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National

Ken Griffin, the founder and CEO of hedge fund Citadel, told Politico in an interview published Sunday he would back Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) if he decides to run for president in 2024.

Why it matters: Griffin is a Republican megadonor, and his endorsement of a potential DeSantis bid is a snub toward former President Trump, who is expected to announce the launch of a 2024 presidential campaign on Nov. 14.

Griffin, who has given Republican candidates and campaigns over $57 million in the lead up to the 2022 midterms, previously ruled out supporting Trump for another presidential bid.

What they're saying: "I don’t know what he’s going to do. It’s a huge personal decision,” Griffin told Politico of DeSantis.

"He has a tremendous record as governor of Florida, and our country would be well-served by him as president," Griffin added.

"He did a lot of things really well and missed the mark on some important areas," Griffin said of Trump. "And for a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation."

The big picture: DeSantis has not publicly announced his intentions for the 2024 election, but he has also refused to answer whether he will run.

Trump mocked DeSantis at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday while discussing the 2024 election, calling him “Ron DeSanctimonious."

Go deeper: Ron DeSantis' "God ad" invokes God 10 times in 96 seconds

Ken Griffin, GOP megadonor, throws support behind DeSantis for 2024

Griffin previously ruled out supporting Trump for another presidential bid.

Ken Griffin, founder and CEO Citadel, speaking in Beverly Hills, California, in May 2022.

Ken Griffin, founder and CEO Citadel, speaking in Beverly Hills, California, in May 2022. Photo: Patrick Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

Ron DeSantis

Elections 2024

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

One of the paradoxes in breaking down the map of House races this year: Gerrymandering reduced the number of traditional swing seats on the board. But the potential for a sizable Republican wave has turned many otherwise-safe seats into competitive battlegrounds.

By the numbers: In 2020, there were 51 House districts that backed either President Biden or former President Trump by five points or less. This year, only 34 districts fit those categories.

But the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rates 64 House seats as either toss-ups or "leaning" in one direction — meaning there are a historically high number of competitive races.

Democrats are playing defense in the majority of those seats (44).

Zoom out: If Republicans only won the districts that Trump carried, they'd be in the minority. Even if they carried all the seats that Biden won by five points or less, they'd still only have a majority of 224 (R+11) — hardly a comfortable outcome for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.).

"Success this cycle required us to expand the map into double-digit Biden territory," said Dan Conston, president of the McCarthy-aligned Congressional Leadership Fund.

To that end, CLF spent a total of $57.7 million in races that Biden carried by double digits, according to Conston. That's nearly four times the amount of money the super PAC spent in districts Trump carried ($15.8 million).

Between the lines: Several of the states in which Democrats controlled the redistricting process could end up becoming "dummymanders" — a term describing an attempted gerrymander that backfires.

In Oregon, Democrats are at risk of losing three of their House seats despite drawing a map to protect the party's dominance in the state delegation. Democrats have already stopped spending for their candidate in Oregon's 5th, a district Biden carried by nine points.

In Nevada, all three Democratic-held House seats are in danger of flipping, even with a map drawn to protect their incumbents. A new Emerson College poll found Republicans were ahead in three of the four statewide House seats, with Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford in a close contest against Republican Sam Peters in the fourth. 

Even in Illinois, the Democratic-drawn political map is suddenly looking a bit shaky. Republicans are running competitively in the seat of retiring Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos. Meanwhile, the Cook Political Report moved two seemingly safe seats in the Chicago suburbs (Illinois' 6th and 14th districts) into more-competitive "lean Democratic" territory this week.

The bottom line: If Democrats lose control of their House majority, gerrymandering won't be the culprit. The political environment will often disrupt the best-laid plans (or maps!) of both parties.

The limitations of gerrymandering

It's one of the paradoxes in breaking down the map of House races this year.

Gerrymandering

San Antonio

Axios San Antonio

Texas' 28th Congressional District, a predominantly border region of South Texas, is at risk this midterms of losing its footing as a Democratic stronghold since its creation in 1993.

What's happening: Republican nominee Cassy Garcia, a former staffer of Sen. Ted Cruz, is seeking to unseat Rep. Henry Cuellar, who has represented the district for 17 years.

Why it matters: The 28th District is considered a battleground for control of the U.S. House, which Republicans have a path to reclaim this election. 

The GOP's investment in the area shows Republicans are encouraged about a potential shift in Hispanic voters to flip border areas. 

The big picture: South Texas' 34th and 15th Districts are also GOP targets, and Republicans have seen gains there. 

In a June special election, Republican Mayra Flores won over the historically Democratic, heavily-Latino 34th District. 

South Texas success would mean a win for the GOP in the House and a win with Hispanic voters on issues like border security and abortion. 

State of play: Combined, Republicans are outraising Democrats in the three key districts, but Cuellar is maintaining an edge over Garcia, according to the Federal Election Commission. 

Though a Democrat, Cuellar is considered moderate and crosses the aisle on issues like abortion. Last fall, he was the sole Democrat to vote against a federal bill protecting abortion rights. 

Garcia, who's endorsed by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, worked for the Trump administration as the commissioner for the White House Hispanic Prosperity Initiative. 

In a blitz of ads, the Republican nominee says she’s representing farmers, small business owners and border patrol. 

The intrigue: In January, the FBI conducted a "court-authorized" search of Cuellar's home and campaign office in Laredo. 

Details of the search have not been revealed, despite pressure from media outlets. 

Cuellar's attorney said authorities told him the investigation is tied to the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan, but the lawmaker is not a target, the Associated Press reported. 

Walter Wilson, a political science professor at University of Texas in San Antonio, told Axios that Cuellar's conservative-leaning stances will make the race unpredictable. 

Natasha Altema-McNeely, a University of Texas Rio Grande Valley professor, expects the candidates will try to attract undecided voters by emphasizing their positions on issues like gun control and abortion. 

The contrarian case for Democratic optimism

Corporate America plays it safe in midterms

Democrats risk losing 100% winning record in Texas' 28th District

The district has been a Democratic stronghold since 1993.

Photo illustration of Henry Cuellar tinted blue, and Cassy Garcia, tinted red, divided by a halftone line

Henry Cuellar and Cassy Garcia. Photo illustration: Axios Visuals. Photos: Bill Clark/Getty Images, Bloomberg via Getty Images

Midterm elections 2022

The majority of voters said they made up their minds about who they are supporting in the midterm elections at least two months ago — before the whirlwind of late-state campaigning and big-dollar spending.

Why it matters: The final stretch of the midterm campaign has the opportunity to sway just a sliver of voters — but in a razor-thin battle for the Senate, that small slice of voters could push one party over the edge.

Driving the news: 68% of registered voters said they made up their minds to support specific candidates in Tuesday's elections before September and 10% said they made up their minds in September, per a new NBC News poll. 

Meanwhile, 8% of registered voters said they made up their minds in October, 3% said in the last week and 2% said they decided in the last few days.

What to watch: 7% of registered voters said they still might change their mind, per the NBC News poll.

The big picture: The cost of this cycle's state and federal midterm elections is projected to exceed $16.7 billion, per Open Secrets.

Federal candidates and political committees are expected to spend $8.9 billion.

The Senate races that are likely to determine control of the chamber have been among the most expensive, with Pennsylvania leading the pack. 

In fact, five of the 10 most expensive congressional races are Senate races rated toss-ups by the Cook Political Report, Open Secrets notes. 

Flashback: As of Sept. 20, more than $4.8 billion had already been spent on the 2022 federal elections, per Open Secrets. 

Zoom in: As of Oct. 21, outside groups spent more than $58.9 million after Oct. 4, when the Cook Political Report shifted the Pennsylvania Senate race from leaning Democrat to a toss-up, per Open Secrets.

State of play: High-profile politicians were out on the trail this weekend in a final sprint before Tuesday, issuing stark warnings about what's at stake in the midterm elections. 

"Sulking and moping is not an option," former President Obama said in Pennsylvania, AP reports.

"On Tuesday, let’s make sure our country doesn’t get set back 50 years."

Former President Trump, in a rally also in Pennsylvania over the weekend, said: "If you want to stop the destruction of our country and save the American dream, then on Tuesday you must vote Republican in a giant red wave," per AP. 

Go deeper... 3 presidents target Pennsylvania for 2022 closing arguments

Crazy midterm stat: Big chase for tiny slice

68% of registered voters said they made up their mind in Tuesday's elections before September.

eople check in for early voting at a polling location at Bank of America Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Charlotte, North Carolina

People check in for early voting at a polling location at Bank of America Stadium on Nov. 5 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Photo: Sean Rayford/Getty Images

Fox News Sunday-9 21 51 Am - 9 23 35 Am-2022-11-06

House Majority Whip Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) told "Fox New Sunday" he believes "democracy will be ending" if Democrats lose the 2022 midterms.

The big picture: Many Democrats, including President Biden, have said they believe U.S. democracy is under threat by Trump-backed election deniers running for office in the midterms.

Clyburn walked back a previous comment in which he said a loss for Democrats would be the end of the world, saying he "misspoke," but does believe candidates that have denied the results of the 2020 presidential election do threaten U.S. democracy.

What he's saying: "Democracy will be ending. The world will continue to exist" if Democrats lose, Clyburn said. 

"The world will not end. The kind of world we have, the kind of country we have — we've got to decide how we want to exist in this world, and that's what we're talking about," he added.

Clyburn said he sees similarities between the U.S. democracy today and Germany's democracy in the 1930s before Hitler came to power.

"I've studied history all of my life. I taught history. And I'm telling you, what I see here are parallels to what the history was in this world back in the 1930s in Germany."

Go deeper: RNC chairwoman McDaniel says Republicans will accept midterm results after process plays out

Rep. Clyburn: "Democracy will be ending" if Dems lose the midterms

He walked back a previous comment in which he said a loss for Democrats would be the end of the world.

James Clyburn

Mcdaniel Cnn

Republican National Committee chairwoman Ronna McDaniel said Sunday that "we'll accept the results" of the midterms as long as the "process [plays] out."

Why it matters: McDaniel's remarks come as some Republican candidates running for office have refused to say whether they will accept the results of the midterms.

Driving the news: "You should have a recount, you should have a canvass and it will go to the courts and then everybody should accept the results, that's what it should be," McDaniel said Sunday on CNN's "State of the Union." 

"I'm also not going to say if [there are] problems, we shouldn't be able to address that. If [there are] real problems, everybody should be able to address that." 

"Every election is run differently at the county level, at the precinct level, so we want to make sure it's run fair and transparently and then we'll let the process play out and then we'll accept the results," she said.

Between the lines: McDaniel also said Sunday that election deniers "is not what the American people are caring about right now."

What she's saying: McDaniel said that "nobody should be intimidating" voters, after asked about right-wing activists in Arizona gathering around ballot drop boxes to monitor voters.

"Do not break the law, do not attack or intimidate people who are trying to vote," she said, also adding, "don't intimidate our poll watchers."

"We're having that right now too, where our poll watchers are not being allowed to meaningfully observe, that's an important part of our democracy," she said. 

"[Both sides] should be able to meaningfully observe so that we can go out and say, listen, we saw it and it went well."

Go deeper... Arizona's attorney general comes back into the fold on 2020 election

McDaniel: Republicans will accept midterm results after process plays out

"I'm also not going to say that if there are problems, we shouldn't be able to address that."

Photo of RNC chairwoman Ronna McDaniel on CNN's State of the Union. 

Data: #WeCount/Society of Family Planning; Map: Jacque Schrag/Axios

The number of abortions performed in the U.S. fell by about 6% after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, according to data from the Society of Family Planning.

The big picture: Many states in which abortion remains legal saw significant increases in the number of procedures performed, suggesting that plenty of women traveled out-of-state to obtain access.

By the numbers: There were roughly 5,000 fewer total abortions, nationwide, in both July and August — the two months following the court's ruling — than there were in April. 

But in states with bans and severe restrictions, there were about 8,000 fewer abortions each month — a decrease of 95%. Abortions also decreased, albeit more modestly, in states with less severe restrictions.

America's red-state abortion wipeout

Several states saw the number of abortions drop to less than 10 a month.

Axios

Sunday's top stories