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National

"Instead of forgiveness, there will be judgment," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video shared on the last Sunday before Lent.

Driving the news: “Today is Forgiveness Sunday. But we cannot forgive the hundreds upon hundreds of victims. Nor the thousands upon thousands who have suffered," according the latest video that the leader posted to his Telegram account on Sunday night local time. "God will not forgive. Not today. Not tomorrow. Never." 

"Today, a family of four, parents and two children, were killed in Irpin as they were trying to leave the city," Zelensky said. "We will not forgive. We will not forget."

The latest: The outskirts of Kyiv, the second largest city of Kharkiv, Chernihiv in the north and Mykolaiv in the south came under heavy shelling later in the day on Sunday local time, Zelensky adviser Oleksiy Arestovich said on Ukrainian television.

“The latest wave of missile strikes came as darkness fell,” Arestovich said. 

The planned evacuation of civilians on Sunday from the Ukrainian coastal city of Mariupol was canceled for the second time after Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of violating of a limited ceasefire agreement, the New York Times reported. 

The International Atomic Energy Agency warned on Sunday that Russian forces have placed the staff at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power station under their direct command and are requiring any actions taken by plant management to be pre-approved by the Russian commander.

 They have also taken steps to restrict the staff's ability to ability to communicate with the outside world.

N0-fly calls increase: Zelensky in a video posted earlier on Sunday repeated his call for a no-fly zone over Ukraine: "If you do not do that, if you at least do not give us aircraft for us to be able to protect ourselves, there can only be one conclusion: You want us to be slowly killed." 

"We are people and it is your humanitarian duty to protect us," he added. 

Western leaders have repeatedly ruled out imposing a no-fly zone, saying it will drastically escalate the situation and threatens to directly draw NATO forces into a conventional war with a nuclear power. 

Russian separatist forces, meanwhile, have accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire agreement, per Reuters. 

In the absence of a no-fly zone, the U.S. is looking at ways that it can help facilitate the supply of fighter jets to Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS' "Face the Nation" on Sunday.

A proposed deal that would have seen former Eastern Bloc countries in the EU deliver Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine fell apart earlier this month.

Putin on Saturday said that Moscow will consider any declaration of Ukraine as a no-fly zone to be "participation in the armed conflict."

"That very second, we will view them as participants of the military conflict, and it would not matter what members they are," Putin said.

The big picture: A third round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine will be held on Monday, Ukraine's chief negotiator posted on Facebook Saturday.

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone for nearly two hours with Putin on Sunday, Reuters reported. The French president urged his Russian counterpart to guarantee the continued protection and security of Ukraine's nuclear sites.

Ukraine will present its case before the International Criminal Court on Monday. Russia will be given the chance to respond on Tuesday.

ICC prosecutor Karim Khan said on March 2 that he would immediately launch an investigation into allegations of war crimes, crimes against humanity or genocide committed in Ukraine. 

Blinken told CNN from Moldova on Sunday: "[W]e’ve seen very credible reports of deliberate attacks on civilians, which would constitute a war crime."

The Secretary of State said it was documenting the evidence to help support "the appropriate organizations and institutions" investigating the matter, like the International Criminal Court.

Zoom out: President Biden’s advisers are discussing a possible visit to Saudi Arabia this spring to help repair relations and convince the Kingdom to pump more oil, Axios' Hans Nichols has learned.

The U.S. is also working with its European allies to look into the possibility of banning Russian oil imports, Blinken said during an appearance Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." 

The announcement comes as bipartisan momentum builds in Congress.

"The people in my state of West Virginia, believe it's basically foolish for us to keep buying products and giving profit and giving money to Putin to be able to use against the Ukrainian people," Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said on Sunday during an appearance on NBC's "Meet the Press."

"Why wouldn't we lead? Why wouldn't we show the resolve we have? I understand there's more dependency in the world. But you know, here's the problem, we have the ability to ratchet up and be able to backfill," said the West Virginia Democrat who cosponsored legislation along with Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) that would lean on domestic drilling.

In addition to cutting off Russian imports, Manchin in particular has been advocating for more domestic oil and gas production as a way to reduce the country's reliance on other countries, per Axios' Andrew Freedman. Since the war in Ukraine began, the oil and gas industry has been advocating that the administration take certain steps to boost production.

However, U.S. crude oil production is projected to hit a full-year record high in 2023, despite the Biden administration's policies to try to transition toward a clean energy economy. 

Manchin plans to hold a hearing in the Senate Energy Committee, which he chairs, this week on the links between energy production and national security.

Zelensky says "God will not forgive" as Russian shelling increases across Ukraine

“Today is Forgiveness Sunday. But we cannot forgive the hundreds upon hundreds of victims."

Photo: Laurent Van der Stockt for Le Monde/Getty Images

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett spoke on Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and continued his efforts to promote a cease-fire.

Why it matters: Bennett’s overtures are part of a wider effort that includes French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. The three leaders are coordinating their outreach to Putin and Zelensky.

Driving the news: Bennett visited Moscow on Saturday and met Putin in the Kremlin. He was the only Western leader to do so since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Before departing Moscow on Saturday, Bennett called Zelensky and briefed him on the meeting.

Bennett traveled from Moscow to Berlin and met with Scholz to update him on the meeting with Putin. On his way to the airport in Berlin before flying back to Israel, Bennett spoke to Macron and had another call with Zelensky.

On Sunday morning, Bennett spoke again to Zelensky. This was their third call in less than 15 hours. On Sunday afternoon, he spoke again with Putin. After the call with Putin, Bennett again called Macron and Scholz.

Israeli, German and French officials who Axios spoke with declined to give any details about the content of this flurry of phone calls and engagements between their leaders and Putin and Zelensky.

What they are saying: During a cabinet meeting on Sunday, Bennett said he went to Moscow to assist the dialogue between all sides. He stressed he got the blessing and encouragement of all players involved.

“I cannot go into greater detail. We will continue to assist as needed. Even if the chance is not great — as soon as there is even a small opening, and we have access to all sides and the capability — I see this as our moral obligation to make every effort,” said the prime minister.

What’s next: Bennett is keeping the Biden administration informed of his talks with Putin and Zelensky. His national security adviser, Eyal Hulata, spoke by phone on Saturday and on Sunday with U.S. counterpart Jake Sullivan to brief him, Israeli officials told Axios.

Israel’s foreign minister will meet Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Latvia on Monday. Israeli officials said the reason for the meeting is to coordinate positions with the U.S. regarding the cease-fire efforts.

Israeli leader meets Putin to discuss Ukraine cease-fire

Israeli leader holds multiple calls on Ukraine cease-fire with Zelensky and Putin

Bennett’s overtures are part of a wider effort that includes French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, right, speaks with Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett during their meeting, in Sochi, on Oct. 22 2021. Photo: Yevgeny Biyatov/Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images

A comprehensive new United Nations-sponsored assessment of climate change finds that global warming is reshaping the world more rapidly and severely than was known several years ago. 

Why it matters: The report finds that climate change is affecting every person's physical and mental health, and classifies nearly half of the global population as being "highly vulnerable" to climate impacts. 

Importantly, the report — part of the biggest update to climate science findings since 2014 — concludes it is no longer possible to fully adapt to some global warming impacts.

It says irreversible losses are occurring among some warm water coral reefs, coastal wetlands and some rain forests. 

The international authors of the report note that once ecosystems reach their hard limits, people will be directly affected as they lose the benefits these natural systems provide.

Driving the news: The report from the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most thorough look yet at the impacts of climate change and how communities can best adapt to these changes.

It contains stark findings, including that warming is already contributing to humanitarian crises, and will increasingly imperil food security.

U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres described the report in a statement as an "Atlas of human suffering."

"Nearly half of humanity is living in the danger zone — now. Many ecosystems are at the point of no return — now," he said.

Zoom in: The report notes that we are past the point where "minor, marginal, reactive or incremental changes" will adequately prepare society for the climate impacts that are in store. Instead, it calls for larger-scale shifts "in most aspects of society" to reduce climate risks and enhance resilience, among other goals. 

The report warns that climate change impacts will occur simultaneously, magnifying their effects in ways that may be hard to predict. 

Yes, but: The report is not all doom and gloom. It repeatedly emphasizes that if society takes steps to limit warming to 1.5°C, it would prevent many, though not all, of the worst impacts.

However, even then, some changes may be irreversible — such as Arctic permafrost melt and glacier loss. 

The report provides blueprints for possible adaptation strategies. For example, it says, residents of a coastal community could implement measures to combat sea level rise, ranging from an early warning system for flooding events to raising the height of roads and homes along the water's edge.

Threat level: The new report clearly states that greater impacts of climate change will occur at lower levels of warming than previously thought, based in part on trends seen to date with just 1.1°C of warming since the preindustrial era. 

Scientists are already seeing highly consequential extreme weather events and marine heat waves, along with entire species dying off on land and sea.

"1.1 degrees is way more dangerous than we thought it was," Erin Coughlan de Perez, a senior adviser to the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center, told Axios.

The report finds that just as climate change has adversely affected physical health worldwide, it's also taking a toll on mental health. 

The mental health consequences are mainly coming from trauma related to extreme weather and climate events, such as wildfires, and loss of livelihoods and culture. 

The report notes that poorer societies with less robust infrastructure have been suffering more than the rest of the world.

Between 2010 and 2020, the report found that deaths from floods, droughts and storms were 15 times higher in highly vulnerable regions — which tend to be in poorer, developing nations —compared to regions with very low vulnerability.

Between the lines: Emerging research in the report also warns against allowing warming to overshoot the 1.5°C temperature target that is baked into many of the scenarios for how the world shifts to clean energy. 

Scenarios that quickly bring temperatures back down by rapidly and significantly cutting greenhouse gas emissions would be associated with lower risks of triggering irreversible impacts.

The report also warns of the possibility of speeding up global warming during overshoot by melting permafrost, which releases methane and carbon dioxide, further warming the planet.

"You pass 1.5 and you come back, you've lost things that you will never get back," Coughlan de Perez said. Examples could include mountain glaciers, which are hard to stop melting once it begins. 

Sarah Cooley, director of climate science at the Ocean Conservancy and a contributor to the IPCC report, said marine kelp forests are likely to die off during overshoot, and irreversible changes could occur in other marine ecosystems. 

What they're saying: According to Cooley, the typical reaction of the global community to IPCC reports, which come out every six or seven years, is to "hit the snooze button."

"I think this report is when the parent screams up the stairs, "It's time to get out of bed or you're going to miss the bus,"" she told Axios. "We are really able to zero in now on the choices that are being foreclosed if we delay further." 

Editor's note: This story originally published on Feb. 28. 

UN report: Climate change is so severe we're running out of time to adapt

The report finds that climate change is affecting every person's physical and mental health.

A woman looks at rising waters in Queensland, Australia.

Floodwaters rise in Australia on Saturday. Photo: Patrick Hamilton/AFP via Getty Images

Climate change

Extreme weather

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

Hill Leaders

Axios Hill Leaders

President Biden’s advisers are discussing a possible visit to Saudi Arabia this spring to help repair relations and convince the Kingdom to pump more oil, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: A hat-in-hand trip would illustrate the gravity of the global energy crisis driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Biden has chastised Saudi Arabia, and the CIA believes its de facto leader, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, was involved in the dismemberment of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi.

The possibility also shows how Russia's invasion is scrambling world's alliances, forcing the U.S. to reorder its priorities — and potentially recalibrating its emphasis on human rights.

Biden officials are in Venezuela this weekend to meet with the government of President Nicolás Maduro. Some Republicans and Democrats in Washington suggest Venezuela's oil could replace Russia's, according to the New York Times.

Any visit to the Persian Gulf would come amid a busy presidential travel schedule during the next few months.

Biden will likely take trips to Japan, Spain, Germany and, potentially, Israel, Axios has also learned.

What they're saying: A White House spokesperson told Axios: “We don’t have any international travel to announce at this time, and a lot of this is premature speculation.”

Zoom out: President Obama visited Saudi Arabia more often than any of his predecessors, a total of four trips, but relations frayed over the wars in Yemen and Syria, as well as differences about how to deal with Iran.

President Trump made restoring the relationship a priority, and boasted about arms sales to the Kingdom.

He questioned the CIA's conclusion bin Salman was involved in Khashoggi's murder and defiantly refused to condemn him. "Maybe he did and maybe he didn’t!” Trump wrote on Twitter.

During the 2020 campaign, Biden called the Kingdom a "pariah," and early in his term, released an unclassified report assessing MBS approved the operation to "capture or kill"  Khashoggi.

Zoom in: Bin Salman isn't making it easier on Biden to repair their relations.

He appeared to go out of his way to aggravate the White House during an interview with the Atlantic published last week.

“We don’t have the right to lecture you in America,” he said. “The same goes the other way.”

Between the lines: Sanctions against Russia's oil exports — including a possible ban on importing Russian oil into the U.S. — would both elevate worldwide gas prices and stoke domestic inflation.

Scoop: Biden advisers weigh Saudi Arabia trip for more oil

A hat-in-hand trip would illustrate the gravity of the global energy crisis driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Zelensky says "God will not forgive" as Russian shelling increases across Ukraine

Israeli leader holds multiple calls on Ukraine cease-fire with Zelensky and Putin

UN report: Climate change is so severe we're running out of time to adapt

Scoop: Biden advisers weigh Saudi Arabia trip for more oil

U.S. in talks to supply Ukraine with fighter jets, Blinken says

Blinken: U.S. has seen "very credible" reports of war crimes in Ukraine

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