Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios on Monday that a long war in Iran would be very good for Russia and very bad for Ukraine.
Why it matters: Russia's oil-dependent economy is getting a big boost from surging oil prices and the loosening of U.S. sanctions, while the conflict could lead to shortages of air defense interceptors and other weapons Ukraine desperately needs, Zelensky said.
President Trump hinted Monday that the Iran war may be over soon — the latest in a series of occasions he has teased that the conflict might end.
Why it matters: Trump's messaging on the Iran war's endgame is all over the map as he attempts to make his case to the American people that the conflict will not lead to prolonged war.
The U.S. has a key advantage in weathering the Iran war-triggered energy shock that was missing in previous episodes of overseas tumult: an economy that has become substantially less energy-intensive.
Why it matters: Higher prices at the gasoline pump, for jet fuel and for diesel will no doubt hurt. But in relative terms, both the average household and the economy as a whole have more capacity to weather the hit than in the past.
The Houthis — a military rebel group from Yemen — have joined the Iran war, massively complicating the road ahead for the United States.
Why it matters: Houthi involvement not only gives Iran another ally in the war but could exacerbate the global energy and shipping crises caused by closing the Strait of Hormuz.
President Trump threatened on Monday that if a deal with Iran "is not shortly reached" and if the Hormuz Strait isn't open "immediately," the U.S. will "completely obliterate" Iran's power, energy and water infrastructure.
Why it matters: Destroying those facilities would not only have devastating implications for Iranian civilians, it could also deepen the war-driven global energy crisis. The threat comes a week before Trump's latest deadline for Iran expires, and with the regime showing few signs of bending.
Forget earnings reports or other corporate announcements, the stock market really has just two main catalysts this year: AI anxiety and President Trump.
Why it matters: It's like a pinball machine where the flippers are Truth Social and Anthropic blog posts.
Oil prices climbed above $116 per barrel after markets opened Sunday, as Iran-backed Houthi militants fired missiles and drones at Israel over the weekend and promised to continue attacks.
Why it matters: The high price that remained around the $116 a barrel mark late Sunday came as the war moved into its fifth week, showing little sign of abating despite President Trump's talk of diplomacy.
