After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

National

Health: Study: 76% of long COVID patients were not initially hospitalized — Axios-Ipsos poll: 1 in 3 say the pandemic's over — U.S. COVID death toll officially surpasses 1 million.

Vaccines: Which age groups are eligible for the different COVID vaccines — CDC director authorizes Pfizer COVID booster for children 5-11. 

Politics: Fauci says he won’t stay if Trump is re-elected — Biden orders flags at half-staff for 1 million deaths.

World: North Korea reports first COVID death.

Global: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET on Thursday: 523,915,465 — Total deaths: 6,273,152 — Total vaccine doses administered: 11,429,887,741.

U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 9 p.m. ET on Thursday: 83,060,963 — Total deaths: 1,001,609.

What should I do? Axios asked the experts:

When you can be around others after contracting the coronavirus

Traveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagious

Answers about the virus from Axios experts

Download our app and follow the Coronavirus channel to get the latest news.

Editor's note: Johns Hopkins University stopped reporting U.S. COVID-19 recoveries on its dashboard on Dec. 15, citing a Coronavirus Tracking Project post that explained the national data is incomplete since several states do not keep records of recovered patients. It stopped reporting global recoveries and began reporting doses administered in May. 

COVID-19 dashboard

The latest headlines that you need to know.

Illustration of a coronavirus cell falling into a time warp.  

Health Care

Coronavirus

World

Politics

President Biden has made the COVID-19 crisis and a post-Trump return to national unity and traditional democratic ideals his top priorities. From vaccinations to stimulus to schools, Biden is seeking bipartisan compromise while showing a willingness to use executive authority and bare Democratic majorities in the U.S. House and Senate to implement his policies. Republican leaders are navigating deep party divisions over if and how to move beyond former President Trump.

Politics & Policy

China is becoming the most formidable rival America has faced, and the risk of confrontation with Russia, North Korea or Iran still looms. Authoritarians are rising, the chaotic Afghanistan exit revealed the limits of U.S. power, and the pandemic, climate change and other critical challenges continue to pose grave threats.

The U.S. faces a range of health care flashpoints — unaffordable drugs, opioids, vaping — as we debate whether to adopt universal care. For now, the Affordable Care Act is the law of the land, but Republicans want to issue it a final death blow.

Health

Axios Closer

Foxconn’s entry into the American electric vehicle space opens the door for one of the world’s biggest contract manufacturers to grab a foothold in a growing global business.

Why it matters: Automakers — both traditional companies and startups — have largely dominated EV manufacturing until now, cornering an emerging market viewed as crucial to their survival.

But Foxconn’s experience in Apple iPhone production lends the tech giant a degree of manufacturing sophistication that could make it a serious player in the EV industry.

“It’s a logical step,” S&P Global Mobility analyst Stephanie Brinley tells Axios. “What they are skilled at and what they’ve done with Apple is to be able to take their specs and build it. So they do understand manufacturing.”

Driving the news: Taiwan-based Foxconn, known officially as Hon Hai Technology Group, reached a deal last week with Lordstown Motors to acquire the EV startup’s sprawling plant in northeast Ohio, where Foxconn has agreed to produce Lordstown's Endurance pickup.

Foxconn will also co-develop EVs with Lordstown, though that requires Lordstown to survive its current cash crisis.

The sprawling factory is a former General Motors plant once hailed by President Barack Obama and, later, President Donald Trump as wins for their respective economic agendas. 

Yes, but: Cars have thousands more parts than phones, so there's no guarantee Foxconn can make a smooth transition.

"Obviously the iPhone is complex. I’d say an electric vehicle is maybe a little more complex," LMC Automotive analyst Jeff Schuster tells Axios.

"It’s a leap, but there are certainly some synergies there — and their expertise in the development of components in that space should (help) as the EV moves into more of a high-tech vehicle space.” 

What we’re watching: Whether EV production at the Lordstown plant — where Foxconn is also expected to make a vehicle for EV startup Fisker — breeds more manufacturing deals.

Foxconn’s close partner Apple has long been rumored to be considering entering the EV race, prompting analysts to posit that the Lordstown deal could provide Foxconn a way to prove its automotive credentials to Apple.

“In fact, it probably makes the idea of an Apple car more feasible and maybe more realistic,” Schuster says.

Foxconn did not respond to a request seeking comment.

iPhone maker Foxconn enters U.S. electric vehicle manufacturing industry

The Apple iPhone manufacturer has acquired a former GM plant in Ohio with plans to make EVs on a contract basis.

Mechanic lying underneath smartphone, doing repairs.

Automakers

Axios Pro Rata

Twitter on Thursday introduced a new policy aimed at making sure the social network doesn't amplify or recommend disinformation during an international armed conflict and crisis.

Why it matters: False material proliferated on Twitter and other social networks in the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

Twitter says it will work to vet fact-specific information in times of crisis, via "multiple credible, publicly available sources."

Inaccurate tweets won't be removed, but instead will be put behind a warning label. They also will be unable to be liked, retweeted or shared.

What's excluded, per Twitter: "Strong commentary, efforts to debunk or fact check, and personal anecdotes or first person accounts."

Be smart: This content moderation effort, like many others at Twitter, could be totally or partially undone if Elon Musk buys the company.

Look ahead: Twitter says that while this initial policy is aimed at international armed conflict, it could later be expanded to include other forms of crisis.

Twitter unveils "crisis misinformation policy" to slow down viral tweets

The initial policy is aimed at international armed conflicts, but could later be expanded.

Twitter

Technology

McDonald's on Wednesday said that it will sell its Russian business to a local licensee, who will continue to operate the restaurants under a different brand. 

Why it matters: The fast-food giant has operated in Russia for three decades, and its original entry was viewed as a landmark thawing of Cold War tensions. It now becomes one of the largest foreign brands to exit Russia due to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine. 

Catch up quick: McDonald's previously announced plans to exit Russia but didn't provide specifics.

The buyer is Alexander Govor, who began opening McDonald's stores in Russia seven years ago. 

By the numbers: McDonald's has more than 800 restaurants in Russia, of which it owns around 84%. That works out to around $2.25 billion in annual revenue, or 3% of its global total.

No financial terms were disclosed for the divestiture, but McDonald's previously said it would take a $1.4 billion charge.

McDonald's discloses buyer in Russia as it exits country

Fast good giant becomes one of the largest foreign brands to exit Russia

Photo by Sefa Karacan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

McDonalds

Antitrust enforcers are coming for private equity.

Driving the news: Jonathan Kanter, the DOJ's top antitrust cop, believes that buyout firms have inappropriately escaped regulatory scrutiny, in an interview with The Financial Times. 

"Sometimes [the motive of a private equity firm is] designed to hollow out or roll up an industry and essentially cash out," Kanter said. "That business model is often very much at odds with the law, and very much at odds with the competition we’re trying to protect.”

Big picture: Private equity is typically viewed as Corporate America's antitrust antidote, with the DOJ and FTC more concerned about major strategics buying rivals. 

PE funds do often create roll-up platforms (i.e., shell companies designed to scoop up lots of players in the same space), but rarely ones that are large enough to be considered market dominant. 

PE acquisitions are usually vertical in their nature, due to fund structures, but the Biden administration has been clear that it's now concerned with both horizontal and vertical mergers, whereas past administrations focused almost exclusively on the former.

Law book: Kanter argues that some PE funds could be in violation of the Clayton Antitrust Act of 1914, if they have reps on the boards of competing companies. 

That clause has never before been used to go after financial sponsors. Perhaps that gives comfort to PE firms in such a position, but it should also give them pause because Kanter isn't saying this without having at least one or two examples in mind.

Caveat: Biden's DOJ and FTC so far have talked a bigger antitrust game than they've walked.

The bottom line: Wall Street and Silicon Valley have more in common with every passing day. 

U.S. antitrust regulators eye private equity

Historically, big buyouts funds have escaped antitrust scrutiny. That's changing.

Illustration of a blueprint of a gavel surrounded by formulas. 

Private equity

Kohl's this morning disclosed that it's received preliminary, nonbinding takeover offers, and that final and fully financed bids are due within the coming weeks. CEO Michelle Gass added that the retailer is "pleased" with the level of interest. 

Why it matters: Retail is the canary in the consumer coal mine, with yesterday's stock market rout coming after disappointing earnings from Walmart, Lowe's and Target. Whatever price is fetched by Kohl's — which also reported lousy numbers and two C-suite departures — could become another major data point on investor sentiment.

Look ahead: Macy's and Nordstrom are slated to report earnings next week.

More, from CNBC: "Pressure mounted earlier this year from activists, including hedge fund Macellum Advisors, for Kohl's to consider selling itself as its share price lagged that of other big-box retailers. The firms argued Kohl's could unlock more value from its real estate." 

Kohl's says takeover offers are due soon

Department store operator says binding bids are due in the coming weeks.

Illustration of a retail building covered in sale stickers

Retail

New unemployment claims are beginning to tick up again, according to new data released by the Labor Department on Thursday. 

Driving the news: The number of jobless claims rose by 21,000 to 218,000 for the week ending May 14. The uptick brought the four-week rolling average to 199,500, the department reported. 

Yes, but: Despite the increase, the total number of Americans receiving continued unemployment benefits was at a 53-year low for the week ending May 7, the department said. 

The economy added 428,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%. 

Our thought bubble, via Axios' chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin: The weekly numbers are volatile, so it's a bad idea to read too much into a small surge. The figures are still far below what you would expect to see in a recession. 

That said, claims are usually the earliest indication that something is changing in the labor market.

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to show the economy added 428,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.6%. It did not add 266,000 jobs in April, and the unemployment rate did not rise to 6.1%.

New jobless claims start to climb again

Despite the increase, the total number of Americans receiving continued unemployment benefits was at a 53-year low for the week ending May 7.

Now hiring signs are displayed in front of restaurants in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, on March 19. Photo: Stefani Reynolds / AFP via Getty Images

Jobs

Oishii, the company behind the $6 strawberry, is cutting prices by more than half as it opens a large indoor vertical farm, the company announced Thursday.

A tray of 11 medium berries or eight large berries will cost $20 instead of $50.

The big picture: Demand for the gourmet berries is high, as are other pricey, made for Instagram fruits like Cotton Candy grapes or Sumo Citrus mandarins.

What they’re saying: "Yes, it's still $20, but our goal is to make this available to everyone — not just in New York — around the world," CEO and co-founder Hiroki Koga tells Axios.

What to watch: The company also announced that its products will be available at a new Whole Foods store opening in New York in a few weeks.

Company behind $6 strawberry cuts prices after opening indoor farm

The company is opening its largest vertical farm, which helps brings prices down.

Axios Markets

Some are warning that the Federal Reserve's effort to slow inflation could potentially return the U.S. economy to the unusual condition it found itself in during the 1970s and early 1980s: Stagflation. 

The big picture: Despite high inflation, the U.S. economy is humming along — with unemployment at 3.6% in April —near the low levels that last prevailed in the late 1960s. 

Stagflation describes a highly unusual economic state of affairs when the economy is weak or stagnating — with high or rising unemployment — yet inflation is also elevated.

This is the opposite of what usually happens. 

High inflation tends to break out when economic growth is really roaring. 

Periods of weak economic growth, and rising joblessness, are typically accompanied by slow price increases, or even falling prices.

While the annual pace of price increases have surged to 40-year highs in recent months, unemployment is incredibly low.  This is an inflationary environment, not stagflation.  

When's the last time we had stagflation? 

The best-known stagflationary episodes hit the U.S. in the 1970s and early 1980s, when a series of oil shocks — especially the 1973 embargo that Arab members of OPEC placed on the United States in response for military support of Israel — sent fuel costs and inflation surging, as unemployment simultaneously shot higher. 

The combination of energy shocks and stagflationary conditions lasted on and off  into the early years of the Reagan administration. As late as 1982, unemployment was hovering around 10% and prices were rising as much as 6% annually. 

A number of economic policy bigwigs — former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, current Fed chair Jerome Powell and Treasury secretary Janet Yellen (who also led the Fed) — have recently either implicitly or explicitly suggested that as the Fed tries to bring down inflation, unemployment will likely rise. 

That will likely mean we'll have an economy that is sort of stagflationary, at least for some period of time. In other words, growth will be weakening, but inflation will still be high.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Wednesday: "The economic outlook globally is challenging, and uncertain, and higher food and energy prices are having stagflationary effects, namely, depressing output and spending and raising inflation all around the world."

Bernanke in a New York Times article published this week: ''Even under the benign scenario, we should have a slowing economy ... And inflation's still too high but coming down. So there should be a period in the next year or two where growth is low, unemployment is at least up a little bit and inflation is still high,'' he predicted. ''So you could call that stagflation."

Powell told the Wall Street Journal this week: "I would say there could be some pain involved in restoring price stability."

What can Biden do about stagflation if it actually occurs?

Not much that wouldn't be politically unpalatable. 

Biden could propose a sharp reduction in federal deficit spending. That could help reduce inflation, but it would likely hurt growth and raise unemployment. 

He could attempt the kind of wage and price controls that President Nixon imposed in 1971, though that seems extremely unlikely and not particularly effective. 

He could basically let the Fed deal with it. That's essentially the path Jimmy Carter took in the late 1970s. The soaring Fed rate hikes and the deep recession that followed contributed mightily to his annihilation in the 1980 presidential election.  

The bottom line: Like we said above, we don't yet have stagflation. It's possible that the Fed is able to thread the needle so perfectly that inflation comes down easily and unemployment raises ever so slightly and nobody notices. 

But stagflation is a possibility, and an unappealing one for practically everyone. 

What stagflation means and what Biden could do about it

High inflation tends to break out when economic growth is really roaring.

Illustration of a dollar sign covered in cracks with pieces of tape over the cracks.

Stagflation

Stock market

Axios Media Trends

Campbell Brown, the veteran news anchor who has served as Meta's vice president of news partnerships since 2017, is being promoted to oversee a new global media partnerships team at the company, Meta sources tell Axios. 

Why it matters: The new role will allow Brown to focus on broader media partnerships in addition to news. New regulations around the globe are forcing tech firms like Meta and Google to pay to host news content. 

Details: In her new role, Brown will oversee a team that manages partnerships with sports leagues, film studios, broadcasters, streamers, digital media companies and news publishers across all of Meta's products. 

The  team will focus on new partnerships that support short-form video, NFTs, and the metaverse.

Examples of the types of media partnerships that Meta has brokered that would now fall under Brown's remit include a partnership with the Tribeca Film Festival to screen short films, sports streaming rights and live broadcasts of red carpet events.

What's next: A formal announcement of the promotion is expected this week.

Scoop: Campbell Brown to oversee new media partnerships team at Meta

In the new role, the executive's responsibilities will extend beyond the realm of news.

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