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National

Human-caused climate change is poised to heavily strain the U.S. power grid in the coming decades, and vast improvements are needed to enhance its reliability and ability to meet increasing electricity demands, experts say. 

Why it matters: The effects of new weather extremes on the grid may be seen throughout the summer if intense heat waves trigger energy demand spikes that test the limits of power infrastructures nationwide, officials have warned.

"We're designing our energy systems today for the past 50 years of weather and not the next 50 years of weather, and that's a problem," Melissa Lott, research director of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told Axios.

Threat level: The North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), a nonprofit that oversees the reliability of the North American power grids, warned in an assessment last month that two-thirds of the continent face an elevated risk of energy shortfalls this summer if extreme heat events occur.

Last week, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which operates the power grid covering most of Texas, issued a one-week weather watch, saying it anticipates higher electrical demand because of forecasted elevated temperatures.

Last summer, the grid set 11 all-time peak-demand records, and ERCOT officials asked people to conserve energy multiple times.

How it works: Climate change and global warming from the emission of greenhouse gases that trap heat from the Sun at the Earth's surface have caused — and will continue to cause — higher temperatures, deadlier heatwaves, sea level rise, exacerbated droughts, riskier wildfire seasons, stronger hurricanes, and more.

These weather and climate events, intensified by climate change and global warming, have the potential to affect the reliability of all aspects of the grid, from power generation and transmission to demand.

While they can physically damage components of the grid, like transformers, the events can also drive a massive spike in energy demand that overwhelms the available electricity supply, causing brownouts, rolling blackouts or total blackouts.

Outside of extreme events, as average temperatures continue to rise and nights and the spring months become hotter, how and when people demand energy will also shift.

For example, the Department of Energy expects people will use more electricity for cooling, which also increases the chance of blackouts and other power disruptions.

Lott noted that increased temperatures don't just alter how much electricity average people consume, but also the efficiency of power generation. 

State of play: Parts of the federal government, including the DOE, have said that the power grid is currently unprepared for the extreme weather of the future and resilience upgrades are needed alongside investments in renewable forms of energy, such as wind and solar.

The Government Accountability Office estimated in 2021 that without upgrades to the grid, weather-related power outages could cost utility companies and customers billions of dollars annually in the coming decades.

The American Society of Civil Engineers gave the U.S. energy system a "C-" grade on its 2021 infrastructure report card, citing weather as its most prominent — and increasing — threat.

By the numbers: The number of annual power outages in the U.S. caused by severe weather events has increased from around 50 in the early 2000s to more than 100 on average in recent years, according to a 2022 AP analysis of DOE data.

Not only has the frequency of outages increased, but the duration of disruptions has too, with customers on average experiencing more than eight hours of outages in 2020, the analysis found.

The big picture: Disasters in recent years have shown that blackouts coinciding with severe weather can be extremely deadly.

Hundreds of people in Puerto Rico died after Hurricane Maria devastated the island's grid in 2017, causing a prolonged blackout that lasted several months.

More than 100 people died from hypothermia during a massive, multi-day power crisis in Texas set off by a winter storm in February 2021, which left millions without electricity.

Power outages during Hurricane Irma in 2017 resulted in the deaths of at least 40 people across Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina, including 14 elderly people at an assisted-living facility in Florida who were without air conditioning for several days after the storm, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Go deeper: Attacks on power grid raise alarm among top officials

brownouts, rolling blackouts or total blackouts.

Attacks on power grid raise alarm among top officials

The U.S. power grid isn't ready for climate change

Human-caused climate change is poised to heavily strain the U.S. power grid in the coming decades.

Power transmission lines in Texas in July 2022.

Power transmission lines in Texas in July 2022. Photo: Nick Wagner/Xinhua via Getty Images

Electric grid

Climate change

Extreme weather

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

There aren't enough homes in the U.S. That's one big reason house prices have barely fallen since the Fed's rate hikes sent mortgage costs soaring. 

Why it matters: Except for the very wealthy who can afford to buy whatever they want, the housing shortage touches almost every aspect of Americans' lives and livelihoods and hits the overall economy, too. 

The lack of affordable housing means some are shut out from that first rung on the ladder to building wealth, while for others the more immediate threat of homelessness is never too far off.

By the numbers: Estimates on the exact size of the country's housing deficit vary but they're all in the millions.

According to the most recent estimates from Freddie Mac, the country is short about 3.8 million units of housing, both for-rent and for-sale — meaning there aren't enough homes to keep up with the number of new households that are forming.

A few reasons for the shortage: A lack of available labor to build homes, as well as regulations over land use and zoning.

NIMBYism: The pushback that new construction gets in the nation's suburbs and cities, Freddie Mac explains. 

Also, homebuilding activity cratered after the Great Recession, and never totally recovered (see the chart below). 

Work from home increased the demand for space. 

Data: FRED via Moody's Analytics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The big picture: The median home price, at $419,103, is now 40% higher than it was in January 2020, before the pandemic-driven run-up (though it’s inched down 3.1% over the most recent year), per Redfin.

Between the lines: Some believed higher mortgage rates would push prices down much more, making homes more affordable, said Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin.

The rationale was that the economy would slow, as a result of the Fed's rate-hiking campaign, and folks would lose jobs or their incomes would fall and they'd have to sell.

That's because the economy has remained surprisingly strong, so most homeowners don't have any financial reason to sell.

There's also the golden handcuffs: Most mortgage holders stay put, hanging on to their record-low rates.

Plus, so many people moved during the pandemic-era boom — 60% of mortgage holders bought their homes or refinanced their mortgage in the last four years, per Redfin — that fewer people want to move now.

The impact: That all translates into low inventory on the market — there are 39% fewer homes for sale now than five years ago, Redfin reported last week.

That's a major factor in keeping prices from falling much.

It could be worse: House prices would probably have increased by at least 15% over the past year had the Fed not raised rates, Fairweather said.

For example: A lot of first-time buyers were initially scared off when mortgage rates first started rising last year, said David Ostrowsky, a senior loan officer at CrossCountry Mortgage in the New York City metro area. Now, he's seeing them come back and try to buy.

"A certain mindset has shifted," he said, they're no longer "fixated" on interest rates, and are now trying to focus on their future overall monthly payments.

And they're getting caught up in bidding wars for homes, he said.

"Buyers are not scared away by interest rates, especially first-time homebuyers. They are handcuffed by a lack of inventory."

Editor’s note: This story has been updated to reflect that Redfin has corrected an earlier statement to note that 60% of mortgage holders have either refinanced their loan or lived in their home for four years or less (not that they have lived in their homes for less than four years).

Work from home increased the demand for space

America's housing shortage is keeping home prices high

The shortage has its roots in the financial crisis, and was exacerbated by the pandemic.

Housing

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

2028

Axios 2028

Hunter Biden has agreed to plead guilty to not paying taxes in 2017 and 2018, and he'll enter into a probation agreement on a charge of illegally owning a gun while being a drug user, according to a Tuesday court filing by the U.S. Attorney in Delaware.

Why it matters: Hunter Biden's agreement could conclude the Justice Department's years-long investigation into him, in addition to prompting congressional Republicans to further ramp up their investigations into Hunter and the Biden family.

Hunter’s attorney Chris Clark said in a statement that he believes this will be the end of the federal investigation into the president’s son.

U.S. Attorney David Weiss said in a statement on Tuesday that the investigation is "ongoing."

Driving the news: Hunter is set to appear and be arraigned in a federal court in Delaware in the coming week where he will enter his guilty plea.

The Justice Department charged that Hunter possessed a Colt Cobra revolver in Delaware in October 2018 while “knowing that he was an unlawful user of and addicted to a controlled substance.”

The maximum penalty for the gun charge is 10 years in jail and a fine of $250,000.

Hunter was also charged with failure to timely file and pay taxes in 2017 and 2018 when, by his own admission, he was in the throes of an addiction to crack cocaine.

As the Justice Department investigated his finances, Hunter "fully paid" his tax debts, Clark told CNN in July 2022.

What they're saying: "The President and First Lady love their son and support him as he continues to rebuild his life. We will have no further comment," a White House spokesperson said in a statement.

Former President Trump criticized the plea deal, writing on Truth Social that the Justice Department had given Hunter a “mere ‘traffic ticket.’ Our system is BROKEN!”

House Oversight Chairman James Comer (R-Ky.) said Tuesday that his committee will move forward with their investigations.

Between the lines: Hunter Biden first learned of the investigation in late 2018 after the Justice Department subpoenaed one of his financial institutions, according to a source familiar with the matter.

The investigation did not become public until after the November 2020 election.

In December 2020, Hunter issued a statement that obscured how long he had known about the probe.

“I learned yesterday for the first time that the U.S. attorney’s office in Delaware advised my legal counsel, also yesterday, that they are investigating my tax affairs," he said then.

"I take this matter very seriously but I am confident that a professional and objective review of these matters will demonstrate that I handled my affairs legally and appropriately.”

The bottom line: Weiss, the prosecutor, has been overseeing the case since the Trump administration. 

Biden's Justice Department pointedly did not replace him to try to avoid appearing to influence the investigation.

Go deeper: Listen to the Axios Today podcast, where host Niala Boodhoo and Alex Thompson talk about how unusual this case is against a president's son.

Editor's note: This article was updated with more reporting throughout the day. 

Hunter Biden charged with gun felony and tax misdemeanors

The 53-year-old is the son of President Biden.

Hunter Biden in 2020. Photo: Handout/DNCC via Getty Images

Hunter Biden

Joe Biden

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

A federal judge in Florida on Tuesday set a preliminary start date of Aug. 14 for the criminal trial of former President Trump in connection to his handling of classified documents.

Driving the news: Trump, the 2024 Republican presidential frontrunner, pleaded not guilty last week after facing a historic 37-count indictment.

Florida District Judge Aileen Cannon ruled that all pre-trial motions should be filed by July 24.

Yes, but: The start date is unlikely to hold. Trump and his legal team are expected to push a flurry of motions and challenges in an attempt to delay the trial, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.

Zoom out: A federal judge in Florida ruled that Trump and his legal team cannot keep or publicly disclose any federal evidence in the case.

In an interview with Fox News' Bret Baier on Monday, Trump defended his decision to take boxes of documents with him when he left the White House, saying he "was very busy."

Judge sets August trial date for Trump documents case

Trump pleaded not guilty last week to charges related to his handling of classified documents.

Former President Trump speaks at his golf club 

Former President Trump speaks at his golf club in Bedminster, N.J. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

Donald Trump

Most expensive sports franchise sales

Note: The Commanders' sale is still awaiting league approval. Data: Sportico; Chart: Rahul Mukherjee/Axios

Michael Jordan cashes in on Hornets sale

With Jordan out, the NBA will have zero Black majority owners.

Axios

Tuesday's top stories

The U.S. power grid isn't ready for climate change

America's housing shortage is keeping home prices high

Hunter Biden charged with gun felony and tax misdemeanors

Judge sets August trial date for Trump documents case

Michael Jordan cashes in on Hornets sale

The U.S and Chinese militaries still aren't talking

Scientists on Twitter head for the exit

Wheelchair users fight for easier air travel

In tech, everything is labeled "AI" now

Judge orders Trump not to release evidence in classified documents case