Fears of a food shock rise as midterms loom
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Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
It's not just oil: The Iran war is threatening to reignite food inflation — the price shock voters feel most directly — at the worst possible time for President Trump and Republicans.
Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz — paralyzed by Iranian threats and potentially mines — carries a third of the world's fertilizer. For many American farmers, spring planting season is just weeks away.
Threat level: The American Farm Bureau Federation warned in a letter to Trump this week that "supply chain shocks are expected to drive already record-high input prices even higher."
- Gulf states now menaced by war produce nearly 49% of the world's urea, a critical solid nitrogen fertilizer, and about 30% of its ammonia, according to AFBF.
- The U.S. also gets about 97% of its potassium from foreign sources, plus 18% of its nitrogen and 13% of its phosphate.
"Fertilizer's not an option to farmers — it's a critical input that determines the crop yield and ultimately the food supply for the American people," said AFBF president Zippy Duvall.
- "It's not just a farm issue — it's a food security issue and an economic issue for the entire country," Duvall added. "When farmers face supply shortages or price increases, those impacts ripple through the entire food chain."
Zoom out: Food inflation, driven in part by the disruption to grain exports from Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, weighed heavily on President Biden's approval ratings.
- Now a new war is threatening the same chain reaction: surging commodity prices, disrupted supply chains, higher grocery bills.
The timing is especially perilous for Trump, who campaigned explicitly on lowering grocery prices — but has faced criticism for not doing enough to address affordability concerns.
- Republicans are already defending a war many voters see as a betrayal. Spiking grocery bills would give Democrats another potent weapon.
The other side: The Trump administration "is supporting farmers through unprecedented international market access, lowered taxes, and improvements to the farm safety net," a U.S. Department of Agriculture spokesperson says.
- "President Trump is utilizing all the tools available to ensure farmers have what they need to continue their farming operations - emphasizing the long-term gains will far outweigh any short-term disruptions."
The bottom line: Higher prices at the pump have always been politically unpopular.
- Angering farmers and grocery shoppers at the same time could be especially toxic.
