National

Kevin McCarthy is learning you can get torched when you try to make everyone happy, especially after an insurrection.

Why it matters: The House Republican leader had been hoping to use this year to build toward taking the majority in 2022, but his efforts to bridge intra-party divisiveness over the Capitol siege have him taking heat from every direction, eroding his stature both with the public and within his party.

The latest proof: McCarthy's digital director, Caleb Smith, sent a blast email to a group of GOP communications staff Saturday afternoon asking them to show their support for his boss.

The subject line read:  "{GOP-New-Media} Retweet Request," according to a copy of the email obtained by Axios.

Smith wrote: "HuffPost and the Blue Checks have been out in full force today trying to distort Leader McCarthy's words in an effort to divide America even further. They deserve to be called out. Would greatly appreciate your help in pushing back by retweeting this: https://twitter.com/GOPLeader/status/1353057765015449610."

What they're saying: "We're eating sh*t for breakfast, lunch and dinner right now," a McCarthy aide told Axios. The aide requested anonymity to speak frankly about his boss's situation.

Pressure is mounting on McCarthy financially, politically and publicly.

Corporate donors are freezing him out for challenging the Electoral College vote on Jan. 6. 

The media is lampooning him for initially saying "the president bears responsibility" for the Capitol attack but amending that last week to say, “I don’t believe he provoked it, if you listen to what he said at the rally."

McCarthy also got hit for saying during an interview this weekend that "everyone" bears responsibility for the political temperature in the country.

Meanwhile, the pro-Trump wing of his conference is angry with him for not condemning Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) more forcefully after she voted to impeach Trump.

Driving the news: McCarthy explained his comments on Thursday during an interview this weekend with van Susteren. He also signaled limits to his support for Cheney, the conference chair and No. 3 House Republican.

"Look, I support her, but I also have concerns," he said, adding there are “a lot of questions” she needs to address during a conference meeting later this week. 

Kevin McCarthy's rude awakening

The GOP leader is trying to appease all sides, and getting burned in the process.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy is seen speaking during a news conference.

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

Politics

Kevin McCarthy

Politics & Policy

Democrats are preparing a mix of tech and legal strategies to combat expected gerrymandering by Republicans, who are planning to go on legal offense themselves.

Why it matters: Democrats failed to regain a single state legislature on Election Day, while Republicans upped their control to 30 states' Houses and Senates. In the majority of states, legislatures draw new congressional district lines, which can boost a party's candidates for the next decade. 

Redistricting experts and advocates are especially concerned about political gerrymandering this year, given a 2019 Supreme Court ruling that blocks politics-based gerrymandering lawsuits from federal courts.

"I think this is going to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, fight of next cycle," Kelly Ward Burton, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, told Axios.

What to watch: The expected flashpoints are the battleground states of Florida, Texas, North Carolina and Georgia — where Democrats failed to gain any control over redistricting.

Adding to the party's concern is that, because of another federal court ruling, Republicans won't have to gain pre-clearance for their plans under the Voting Rights Act.

For their part, Republicans will be ready to sue Democrats in states where they control redistricting, particularly Oregon, Nevada and New Mexico, Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, told Axios.

The backstory: Republicans gained sweeping control of the redistricting process in 2011. Over the past decade, Democrats have fought in court against some of their subsequent congressional maps with a few notable wins, such as in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Democrats have built new, sophisticated mapping technologies, and Republicans have been working on a 50-state redistricting database to help them identify their best tactics.

Both sides are educating legislators and the public about redistricting rules.

Democrats have had people on the ground in nine states for over a year, training state legislators and building out grassroots campaigns, Burton said.

Democrats already have a large network of attorneys and organizations on their side, many of whom were involved in the surge of election lawsuits last year and the last round of gerrymandering litigation.

"There was criticism — fair or not — that following 2010, Republicans were more prepared than the Democrats," said Marc Elias, a top Democratic attorney and NDRC general counsel. "I can assure you that will not be true in 2021." 

Kincaid, the Republican redistricting executive, said Democrats "had a chance to win at the ballot box, and they failed. ... Republicans draw maps that favor Republicans, and Democrats draw maps to favor Democrats."

The next big political war: redistricting

Democrats are preparing a mix of tech and legal strategies to combat expected gerrymandering.

Illustration of two hands holding markers like crossed swords, one marker is red one marker is blue. 

Redistricting

2020 election

Vaccine distribution, pandemic data and a cross-party comity dominated today's virtual meeting between White House officials and a bipartisan group of lawmakers, Senator Angus King told Axios.

Why it matters: Given Democrats' razor-thin majority in both chambers of Congress, President Biden will have to rely heavily on this group of centrist lawmakers — dubbed the "Sweet 16" — to pass any substantial legislation.

"If you were just listening on the call, I don't think you would have been able to tell who were the Republicans and who were Democrats and who were independents," said King (I-Maine).

Details: National Economic Council Director Brian Deese led the Sunday afternoon meeting, and several other top White House officials also joined the video call. 

It was the largest meeting between the Biden administration and senators since Wednesday's inauguration.

What he's saying:  "There's absolute consensus" that the administration and Congress' main priority needs to be speeding up the rate of vaccination, King said.

The group plans to work closely with the White House to gather data about where the "bottlenecks" are in the current distribution system. 

King added that the senators asked for data to back up the administration's pandemic  proposal. "You know, how did they arrive at the numbers that they have?"

One big question they need to solve, King said, is how much unspent money from the previous coronavirus packages can be reallocated to the Biden package.

Timing: King said that while the administration did not lay out a specific timeframe, there was general consensus that this next stimulus bill should be done sooner rather than later.

However, looming in the background is the impeachment trial for former President Trump, which is roughly two weeks away.  

King said "it would be desirable" to start moving on the next relief package before then, but "whether that's going to be possible I just don't know."

Vaccinations, relief timing dominate Sweet 16 call

President Biden will have to rely heavily on this group of centrist lawmakers to pass any major legislation.

Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., speaks during a news conference with a group of bipartisan lawmakers

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.V.) speaks during a news conference in December with a group of bipartisan lawmakers. Photo: Caroline Brehman/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Bipartisanship

A progressive coalition is pressuring Chuck Schumer on his home turf by running a digital billboard in Times Square urging the new majority leader to end the Senate filibuster.

Why it matters: Schumer is up for re-election in 2o22 and could face a challenger, and he's also spearheading his party's broader effort to hold onto its narrow congressional majorities.

The backdrop: Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are currently negotiating a power-sharing agreement to operate the new 50-50 Senate. Whether the 60-vote filibuster rule will endure is at the center of their stalemate.

Driving the news: Just Democracy, a coalition of more than 40 progressive groups led by Black and brown organizers seeking to reform government, created and paid for a week-long billboard in the heart of Schumer's district starting Monday.

The ad boasts quotes from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, former President Obama and ex-Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, all condemning the filibuster. None of them is working in conjunction with the organizers on the billboard.

Of note: Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive beacon, won't quell speculation she's considering challenging Schumer for his seat.

What they're saying: “Democrats gained control of the Senate because of Black and Brown organizers and voters," Stasha Rhodes, campaign director for 51 for 51 and a member of the Just Democracy coalition, said in a statement to Axios. "Now they have a chance to remove the biggest impediment to the legislation those voters care about most — voting rights, healthcare, a serious COVID rescue package and more."

Another group, Fix Our Senate, ran a full-page ad in Sunday's New York Times that also pushed Schumer to end the filibuster.

Progressives pressure Schumer to end filibuster

Schumer is up for re-election in 2022, and could face a challenger from the left in his home state.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Photo: Win McNamee / Getty Images

Chuck Schumer

The U.S has confirmed more than 25 million coronavirus cases, per Johns Hopkins data updated on Sunday.

The big picture: President Biden has said he expects the country's death toll to exceed 500,000 people by next month, as the rate of deaths due to the virus continues to escalate. 

The White House last week unveiled a barrage of executive orders aimed at increasing supplies and data related to the pandemic, while mandating masks in federal buildings. 

Where it stands: Part of Biden's "wartime" strategy against the pandemic is a campaign to administer 100 million doses of the COVID-19 vaccine in 100 days. But even that effort would not dramatically increase the pace of vaccinations, the Washington Post and Wall Street Journal report.

Just over 3 million Americans have received both doses of either the Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech vaccines as of Saturday, per CDC data. 

More than 40% of people in the U.S. currently live in areas that only have 15% of ICU beds available, per an AP analysis. 

1 in 13 Californians have tested positive for the coronavirus since the start of the pandemic, per the COVID Tracking Project (CTP). The state surpassed 3 million cases on Wednesday.

What to watch: In the CTP's latest weekly roundup, hospitalizations "are declining or flat in every state but New York" in data seen from Jan. 13 to Jan. 20. 

U.S. surpasses 25 million COVID cases

The rate of deaths due to the virus has continued to escalate.

Silhouette of someone in a winter jacket standing in front of a lighted stadium 

A mass COVID-19 vaccination site at Dodger Stadium on Jan. 22 in Los Angeles, California. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images

Health Care

Coronavirus

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Axios AM

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

The GOP is getting torn apart by a spreading revolt against party leaders for failing to stand up for former President Trump and punish his critics. 

Why it matters: Republican leaders suffered a nightmarish two months in Washington. Outside the nation’s capital, it's even worse.

Much of the party's base — including conservative talk radio, TV and social media — are spoiling to fight for Trump in exile. 

On top of that, Trump himself is threatening to literally split the party in two with the creation of a new MAGA Party or Patriot Party, The Washington Post reported. 

When I asked Trump adviser Jason Miller about those plans, he issued a warning to Republican senators who are weighing whether to convict Trump in next month's impeachment trial: 

"The president has made clear his goal is to win back the House and Senate for Republicans in 2022," Miller said. "There’s nothing that's actively being planned regarding an effort outside of that, but it’s completely up to Republican senators if this is something that becomes more serious."

Step into almost every Republican state or district, and most voters are livid that Republican leaders didn't fight more to overturn the election, resist impeachment, back Trump, punish House Conference Chair Liz Cheney and protest big business for blacklisting its members. 

The Arizona Republican Party voted yesterday to censure three faces of the Republican establishment — Cindy McCain, Gov. Doug Ducey and former Sen. Jeff Flake — and reelected state party chair Kelli Ward, a fierce Trumper.

The 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump are being hit with swift punishment, including brewing primary challenges, censure votes and public scoldings, the N.Y. Times reports (subscription).

Some House Republicans, egged on by right-wing media, are pushing an uphill fight to oust Cheney from her third-ranking leadership post. In Wyoming, she faces a long-shot primary challenge.

The bottom line: This will be the new reality for Republicans until 2024, or Trump fully exits the scene.

The counterforce to Trump — mainly some establishment media figures and smattering of elected members — is too weak, timid and divided to prevail right now. 

GOP implosion: Trump threats, payback

This will be the new reality for Republicans until 2024, or Trump fully exits the scene.

Spotted last week on a work van in Evansville, Ind. Photo: Sam Owens/The Evansville Courier & Press via Reuters

Republican Party

Donald Trump

Data: New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax; Chart: Axios Visuals

There’s a growing consensus among Americans who want President Biden to cancel student debt — but addressing the ballooning debt burden is much more complicated than it seems.

Why it matters: Student debt is stopping millions of Americans from buying homes, buying cars and starting families. And the crisis is rapidly getting worse.

By the numbers: Student debt — which stands at $1.55 trillion — is the biggest category of debt Americans owe, aside from mortgages.

Most borrowers are white, but Black college graduates owe an average of $25,000 more than their white counterparts.

According to a new Harris Poll survey, 64% of Americans support canceling some student debt, and 55% support canceling all of it.

What's happening: Biden has proposed immediately cancelling $10,000 of federal student loan debt for every borrower. The move would cost around $370 billion.

That would eliminate debt for the 15 million borrowers who owe $10,000 or less. And it's a broad-based approach that would help all 42 million borrowers.

Yes, but: Here's what that alone wouldn't do: 

It wouldn't make much of a difference for the nearly 30 million borrowers who owe more than $10,000. Many of them went to graduate school and owe hundreds of thousands.

It wouldn't stimulate the economy. Student debt stops many from investing or buying property, which is a drag on the economy, but canceling a small amount of debt wouldn't change that, experts say.

It wouldn’t target the most vulnerable borrowers. Canceling the same amount of debt for all doesn’t account for the fact that many Americans with student debt are also among the most well-educated and high-earning individuals. 

It wouldn't help future borrowers. “The problem with forgiving student debt is that every day we’re making new loans in this broken system,” says Adam Looney, an economist at the University of Utah. “You’ve not solved the problem.”

Insurmountable student debt is a recent phenomenon, Looney says. It's been growing at six times the rate of the U.S. economy, and it's only getting worse.

There are no limits on how much students can borrow and few restrictions on how they spend the money. 

And, on top of that, the cost of college and graduate school is skyrocketing. As a result, young people are borrowing sums of money they can’t possibly repay and many are using that money to pursue degrees at online or for-profit colleges with higher than average dropout rates.

What we're watching: Among the American public, canceling debt isn't a fringe or far-left idea any more.

In the Harris Poll survey, 78% support putting restrictions on the price of a university education. And 59% support no tuition at public universities.

The limits of Biden's plan to cancel student debt

Student debt — which stands at $1.55 trillion — is the biggest category of debt Americans owe, aside from mortgages.

Education

Student debt

Business

Joe Biden

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

In a world where most Americans are isolated and forced to laugh, cry and mourn without friends or family by their side, viral moments can offer critical opportunities to unite the country or divide it. 

Driving the news: President Biden's inauguration was produced to create several made-for-social viral moments, a tactic similar to what the Democratic National Committee and the Biden campaign pulled off during the Democratic National Convention.

During the pandemic, crowds can't always be relied on to provide energy and footage, so the moments have to be choreographed by the event organizers.

The selection of Amanda Gorman, who went viral following her widely praised poetry reading, was one of several made-for-TV inauguration moments designed to inspire millions of disenfranchised Americans just two weeks after the Capitol was attacked on live television.

The choice of Capitol Police officer Eugene Goodman, who faced down rioters outside the Senate chamber on Jan. 6, to escort Kamala Harris before she was sworn in as vice president made for another viral moment. 

A stunning fireworks display accompanied Katy Perry as she closed out an evening of well-rehearsed, well-produced musical acts and speeches, including a gathering of three former presidents offering words of encouragement to Biden and the country. 

Yes, but: Throughout his presidency, Donald Trump often strategically used television moments to assert dominance or pit the country against itself.

Police used tear gas to clear a path for Trump to pose with a bible in front of St. John's  Church during racial justice protests.

He also triumphantly removed his mask in front of cameras while standing on a White House balcony as he recovered from his COVID-19 infection.

Even as the pandemic raged, he used crowds at rallies in an effort to project strength and defiance of the virus.

The big picture: Throughout 2020, television was one of the safest ways millions of Americans could experience live entertainment and share cultural references. A few key moments, some planned and some not, stood out:

The fly on Mike Pence's head during the VP debate.

April's "One World: Together at Home" performance featuring dozens of celebrities.

"Tiger King" became the most-discussed streaming series in the early days of quarantine.

Steve Kornacki became a national infatuation during election week.

"The Last Dance" became appointment viewing for much of the country on Sunday nights in the spring.

The bottom line: Made-for-TV moments can bring the country together when millions were scared and mourning. Expect the Biden administration to lean into the power of TV in a way that strategically paints the nation in a good light.

Why made-for-TV moments matter during the pandemic

The inauguration was produced to create several made-for-social viral moments.

Photo illustration of two old fashioned televisions with intertwined antennas playing footage from the Inauguration

Photo illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios. Photos: Erin Schaff-Pool, Biden Inaugural Committee via Getty Images

Media

Television

Police in Russia on Saturday arrested more than 3,300 people as protesters nationwide demanded that opposition leader Alexey Navalny be released from jail.

Details: Demonstrations began in the eastern regions of Russia and spread west to more than 60 cities. 

At least 3,324 of people were detained and tens of thousands of others protested into the night despite the presence of law enforcement and extremely low temperatures, per a statement Sunday from the OVD-Info group, which monitors political arrests.

Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny's wife, was among those arrested, according to multiple reports citing her Instagram account.

The big picture: Navalny called on his supporters to protest after he was arrested, per Al Jazeera.

Thousands of people gathered in Moscow to march to the Kremlin, The New York Times writes. Meanwhile, protesters in Novosibirsk, Russia's third-largest city, were chanting "Putin is a thief."

Navalny called his supporters to protest after he was arrested, per Al Jazeera.

What they're saying: U.S. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said in a statement on Saturday that it strongly condemned "the use of harsh tactics against protesters and journalists this weekend in cities throughout Russia." 

"Continued efforts to suppress Russians' rights to peaceful assembly and freedom of expression, the arrest of opposition figure Aleksey Navalny, and the crackdown on protests that followed are troubling indications of further restrictions on civil society and fundamental freedoms," the State Department continued, calling on Russian authorities to release all protesters, as well as Navalny, without conditions.

"We urge Russia to fully cooperate with the international community's investigation into the poisoning of Aleksey Navalny and credibly explain the use of a chemical weapon on its soil," it added.

Context: The Russian opposition leader was arrested upon his return to Moscow from Germany on Jan. 17, which came five month after a near-fatal poisoning with the nerve agent Novichok. He blamed the Kremlin for the poisoning, though the Kremlin has denied responsibility.

Navalny returned despite being warned that he would be arrested.

He was then ordered to remain in pre-trial detention for 30 days.

Background: Navalny made his name as a video blogger and anti-corruption activist. He has organized some of the largest protests against President Vladimir Putin, who refuses to refer to him by name.

Editor's note: This article was updated to reflect the latest number of arrests.

Over 3,000 detained in protests across Russia demanding Navalny's release

Yulia Navalnaya, Navalny's wife, was among those arrested, per her Instagram account.

Russian policemen beat participants of an unauthorized protest rally against of jailing of opposition leader Alexei Navalny, on January 23, 2021 in Moscow, Russia. 

Russian police officers beat protestesters at a rally against of jailing of oppositon leader Alexei Navalny in Moscow on Saturday. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

World

Russia

Conflicts, policies and powers are intersecting and shaping the world. Breaking news and analysis of national security, foreign policy and global crises.

Arizona Republican Party members voted on Saturday to censure prominent GOP figures Cindy McCain, Gov. Doug Ducey and former Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who've all faced clashes with former President Trump.

Why it matters: Although the resolution is symbolic, this move plus the re-election of the Trump-endorsed Kelli Ward as state GOP chair shows the strong hold the former president has on the party in Arizona, despite President Biden winning the state in the 2020 election. 

Driving the news: McCain, widow of Trump nemesis Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.), endorsed Biden for president last September.

Flake is a longtime Trump critic who joined the "Republicans for Biden" group last August.

Ducey endured tirades from Trump after he didn't overturn Biden's win in the state, per Axios' Jonathan Swan. 

AZCentral notes the governor was censured over emergency measures in response to the pandemic, which the state GOP said "restrict personal liberties and force compliance to unconstitutional edicts."

Of note: All three of those censured attended Biden's inauguration last Wednesday.

What they're saying: Ward, who's filed unsuccessful lawsuits attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election, described herself as a "Trump Republican" who'll "always put America first, who believes in faith, family and freedom," AP reports.

Ducey's political director Sara Mueller said in a statement the people behind the inconsequential resolutions "have lost whatever little moral authority they may have once had."

McCain tweeted after the vote, "It is a high honor to be included in a group of Arizonans who have served our state and our nation so well...and who, like my late husband John, have been censured by the AZGOP. I'll wear this as a badge of honor."

Editor's note: This article has been updated with new details throughout.

Arizona Republicans censure Cindy McCain and GOP governor

It shows the strong hold Trump still has on the GOP in Arizona, despite Biden winning the state in the 2020 election.

Combination images of  Cindy McCain and Gov. Doug Ducey 

Combination images of  Cindy McCain and Gov. Doug Ducey. Photo: FilmMagic/FilmMagic for U.S.VETS/Michael Brochstein/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

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