Axios

President Trump's tariffs will cost businesses more than $1.2 trillion this year, with most of that cost being passed on to consumers, according to a new study from S&P Global.

Why it matters: It's the latest sign that Americans will end up bearing the brunt of Trump's trade war.

Navy Adm. Alvin Holsey, the head of U.S. Southern Command, is stepping down from the job roughly one year into it.

Why it matters: SOUTHCOM oversees military operations across Central and South America and in the Caribbean Sea.

• U.S. warships are massing in the region, and troops have killed more than two-dozen people who the Trump administration has accused of drug smuggling and other illicit activity.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes his meeting with President Trump at the White House on Friday will lead to clear decisions from the U.S. about which weapons systems it's prepared to provide, Zelensky's chief of staff Andriy Yermak told Axios in an interview.

• "I think we need decisions that will help to change Putin's attitude that he is in a strong position. He needs to understand that with President Trump, it's impossible to play games," Yermak said.

Why it matters: Zelensky, who arrived in Washington on Thursday afternoon, has been very optimistic in recent days about his planned meeting with Trump and the president's willingness to supply long-range Tomahawk missiles.

President Trump announced following a call with Vladimir Putin on Thursday that he and the Russian leader had agreed to meet in Hungary in the coming weeks to discuss how to end the war in Ukraine.

Split screen: The two-hour call took place a day before Trump will host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the White House. Trump and Zelensky will discuss the possibility of Ukraine receiving Tomahawk long-range missiles.

The Trump administration is working to help establish a multinational security force for Gaza, vet potential Palestinian civilian leaders, and take the first steps toward rebuilding the enclave, two senior advisers to President Trump told reporters.

The big picture: The first week of peace in Gaza has been marked by joyful reunions as well as public executions. An Israeli withdrawal but also deadly clashes. And a peace process that is proceeding as envisioned but is already facing its first potential crisis.

The U.S. passport dropped from the world's top 10 most powerful list for the first time in the 20-year history of a key rankings index.

Why it matters: The declining strength of the U.S. passport since its No. 1 spot in 2014 "signals a fundamental shift in global mobility and soft power dynamics," per a statement from Christian Kaelin, chairman of Henley & Partners and creator of the Henley Passport Index.

President Trump said Wednesday he authorized the CIA to secretly conduct operations in Venezuela, including possible strikes against drug cartels.

Why it matters: The announcement follows rising tensions with Venezuela's authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, as the U.S. military targets boats allegedly carrying drugs.

Nearly every Pentagon reporter from almost every major media outlet in America turned in their press badges Thursday, after refusing to endorse the Defense Department's new rules that they say would make it impossible to do their jobs independently.

Why it matters: Press groups say the unprecedented restrictions contravene the First Amendment and echo a concerning trend of press freedoms under attack by the Trump administration.

Key Senate Republicans pressed U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer about struggling soybean farmers as President Trump moves forward with a bailout for Argentina.

Why it matters: Trump's now-$40-billion bailout for Argentina is exacerbating GOP trade war fears.

Israel on Wednesday told the Trump administration that Hamas isn't doing enough to recover the bodies of dead Israeli hostages, and the Gaza deal can't move into the next phase until that changes, two Israeli officials and one U.S. official tell Axios.

Why it matters: The agreement stipulates that Hamas must make a "maximum effort" to return the bodies of the 28 dead hostages, among them two American citizens. Israel claims Hamas is not abiding by those terms.

MAGA voices are heralding the newly minted ceasefire and hostage deal in Gaza as a victory not just for President Trump, but for the America First cause.

Why it matters: For MAGA, Monday's historic images are the best argument yet against opponents who cast their movement as a medley of blundering isolationists incapable of getting a complex foreign policy win.

The U.S. is working on a multibillion-dollar rescue plan for Argentina funded by the private sector, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told a group of reporters on Wednesday.

Why it matters: Bessent said the $20 billion facility — aimed at shoring up Argentina's debt market — would work alongside the Trump administration's measures announced last week.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said that China's plans for harsh export controls risk violating a trade pact struck earlier this year, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned "they can't be trusted."

Why it matters: The Trump administration is signaling a new flare in the U.S.-China trade war, with higher import taxes on the horizon without a new truce in tensions.

There is a "clever and generous" bailout coming for farmers as soon as the government shutdown ends, National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said at an Axios News Shapers event on Wednesday.

Why it matters: The trade war has crushed the farm community, especially soybean farmers, who've seen their top export market — China — close completely.

Families across Israel — and beyond — have waited for more than 700 days for the return of their loved ones whose remains are still held in Gaza.

The big picture: Under the ceasefire agreement, Hamas is required to hand over the bodies of more than two dozen deceased hostages. However, they have claimed they don't know where all the remains are, setting the stage for the first test of the fragile peace deal, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.

The war in Ukraine has changed the way every modern military will fight its next conflict.

Why it matters: Everyone is watching Eastern Europe for an edge.

• Alistair Carns, the U.K. minister for the armed forces, described it to Axios as an "Air Force moment," akin to the period in World War I when belligerents saw the effectiveness of air power and scrambled to catch up.