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National

The first southern U.S. state is picking a 2020 Democratic presidential nominee on Saturday, as South Carolina voters line up at polls open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. EST. 

Why it matters, via Axios' Fadel Allassan: 61% of South Carolina's Democrats are black, and Saturday's primary is the first major test of African-American support for the candidates.

Pete Buttigieg attends a canvass kick-off event in Columbia, South Carolina on Feb. 29. Photo: Reuters/Eric Thayer

People walk past a polling station on February 29 in Charleston, S.C.

People walk past a polling station on Feb. 29 in Charleston, South Carolina. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

A woman checks in with a poll worker before joining other voters at Mary Ford Elementary School in North Charleston, South Carolina on Feb. 29. Photo: Joshua Lott/AFP via Getty Images

In this image, a man and a woman sit in bleachers in a stadium

A campaign event for former Vice President Joe Biden at Wofford University on Feb. 28. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

In this image, a man and a woman hold hands.

A couple watch President Trump in an overflow lot during his Feb. 28 Keep America Great rally in North Charleston, South Carolina. Photo: Joshua Lott/AFP via Getty Images

In this image, a man stands outside a door.

A voter exits a polling station at Mary Ford Elementary School in North Charleston, South Carolina, on Feb. 29. Photo: Joshua Lott/AFP via Getty Images

In this image, two women hand papers to another woman sitting at a table

Voters on Feb. 29 in Charleston, South Carolina. Photo: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

In this image, voting booths are set up on plastic tables in a fire engine parking garage

Voters on Feb. 29 in Columbia, South Carolina. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

In this image, a woman votes while her son stands nearby

A voter at the Charleston County Housing and Redevelopment Authority in Charleston, South Carolina on Feb. 29. Photo: Joshua Lott/AFP via Getty Images

In this image, voters stand in front of formica tables

Voters at the Charleston County Housing and Redevelopment Authority in Charleston, South Carolina on Feb. 29. Photo: Joshua Lott/AFP via Getty Images

Go deeper: Biden bets it all on South Carolina

In photos: South Carolina casts its vote for the Democratic nominee

Saturday's primary is the first major test of African-American support for the 2020 candidates.

In this image, Pete Buttigieg wears a white dress shirt and reaches for a crowd of supporters

Former Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg greets supporters on Feb. 28. Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Politics

South Carolina Primary

2020 election

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court's earlier injunction on Friday, temporarily stopping the Trump administration from enforcing the Migrant Protection Protocols (MPP), only to be reinstated a couple of hours later, AP reports.

The state of play: After the court's initial ruling, the judges granted the Trump administration's request for an emergency stay just hours later, per The Washington Post. The Department of Justice argued there could be an influx of migrants who reach the border since 25,000 migrants have been ­waiting in Mexico, endangering national security.

Why it matters: Tens of thousands of migrants seeking asylum have been forced to wait out their U.S. immigration court cases across the border in Mexico under the policy, also known as the "Remain in Mexico" policy. The Trump administration has long credited this program for the decline in border crossings following record highs last summer. 

The court also upheld an injunction — already in place — blocking the administration from implementing a presidential proclamation that would disqualify from asylum any immigrant who crosses the southern border illegally.

What to watch: It's unclear what will happen to the nearly 60,000 migrants who have already been impacted by MPP.

Immigration officials have already begun relying on other programs that allow them to rapidly deport asylum seekers who passed through another country to get to the U.S., according to Migration Policy Institute's Sarah Pierce. "This will very likely drastically increase that transition," Pierce tweeted. 

While other factors have contributed to the decline in border crossings, "the timing couldn’t be much worse for the Administration," former ICE director John Sandweg told Axios in an email. "If this decision is going to trigger increased flows at the border, the coming months are the time of year when you would expect to see a spike in the numbers."

Federal court temporarily halts "Remain in Mexico" program, then grants emergency stay

Tens of thousands of migrants seeking asylum have been forced to wait.

A teenage migrant stands on a bridge with a blurred sign in the background which says "welcome to Mexico" in spanish. 

Migrant wearing a cap with U.S. flagin front of the border between Guatemala and Mexico. Photo: Jair Cabrera Torres/picture alliance via Getty Image

Immigration

South Carolina Democrats cast ballots today, the first in the South, toward picking the party's presidential nominee.  

Why it matters: 61% of South Carolina's Democrats are black, and Saturday's primary is the first major test of African-American support for the candidates. 

Details: Polls are opened from 7:00 a.m. to 7:00 p.m EST, and anyone in line at 7:00 p.m. will be allowed to vote. 

The state's Republican Party passed on a primary, in support of President Trump.  

On the ballot: Former Vice President Joe Biden, former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Sens. Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and businessman Tom Steyer.

Sens. Michael Bennet and Cory Booker, former Rep. John K. Delaney, former Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and businessman Andrew Yang have withdrawn from the race, but their names will still appear on the ballot.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg will not be, however. He is focusing instead on the Super Tuesday contests, coming up on March 3. 

Write-in votes are not permitted in South Carolina's primary.

At stake: 63 delegates. Most will be assigned proportionally by congressional districts to candidates who win at least 15% of the state vote. 

Where they stand, per FiveThirtyEight's poll average in South Carolina:  

The state of play: Biden is the front-runner in South Carolina, and he needs an overwhelming win to continue his campaign. 

But a strong showing from Sanders could indicate how his appeal in the state has grown since 2016, when only about 14% of black voters backed him and 86% went for Hillary Clinton.

Steyer has a $13.3-million bet riding on a strong showing in South Carolina. He's hoping the heavy spending and his focus on racial issues and climate change resonates with voters and allows him to stay in the race.

For the record: The candidates have spent nearly $20 million on advertising in South Carolina, per FiveThirtyEight. 

What to know about the South Carolina Democratic primary

This is the first major test of support from African-American voters.

Campaign signs for Joe Biden and Tom Steyer sit in the same street corner in North Charleston, S.C.

A bicyclist rides pass campaign signs for Democratic presidential candidates Joe Biden and Tom Steyer the day before the primary in North Charleston, S.C. Photo: Joshua Lott / AFP via Getty Images

On the next episode of “Axios on HBO,” Alexi McCammond sits down for an in-depth interview with Harvey Weinstein prosecutor Cyrus Vance Jr., who discusses Weinstein’s conviction and how it could impact future sex crime cases.

AXIOS on HBO: Manhattan District Attorney Cyrus R. Vance (Promo) | HBO

Preview: “Axios on HBO” interviews Weinstein Prosecutor Cyrus Vance Jr.

Who discusses Weinstein’s conviction and how it could impact future sex crime cases.

Axios on HBO

The U.S. has signed a deal with the Taliban aimed at ending its war in Afghanistan after 18 years, starting with the withdrawal of around 4,000 troops "within months."

Why it matters: America has wanted out of Afghanistan for at least a decade. The deal signed in Doha should finally accomplish that — but peace for Afghanistan remains far from secure.

What to watch: As the U.S. begins to pull troops out, the Taliban has agreed to prevent terror groups from filling the void and to enter negotiations with the Afghan government.

The first hurdle for those sides to clear is a prisoner swap, involving some 5,000 Taliban prisoners and 1,000 Afghan troops.

They must also agree on Afghanistan's political future. 

It's unclear whether the current "reduction in violence" will hold throughout those negotiations.

It's also uncertain what will happen to the protections the U.S. has helped guarantee for minorities and women, including access to education, after American troops are gone.

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who was on hand in Doha, said "the future of Afghanistan is for Afghans to determine," adding that the agreement "creates the conditions" for peace but would be worthless absent "concrete action on commitments stated."

Sher Mohammad Abas Stanekzai, the Taliban's deputy negotiator, called today a "day of victory." The group's multimedia chief celebrated "the defeat of the arrogance of the White House in the face of the white turban," per the NYT.

President Trump said he expected U.S. troops to start leaving Afghanistan on Saturday. "I'll be meeting personally with Taliban leaders in the not too distant future, and we'll be very much hoping that they will be doing what they say they're going to be doing," Trump said in a White House briefing on Saturday. "They will be killing terrorists, they will be killing some very bad people. ... We've had tremendous success in Afghanistan in the killing of terrorists ... but now it's time for somebody else to do that work, and that will be the Taliban, or it could be surrounding countries." 

The other side: "Signing this agreement with Taliban is an unacceptable risk to America's civilian population," former national security adviser John Bolton tweeted Saturday. "This is an Obama-style deal. Legitimizing Taliban sends the wrong signal to ISIS and al Qaeda terrorists, and to America's enemies generally."


How it happened: Negotiations began in September 2018, led by veteran U.S. diplomat Zalmay Khalilzad.

The Afghan government bristled at their exclusion, but the Taliban would negotiate first only with the U.S.

A deal was almost reached last fall, complete with a ceremony at Camp David, but collapsed after the Taliban killed a U.S. soldier.

The current deal sets a timeline for U.S. withdrawal, first to 8,600 troops and then to zero within 14 months. That timeline might not hold up depending on events on the ground.

The big picture: Since the American invasion in the wake of 9/11, 3,500 U.S. and allied troops have been killed, tens of thousands of Afghans have lost their lives, and the U.S. has spent $2 trillion.

Polls suggest most Americans tend to consider the war a failure.

U.S. reaches "huge milestone moment" in Afghanistan peace process

But peace for Afghanistan remains far from secure.

 US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad (L) and Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar

U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad (L) and Taliban co-founder Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (R) sign a peace agreement between U.S., Taliban, in Doha, Qatar on Feb. 29. Photo: Anadolu Agency / Getty Images

World

Afghanistan

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Capital

Axios Capital

The stock market is heading south with unprecedented velocity amid coronavirus fears. Does that mean it's crashing? Are we in a recession? Is this a financial crisis? 

A stock-market crash happens when the market plunges suddenly, often for no particular reason. 

The stock market might be down 13% from its highs, but that decline took place over more than a week. 

Crashes can cause investors to lose a lot of money very quickly, but seldom have a big effect on the economy as a whole. 

A recession is what happens when the broader economy stops growing and starts shrinking.  

The official designation of when a recession started and ended comes many months later from the National Bureau of Economic Research, a nonpartisan nonprofit.

A financial crisis will normally cause a recession. But while a recession takes place across the economy, a financial crisis is centered on the financial system, especially banks. 

In a financial crisis, fears of widespread defaults on bonds and loans spark worries that a country's entire banking system might be insolvent. 

Unless the government steps in, often with a bank bailout, the economy can rapidly spiral into a full-fledged depression. 

Where are we now? Stocks are down, but it's a relatively orderly (if fast) decline, without a lot of panic selling. Financial analyst Josh Brown calls it "Panic Holding." 

Because we're more than 10% below the all-time highs, this is a "correction."

If we go down to 20% below the all-time highs, it will officially be a "bear market." 

Context: The market is still about 30% higher than it was when Trump took office.

What about the Fed? The Fed's job is to prevent a recession, and it should only care about the stock market insofar as it impacts the broader economy. 

On Friday, the Fed made the rare move of issuing a statement during trading hours saying it was "closely monitoring developments" on the coronavirus.

"We will use our tools and act as appropriate to support the economy."

Don't panic about the stock market

Don't panic: A primer on markets, recessions and financial crises

Axios

Saturday's top stories

In photos: South Carolina casts its vote for the Democratic nominee

Federal court temporarily halts "Remain in Mexico" program, then grants emergency stay

What to know about the South Carolina Democratic primary

Preview: “Axios on HBO” interviews Weinstein Prosecutor Cyrus Vance Jr.

U.S. reaches "huge milestone moment" in Afghanistan peace process

Don't panic about the stock market

Bernie Sanders' big socialism rebrand

The next frontier for Big Science

Biden bets it all on South Carolina

California coronavirus: Latest case has no recent history of international travel

Big video game conference delayed amid coronavirus concerns