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National

House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said on CNN's "State of the Union" Sunday that if the allegations that President Trump pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate Joe Biden are true, then Democrats may have no other choice than to impeach him.

State Of The Union With Jake Tapper-9 23 35 Am - 9 24 38 Am-2019-09-22

"The president is pushing us down this road and if in particular — after having sought foreign assistance and welcomed foreign assistant in the last presidential campaign as a candidate, he is now doing the same thing again but now using the power of the presidency — then he may force us to go down this road. I've spoken with a number of colleagues over the last week and this seems different in kind and we may very well have crossed the Rubicon here."

Why it matters: Schiff has been one of the key senior members of Democratic leadership — along with Speaker Nancy Pelosi — to resist endorsing impeachment without public support. This has put him at odds with over half the Democratic caucus and House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler (D-N.Y.), who has said his committee is already conducting an "impeachment investigation."

Schiff acknowledged that it's not clear yet whether Trump's alleged pressure on Ukraine is at the center of the whistleblower complaint that set off this controversy, but said that it would nonetheless be "the most profound violation of the presidential oath...perhaps during any presidency. There is no privilege to engage in underhanded discussions."

Between the lines: Pelosi knew Schiff's impeachment comments were coming. She and Schiff spoke this weekend about Ukraine and coordinated their responses, a source familiar with their conversation tells Axios' Alayna Treene.

The other side: Trump told reporters before boarding a flight on Sunday that the conversation he had with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on July 25 was perfectly legitimate: "[It] was largely congratulatory, was largely corruption, all of the corruption taking place. It was largely the fact that we don't want our people, like Vice President Biden and his son creating to the corruption already in the Ukraine.“

Schiff called on Trump to release the transcript of the call after the president claimed that there was no "quid pro quo" involved in their discussion about Biden: "Clearly he's afraid for the public to see."

Go deeper: Read the intel watchdog's letters about "urgent" whistleblower complaint

Schiff: Impeachment may be the only remedy if Trump pressured Ukraine on Biden

"This seems different in kind and we may very well have crossed the Rubicon here."

Politics

Adam Schiff

Politics & Policy

Democrats in swing seats are more comfortable supporting new gun restrictions than they were just a few years ago, but most still aren't on board with Beto O'Rourke's "hell, yeah" stance on confiscating assault weapons.

Why it matters: Some vulnerable Democrats up for reelection next year are nervous that too much attention is being paid to mandatory gun buyback programs — thanks to Beto — ahead of 2020.

Sens. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) and Tina Smith (D-Minn.), and Reps. Cindy Axne (Iowa-3), Susie Lee (Nev.-3) and Angie Craig (Minn.-2), all told Axios they don't support mandatory buybacks for assault rifles.

Some 2020 presidential candidates also refuse to go as far as Beto: Andrew Yang and Sen. Amy Klobuchar support voluntary buyback programs, and the plan by Sen. Elizabeth Warren includes a mandatory assault weapon registration or buyback.

Yes, but: Joe Biden and Sens. Kamala Harris and Cory Booker support mandatory assault weapon buyback programs.

Our thought bubble: Regardless of the divide within the party, O'Rourke has successfully shifted the debate so that expanded background checks or an assault weapons ban look more modest by comparison.

The big picture: Democrats' divisions on buybacks reflect America's divisions. Just over half of Americans polled by Monmouth University said they somewhat or strongly opposed the idea of an assaults weapons buyback program

Vulnerable Democrats worry Beto puts too much focus on guns

Democrats' divisions on mandatory gun buybacks reflect America's divisions.

llustration of a giant hand in a suit holding a tiny AR-15

Guns

The Trump administration is eyeing a new trade deal with Iceland amid the U.S. trade war with China and tensions with Europe, officials tell me.

Why it matters: A potential deal isn't about Iceland’s economy, which offers little to the U.S. from a financial perspective. But the Arctic country is strategically located, and the president's national security team has emphasized the importance of investing in the region.

Between the lines: The discussions follow Denmark's blunt rejection of Trump's flirtations about buying Greenland. They also come at a time when China has sought to incorporate Iceland into the Belt and Road Initiative, and as Russia asserts its dominance in the Arctic Circle.

"There is a national security importance to that region — being able to strike trade deals and build an alliance with us and not China or Russia," one administration official said.

Remember, Vice President Mike Pence added Iceland as a leg on his recent swing through Poland and the U.K.

Behind the scenes: During a Senate GOP lunch last Tuesday, attended by Pence, Sen. John Kennedy strongly encouraged the administration to push forward with a free trade deal with Iceland, according to multiple senators in the room.

Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski then gave a similar vote of confidence and said she would support such an agreement.

Pence told them that there is a working group exploring a deal and that he is "amenable" to the idea.

I asked several other Republicans senators whether they would support a free trade agreement with Iceland.

Most said the topic caught them off guard when it came up during the lunch, but that they're open to it.

Worth noting: Iceland has had a free trade agreement with China since 2014.

Trump eyes free trade agreement with Iceland

The Arctic country is strategically located and has national security benefits.

Illustration of President Trump looking at a world map with Iceland highlighted

Trade agreements

World

Conservative leaders are circulating data to White House staff that claims adults who vape will turn on President Trump if he follows through with his planned ban on flavored e-cigarettes, Axios has learned. 

Between the lines: The data (shown below) reveals that the number of adult vapers in key battleground states greatly outweighs the margins by which Trump won those states in 2016 — and they argue it could cost him reelection.

What we're hearing: "While parents may be concerned about e-cigarettes, the people who genuinely care about vaping as a voting issue so far outweighs the number of people Trump needs to win in 2020 that they are royally screwing themselves by doing this," Paul Blair, the director of strategic initiatives at Americans for Tax Reform, tells me.

Suburban moms concerned about vaping "don't have the same voter intensity on this as adult vapers do," an industry lobbyist said.

Florida, which Trump won by 113,000 voters, had about 873,000 adult vapers in 2016. They reason that if 1 in 8 vapers turn against Trump in 2020 because he foreclosed their vaping options, it could jeopardize the election.

Why it matters: If Trump backs away from proposed enforcement policy, it would be the second time in recent weeks that political concerns prompted him to dial back government regulations.

Trump's openness this summer to expanded background checks cooled after the gun lobby and campaign advisers warned about bad internal polling.

Our thought bubble: There are four unsubstantiated assumptions about adult vapers in the case being presented to Trump:

They wouldn't vape anymore if they couldn't get the flavors.

They are single-issue voters around vaping rights.

The eventual Democratic nominee would be more vape-friendly.

Still, the math can't be totally ignored, especially in places like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where Trump's 2016 win margins were so narrow and the number of adult vapers is relatively high.

By the numbers: More than 4 million people in swing states regularly used e-cigarettes in 2016, according to FDA-funded survey data published last year in the Annals of Internal Medicine. 

Industry experts say that number has increased significantly in recent years.

Data: Mirboulouk, et. al, 2016, "Prevalence and Distribution of E-Cigarette Use Among U.S. Adults: Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2016", Census Bureau, Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon/Axios

Behind the scenes: The White House scheduled a listening session with conservative groups last Thursday after receiving intense backlash from GOP leaders and industry execs following the announcement of the ban.

Among the invitees: The Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Goldwater Institute, AFT and the Vapor Technology Association.

But roughly 24 hours after invitations went out, the meeting was canceled. 

"They’re in chaos mode on this stuff because the backlash has been so resoundingly overpowering," one invitee said. 

A White House official says the meeting is expected to be rescheduled.

The bottom line: The political pressure points regarding the ban have gotten Trump's attention.

Shortly after the proposed ban was announced, Trump tweeted that he still likes vaping as an alternative to cigarettes.

Trump's 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale also hit back at a Trump follower who tweeted that banning vaping products is "not on brand with MAGA." 

One administration official said the tweets were prompted by a flood of criticism from conservative leaders.

GOP allies warn vaping ban will sink Trump in 2020

The number of adult vapers in key battleground states greatly outweighs the margins by which Trump won those states in 2016.

E-cigarette

Health Care

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah) on Sunday responded to allegations that President Trump pressured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Joe Biden and his son, condemning them as "troubling in the extreme" and tweeting that it's "[c]ritical for the facts to come out."

Why it matters: Romney's comments are the harshest to come from a Republican senator thus far, with others largely remaining silent or dismissing the allegations as gossip. It's worth noting, however, that both Trump and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani confirmed on Sunday that the president discussed Biden during a July 25 phone call with Zelensky, though they contend that there was no "quid pro quo" involved.

The big picture: This is not the first time that Romney, a former presidential candidate, has spoken out against Trump. After the release of the redacted Mueller report in April, Romney tweeted that he was "sickened at the extent and pervasiveness of dishonesty and misdirection by individuals in the highest office of the land, including the President."

But despite his condemnation of Trump's behavior at various points, Romney has never gone as far as Democrats in specifically calling for Trump to be investigated or impeached.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said on Sunday that if the administration continues to block a whistleblower complaint involving Trump and Ukraine from being released, "they will be entering a grave new chapter of lawlessness which will take us into a whole new stage of investigation."

Go deeper: Trump confirms he discussed Biden with Ukrainian president

Romney condemns Trump-Ukraine allegations as "troubling in the extreme"

Mitt Romney

Joe Biden

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

Walmart, which first banned assault weapon sales and now vaping products, is providing a template of how CEOs can move beyond a monomaniacal focus on profits.

Why it matters: It’s one thing to sign an unenforceable pledge to think more about employees and society, like most members of the Business Roundtable did. It’s another to take specific action while politicians dither.

In conversations with a half-dozen CEOs this week, we were stunned by how much pressure business leaders are feeling to take social action. If so, here’s what they can do:

JPMorgan Chase, Starbucks, Walmart, Amazon and many others increased their minimum wage [Updated]. Every CEO has the power to do this.

Delta Airlines returns billions in profits to employees — this year, a bonus equal to 14% of their annual pay — and has grown since making this change. Every company can do this. 

Amazon this week became the first to sign The Climate Pledge to be net zero carbon across the businesses by 2040 — a decade ahead of the Paris Accord's goal of 2050. An individual company can’t put a dent in overall pollution — but a bunch might.

Stripe, the online payment platform, announced last month that it plans to spend at least $1 million a year to pay for direct removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Stripe said in its emissions announcement: "For other companies: Please reach out to Stripe to join our commitment."

Bank of America last year stopped lending money to makers of military-style assault weapons. 

Dick’s Sporting Goods paid a price in its earning after it initially made it harder to buy firearms in its store, but then went even further this year.

They could also limit CEO pay if they wanted to narrow the gap in their own shop. 

All retailers control what’s on their shelves, so if they want to eliminate AR-15s, or vaping, or whatever — free enterprise permits it.

All companies control child care, family leave and health policies and can be as generous as they choose. 

The big picture: The new public assertiveness by corporations follows an earlier wave, after President Trump took office, of CEOs taking stands on immigration, climate, gender equality and other issues that their predecessors avoided. 

Apple's Tim Cook, who has become increasingly vocal, said at a Fortune conference last year: "Apple is about changing the world. It became clear to me some number of years ago that you don’t do that by staying quiet on things that matter."

The bottom line: The pressure on CEOs from employees, customers and communities seems to only be intensifying.

How CEOs trump politicians

The pressure on CEOs from employees, customers and communities seems to only be intensifying.

CEOs

Business

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Ayman Odeh, the leader of the Arab Joint List, recommended to Israeli President Reuven Rivlin on Sunday that Benny Gantz, the leader of the centrist Blue and White Party and the main opponent of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, form the next Israeli government. 

Why it matters: This is the first time since 1992 that an Arab party in Israel has recommended one of the candidates for prime minister. The recommendation by the Arab Joint List brings the number of members of the Israeli parliament who support Gantz to 57, compared to 55 for Netanyahu. Since Netanyahu and Gantz virtually tied in last week's election, Odeh's move almost guarantees that Gantz will receive the mandate from Rivlin to form a government.

The big picture: The fact the Arab Joint List recommended Gantz is a huge development in Israeli politics and in the integration of the Arab minority population in Israeli society. It's even more meaningful when considering that Gantz was a former chief of staff of the Israeli Defense Force, and that two of his running mates are also former IDF chiefs of staff. 

Israel's Arab Joint List endorses Benny Gantz in bid to oust Netanyahu

This is the first time since 1992 that an Arab party in Israel has recommended one of the candidates for prime minister.

Axios

Sunday's top stories

Schiff: Impeachment may be the only remedy if Trump pressured Ukraine on Biden

Vulnerable Democrats worry Beto puts too much focus on guns

Trump eyes free trade agreement with Iceland

GOP allies warn vaping ban will sink Trump in 2020

Romney condemns Trump-Ukraine allegations as "troubling in the extreme"

How CEOs trump politicians

Israel's Arab Joint List endorses Benny Gantz in bid to oust Netanyahu

Trump confirms he discussed Biden with Ukrainian president

Iran to Western powers: "A limited aggression will not remain limited"

Greek police arrest TWA Flight 847 hijacking suspect

Warren surges to top spot in Iowa poll