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National

Elon Musk endorsed former President Trump minutes after Trump was ushered off stage by Secret Service agents at a rally in Pennsylvania after he came under fire.

Why it matters: Musk is one of the richest men on the planet and controls of one of the world's biggest social media platforms. Trump has reportedly considered offering an advisory role to Musk, who has moved sharply to the right of the political spectrum in recent years.

Musk's tweet endorsing Trump came a day after Bloomberg reported that he had donated to a pro-Trump PAC.

"I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery," Musk wrote on X, sharing a video of Trump getting to his feet after the incident with a bloodied ear and pumping his fist to the crowd.

The Trump campaign and the Secret Service have both confirmed that Trump is safe.

The big picture: Musk has said he voted for Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden in the three previous presidential cycles.

COVID restrictions, high taxes and regulations in California also spurred an ideological shift right, and a physical move to Texas, now the home of Tesla's headquarters, Axios Zach Basu reports.

Musk's disillusionment with the Democratic Party has only accelerated — or at least, it has become more public — since his acquisition of Twitter.

Even before endorsing Trump, Musk frequently trolled Democrats and engaged with right-wing commentators who view him as a like-minded culture warrior.

The Tesla CEO's support for Trump comes despite the fact that Trump is openly skeptical of electric vehicles.

The latest: Musk later tweeted that two people had tried to kill him in the past 8 months, adding: "Dangerous times ahead."

Musk endorses Trump after shooting at rally

"I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery."

Trump pumps his fist following the incident at his rally. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Elon Musk

Donald Trump

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

Former President Trump's campaign announced a list of speakers for next week's Republican National Convention on Saturday, from rapper and model Amber Rose to TV host Tucker Carlson to investor and podcaster David Sacks.

Why it matters: Trump has been unusually restrained over the past two weeks, letting concerns around President Biden's age dominate the election discourse. But next week, controversial Republicans will take the spotlight. 

On the list of speakers are UFC CEO Dana White, Evangelical leader Franklin Graham and country music stars Lee Greenwood and Chris Janson.

Trump's eldest sons Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, Eric's wife Lara Trump and former Fox News host Kimberly Guilfoyle also have speaking spots.

Among the entrepreneurs and activists on the list are Charlie Kirk, Diane Hendricks, Perry Johnson, Vivek Ramaswamy and Steven and Zach Witkoff.

Tom Homan, former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and Teamsters president Sean O'Brien were also included.

What to watch: Trump has been courting Black and Latino voters who could give him a much-needed nudge ahead of Biden, but a few of the slated convention speakers have sparked controversy in Black and Latino communities. 

Case in point: Goya Food CEO Bob Unanue's Trump praise led to a boycott in 2020.

Go deeper: Trump skeptics planning to skip the GOP convention

Trump skeptics planning to skip the GOP convention

Trump campaign announces Republican National Convention speakers

Tucker Carlson, Dana White and Amber Rose are on the list.

Eric Trump, son of former U.S. President Donald Trump, attends a campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club 

Eric Trump, son of former President Trump, at a campaign rally at the Trump National Doral Golf Club on July 9, 2024 in Doral, Florida. Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

Republican National Convention

Israel conducted an airstrike in a designated humanitarian area in southern Gaza on Saturday which the Israel Defense Forces said targeted the commander of Hamas' military wing and the official Palestinian news agency said killed 71 people and injured nearly 300.

The big picture: The target was Hamas' top military commander, Mohammed Deif, whom Israeli officials say was one of the primary masterminds of the Oct. 7 attacks. The IDF is trying to confirm whether he was killed, a senior officer said in a briefing with reporters.

The strike took place around noon local time on Saturday in the al-Mawasi humanitarian area in Khan Younis, where displaced Palestinian civilians had been urged to seek shelter.

The latest: The IDF and Israeli intelligence said Sunday that commander of Hamas' Khan Younis brigade, Rafah Salama, was killed in the airstrike. They have not confirmed whether Deif was killed.

Zoom in: The IDF officer said Israel had intelligence that Deif — Hamas' second-most senior overall leader — was hiding in an above-ground compound.

The officer said Israel was not aware of any hostages being held in the compound, which the officer claimed was near the area housing displaced civilians but separated from it.

Images from the scene show a large crater and numerous casualties. Israeli officials say the IDF dropped five 2,000-lb. bombs on the compound.

Hamas denied Deif was targeted and said Israeli falsely claimed to have struck its military commanders as a pretext for "another massacre."

More than 38,000 Palestinians have been killed in the war, according to the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza.

What they're saying: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a press conference on Saturday that killing Deif would advance Israel's goal of destroying Hamas and send a message to Iran and its proxies — though he stressed there was no confirmation Deif had been killed. 

Asked of Al Jazeera whether Hamas will suspend negotiations for a hostage and ceasefire deal —talks the White House had said were getting closer to completion — the deputy head of Hamas' political bureau Khalil al-Haia said "all options are open" but stressed the group will not play into Netanyahu's hands.

Al-Haia denied Deif was killed and said: "Mohammed Deif heard what Netanyahu said and laughed from all the lies."

A senior Israeli official said Mossad Director David Barnea is planning to travel to Doha next week to continue the talks.

Netanyahu said the U.S. wasn't notified in advance of the assassination attempt because Israel didn't want to risk potential leaks. "We notify the Biden administration when we need to, and when we don't need to we don't."

Context: Israel has tried to assassinate Deif, one of the founders of Hamas' military wing, multiple times over the years. 

He has been seriously wounded in previous attempts and Israeli intelligence had been unsure prior to last year whether he was actively leading operations or serving more as a figurehead.

It was only after the Israeli military started its ground operation in Gaza that it found evidence, including videos, that Deif was in good medical condition and in active command.

Go deeper: Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing

Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing

Israel conducts deadly airstrike targeting Hamas' top military leader

It's not yet clear if Hamas' number two was killed.

Palestinians inspect the aftermath of the Israeli strike in Khan Yunis. Photo: Abed Rahim Khatib/Anadolu via Getty

Axios Explains: Israel-Hamas war

Israel

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

World

The column chart shows the number of mass shootings in the U.S., where four or more people were shot or killed, excluding the shooter, from January 1 through July 2 each year from 2014 to 2024. The data reveals a general upward trend over the decade, with the highest number of incidents as of July 2 occurring in 2023.

U.S. mass shootings during the first half of each year

Data: Gun Violence Archive; Chart: Axios Visuals

The U.S. is on pace to see a drop in mass shootings compared to last year, but the number of incidents so far this year has already far surpassed the mid-year totals from a decade ago, per the Gun Violence Archive (GVA).

The big picture: The country is still averaging over one mass shooting per day this year and could break over 500 mass shootings for the fifth year in a row.

"Regardless of what the numbers say — whether they are trending upwards or downwards — we have really good research and we know that these are preventable," Kelly Drane, Giffords Law Center's research director, told Axios.

"It's really important to emphasize that the solutions exist," she said. "We just need leaders who are willing to implement them and willing to do what it takes to protect communities."

Context: The decline in mass shootings comes as other forms of violent crime are falling at historic rates.

The decrease could be attributable to the waning social and economic upheavals set off by the coronavirus pandemic, Drane said, while emphasizing mass shootings are still far too common.

"It's very hopeful and promising to me that we've gotten through almost one and a half of the hottest summer months and we're still seeing this decrease," she said.

Zoom in: As of July 2, the midpoint of the year, 277 people were killed and 1,132 people were injured in 261 recorded mass shootings, according to GVA.

The data indicates the U.S. is trending well below mass shooting rates in 2021 — the deadliest year on record for such shootings incidents and gun violence in general.

So far, it's on track to see a 23% decrease in mass shootings from 2023 and a 31% and 20% decline in mass shooting deaths and injuries, respectively, according to Axios' analysis of GVA's data.

Yes, but: The data also shows the country is on pace to experience another deadly year when compared to averages over the previous 10 years up to July 2.

So far, the number of mass shootings is 19% above the 10-year average, while deaths and injuries are elevated by 20% and 27%, respectively.

Between the lines: There is no standard definition for mass shootings, and the parameters used determine statistical results. Axios has consistently used GVA's definition in its analysis and coverage of mass shootings and gun violence in recent years.

It defines a mass shooting as an incident in which at least four people are either injured or killed from gunfire, not including the shooter.

GVA's numbers tend to be higher than other mass shooting databases because its definition considers the total number of people shot or killed and does not take into account the circumstances of shootings.

Threat level: It's difficult to accurately predict how the remainder of the year may develop based solely on the mid-year data.

With the specters of political violence and terrorism looming over the remainder of 2024, it's possible this year's downward trend could shrink or reverse.

Reality check: Mass shooting deaths account for a small fraction of all annual gun homicides in the U.S.

Mass shootings rose in 2023 alongside an overall 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence.

As of July 2, more than 8,000 people died from homicides, murders, defensive gun uses and unintentional shootings involving firearms.

What's next: The number of mass shootings this year will continue to climb over this summer, which is when mass shootings and violence in general surge.

As of July 12, the number of mass shootings rose to 288 and deaths and injuries to 301 and 1,266, respectively.

Go deeper: Gun suicides account for most firearm-related deaths in U.S.

U.S. set to see another deadly year for mass shootings

The country is still averaging over one mass shooting per day.

Mass shootings

The column chart shows the number of mass shootings in the U.S., where four or more people were shot or killed, excluding the shooter, from January 1 through July 2 each year from 2014 to 2024. The data reveals a general upward trend over the decade, with the highest number of incidents as of July 2

A bar chart that displays the percentage of petitions approved by presidents since the Carter administration. The chart shows Carter with the highest approval rate at 21.6% and Biden with the lowest at 1.6% as of May.

Share of clemency petitions approved by presidents

Data: Office of the Pardon Attorney; Note: DOJ data does not include pardons by proclamation ; Chart: Axios Visuals 

A trend toward a less generous executive has emerged in U.S. clemency history. So far, President Biden has been no exception.

Why it matters: Biden has utilized the unilateral clemency authority of the executive branch in mass pardons that could potentially affect thousands. 

But beyond sweeping proclamations, Biden has used his pardon power more sparingly than his modern predecessors on ordinary pardon cases, according to Justice Department data.

Caveat: The Office of the Pardon Attorney's public statistics do not record clemency granted through proclamations or executive orders.

Biden used them to pardon prior federal offenses of simple marijuana possession and veterans convicted and forced out of the military because of their gender identity or sexual orientation. 

The big picture: Experts point to structural and political reasons for the shift toward a generally more restrained approach to clemency petitions.

Throughout U.S. history, the system has become deeply entangled in bureaucratic process, leading to a backlog of ordinary petitions, said Mark Osler, a legal scholar who advocates for sentencing and clemency reform.

What "Biden seems to be stuck with is a system of analysis that doesn't work and hasn't worked for his predecessors either," Osler said.

He pointed to a series of seven valves of review a petition must pass through — a pipeline Osler said lengthened under the Biden administration with additional input from the Domestic Policy Council.

Frank Bowman, a legal historian who has written extensively about the pardon power, cited the "nasty politics of our era" as one driving factor.

"Presidents have become hyper-cautious about making sure that they don't create the grist for the opposition mill," Bowman said.

By the numbers: President Obama granted the most acts of clemency — 1,927 pardons and commutations combined — dating back to Harry Truman, according to DOJ data. But that's just over 5% of the petitions Obama received.

As of May 2024, Biden had formally granted 153 petitions for clemency — that's 1.6% percent of all requests.

Between the lines: Biden's clemency record is likely far from closed — whether he wins the 2024 election or not. DOJ data shows that every president between Ford and Trump used his clemency power during his final days in office.

Obama issued 1,185 clemency actions in just over three months in 2017 before he left office. That's just over 61% of all of the petitions he approved.

But presidents don't always align pardons with their departures: Reagan issued around 8% of his pardons during his final three and a half months in the White House, granting over half of his pardons and commutations in his first four years.

Jeffrey Crouch, a legal scholar who has studied federal executive clemency, said: "Biden is currently at 1.6%, which is a small number, but as the sitting president, he could grant clemency at any time and boost those numbers fairly quickly."

Why presidents are wielding their pardon powers less and less

Beyond sweeping proclamations, Biden has used his pardon power more sparingly than modern predecessors.

Axios

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Musk endorses Trump after shooting at rally

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U.S. set to see another deadly year for mass shootings

Why presidents are wielding their pardon powers less and less

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