Axios

Pressure is mounting on President Trump to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the world's largest emergency oil stockpile, as gas prices surge in response to the Iran war.

Why it matters: The stockpile sits near its lowest levels in decades, limiting the government's cushion if the conflict drags on.

The Iran conflict has a new economic front: oil topping $100 a barrel, with a near-immediate impact for drivers, travelers and grocery shoppers — while the benefits will flow more slowly to a handful of oil patch states.

Why it matters: Americans were already fed up with high prices. The effects of a widening conflict will ripple across the economy, with uncertainty about how high prices will rise and how long the surge will last.

The Iran war has cast a sharp spotlight on the global economy's reliance on the Strait of Hormuz.

Why it matters: The strait is a chokepoint for critical global commodities — and prices for oil, gas, plastics and fertilizers are already surging on fears of war-related disruptions.

No matter how long the current Middle East upheaval lasts, it could spark or accelerate lasting changes to global energy flows and policies.

Why it matters: Analysts are starting to look beyond the immediate market shock — which is indeed quite shocking.

The Trump administration's top energy official argued Sunday that fear — not supply shortages — is driving a historic surge in oil prices.

The big picture: The world is well-supplied with oil, but markets are reacting to real-world disruptions — a strangled Strait of Hormuz, halted production and strikes on fuel storage.

President Trump is mired in risk:

• Risk his Iran war of choice goes bad.
• Risk the February job losses are a trend, not a blip.
• Risk the stock market keeps dropping.
• Risk his tariffs, and now soaring oil costs, are pushing prices higher.
• Risk that deregulated AI accelerates job losses.
• Risk that Democratic enthusiasm leads to a midterm wipeout.

Why it matters: Trump fancies himself a high-risk, high-reward president, a confidence cheered by the vast majority of Republican officials and voters. But risk is risk — and by most measures, it's rising everywhere.

President Trump is positioning himself as a central architect of Iran's post-war future, demanding "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER" on Friday.

The big picture: Trump is signaling ambitions that extend beyond military action into reshaping Iran's political and economic order just as he did in Venezuela. But experts warn it's not that simple.

In theory, an emergency that's blocking petro-flows and spiking prices should boost the case for clean energy. But in practice, it's way more complicated.

Why it matters: The Iran war is the biggest energy crisis since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, if not longer.

Oil and gasoline prices are marching upward again Friday, even as Trump administration officials seek ways to get more barrels into the market.

Why it matters: Ships avoiding the Strait of Hormuz and military threats to regional infrastructure are together shocking oil and natural gas markets.

Corporate giants on Thursday unveiled a $100 million effort to stake projects that cut climate "superpollutants" like methane, black carbon and refrigerant gases.

Why it matters: These substances are "responsible for roughly half of all climate warming to date and can contribute to harmful air pollution," per the Superpollutant Action Initiative.