Trump's tariffs are a nightmare for companies big and small

• From clothing retailers who get all of their production from heavily tariffed Asian countries, to bakers whose pastries depend on newly levied imported vanilla, to the tech companies whose batteries need the minerals China just cut off in retaliation, this weekend will be a scramble to figure out how to survive the new world order.

The big picture: The stock market is not the economy, but if you want a decent proxy for Main Street businesses, look at the Russell 2000, a broad measure of the stock market's small companies across industries.

• It's down almost 20% this year alone.
• That in and of itself doesn't make a business turn the lights off, but it says something about public confidence in their prospects.
• "The market is like a real time poll ... this is going to impact all businesses in one way or another undoubtedly," Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management wrote Friday.

Zoom out: The early signs are everywhere, large and small.

• Electronics trade group IPC estimates the cost of critical components coming from overseas will rise 30% to 50%. Even if you're already manufacturing domestically, the parts you need from somewhere will get expensive, quickly.
• Automaker Stellantis paused production at multiple factories and laid off hundreds of people.

• Irrigation company Lindsay Corp. said the tariffs would increase its cost of goods, which it would pass through to customers. Those customers are farmers, who are now getting squeezed by foreign retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.
• It's only April, but already Christmas is getting complicated, too. Forty-eight hours after announcing a pre-order date for its new video game console, Nintendo had to cancel it. Turns out there's now massive tariffs on the countries where it's manufactured.

The bottom line: Businesses need to plan. In this environment, they can't.

• Meanwhile, their costs will keep rising and their customers will keep pulling back.