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Axios Pro: Deals

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

National

Crocs, a favorite brand of Gen Z, is giving away free pairs of shoes in a contest to mark the brand's 20 years.

Why it matters: A new Morning Consult survey found the footwear company is more popular with people ages 18-25 favor Crocs than even their closest elders, particularly millennials, with whom they're often lumped in, Axios’ Jennifer A. Kingson reports.

Driving the news: Crocs renamed the month "Croctober" and said it will give away “tens of thousands of pairs” of its shoes each day Saturday through Oct. 7.

Details: The contest is open to enter from 10am to 3pm ET daily on Crocs website for a chance to win a Classic Lined Tie-Dye Clogs, the company told Axios.

Entries can also be made through the Crocs app. 

Winners will be chosen randomly and “will be notified by email within 12 hours of the draw closing,” the Croctober page notes. 

Between the lines: You need to have a free Crocs Fans account and also need to create an account with EQL, who is managing the contest.

Of note: The system requires “submission of payment information“ for winners but Crocs told Axios “giveaway winners will not be charged anything.”

Flashback: Crocs has given away around 1 million pairs of shoes to health care workers in the last three years through its “Free Pair for Healthcare” program that began in spring 2020 amid COVID.

What's next: The brand said there will be "surprise giveaways," product launches and collaboration releases throughout the month.

The made-up holiday of Croc Day is Oct. 23 and a limited-edition Croc Day Clog will be released to Crocs Club members Oct. 20 and to everyone Oct. 21.

Target has rare gift card sale ahead of holidays through Saturday

Starbucks of the future means faster drinks, updated mobile app

Walmart extends holiday returns window and adds curbside returns

Sam's Club raising membership fees for first time in 9 years

Crocs kicks off weeklong free shoes giveaway for all

Crocs has a "free pair for all" shoe giveaway running daily through Oct. 7. Here's how to enter.

Crocs launches a "Free Pair For All" shoe giveaway Oct. 1. Photo: Dina Rudick/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Shopping

Disney network channels including ABC, ESPN, Hulu and National Geographic went dark on Dish Network and Sling TV Saturday after both sides failed to reach a new carriage agreement. 

The big picture: It's the second significant blackout for Disney in the last year after channels briefly went dark on YouTube TV. 

Dish has utilized aggressive negotiation tactics lately, commonly using blackouts and the threat of blackouts in recent years, per The Hollywood Reporter.

By the numbers: Dish currently has approximately 10 million subscribers split between the satellite TV service and Sling TV, per THR.

What they're saying: "Disney has exploited its market position to increase fees without regard for the public viewing experience," Dish TV executive vice president and group president Brian Neylon said in a statement. 

"Clearly, Disney insists on prioritizing greed above American viewers, especially sports fans and families with children who watch their content."

“After months of negotiating in good faith, Dish has declined to reach a fair, market-based agreement with us for continued distribution of our networks,” a Disney spokesperson said in a statement.  

“The rates and terms we are seeking reflect the marketplace and have been the foundation for numerous successful deals with pay TV providers of all types and sizes across the country."

Between the lines: The blackout comes just ahead of the new fall TV season with multiple shows returning to ABC and Disney. ESPN is also in the middle of the college and NFL football seasons, as well as the MLB playoffs. 

Saturday morning, Dish Network was a trending topic on Twitter as many football fans expressed frustration at being unable to watch sports on ESPN's family of networks. 

Many also blasted Dish Network and Disney for failing to warn customers that they would be unable to watch these networks in the days before the carriage agreement expired. 

Disney, ESPN go dark on Dish, Sling TV after carriage agreement expires

Dish currently has approximately 10 million subscribers split between the satellite TV service and Sling TV.

Photo Illustration by Rafael Henrique/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Dish Network

Axios Markets

The strong dollar might not actually be "wreaking havoc" around the world, as some headline writers would have you believe. 

Why it matters: Large swings in the dollar — in either direction — tend to destabilize corporate and central bank strategies. Stability and predictability are good things. Still, the strengthening greenback is welcome news to many constituencies.

Foreign investors all have substantial exposure to stocks and bonds that are denominated in dollars — and the strong dollar has helped boost their local currency returns.

Over the past 10 years, the S&P 500 is up more than 250% in foreign currency terms, if you look at how the the dollar has performed against a trade-weighted basked of currencies. By comparison, it's up only about 150% in dollar terms.

Foreign governments, frustrated by sluggish domestic economies, like the idea that their exporters will see higher revenues when their currencies weaken, thereby boosting growth.

China, for instance, has pushed its currency down to a low of 7.2 yuan to the dollar, in an attempt to turbocharge exports. 

Europe has seen its currency weaken by roughly the same amount, much to the delight of its exporters. One euro is worth about 22% less than it was at the beginning of 2021; one yuan is worth about 13% less than it was as recently as March 2022.

"The weakening of the euro, yen, pound, or renminbi improves the competitiveness of other major economies, offering support for their economic activity," writes Stephen Dover of the Franklin Templeton Institute.

The Federal Reserve, tasked with lowering inflation, is happy to let the strong dollar do some of the heavy lifting.

Imported goods cost less in dollar terms, causing disinflation.

The profits of multinational corporations also decline in dollar terms, both because foreign revenues are worth less and because U.S. companies find it harder to compete with companies whose prices are denominated in euros or yuan. That might not be great news for the companies in question, but it does help the Fed slow demand in the economy.

What they're saying: "At this juncture, where inflation seems much too high and much more out of whack relative to target, U.S. policymakers are probably looking at the stronger dollar and are quite pleased with the help they are getting on the inflation front," writes Kamakshya Trivedi of Goldman Sachs. 

The bottom line: The last time the dollar was this strong, in 1985, the world's governments made a concerted effort to weaken it. This time around, that's highly unlikely to happen.

Don't hate the strong dollar

It has helped boost local currency returns and economic growth in other countries.

Illustration of a barbell with two rolls of cash as weights

U.S. Dollar Index

A 1,260-pound spacecraft, traveling at 13,680 miles per hour, obliterated itself on Monday by smashing — deliberately — into an asteroid moonlet called Dimorphos.

Why it matters: The $324.5 million program, known as DART, is just part of the broader NASA project known as "planetary defense" — which, even now that DART is largely over, will continue to be funded to the tune of $142.7 million per year.

Yes, but: The $142.7 million is $55 million more than NASA asked for; Congress is telling NASA to hurry up and spend more money, more quickly, to reach its mandate of identifying 90% of near-Earth objects greater than 140 meters in diameter.

The big picture: This is the sort of spending that governments are supposed to be bad at.

A 2010 report by the National Research Council (NRC), with the wonderful title "Defending Planet Earth," admits that the roughly 100 lives per year lost on average to asteroid impacts is probably "trivial in the general scheme of things."

The catch, of course, is that the average conceals massive variation — and that a large impact could pose existential risk. (Just ask the dinosaurs.)

The problem of asteroid impacts, concludes the NRC, is simultaneously “extremely important” and “extremely rare.”

Asteroid 2005 ED224, for instance, is only 50 meters in diameter — about the same size as the Tunguska event of 1908, and much smaller than anything NASA is looking for. It's the closest thing to a present risk that Earth faces, but when it passes our planet on March 11, there's only going to be a 0.0002% chance of collision.

What they're saying: Charitable foundations are necessary, wrote Stanford professor Rob Reich in a highly influential 2013 essay, insofar as they "take on the long-run, high-risk policy experiments that no one else will."

"Public officials in a democracy do not have an incentive structure that rewards high-risk, long time horizon experimentation; they need to show results quickly from the expenditure of public dollars in order to get re-elected."

Between the lines: The best-case outcome of the planetary defense budget — essentially a billion-dollar insurance policy of unknowable utility — is that it's wasted and never needs to be put to the test.

If it does get put to use, the politicians who funded it will almost certainly all be long dead. And yet, those same politicians, over the past decade, have joined forces across the aisle to provide the planetary defense project with a nine-figure annual budget.

The bottom line: The longtermist project in philanthropy is dedicated to the proposition that wealthy individuals can and must step in to protect the planet from risks that governments are too myopic to address.

The DART program stands as an implicit rebuke to that thesis — especially since there is no chance that it would have ever been funded via private philanthropy.

Who's really spending longtermist billions

The billion-dollar insurance policy is proof that governments can support high-risk policy experiments.

Illustration of a giant Benjamin Franklin peering over the earth

Aerospace

Credit bureaus want to score more Americans, by incorporating non-credit sources — timely rent payments, for instance — into their calculations.

Why it matters: A lot of for-profit companies have joined the bureaus in this space, invariably proclaiming high-minded ideals of financial inclusion. But as Stanford sociologist Barbara Kiviat tells Axios, "access to credit is the same thing as enabling people to become indebted."

How it works: Lenders like to lend to people they can trust to repay them in full and on time. One way of predicting such behavior is to look at how assiduously previous loans have been repaid. Another way is to look at a history of on-time payments for anything from rent to utilities to Netflix.

One such program, Experian Boost, has signed up 8.6 million Americans. In the same vein, Esusu, which works with landlords, claims a 100% success rate in getting a credit score for people who previously didn't have one.

Other credit-building companies, like TomoCredit and X1, make short-term loans underwritten against wealth or income rather than repayment history. Those loans then build a credit history, which becomes a credit score.

By the numbers: Compared to someone with "very good" credit of between 740 and 799, someone with "fair" credit — between 630 and 689 — has to pay substantially more interest on their loans. The credit risk means higher rates of about half a point on mortgages, three points on auto loans, and seven points on credit cards.

The catch: If a "credit invisible" person then ends up with a credit score that's very low, that can be worse than having no credit score at all, says Chi Chi Wu of the National Consumer Law Center.

Having bad credit can double your car insurance rate — but in most states that allow insurers to use credit scores, the law specifically says that people without a credit score can't be penalized.

Similarly, having bad credit is worse than having no credit when you're applying for a job.

Having a subprime credit score also exposes people to some of the most predatory lenders in the industry.

The other side: "I have yet to see anyone go from credit invisible to a bad score," says Maitri Johnson, who oversees programs at TransUnion that incorporate rent payments into credit scores.

The big picture: All of these programs, so far, are opt-in. People who pay their rent on time are the people who try to improve their credit scores, or get a brand-new score that's reasonably healthy. People who don't, generally don't.

The risk is that as these programs become embedded into credit bureaus' methodology, data on things like rent and utility payments will be automatically reported, much like data on loan repayments are today.

At that point, the programs "may replicate and entrench the social and economic disadvantages that lead some people to have fair and poor credit scores," write law professors Pamela Foohey and Sara Sternberg Greene in a recent article.

The race to hand out credit scores

Existing programs to credit more Americans are, so far, opt-in.

Illustration of a credit card wearing a sweatband and dripping sweat.

Credit

Axios Closer

Philip Morris USA parent Altria Group is poised to re-enter the vaping space as the tobacco industry looks to e-cigarettes for much-needed revenue growth.

Driving the news: Marlboro seller Altria disclosed Friday that it had ended its noncompete agreement with Juul, after the value of its investment in the vaping company imploded when federal regulators moved against Juul’s products.

Why it matters: The cigarette industry, facing decades of declines in smoking rates, needs to identify a new route to growth — and e-cigarettes present opportunity even as they face increased oversight.

Altria is well suited to make a major play.

“The larger companies have a lot of experience, they have the legal expertise and just a long history of dealing with regulators, so they’re ... well positioned” to succeed in e-cigarettes, CFRA Research analyst Garrett Nelson tells Axios.

Catch up quick: Altria invested nearly $13 billion in Juul in 2018, taking a 35% stake in the then-booming company and agreeing to mothball its own vaping endeavors.

But Juul’s business soon came under scrutiny as watchdogs accused the company of marketing its products to kids.

The FDA this summer instructed Juul to remove its products from U.S. shelves, saying it failed to provide adequate data on its chemicals. The move triggered a legal battle over the future of the e-cigarette brand in the American market. The order is on hold for now.

That latest: Altria recently wrote down the value of its investment in Juul to $450 million.

The decision to end the noncompete “maximizes our flexibility to compete in the e-vapor space while maintaining our economic interest in Juul,” Altria said in a statement.

What to watch for: Altria will want to move quickly since it’s trailing tobacco competitors like Reynolds American and smaller vaping companies.

“They can either go it alone and do their own product — or they can make an acquisition. We think the second option is probably the more likely one,” Nelson says.

Keep in mind: Like smoking, vaping is addictive because e-cigarettes contain nicotine, the same addictive ingredient that’s in cigarettes. 

The Biden administration’s FDA has been cracking down on the industry. Vaping proponents, meanwhile, point to arguments that vaping is less harmful than smoking and can serve as an off-ramp for tobacco addicts.

State of play: Health issues aside, vaping poses the prospect of a financial windfall for Altria, which has few other plausible routes for growth.

"Any earnings improvement has been driven by cost cuts, and you just can’t cut costs forever,” Nelson says. “At some point you have to diversify your revenue stream.”

Goldman Sachs analyst Bonnie Herzog wrote Friday that the move to terminate the non-compete is "very positive" for Altria, noting that the company can now pursue revenue from vaping while also retaining its stake in Juul, thus potentially capitalizing on any potential upside if Juul takes a turn for the better.

The other side: “This decision gives us more flexibility as it increases the financial and strategic options we can pursue to secure our business and address the impact of the FDA’s now stayed order,” Juul said in a statement, adding that the company is “confident” in its ability to meet the FDA’s requirements to get back onto the market.

Nelson, however, said he’s skeptical that Juul will reemerge as a competitor in the U.S.: “Most analysts are looking at it as a fairly low probability because this administration is cracking down on tobacco more than the prior administration.”

What’s next: If Altria decides to go the acquisition route, expect the company to target vaping businesses that have already obtained preliminary FDA approval to sell and market their products under the new regulatory regime that Juul has failed to navigate, Nelson says.

"They know the players in the industry, they’ve done their homework, so if they’re gonna make a move, it could happen fairly quickly,” Nelson says.

“But they have to have assurance they’re not going to be making a similar mistake as Juul, so I think they’ll be more careful in their due diligence process.”

Big Tobacco takes on vaping: Marlboro maker Altria ends detente with Juul

Marlboro cigarette maker Altria Group ended its non-compete agreement with vaping company Juul.

Illustration of a vape pen sticking out of a carton of cigarettes.

Food and Drug Administration (FDA)

Florida's theme parks, including Disney World and Universal Studios, started reopening Friday, while Busch Gardens was planning to reopen Saturday after the state's major tourist attractions closed due to Hurricane Ian.

Why it matters: More than 1.8 million customers in the state remained without power Friday after the major storm made landfall in southwest Florida Wednesday and moved across the state, unleashing widespread life-threatening storm surge floods.

Hundreds of schools and stores across the state also shuttered ahead of the storm, though some reopened Friday.

Many airports said they planned to reopen Friday, including in Tampa and Orlando, after Ian canceled hundreds of flights earlier in the week.

Be smart: Check with individual businesses near you to check on their status as constant changes are expected.

Busch Gardens closed through Saturday, Disney, Universal start phased reopenings

Busch Gardens Tampa Bay said on its website that the namesake park, Adventure Island, SeaWorld Orlando, Aquatica Orlando, and Discovery Cove parks were closed Friday and expected to reopen on Saturday, Oct. 1. 

Meanwhile, Disney said on its weather updates page that Typhoon Lagoon water park is "temporarily closed with a planned reopening on Sunday, Oct. 2."

Winter Summerland Miniature Golf and Fairways Miniature Golf will remain temporarily closed. 

Universal Studios Orlando said on its website that it expected to "begin a phased reopen of portions of [its] destination for our hotel guests only beginning Friday" and additional updates would be posted on the website and social channels.

State of play: Legoland, also located in Orlando, remains closed Friday, the park said in a statement. 

Kennedy Space Center's Visitor Complex remains closed Friday and will reopen Saturday.

Hurricane Ian school closings continue in Florida 

More than 73% of Florida's 67 school districts remained closed Friday, according to the s Department of Education.

What's happening: The state website also now lists reopening dates with most schools saying they are closed through Friday and others noting they plan to reopen Monday.

Hardee and Sarasota school districts are "closed until further notice," the site says.

Walmart Hurricane Ian store closings stretch through  Carolinas

Walmart has begun to reopen some of the more than 200 stores and Sam's Club locations that were listed as closed in Florida on Thursday.

As of Friday, 124 stores were listed as closed in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina, according to a map that will be updated.

Details: For some of the closed stores, pickup and delivery are available, the map notes.

What they're saying: "Walmart, Sam’s Club and the Walmart Foundation are committing up to $6 million to recovery and relief efforts," the retailer said on a Hurricane Ian facility status page.

Separately, Lowe's said it will donate $2 million to nonprofit Pro customers and disaster relief partners, including the American Red Cross and others, to support relief efforts in Florida.

Publix, Florida's largest grocery store chain, has a map on its website with each store’s status, and as of Friday afternoon, 196 stores had modified hours, which in most cases means they are temporarily closed.

The map is being updated with new information such as reopening dates and times. Many stores reopened Friday throughout Florida.

Some Publix stores in South Carolina and North Carolina are listed as having modified hours, the map shows.

National parks hurricane closures continue

The National Park Service is updating park closures on its severe weather response website.

Details: There were park closings in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina listed on Friday.

Editor's note: This story has been updated with additional and new information. Some businesses and updates included in earlier versions of this story have been removed.

Florida death toll rises from Hurricane Ian

Florida power outages from Hurricane Ian continue for 1.9 million-plus

Ian is a hurricane again, heads for Georgia and Carolinas

Biden: "No excuse" for gas price hikes in wake of Hurricane Ian

Tampa Bay

Axios Tampa Bay Thought Bubble

Picture of the Tampa Bay skyline with TPA written across it.

Get smarter, faster about what’s happening in your backyard with local reporter Ben Montgomery.

Axios Tampa Bay

Florida store closures continue in Hurricane Ian aftermath, some theme parks reopen

A majority of schools that closed for Hurricane Ian remain closed Friday.

People walk in Walt Disney World in Florida towards Cinderella Castle

Walt Disney World started a phased reopening of some of its Orlando parks Friday after being closed since Wednesday for Hurricane Ian. Photo: Laura Kerst/Axios

hurricanes

"Cheers" on Friday toasted to its 40th anniversary.

Why it matters: The '80s comedy aired a total 275 episodes and ran for 11 seasons on NBC, winning 28 Emmy Awards in the process.

"Cheers" first premiered on Sept. 30, 1982 and had its last call more than a decade later, on May 20, 1993.

The legendary sitcom spent many of its episodes inside a Boston pub based on a real-world watering hole called Cheers on Beacon Hill.

"Cheers" helped launch the careers of actors Ted Danson, Woody Harrelson, Kirstie Alley and Kelsey Grammer.

The show's theme song — "Where Everybody Knows Your Name" by Portnoy — is as recognizable as the series itself.

What they're saying: "It was like going to camp -- a good one, not one you wanted to call home every day," actress Rhea Perlman told ABC News about working on the show.

"It just was a very comfortable, fun place to be," Perlman added. "We had great writers, we had a great cast and we had fun."

Don't forget that "Cheers" poured us another one with "Frasier," a spinoff series that saw Grammer taking on the lead role.

"Frasier" won 37 Emmy Awards and five consecutive wins in the Best Comedy Series category — the most of any series, according to the Guinness World Records.

"Cheers" turns 40

The legendary sitcom spent many of its episodes inside a Boston pub based on a real-world watering hole.

A Cheers door is one of the many items that are up for auction at Cheers Bar in Faneuil Hall in Boston on Oct. 5, 2020.

A Cheers door up for auction at Cheers Bar in Faneuil Hall in Boston. Photo: Jessica Rinaldi/The Boston Globe via Getty Images

Television

A new court filing shows that Elon Musk's phone buzzed with text messages from a number of celebrities, media personalities, and business leaders in the lead-up to his bid to buy Twitter.

Why it matters: The text messages, revealed in a court filing Thursday, offer a rare glimpse into the private conversations of the wealthiest man on the planet and other powerful figures as he looked to buy the social media company.

The messages were released as part of a pre-trial discovery process in the court battle between Musk and Twitter.

What they're saying: A number of the messages show prominent personalities trying to gain insight into the deal and providing advice on what Musk should do to improve the social media platform.

The texts included exchanges with the company's founder Jack Dorsey and current CEO Parag Agrawal, as well as notable names, such as podcaster Joe Rogan.

Musk also texted with multiple people as he searched for financing to help with the Twitter bid. This included Oracle cofounder Larry Ellison, per Fortune.

Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and Musk discussed on March 26 what the future of Twitter would look like.

"A new platform is needed. It can't be a company. That's why I left," Dorsey wrote.

Agrawal told Musk on April 3 — days before it became public that Musk was joining Twitter's board — that he was "super excited about the opportunity" to work together. He said he looked "forward to working closely and finding ways to use your time as effectively as possible."

The mood between the two shifted slightly after Musk tweeted on April 9, "Is Twitter dying?" 

Agrawal texted Musk, “You are free to tweet ‘is Twitter dying?’ or anything else about Twitter — but it’s my responsibility to tell you that it’s not helping me make Twitter better in the current context. I’d like the company to get to a place where we are more resilient and don’t get distracted, but we aren’t there right now.”

The powerful people texting Elon Musk before he offered to buy Twitter

The messages were revealed as a result of the court battle between Musk and Twitter.

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