National

Soybeans farmers are seeking to save their trade relationship with China as President Trump's ongoing trade war threatens to dismantle the market, the Wall Street Journal reports. 

The big picture: Retaliatory Chinese tariffs on soybeans have sunk exports, chipping away at one of agriculture's most profitable products. In 2017 alone, the U.S. shipped $21 billion in soybeans abroad — tripling numbers from the past two decades. But in 2018, that number fell 74% by volume, leading to recent prices paid to U.S. farmers plummeting to a seven-year low.

What they're doing: Soybean interests are doing their best to maintain their existing relationships, the Journal notes.

The Soybean Export Council will host a trade exchange for Chinese customers in Illinois next month.

Jim Sutter, the chief of the council, also visited one of China's largest grain traders in April to discuss resuming relationships once the tariff situation ends. 

Director of the American Soybean Association Joe Steinkamp recently met with Chief Agricultural Negotiator for the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative Gregg Doud to discuss his worries about a thinning market burdening young farmers with difficult financial conditions.

Cargill Inc., a commodities company, spoke out against Trump's proposal to add tariffs to $300 billion worth of Chinese products in a June letter to U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer.

Where it stands: The administration earlier this year issued a second aid package worth $16 billion to affected farmers, while last year's announced package was worth $12 billion. Yet, the tariffs still remain as China begins to seek alternative suppliers and other soybean giants -- mainly Brazil -- creep in on the market. 

Go deeper: Trump declares China trade truce

U.S. farmers fight to save Chinese soybean relationships

Chinese tariffs are threatening to dismantle the market.

Photo: Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images

Politics

Agriculture

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Southern California was rocked with a 6.4 magnitude earthquake on Thursday, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. No deaths have been reported to this point.

The big picture: "The quake was the largest in Southern California since the 7.1 Hector Mine quake struck the Twentynine Palms Marine Corps base in 1999," the LA Times notes. 

Biggest earthquake in 20 years hits Southern California

"Since the 7.1 Hector Mine quake struck the Twentynine Palms Marine Corps base in 1999."

U.S. News

Earthquakes

Axios AM

As President Trump catches heat for his Fourth of July celebration, set to include tanks, aircraft demonstrations and a primetime speech, it's worth looking back at how previous presidents spent the holiday. 

1986: President Ronald Raegan and First Lady Nancy Raegan watching the start of Op Sail from Governor's Island in New York Harbor.

President George H.W. Bush on a golf coarse. 

1990: President George H.W. Bush checking his bandaged hand while golfing at the Cape Arundel Golf Club. 

1996: President Bill Clinton watching a bald eagle take flight during a ceremony at the Patuxent Naval Air Station. 

President George W. Bush surrounded by troops and a woman and an America flag vest.

2007: President George W. Bush on a visit to the West Virginia National Guard 167th Airlift Wing. 

President Obama and the First Lady meeting a group of folks. 

2014: President Barack Obama and First Lady Michelle Obama meeting military families on the grounds of the White House. 

Go deeper: Cost of Trump's July 4 event: TBD

In photos: How previous presidents spent Fourth of July

Presidents

2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

Politics & Policy

AccuWeather is predicting as much as $12.5 billion in damages throughout the Midwest after months of flooding has ravaged the region, according the the Wall Street Journal.

Catch up quick: The first half of 2019 is on its way to becoming the wettest on record due to snowmelt and flooding, largely in the Midwest, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The ensuing damage has been extremely costly to Midwestern infrastructure and industries, particularly with agriculture. 

Officials in Iowa are estimating the first round of flooding alone cost the state $2 billion in losses. 

Illinois' state transportation department estimates more than 1,000 miles of road will require cleaning. 

In Nebraska, only 10 of the 21 bridges that had to be closed have reopened, and repairs on the rest may not be finished until fall 2020. 

Where it stands: "All but two of the 15 states through which the Missouri and Mississippi rivers flow have received federal disaster declarations for storms and multiple rounds of flooding this spring," the Journal notes.

But the repairs will still be timely, and many states will still continue experiencing economic losses while waiting. 

Go deeper: June sets temperature records around the globe

Midwest racks up as much as $12.5 billion in 2019 weather damage

Flood damage has subjected the region to serious losses.

Weather

Extreme weather

News and analysis of the scientific advances fueling AI and quantum computing, revolutionizing biology and medicine, and tackling climate change. Science is changing the world and colliding with the global politics that shape it.

Science

Breaking climate science and policy coverage as extreme weather events reshape communities. Keep tabs on the race to a low carbon economy, which may be bumpy as governments, climate tech startups and major oil and gas companies race to find their niche amid the changing energy landscape.

Energy & Climate

It could be a while before we know how much President Trump's July 4 celebration will cost the taxpayers, since the expense of military activities like providing the M1 Abrams tanks and other armored vehicles won't be determined until long after it's over, the Washington Post reports.

Why it matters: Trump's military display — an element that traditionally hasn't been included in Independence Day celebrations — has been controversial and is sure to prompt more questions about the total cost. The Post reports that the air show alone could cost as much as $2 million, in addition to the $2.5 million the National Park Service is diverting to cover the event.

Cost of Trump's July 4 event: TBD

The military costs won't be determined until long after it's over.

A Bradley armored vehicle and soldiers in front of the Lincoln Memorial

A Bradley Fighting Vehicle on the National Mall Wednesday. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

Fourth of July

Donald Trump

President Trump is considering an executive order to try to move forward with a citizenship question on the 2020 census, top sources tell Jonathan Swan and me.

"We didn’t come this far just to throw in the towel," said a senior administration official with direct knowledge of the conversations.

Administration lawyers are exploring various legal options.

A senior legal source said: "The administration is considering the appropriateness of an executive order that would address the constitutional need for the citizenship question to be included in the 2020 census."

But there is considerable skepticism within the administration that an executive order would succeed.

Why it matters: Trump's insistence on pushing ahead with the question, potentially without doing the legwork the Supreme Court called for, reflects his expansive view of executive power.

A source familiar with some of the administration's internal deliberations said: "I think that there’s a good argument to be made that even though the president may lose in litigation at the end of the day, going through that process ultimately makes it clear that it’s the chief justice, and not the Executive Branch, that bears responsibility for that unfortunate outcome."

Former federal judge J. Michael Luttig, who has longtime ties to officials in the administration, told Axios:

"If the president of the United States were to issue an executive order, supported by his full Article II powers, directing that the citizenship question be included in the 2020 census, I believe the Supreme Court would affirm the constitutional power of the president to include the citizenship question in the census.”

How we got here: The Supreme Court voted last week to block a census question that asks: "Is this person a citizen of the United States?"

But it gave the administration an opening to try again, if it could come up with a more persuasive argument about why it was adding the question.

Trump administration officials, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, said Tuesday they would go ahead with the 2020 census without including the citizenship question.

But Trump threw some of his own senior administration officials into confusion on Wednesday morning by tweeting that it was “fake” news that the Commerce Department was dropping its quest to include the citizenship question.

In the hours following the president’s tweet, administration lawyers scrambled to figure out alternatives.

Trump considers executive order on citizenship question

"We didn’t come this far just to throw in the towel."

Demonstrators at the Supreme Court with signs saying "Every person counts"

Demonstrators protest the citizenship question at the Supreme Court in April. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

Census citizenship question

Rep. Justin Amash, the only Republican who supports impeaching President Trump, announced in a Washington Post op-ed this morning that he's leaving the Republican Party and "declaring my independence."

Between the lines: The Michigan congressman faced a primary challenge over his support for impeachment that would have been tough, if not impossible, for him to win. This way, the libertarian-leaning Amash can try to keep his seat as an independent or go out on his own terms. "Preserving liberty means telling the Republican Party and the Democratic Party that we’ll no longer let them play their partisan game at our expense," he wrote.

Justin Amash leaves the GOP

The only Republican to support impeachment would have faced a tough primary challenge.

Amash at a town hall meeting in May. Photo: Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

Justin Amash

Data: U.S. Census Bureau, Axios research; Get the data; Chart: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

America is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse, on its way to becoming majority non-white in 2045 — but some parts of the country are changing more rapidly than the rest.

Why it matters: That's worth remembering as we celebrate July 4 at a time of accelerating changes and political upheaval. The counties seeing the greatest relative increase in racial and ethnic diversity are among the least diverse places in the country — particularly in the Midwest. 

How we made this: Using Census data, we calculated a diversity index for every county in the United States going back to 2009. Each number represents the probability that two people chosen at random will be of a different race or ethnicity.

The counties in the map are shaded by the percent change in the index value from 2009 to 2017.

The big picture: The country as a whole has a diversity score of 57.3, which means that there is about a 57 percent chance that two people chosen at random will be of a different background.

Since 2009, the country's diversity index has increased about 5 points.

The most diverse counties tend to contain a big city or be near one. Queens County, N.Y.  is the most populous (2.3m), most diverse (76.4) county we found using our measure. 

Miami-Dade County (49.9) is less diverse than the country as a whole, mainly because 70 percent of its population is Hispanic.

Of all counties with more than 1 million people, the least diverse by far was Allegheny County (35.7), which is home to Pittsburgh. 

The least diverse counties tend to be more rural, have smaller populations, and are farther from the coasts. In those places, a small influx of people can have a dramatic effect on its diversity score.

Population isn't everything. Hawaii County, which encompasses the state's Big Island, has the highest diversity score of all counties we analyzed (77.8), with a population of just 196,000. 

Some places are actually becoming less diverse — including Miami-Dade County as well as Hidalgo County, Texas (15.3), home of McAllen, Texas. Over 90 percent of Hidalgo's population is Hispanic.

Many counties along the U.S. Mexico border in a similar situation: they're majority Hispanic and becoming even more so, decreasing their diversity index.

Where America's diversity is increasing the fastest

Some of the most rapid changes are happening in the least diverse places in the country.

Diversity

An appeals court has rejected the Trump administration's emergency request to block a federal judge's ruling that prevents it from using military funds to pay for its southern border wall.

Details: In a 2-1 ruling Wednesday, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit said that "a stay of the district court’s order granting Plaintiffs an injunction is not warranted." The administration's expected to appeal the decision, per the Wall Street Journal. But it's another setback for Trump and his 2016 campaign promise ahead of the 2020 election. 

Go deeper: Trump declares national emergency to access $3.6B for border wall

Trump border wall setback: Appeals court won't allow military funds use

It's the latest setback for Trump and his 2016 campaign pledge ahead of the 2020 election.

A metal fence marked with the US Border Patrol sign prevents people to get close to the barbed/concertina wire covering the US/Mexico border fence, in Nogales, Arizona, on February 9, 2019.

Trump border wall

North Korea's mission to the United Nations said in a statement on Wednesday the U.S. is "obsessed with sanctions" and "more and more hell-bent on hostile acts."

The big picture: Pyongyang's delegation to the U.N. made the comments despite Sunday's meeting between President Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at which they agreed to resume stalled nuclear talks and a top U.S negotiator signaling flexibility in negotiations.

Context: The representatives made the comments in response to a U.S. accusation that North Korea breached a cap on refined petroleum imports and a letter dated June 29, sent by the United States, France, the U.K. and Germany to all UN member states calling on them to implement sanctions against Pyongyang, Reuters notes.

"What can’t be overlooked is the fact that this joint letter game was carried out by the permanent mission of the United States to the U.N. under instruction of the State Department, on the very same day when President Trump proposed for the summit meeting."

North Korea's mission to the United Nations' statement

Go deeper: In photos: Trump and Kim hold historic meeting

North Korea says U.S. "hell-bent on hostile acts" despite Trump-Kim talks

Pyongyang issues scathing statement, despite Trump-Kim talks.

President Donald Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un stand on North Korean soil.

President Trump and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un at the DMZ in North Korea. Photo: Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

North Korea sanctions

World

North Korea

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