Behind the Curtain: The boys vs. girls election

It's Donald Trump's chest-beating macho appeals vs. Joe Biden's softer, reproductive-rights-dominated, all-gender inclusivity.

• Kellyanne Conway — the longtime Republican pollster, and former Trump campaign and White House official — calls it the "new gender gap in American politics: Biden's problem with men."

The intrigue: What's happening beneath this surface is more even interesting — and telling.

1. A huge, historic gender gap has exploded among young voters.
2. Many Black and Hispanic men have turned against Democrats — and toward Trump. A new analysis this week found 70% of Black Americans and 50% of Hispanic Americans still have an unfavorable opinion of him. But even tiny gains with either group Nov. 5 would be huge for the GOP.
3. Young women are powering a surge in liberal activism, with abortion rights helping tip elections toward Democrats in the two years since Roe was overturned. Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff, referring to the case that overturned Roe, has boiled the election down to "Dobbs and democracy."

The big picture: In theory, most of these trends should favor Biden.

• There are 3 million more women in America than men.
• And they almost always vote in larger numbers: In 2020, 74% of adult U.S. women said they voted, vs. 71% of men. That split has held true for 40+ years — in every presidential election beginning in 1980, according to the Center for American Women and Politics.
• There's also a big split in registration: 89 million women told census surveyors they were registered in 2020, vs. 79 million men. (Explore the data.)

But in most polls, Trump has led in most of the six big swing states — thanks largely to the swing in men toward Trump.

• John Della Volpe — Harvard Institute of Politics polling director, and director of Harvard Youth Poll — tells us: "For a new generation of young male voters whose first impression of Donald Trump was almost a decade ago (when they were middle school age), he's an anti-hero sticking it to a system viewed as slow, ineffectual and corrupt."
• "That image has been echoed tens of millions of times through social media, podcasters, in gamer and other communities," Della Volpe says.

Zoom in: Trump was already leading among likely male voters by 12 points before the debate, according to the New York Times/Siena poll.

• Trump's lead among men surged to 23 points after Biden's frail performance, with gains "particularly concentrated among younger men and men without college degrees," The Times reports.
• Biden's five-point lead among likely women voters ticked up to 8 points after the debate. Biden's side points out it's mostly a dead heat, with 115 days left to Election Day.

What we're watching: The prime-time lineup for next week's GOP convention says it all.

• Don Jr., the tough-talking trophy hunter, will introduce Trump's running-mate — widely expected to be Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), which would make an all-white-male ticket.

• Dana White, the macho president of the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC), the hottest sport for testosterone-charged fans, will introduce Trump, whose rhetoric and policies shoot right into the bloodstream of his male-dominated base. White, a controversial figure in his own right, apologized last year after being filmed slapping his wife at a nightclub.
• The "everyday Americans" who've been announced as speakers include typical convention fare (a rancher, a steamfitters union leader, three decorated war heroes) — plus John Nieporte, head golf pro at Trump International Golf Club in West Palm Beach, and Carrie Ruiz, golf general manager at Trump National Doral in Miami.
• Update: Tucker Carlson will have a prime-time slot, the N.Y. Times scoops.

Step back: Can you imagine a hunter, a cage-fight promoter and a convicted felon dazzling the DNC? They'd be canceled before they entered the arena.

• Now, push forward to next month's convention in Chicago, where Democrats plan a softer celebration of diversity and hard attacks on Trump's abortion plans — the one topic many Democrats believe won off-year elections and will again.
• Why? Women. It moves women voters. The stage will be full of women speakers. And Biden will be trying to get the women watching at home, and on their phones, to do on Nov. 5 what they've done in the past few elections.

Between the lines: Trump's first public appearance after his felony convictions (based on hush money to a porn star) was at a UFC fight in Newark, where he and White were greeted by a rip-roaring crowd of mostly young men.

• The thunderous and carefully choreographed entrance culminated in a viral handshake with UFC commentator Joe Rogan — whose millions of podcast listeners skew 80% male.

Not long after, Trump appeared on the popular podcast All-In, co-hosted by four towel-snapping dudes. Tech bros are a rising group of swing voters for Trump.

• Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

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