Axios

House Republicans blanched at the Pentagon's reported $200 billion price tag for Iran, but many are embracing the eye-popping number to help energize a stalled reconciliation process.

Why it matters: GOP leaders have struggled to build consensus around a "reconciliation 2.0" package. But injecting a must-pass defense spending bill into the equation will give Speaker Mike Johnson the urgency he needs to bring it to the floor.

The Iran war is driving markets down and energy prices up — and the duration and direction of the conflict will partially be determined by what takes place in a few key locations.

Why it matters: Escalating tensions could all shape how and when the war ends. Any attack or strategic move could push the war into a new phase.

Following strikes hitting military targets on Iran's Kharg Island last week, President Trump is escalating threats to take the island in an effort to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The big picture: Just 15 miles off Iran's coast, Kharg Island handles about 90% of the country's crude oil exports — and a direct hit on the export terminal would shut down most of that flow.

Nearly three weeks into the Iran war, the risk of sustained disruption to global energy supplies is getting worse, not better. That's raising the possibility of tighter money and higher borrowing costs worldwide.

The big picture: Global policymakers can't wave a magic monetary wand and fix a breakdown in the key supply chains for oil and natural gas. All they can do is try to contain the inflationary fallout.

• Financial markets on Thursday were waking up to that possibility — and repricing global assets accordingly.

If you ask energy historian Daniel Yergin, the Iran war "has been brewing for 47 years."

The big picture: Surging oil and gas prices tied to Middle East tensions will hang over a Houston gathering next week that is one of the global energy industry's biggest annual events.

Claros, a startup with tech that minimizes energy waste at data centers, closed a $30 million seed round co-led by General Catalyst and Red Cell Partners.

• New and existing investors including Systemiq Capital, Aero X Ventures, and Trenches Capital took part.

The Israeli military strike on Tehran's South Pars gas field facilities means the Iran war will likely extend into May, analysts said Wednesday.

The big picture: Oil prices jumped after Israeli forces' unprecedented strike on the gas field that Axios' Barak Ravid reported was conducted in coordination with and approved by the Trump administration. The global benchmark Brent crude was still hovering above $110 per barrel early Thursday.

A nearly 50% spike in wholesale vegetable prices in February is grabbing attention — but economists tell Axios it's likely a short-lived blip that may not meaningfully hit grocery bills.

Why it matters: Big swings in wholesale food prices can signal trouble ahead — but this looks like a temporary disruption, not a broader return of food inflation.

President Trump has formally waived requirements that only U.S. ships can carry cargo between domestic ports as officials look to ease access to fuel and supplies while the Strait of Hormuz remains throttled.

Why it matters: The White House is looking to pull multiple levers as the Iran war sends gasoline prices soaring and restricts access to goods needed by farmers and other industries.

Cocoon Carbon, a startup developing climate-friendly building materials, just closed a $15 million Series A round to support a large planned U.S. demonstration plant.

Why it matters: Cement used in concrete is a huge CO2 source. Cocoon sees a growing market for its substitutes — even as tackling climate change has lost clout in boardrooms and governments.