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National

Republicans are pouring cash into House districts that voted for President Biden by as much as 20 points, targeting under-the-radar battlegrounds amid growing signs of a red wave.

Why it matters: Infusions of funding by both parties into these solidly blue seats signal the potential for a Republican landslide, further complicating the Democratic calculus on which races to defend.

Context: These districts are bluer than Washington state, which backed Biden by 19 points in 2020.

Driving the news: The National Republican Congressional Committee is making three six-figure investments in districts that went for Biden by 20 points in 2020, a source familiar with the matter tells Axios.

California's 26th: Rep. Julia Brownley (D) is sounding the alarm to colleagues about her surprisingly competitive race against Republican Matt Jacobs as Republicans make inroads in other West Coast blue states.

New York's 25th: Rep. Joe Morelle (D) faces former Rochester police chief La’Ron Singletary — who garnered headlines in 2020 when he was fired after the death of a man in police custody — as crime has emerged as a top issue up and down the ballot in New York.

Pennsylvania's 12th: Progressive Democrat Summer Lee is running in this Pittsburgh-based district to replace Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Pa.) — against a Republican local legislator also named Mike Doyle.

The other side: Democrats have been investing in these races as well amid signs of their competitiveness.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Tommy Garcia told Axios. "The DCCC has already invested in these seats that are critical to maintaining the majority."

"The NRCC and [chairperson] Tom Emmer can chase windmills all day long while their endangered incumbents struggle — but the DCCC along with outside spenders will make sure Matt Jacobs, La'Ron Singletary, and Mike Doyle never see the halls of Congress."

The big picture: Investments in these races go beyond just the party committees.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has transferred $2,000 to Morelle, as has Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), while House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has given $5,000 to Singletary.

Pelosi has also given $2,000 to Summer Lee.

The intrigue: The name confusion in Pennsylvania's 12th has led at least some Democratic voters to mistakenly vote by mail against Lee, according to her campaign manager Abigail Gardner. 

“It’s come up, but it’s not every voter,” Gardner told Axios. "It’s a lot of older folks who are just used to voting for [Rep. Doyle] and think maybe he switched parties." She said that it was more of an issue when mail-in ballots were first sent out.

“Overwhelmingly our conversations are people who thought Summer was running unopposed,” she added.

Lee's campaign has been working hard to clear up the confusion, running ads and sending texts differentiating between the two Doyles. A pro-Lee ad from Justice Democrats also focuses on the name confusion.

Yes, but: The name confusion is not the only factor at play in the race. 

Lee’s left-wing politics have made her a foil for Republicans elsewhere in the state. In the neighboring 17th District, Republicans are running an ad tying Democrat Chris Deluzio to Lee and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.).

And Rep. Doyle, who endorsed Lee's more moderate rival over her in the Democratic primary, said during a press conference to address the name confusion, "I support all the Democrats running on the ticket," without naming Lee specifically.

Go deeper: Other unlikely battlegrounds are suddenly popping up on both parties' radar screens. House Majority PAC spent a whopping $2.3 million this week to help Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.), a moderate representing a district Biden carried by 12 points. 

VoteVets, another big-spending Democratic outside group, spent $2 million this week boosting Rep. Mikie Sherrill's (D-N.J.) standing. Sherrill, whose north Jersey district backed Biden by 17 points, isn't even on the Cook Political Report's list of potentially vulnerable lawmakers.

Both parties are now pouring millions into DCCC chair Sean Patrick Maloney's Hudson Valley district (Biden +10), as Republicans bet big for a powerful symbolic victory.

Reality check: Even as some of these deep-blue districts are looking surprisingly competitive, Democrats are still holding their own in some traditional battleground districts. A series of four NYT/Siena House race polls — in Kansas, Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania swing seats — still show all four Democratic candidates ahead or tied. 

GOP reaches deeper into Biden-land

These districts voted for Biden by as much as 20 points.

Illustration of an elephant toeing a blue line

House Republicans

Politics & Policy

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

It's been just two days since Elon Musk officially bought Twitter. Already, the billionaire businessman is using the platform to spread misinformation to his 112 million followers — about the biggest U.S. news of the weekend.

Driving the news: Early on Sunday, Musk cited a widely discredited website that implied the brutal attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul, wasn't carried out by an unhinged far-right blogger — but rather was linked to an anti-LGTBQ "theory" about a skirmish at a local bar.

“There is a tiny possibility there might be more to this story than meets the eye,” Musk said in response to a tweet from Hillary Clinton.

Clinton tweeted a Los Angeles Times article about the suspect, David DePape, 42, who spread QAnon and other far-right conspiracies: “The Republican Party and its mouthpieces now regularly spread hate and deranged conspiracy theories. It is shocking, but not surprising, that violence is the result.”

A screenshot of a tweet from Elon Musk in reply to Hillary Clinton.

Later on Sunday, it appeared as though Musk had deleted the tweet.

Why it matters: Musk linked to an article from the Santa Monica Observer, a website known for years for publishing false stories.

The site "is anything but trustworthy," according to an executive at NewsGuard, a company that uses trained journalists to rate news and information sites.

The site has a trust score of 44.5 out of 100 points on NewsGuard’s rating scale for trustworthiness, due to repeatedly publishing numerous conspiracy theories and false claims about politics, the pandemic and more.

The site gets a red-rating and a warning for readers that says: "Proceed with caution: This website fails to adhere to several basic journalistic standards."

What to watch: Musk’s tweets have influence. The Observer's website went down early Sunday morning shortly after the tweet was published, apparently due to an influx of traffic from Musk’s tweet.

An error page read that the site’s web server, Cloudflare, was "returning an unknown error."

The big picture: Musk has said he plans to roll back content moderation on the platform in favor of “free speech, but has also tried to assure advertisers that "Twitter obviously cannot become a free-for-all hellscape.”

Editor's note: This version updates the headline for precision and notes that Musk's tweet has been removed.

Elon Musk tweets misinformation about Paul Pelosi

Musk cited a widely discredited website that implied the brutal attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul, was not carried out by an unhinged far-right blogger.

Photo illustration: Muhammed Selim Korkutata/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Elon Musk

Media

Social Media

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Technology

Latino

Axios Latino

Brazilians will decide Sunday between right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro and his leftist challenger, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, in what has become a nail-biter of an election. 

Why it matters: Experts say Brazil's democracy — just over three decades old — is at stake.  

Brazil also has the largest gross domestic product in South America. 

State of play: Most polls heading into Sunday give Lula a very slight advantage. 

But polls for the first round underestimated support for Bolsonaro, so it “will possibly be the closest race we’ve ever seen,” says Gustavo Ribeiro, journalist and analyst for The Brazilian Report. Lula won 48% of the vote in the first round, while Bolsonaro got 43%.

Polls have tightened coming into the runoff. Analysts say that's in large part due to disinformation, misinformation and political polarization. 

The big picture: Bolsonaro has repeatedly claimed without evidence that if he loses the election it will only be because of fraud, laying the groundwork for potentially denying the results.

But Brazil’s electronic voting system has been in place since 1996 with no proven claims of tampering.

Some experts fear violence will break out if Bolsonaro doesn't win. “If he loses, the risks are in how he will react,” Ribeiro says, adding that Bolsonaro could push for an uprising similar to the Jan. 6 insurrection in the U.S.

A Bolsonaro ally was arrested last week after threatening a Supreme Court judge and throwing grenades at police.

Researchers from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro say reports of politically motivated violence increased 110% from July to just before the first round vote on Oct. 2. 

What they’re saying: “This might be a sort of litmus test for the pursuit of democracy in Brazil,” Ribeiro says, adding that if Bolsonaro wins, the risk is a “backslide” to a less democratic country. 

Bolsonaro has praised the last Brazilian dictatorship, attacked the news media and undermined the nation’s Supreme Court. 

Lula is “flawed” but respects democracy, Ribeiro adds.

Flashback: Bolsonaro came to power in part because Lula was banned from running, due to corruption convictions which have since been thrown out, Axios' Dave Lawler writes. 

Bolsonaro's tenure has been defined by the pandemic, which devastated Brazil, and his constant fanning of culture wars.

While many voters have fond memories of Lula's tenure, which coincided with a commodities boom, he and his Workers' Party are nearly as polarizing as Bolsonaro.

Lula's platform is based less on specific policies than a promise that the good times will return. 

Subscribe to Axios Latino to get vital news about Latinos and Latin America, delivered to your inbox on Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional details. 

Lula vs. Bolsonaro: Brazilians vote in nail-biter presidential runoff

Brazil's democracy — just over three decades old — is at stake, experts say.

a person pins up a Brazil flag near banners for presidential candidates Jair Bolosonaro Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva

Merchandise for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro is sold in Brazil this week. Photo: Douglas Magno/AFP via Getty Images

Brazil

Latin America and Latinos

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

After firing much of Twitter's senior management team, Elon Musk now plans to cut up to 30% of staff in certain departments, beginning this weekend, sources told Axios. 

Why it matters: Musk's breakneck pace shows his determination to reshape Twitter's organization but could also result in chaos inside the company. 

Driving the news:  Cuts are expected to be made ahead of November 1, when most employees' quarterly grants of stock options are scheduled to vest.

Last week, Musk fired four of Twitter's top execs, including CEO Parag Agrawal, CFO Ned Segal, general counsel Sean Edgett and policy chief Vijaya Gadde. 

Reports suggest those executives were fired "for cause," which could allow Musk to avoid large payouts in cash and stock. 

Details: The layoffs are slated to begin this weekend, and it will be "a bloodbath — like 15-30%+" in the product organization, one source said. 

Ross Gerber, an investor, told The New York Times that he was told by the head of Musk's family office to expect up to 50% layoffs. 

Inside Twitter, sources dispute that number. "You wouldn’t be able to operate the company down 50% HC (head count)," one source said. After the layoffs, the source noted, 10-15% of remaining employees could likely leave due to the workload.

Director-level staff and above are being asked to make lists of which employees to let go or who should be saved in their departments, one source said. 

It's not clear, even to those senior staffers, if their jobs will remain after they choose who should get cut and who should stay. 

Sweeping layoffs are expected across the company with differing levels of cuts for organizations or teams. 

"I think folks are bracing for a black Monday, but the question is where will the majority of the cuts be," one source said. 

Cuts are expected to be particularly brutal on the product side, with engineering managers and product managers getting severely trimmed, per one source. Marketing is another area that's seen internally as somewhat bloated and could be targeted for steeper cuts. 

Employees ties to revenue could be spared. While Musk plans to add more subscription revenue to Twitter's top line, he does recognize the value of commercial partners, which is why he made an overture to advertisers last week. U.S. sales account for more than half of all revenue at Twitter. 

The mood inside Twitter is a combination of exhaustion, anger and helplessness. 

"Most people seem to think they lack empathy," one Twitter employee said of the cuts. 

One point of frustration is the public excitement coming from Elon Musk's inner circle even as layoffs loom. One employee pointed to a tweet from Musk ally who Jason Calacanis, who tweeted Saturday, "Day Zero LFG! ☕️ 🐦."

Outside of the engineering department, where Musk and his team seem to have spent the most time evaluating talent, employees feel mostly in the dark. 

"Zero email. Zero slack. Zero internal comms from any of the new regime," one source said. They're still learning about what's happening on Twitter or through news reports. 

Twitter's communications team didn't respond to a request for comment. 

Be smart: Sources say Musk and his team have a pretty good understanding of why they’re cutting certain organizations, teams, and leaders — at least on the product side — because they have been meeting with senior product leaders and observing the work of engineers for the past few weeks. 

"It's going to be a bloodbath": Twitter workers brace for cuts

Musk's breakneck pace shows his determination to reshape the company, but could lead to chaos.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

GOP reaches deeper into Biden-land

Elon Musk tweets misinformation about Paul Pelosi

Lula vs. Bolsonaro: Brazilians vote in nail-biter presidential runoff

"It's going to be a bloodbath": Twitter workers brace for cuts

Ronna McDaniel: "Unfair" to blame GOP rhetoric for Paul Pelosi attack

Everything we know about the Halloween crowd surge in South Korea

Musk brings in allies to start making changes at Twitter

Putin's invasion permanently weakened Russian oil and gas

Pelosi says she and family are "heartbroken" by attack on Paul Pelosi

The rules have changed around handwritten "thank you" cards

Map: The rules for mail-in voting across the U.S.