Axios

The world faces an "economic nuclear winter" if President Trump doesn't immediately pause his sweeping reciprocal tariffs, hedge fund manager Bill Ackman said Sunday night.

Why it matters: The billionaire Ackman, a staunch Trump supporter, put the market's fears about the fate of the global economy in the starkest terms possible.

If there was one consistent message from Trump administration economic officials Sunday morning, it was this: We're not worried about the stock market plunging, and the cavalry isn't coming to save you from tariffs, either.

Why it matters: Investors lost more than $6 trillion Thursday and Friday as stocks sank on President Trump's sweeping new tariff plan.

Elon Musk "doesn't understand" the mechanics of other countries cheating the U.S. on trade, Trump trade counselor Peter Navarro said Sunday.

Why it matters: Musk blasted Navarro on Saturday and said he'd prefer a world with free trade, setting up a confrontation with one of the architects of Trump's sweeping tariff regime.

The formula used by the Trump administration to levy reciprocal tariffs contains a serious math error that over-inflates the impact by about a factor of four, economists at the American Enterprise Institute said.

Why it matters: The conservative think tank says the error led to tariff rates massively higher than they should have been to achieve the goals the administration sought.

A bipartisan consensus on how to compete with China that took shape in President Trump's first term has exploded at the start of his second.

Why it matters: Nearly everyone in Washington agrees that to win the battle for the 21st century, the U.S. needs to strengthen its alliances in Asia, shift supply chains to friendlier countries, and convince the world Washington is a more dependable partner than Beijing. Nearly everyone, that is, except Donald J. Trump.

Americans will benefit more from lower energy prices and interest rates than they will be hurt by falling stock prices as a result of President Trump's tariffs, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday.

Why it matters: Economists broadly fear a global recession, perhaps even a dire stagflationary environment of rising prices and slowing growth, after Trump's sweeping attempt to re-order the world's economy.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's tax-cut negotiators say big progress has been made on Capitol Hill, and are optimistic about final passage by summer despite the measure's complexity, Treasury officials tell Axios.

Why it matters: With markets plunging after President Trump's tariffs, top administration officials see the extension of Trump's first-term tax cuts — set to expire at year's end — as a chance to show consumers and businesses that he has a broad growth and affordability agenda to benefit them.

Elon Musk blasted top Trump administration trade adviser Peter Navarro and told an Italian political gathering he wants more free trade, not less.

Why it matters: The two-day rout in the stock market this week, after Trump announced sweeping new tariffs backed by Navarro, cost Musk nearly $18 billion just on his Tesla stock.

Economics 101 dictates that higher tariffs strengthen the value of a country's currency, but Trump's tariff announcement sent the value of the U.S. dollar plunging.

Why it matters: It's a sign that investors are worried about a recession, particularly in the U.S. — on top of concern that U.S. policies are making America a longer-term risky bet.

President Trump on Saturday touted his tariff regime as an "economic revolution" and told businesses to "hang tough" in the face of widespread market panic.

Why it matters: Economists say a recession is highly likely, potentially even a dire stagflation scenario, as Trump fundamentally re-orders the global economy.

In one 48-minute speech, President Trump scrambled every American's budget, every U.S. company's balance sheet and every global alliance.

• Tariffs, a sometimes obscure economic tool, have massive power, especially when enacted this expansively.

Why it matters: Think fundamental re-ordering of the economy. Americans are staring down a disruption to their standard of living. Companies are about to find out how bad bad can get. The ripple effects may be felt for years to come.

President Trump's tariff revolution is rooted in a simple thesis: America has been humiliated and exploited by foreign nations for decades, and only he has the guts to make them pay.

Why it matters: Trump's personal victim complex has powered much of its political career. Now it's going global — with the entire world, not just Trump's domestic enemies, feeling the weight of retribution.

The party's ending for stock investors.

The big picture: With the historic two-day rout Thursday and Friday, the major indices — the S&P 500, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 — are all lower now than they were a year ago.

When everything gets more expensive everywhere because of tariffs, that starts a cycle for businesses, too — one that might end with layoffs, bankruptcies, and higher prices for the survivors' customers.

Why it matters: The cycle is just starting now, but the pain is immediate.

Let's go back to basics. What is a tariff, what role do they play in the economy, and how have they been applied, both historically and now?

The big picture: Tariffs were once the primary way the United States collected tax revenue, but over time elected leaders and economists alike have rejected them for their many downsides. President Trump is seeking to reverse that long tide.

The fallout of high tariffs on most Americans is simple and painful: They'll have less money to spend.

Why it matters: The tariffs will likely increase the prices of necessities like food, clothing and cars, and leave folks with less disposable income to spend on other things.

This is the hard truth for American manufacturers: Trump's tariffs are all but inescapable unless the global supply chain — the decades-long backbone of domestic manufacturing — is replicated stateside.

Why it matters: It won't happen overnight. For now, many businesses in the sector Trump hopes to revitalize face the prospect of higher costs and withering demand from foreign buyers.

The price of Mega Millions tickets more than doubles starting Saturday as a new version of the game is rolled out.

Why it matters: U.S. lottery sales are big money as Americans play in hopes of winning a life-changing jackpot.