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National

The Securities and Exchange Commission has asked a federal judge to hold Tesla CEO Elon Musk in contempt for violating a settlement reached last year with the agency.

Details: The SEC claims Musk violated the settlement when he wrote in a Feb. 19 tweet: "Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019." The commission wrote in court papers: "[Musk] once again published inaccurate and material information about Tesla to his over 24 million Twitter followers, including members of the press, and made this inaccurate information available to anyone with Internet access."

Our thought bubble: Musk has made it abundantly clear that he respects neither the SEC nor the accord he signed with the agency. His inability to comply with the terms of the deal came as no surprise — and neither does the SEC’s response.

SEC asks judge to hold Elon Musk in contempt

The agency alleges Musk violated the settlement with a Feb. 19 tweet.

Elon Musk. Photo: Joshua Lott/Getty Images

Business

Elon Musk

Technology

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

The three words to watch at President Trump's pair of summits over the next month: verifiable, measurable and enforceable.

Driving the news: Trump is on his way to Vietnam, where he'll meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. He'll then host Chinese President Xi Jinping at Mar-a-Lago sometime in March. On Monday, he teased a "signing summit" with Xi, saying negotiators are "getting very, very close."

The big picture: It’s hard to find anyone in government who believes North Korea or China are willing to make the dramatic shifts Trump believes he can bring about — complete denuclearization for North Korea and immense structural changes for China.

China’s leaders are masters at playing the Americans. They’ve done so over multiple administrations — and they don’t even acknowledge that they steal U.S. intellectual property on a vast, state-sponsored scale.

Xi remains committed to his "Made in China 2025" advanced manufacturing strategy to give Chinese high-tech companies advantages over American ones and would, if successful, prevent Trump from achieving his trade goals.

A source close to the negotiations described the debate with the Chinese over the important "structural" issues as a "death march."

North Korea’s leaders are even craftier than the Chinese negotiators. "No one has played [a hand of] two 2s better than they have," said a former senior U.S. official with extensive experience negotiating with North Korea.

The Trump team hopes to get a roadmap to denuclearization from this week's Hanoi summit, but Kim doesn't appear to have even made the basic decision to denuclearize. 

The bottom line: Whatever wins Trump may tout in his post-summit rhetoric, check the fine print.

Trump's grand bargains

Both countries' leaders are masters at playing the Americans.

Illustration of Xi Jinping, Donald Trump, and Kim Jong-un being examined by a large magnifying glass.

Politics

Donald Trump

World

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who led the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiations, resigned Monday via Instagram, Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed. Per NBC News, it is unclear if Iranian President Hassan Rouhani or Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will accept the resignation.

Why it matters: Zarif's resignation comes eight months after President Trump announced that the U.S. would withdraw from the nuclear deal and less than a week after the UN's nuclear watchdog assessed that Iran is still in compliance with the terms of the deal. The other parties to the 2015 agreement — which include the U.S.' European allies, China and Russia — have remained committed to salvaging the deal, despite the Trump administration's re-introduction of sanctions against the Iranian regime.

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announces resignation

Zarif led the 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiations.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif. Photo: Emmanuele Contini/NurPhoto via Getty Images

Iran deal

Iran

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

With Wall Street analysts anticipating a possible earnings recession in 2019, Goldman Sachs' economic research team estimates that this could, but is unlikely to, lead to an actual recession.

Why it matters: The forecast 10% decline in profits lowers GDP growth by 0.6 percentage points, Goldman's analysts note, and if earnings growth were to slow to 15 percentage points it could knock a full 1% off of first quarter GDP, now projected to slow from 2018's pace.

But, but, but: Analysts listed 4 key reasons not to expect a recession this year:

Historical correlation between earnings and economic recessions is not very tight — 13 of the 22 S&P 500 earnings recessions were not followed by a recession within 2 years.

Lower corporate tax rates contributed nearly half of the roughly 20% growth in S&P 500 earnings in 2018. Much of the profit slowdown reflects the well-anticipated fading of this one-off factor, with minimal growth effects.

The Fed's U-turn on raising rates has unwound much of the financial conditions tightening seen in the fourth quarter.

The impact of higher labor costs will be offset in part by cheaper oil. Faster wage growth statistically raises capex growth as firms substitute capital for labor. Cheaper oil and higher wages should also support consumption.

"Weaker profit growth is likely to weigh somewhat further on economic activity but does not indicate an impending economic recession," Jan Hatzius, and Goldman's research team said in a note to clients.

Goldman: Earnings recession doesn't equal economic recession

Analysts listed 4 key reasons not to expect a recession this year.

Goldman Sachs

Warren Buffett told CNBC on Monday that the wealthy are "definitely undertaxed" compared to the rest of the U.S. population, advocating an income tax credit as "the best way" to address the issue.

Details: Buffett also admitted that Berkshire Hathaway overpaid for its stake in Kraft Heinz, which saw its stock implode last week after terrible earnings results. He told CNBC, "It's still a wonderful business in that it uses about $7 billion of tangible assets and earns $6 billion pretax on that. But we, and certain predecessors, we paid $100 billion in tangible assets. So for us, it has to earn $107 billion, not just the $7 billion that the business employs."

Warren Buffett says the wealthy are "definitely undertaxed"

“That probably means more taxes for guys like me, and I’m fine with it."

Warren Buffett. Photo: Lacy O'Toole/CNBC/NBCU Photo Bank via Getty Images

Warren Buffett

The absence of inflation is forcing a wide-ranging rethink of long-held economic assumptions.

Driving the news: In his annual letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett admits that though he regularly preached "doom because of government budget deficits" he is no longer in that camp. And former IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard argued in a speech that for countries like the U.S., high public debt isn't necessarily a problem.

The state of play: As the New York Times' Neil Irwin points out, politicians also are quickly joining the deficits-don't-matter club.

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) recently indicated openness to "modern monetary theory," the idea that deficits don't matter for countries that can print their own money.

President Trump did not once mention the debt or budget deficits in this year's State of the Union address, nor did he mention it last year, despite expected annual shortfalls over $1 trillion.

What's happening: The debt has not mattered largely because inflation has been absent from the economic equation.

It's inflation that raises capital and labor costs for businesses, reduces available capital for investment and clogs government balance sheets, forcing other expenditures to be capped or scrapped. But over the past decade or so, inflation has been a non-factor, even after back-to-back years of above trend growth and government spending binges.

Economists have argued about the reasons, pointing at everything from the internet to the lack of unions to globalization to the way companies have invested their profits. But the end result remains the same.

What they're saying: "We've got inflation well under control here, and we don't need to be pre-emptive trying to control inflation going forward," St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said Friday.

In an interview the same day, Bullard elaborated, saying there has been a breakdown in the "Phillips curve," or the relationship between unemployment and inflation. "That's got people backing off the idea that there’s such a lockstep relationship between the real economy and inflation," Bullard said.

Further, officials at the Federal Reserve now are reconsidering the 2% inflation target that has been in effect since 2012.

Other central banks also are moving away from raising rates or slowing down stimulus as inflation has globally gone missing in developed markets like the Japan and Europe as well.

But, but, but: The ongoing crisis in Venezuela has shown that too much money chasing too few goods can still create problems. President Nicolás Maduro's money printing has led to an expected 10,000,000% inflation this year, undermining any attempts to stabilize the country's currency or its economy.

Go deeper: Warren Buffett argues government budget deficits don't matter

It's the inflation, stupid

It's causing some to wonder if national debt actually matters.

Inflation

Latin America and Latinos

Federal Reserve

Genetic testing companies that trace customers' ancestry are amassing huge databases of DNA information, and some are sharing access with law enforcement, drug makers and app developers. 

Why it matters: At-home DNA testing kits are soaring in popularity, but many consumers who take the tests to learn more about their family trees may not realize how that data is being shared for other purposes.

The big picture: What started out as a novelty for genealogists has gone mainstream. There are now more than 50 DNA-testing kit services on the market, estimates Carson Martinez, a health policy fellow at the Future of Privacy Forum. 

MIT Technology Review predicts more than 100 million people may be part of commercial genetic databases within the next two years. 

Amid controversies over internet companies' collection of personal data, millions are paying to hand over DNA samples to a largely unregulated industry. 

Some worry law enforcement, employers or insurance companies could end up using that DNA information against them.

Driving the news: This month FamilyTreeDNA came under fire for voluntarily giving the FBI routine access to its database of more than 1 million users' data, allowing agents to test DNA samples from crime scenes against customers' genetic information to look for family matches. 

FamilyTreeDNA apologized for not disclosing the agreement to consumers. The company told the NYT that users can disable the "matching" option to prevent their data from being visible. Ancestry.com and 23andMe say they require a warrant or subpoena before they consider turning over data to law enforcement.

It's not the first time genetic data has been used in cold cases. To catch the Golden State Killer last year, police detectives compared crime scene DNA against publicly available genetic data to identify the suspect. 

Drugmakers also want access. Ancestry.com and 23andMe — the largest companies that, combined, have DNA data of 15 million users — both share anonymized genetic data with outside researchers and companies.

Last summer, 23andMe struck a drug-development deal with GlaxoSmithKline, and it's working on developing its own line of drug treatments.

Ancestry has worked with Google spinoff Calico to study human longevity.

The companies say they obtain customers' "informed consent" — or explicit permission — before DNA is used in scientific or medical research.

Kathy Hibbs, 23andMe's chief legal and regulatory officer, said that assembling large aggregated datasets of human DNA can speed up drug development. The company says 80% of its customers opt in to research programs.

"It's not individual data that's interesting for research — it's the ability to look at large groups of people to see what's unique. It's the aggregate data, not individual data, that's meaningful."

A firm called Helix acts like an "app store" platform that gives third-party software developers access to parts of customers' DNA data for apps and personalized services that consumers opt into separately. Helix has partnerships with around 25 companies. Fitness and wellness apps are among the most popular, said Elissa Levin, Helix's senior director of clinical affairs and policy.

For example, weight-loss app Lose It integrates genetic information to tailor diet and exercise recommendations.

Helix analysts work closely with third parties to provide privacy guidelines, but does not dictate their policies, Levin said.

Personal DNA tests are used to help predict genetic risk factors for health complications. 23andMe offers FDA-approved genetic risk reports for inherited breast cancer and colorectal cancer. 

The results may allow customers to manage their own health, but can also lead to revelations that are surprising or alarming.

"We're encouraging companies to provide education to consumers about the risks and benefits and unintended consequences of the results," said John Verdi of the Future of Privacy Forum.

Reality check: Commercial DNA-testing services aren't specifically covered by federal privacy rules, such as HIPAA, because they aren't health providers or insurers.  

They are subject to the FTC's protections around privacy disclosures, as well as some FDA standards for how data is used in drug and medical device research. 

But protections can get murky when genomic data is used for human-subject medical research or for treatment, says Pamela Hepp, a health care attorney at Buchanan Ingersoll & Rooney specializing in data privacy.

For example, research using de-identified data in a clinical setting may not require participants' consent. But DNA data that is unique is arguably not capable of being fully de-identified and would still be personally identifiable, Hepp said. So use of such data — even if all identifying information is removed — may require consent, and it may even become part of your medical record. 

Last year, the Future of Privacy Forum worked with 8 leading DNA testing companies, including 23andMe, Ancestry and Helix, to establish best (but voluntary) practices for data use and security — as well as restrictions on marketing based on DNA data and allowing consumers to delete their data.

Yes, but: "Even if a consumer deletes their DNA information, that is only effective if the DNA hasn't already been shared," Hepp said. "This is new territory."

Also, "subsequent researchers may want to use genetic data for future investigations, making it difficult to keep participants abreast of the various uses of their genetic data," according to a paper published in the Mayo Clinic Proceedings journal last summer. 

The DNA services have grown popular without most consumers realizing that their data could be used for purposes other than genealogy, such as forensics, said Benjamin Berkman, a bioethicist at the National Institutes of Health, who wrote about ethical issues of using genealogy data to solve crimes in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

Not so long ago, serious concerns were raised about genetic research because of fears about potential discrimination by insurance companies and employers. In 2009, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act outlawed discrimination on the basis of genetic information.

"There's still a lot of evidence that people are concerned about those things," Berkman said. "But we are gradually moving away from the hyper-sensitivity to the private nature of genomic data." 

The bottom line: Read the fine print before uploading your genetic data, Berkman said, and use care when interpreting the results.

Consumer Reports explains how to delete your data from DNA testing sites

The NYT details how China uses DNA to track its citizens

AI can target specific genetic markers from massive genomics data sets, writes Eleonore Pauwels for Axios Expert Voices.

Editor's note: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that Ancestry shared data with pharmaceutical companies. 

Genetic testing firms share your DNA data more than you think

Genealogy tests have grown popular without most consumers realizing that their data could be used for other purposes.

Axios

Monday's top stories

SEC asks judge to hold Elon Musk in contempt

Trump's grand bargains

Iran's Foreign Minister Javad Zarif announces resignation

Goldman: Earnings recession doesn't equal economic recession

Warren Buffett says the wealthy are "definitely undertaxed"

It's the inflation, stupid

Genetic testing firms share your DNA data more than you think

Why (and how) I cover climate change

New poll finds "dramatic shift" on abortion attitudes

Concerns rise over Neomi Rao, Trump's D.C. Circuit nominee

Mr. Cohen goes to Washington

How Mike Pence wields foreign policy power

Inside Trump's Venezuela pivot