U.S. set to see another deadly year for mass shootings
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The U.S. is on pace to see a drop in mass shootings compared to last year, but the number of incidents so far this year has already far surpassed the mid-year totals from a decade ago, per the Gun Violence Archive (GVA).
The big picture: The country is still averaging over one mass shooting per day this year and could break over 500 mass shootings for the fifth year in a row.
- "Regardless of what the numbers say — whether they are trending upwards or downwards — we have really good research and we know that these are preventable," Kelly Drane, Giffords Law Center's research director, told Axios.
- "It's really important to emphasize that the solutions exist," she said. "We just need leaders who are willing to implement them and willing to do what it takes to protect communities."
Context: The decline in mass shootings comes as other forms of violent crime are falling at historic rates.
- The decrease could be attributable to the waning social and economic upheavals set off by the coronavirus pandemic, Drane said, while emphasizing mass shootings are still far too common.
- "It's very hopeful and promising to me that we've gotten through almost one and a half of the hottest summer months and we're still seeing this decrease," she said.
Zoom in: As of July 2, the midpoint of the year, 277 people were killed and 1,132 people were injured in 261 recorded mass shootings, according to GVA.
- The data indicates the U.S. is trending well below mass shooting rates in 2021 — the deadliest year on record for such shootings incidents and gun violence in general.
- So far, it's on track to see a 23% decrease in mass shootings from 2023 and a 31% and 20% decline in mass shooting deaths and injuries, respectively, according to Axios' analysis of GVA's data.
Yes, but: The data also shows the country is on pace to experience another deadly year when compared to averages over the previous 10 years up to July 2.
- So far, the number of mass shootings is 19% above the 10-year average, while deaths and injuries are elevated by 20% and 27%, respectively.
Between the lines: There is no standard definition for mass shootings, and the parameters used determine statistical results. Axios has consistently used GVA's definition in its analysis and coverage of mass shootings and gun violence in recent years.
- It defines a mass shooting as an incident in which at least four people are either injured or killed from gunfire, not including the shooter.
- GVA's numbers tend to be higher than other mass shooting databases because its definition considers the total number of people shot or killed and does not take into account the circumstances of shootings.
Threat level: It's difficult to accurately predict how the remainder of the year may develop based solely on the mid-year data.
- With the specters of political violence and terrorism looming over the remainder of 2024, it's possible this year's downward trend could shrink or reverse.
Reality check: Mass shooting deaths account for a small fraction of all annual gun homicides in the U.S.
- Mass shootings rose in 2023 alongside an overall 8-10% decrease in deaths and injuries from gun violence.
- As of July 2, more than 8,000 people died from homicides, murders, defensive gun uses and unintentional shootings involving firearms.
What's next: The number of mass shootings this year will continue to climb over this summer, which is when mass shootings and violence in general surge.
- As of July 12, the number of mass shootings rose to 288 and deaths and injuries to 301 and 1,266, respectively.
Go deeper: Gun suicides account for most firearm-related deaths in U.S.
