"Cannon-fodder mercenaries" in Russia highlight global nature of war
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Russia's Vladimir Putin and North Korea's Kim Jong Un. Photo: Vladimir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images
American weapons could very soon kill North Koreans fighting in Eastern Europe under a Russian flag. What a wild sentence.
Why it matters: War is now global, as authoritarian regimes increasingly work together to oppose the West, supply chains criss-cross continents and technology hammers home a point Axios has made before — that oceans can no longer protect us.
Driving the news: At least 10,000 North Korean troops are in the Kursk region, encroaching on the Ukrainian border.
- Those forces are training with artillery and drones and donning local uniforms and equipment.
There are other examples of this trend:
- Iranian drones and missiles flow to a constellation of militants, including Houthi rebels in Yemen, who scare off German naval ships, chew through American interceptors and run up a tab on commercial shippers.
- Chinese machine tools and microelectronics feed foreign factories, including in Russia, where parts propel an unjust invasion.
My thought bubble: Kim Jong Un is likely trading Vladimir Putin warm bodies for arsenal advancements and a peek at modern combat. This is a grim transaction.
- "Kim Jong Un didn't hesitate to sell out [his] young people and troops as cannon-fodder mercenaries," South Korean Defense Minister Kim Yong Hyun told reporters at the Pentagon via translator.
What we're watching: When untested North Korean troops engage Ukrainians, the cloistered regime will gain battlefield experience.
- That's bad news for South Korea. It, too, spells trouble for U.S. goals abroad.
- A handpicked, bipartisan commission already warned Washington was ill-prepared for a conflict that could kick off with Russia or China and later metastasize. (The Axios piece about it was taken way out of context by the Trump campaign.)
What they're saying: "The prospect of large war, and global war, is becoming increasingly likely," George Barros, the Russia team lead at the Institute for the Study of War, said in an interview.
- "Kim Jong Un has an agenda for what he wants to do in Asia, as does Xi Jinping."
Zoom in: Russia is hemorrhaging troops. Its combat losses exceed 690,000, with casualties in some places hitting 1,200 a day.
- Subbing in North Korean soldiers is no panacea. For one, there will be language barriers, frustrating command and control.
- "The Russian mil-blogs are already talking about this huge need for Korean linguists," Barros said.
Zoom out: The Russia-North Korea arrangement drags out a fight Moscow once promised would be a blitz.
- If the contribution is a one-time thing, no biggie. But if this becomes a habit, Ukraine will feel the difference.
The bottom line: "We know that Putin has gone tin-cupping to get weapons from the Democratic People's Republic of Korea and Iran," Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said.
- "Turning to a pariah state like North Korea for troops just underscores how much trouble he is in."
