and scholars.

"Both sides clearly used the visit to help stabilize the relationship, which has been lurching toward dangerously intense confrontation," Danny Russell, who previously served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs under Obama, told Axios. 

The deliverables were "modest" but "Blinken’s visit was intended by both sides to lower the temperature, not to resolve fundamental disagreements," Russell said.

What to watch: Both Blinken and Xi reiterated the importance of responsibly managing great power competition, just as Xi and Biden emphasized in their meeting at the G20 in Bali last year.

But it "remains to be seen if this iteration of the spirit of the Bali meeting last year is any more resilient to unforeseen balloon-style events than the last one," James Crabtree, executive director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies-Asia, told Axios.

The U.S and Chinese militaries still aren't talking

The breakdown in crisis communications raises the risk of conflict.

Illustration of the American and Chinese flags frozen in an ice cube.

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Axios Vitals

A feud broke out on Twitter over the weekend between popular podcaster Joe Rogan and prominent vaccine researcher Peter Hotez, with the podcaster challenging the scientist to a debate about vaccines in an online skirmish that drew fire from a few billionaires.

Why it matters: The incident — which ultimately resulted in individuals approaching the scientist outside his home — highlighted the potential risks for researchers and medical professionals using the platform, which saw a rise in hate speech after its acquisition by billionaire Elon Musk. 

While Twitter was a key source for information during the pandemic — and some scientists have argued the importance of remaining there as a counterbalance to growing misinformation and anti-science rhetoric — others say it's time to head for the doors. 

"In light of what's happened over the last several months — and over the weekend — I believe we're at an inflection point where the risk/benefit analysis for folks such as myself is shifting to looking at going somewhere else," said Jorge Caballero, founder of Distal Labs, a non-profit that builds digital tools for grassroots advocacy groups. 

Catch up quick: The Twitter battle over the weekend started after Rogan hosted Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on his show for three hours, spending much of the time talking about anti-vaccine views.

In response, Hotez, part of a Nobel Prize-nominated team that created an affordable, patent-free COVID vaccine for use in poorer countries, retweeted a Vice article with the headline "Spotify Has Stopped Even Sort of Trying to Stem Joe Rogan's Vaccine Misinformation."

The show spread "nonsense," Hotez tweeted.

That prompted a challenge from Rogan to Hotez: "Peter, if you claim what RFKjr is saying is 'misinformation' I am offering you $100,000.00 to the charity of your choice if you're willing to debate him on my show with no time limit."

What happened next: Rogan's challenge sparked an internet pile-on against Hotez, accusing him of being a "pharma shill," as well as a back-and-forth between some of Twitter's most influential, including Musk and billionaire investor Mark Cuban.

"He's afraid of public debate because he knows he's wrong," Musk tweeted about Hotez. 

"Trying to bully Dr Hotez is ridiculous," Cuban tweeted.

Hotez said he's open to public discussion about vaccines and he's willing to go on Rogan's show — something he's done before — but said a debate with RFK Jr. wouldn't be productive. 

In an emailed statement, Kennedy's team said: "People like Dr. Hotez who harangue the public about the safety and efficacy of COVID vaccines should be prepared to defend their views in public as well." 

The FDA and CDC have found the data support the safety and efficacy of COVID vaccines, including in children.

What they're saying: Twitter is "no longer a tool that's accelerating science. On the contrary," said Michael Mina, chief science officer at eMed and a pediatric immunologist who regularly used Twitter during the pandemic to talk about COVID. He still uses Twitter, but sparingly, and expects he'll leave completely within the next six months, he said.

"It allowed me to effectively and efficiently sift through the noise of this massive explosion of new publishers and journals and papers that were published," Mina told Axios.

"That has gone away. It's now another big noisy mess," he said, adding he no longer gets pointed to relevant experts while those with the most polarizing content get promoted and discourse is drowned out.

Twitter did not respond to a request for comment.

The big picture: Since Musk acquired Twitter last year, the company has made cuts to its trust and safety staff, restored accounts of users banned for spreading misinformation and removed the platform's system for verifying trusted accounts.

In comments to Axios as well as online, scientists and medical researchers have said they're increasingly finding it difficult to find relevant information on Twitter. A recent study found Twitter's new algorithms are amplifying anger more since Musk took over the platform. 

Hotez told Axios he's seen a clear shift in anti-vaccine views as part of a well-organized, well-financed anti-science movement, and that's playing out on the platform.

Others say the platform has at times become "scary" for many health professionals amid anti-science rhetoric. That's particularly the case for women and people of color, Caballero said. 

What to watch: Several Twitter alternatives are emerging but it's not clear which, if any, will become the new platform of choice for scientists.

Experts often point to Mastodon, Bluesky and Meta's planned Twitter rival as possible options. Many scientists have been publishing elsewhere for a while on platforms like Substack.

Caballero suggested the future may be in a "decentralized" social media platform that mirrors the distribution model of podcasts, which have platforms such as Spotify and Apple. 

Online research-sharing could shift to a less public model, Mina suggested.

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to include a statement from a Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spokesperson.

growing misinformation and anti-science rhetoric

Scientists on Twitter head for the exit

A feud on Twitter highlights the perils of engaging on the platform and a growing tension among researchers and medical professionals.

Illustration of the Twitter logo bird flying from a nest

Twitter

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