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The second night of the first Democratic primary debate of the 2020 cycle broke records with 18.1 million people tuning in on live television across NBC, MSNBC and Telemundo, according to a press release from NBC.

Why it matters: Executives were expecting modest viewership for the first Democratic primary debates of the 2020 cycle, largely due to the fact that a single candidate has not emerged as the standout media star. But debate viewership on the second night of the 2-day event broke records for the most-watched Democratic primary debate in history. 

Yes, but: The debate may have broken records for Democratic primary debates, but it didn’t beat overall primary debate records. Last cycle’s first Republican debate, which featured President Trump on stage as a political candidate for the first time, drew a whopping 24 million live viewers.

Be smart: Media coverage and social media buzz after the first night of debates may have driven viewers to tune in for night two.

Sound issues on NBC’s end, and a fiery spat between Texas contenders Rep. Beto O’Rourke and former HUD secretary Julian Castro, also drove media attention to the event.

By the numbers: The second night of the debate brought in 18% more household viewers than Wednesday's preliminary debate, which received 15.3 million views via live television.

The ratings are calculated by media measurement company Nielsen, which determines live household viewership of television programming for most major networks.

Millions more people watched the debate via streaming, although streaming numbers are hard to compare to television viewing numbers precisely.

NBC News said livestreams of both nights of the debate exceeded more than 9 million viewers.

The bottom line: Interest in the 2020 election is alive and well, according to television viewership numbers of the first Democratic debate; but it doesn’t look like this cycle will draw Trump-level mega-interest like the last presidential election. 

First 2020 primary debate breaks viewership records

Viewership on the second night of the 2-day event broke records for the most-watched Democratic primary debate in history.

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After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

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HOMESTEAD, Fla. — In the blaring sun, at least nine Democratic presidential candidates have stood on stepladders this week to peer into the migrant detention center here where approximately 2,600 teenagers are being held.

Why it matters: The immigration crisis is becoming the defining issue of the 2020 election — at least for now — as Democrats criticize not only the conditions in which these children are being held, but also the Trump administration's handling of young migrants who have come to the U.S. with their parents.

Activists set up stepladders on Miami-Dade County property across the road from a building — on federal property — that houses 13- to 15-year-olds, hoping to catch a glimpse of and cheer on the detainees who occasionally emerge from the facility.

A few told me that sometimes the kids — some wearing bright orange hats — wave back, but only when they’re with certain guards who are more lenient.

Some of the 16- to 18-year-old detainees sleep in tents, though I'm told that all sleeping quarters are air-conditioned — a necessity in the Florida heat, which sent sweat streaming down the faces of everyone there while I visited.

People are there before and after candidates visit and the circus that follows them dies down. Many of those I talked to — some still in college, some as old as 80 — said things like: "It just felt bad not doing anything about this, so I had to come."

44-year-old Ali Wicks-Lim drove from Massachusetts to visit the facility with her 8- and 14-year-old daughters. "How could it be possible that it’s not OK for my children to witness what these other children are living?" she asked. "Shielding them and pretending it’s not happening will grow them into adults who don’t know enough to care."

Those at the site said they hope the candidates continue to talk about Homestead even when Florida doesn't have the nation's attention thanks to the first Democratic presidential debates in Miami.

File From Ios

The backdrop: The facility is supposed to hold teenage migrants aged 13 to 18 for around 20 days at the most, per the New York Times, until they're sent to a "licensed shelter that has comfortable living accommodations and a full education program."

But Democrats say they can't get a straight answer from the facility's personnel on just about anything — including how long some of these children have been detained.

"No one can truly give me the average stay for the kids," said Florida Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who's been granted access to tour the facilities. "I hear 44 [days], 60, 30."

The state of play: Earlier Friday, 2020 candidates Sen. Kamala Harris, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Julián Castro, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, John Hickenlooper and Marianne Williamson visited the detention center. Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Beto O'Rourke visited earlier this week.

While they were allowed inside the building into the processing area, none were allowed to tour the facilities.

Harris and Gillibrand left after they gave brief remarks. Castro and Buttigieg had genuine exchanges with people, including Castro speaking with a Latina mom there with her children, who asked him "If something happens to me, what’s going to happen to my kids?"

What they're saying: "What the hell are they hiding?" asked Castro, who has visited Homestead several times, during his remarks. "We were stonewalled today by an administration and a private contractor who does not want us to see what's behind those walls."

"Part of the strength of our nation is supposed to be that we have strong arms which will embrace or protect anyone facing harm," said Harris. "But that’s not what we see from this administration because this is an administration that prefers to beat people down rather than lift them up."

Buttigieg said he asked about the sleeping conditions while briefly inside the building and was told that there are six children to a room, but for those sleeping in a "bay," there are more than 100 people in that room. "You and I paid for this place," he told the crowd. "What is being done in that building is being done in our country and with our money. ... Let’s make sure for certain this is America’s last-ever for-profit child prison."

Go deeper: America's only for-profit detention center for migrant children

On the ground at Homestead's migrant detention facility

"It just felt bad not doing anything about this, so I had to come."

The view that most activists get into the Homeland, Fla. migrant detention facility. Photo: Alexi McCammond/Axios

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2024 will be an election year like no other, as President Biden seeks re-election amid economic uncertainty, two wars and questions about his age. His likely foe, former President Trump, faces felony charges and vows revenge on his political enemies. Meanwhile, Americans generally are dissatisfied with those choices and are divided over immigration, race, education and more.

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Carmakers are in a tough spot: Global auto sales are slowing faster than they can reinvent themselves as transportation service providers. 

Why it matters: It will be years before investments in new technologies like electric, self-driving cars pay off — if ever. With sales stagnating in major markets like the U.S. and China, and traditional sources of revenue drying up, carmakers are slashing fixed costs and contemplating their place in the new order.

Driving the news: Ford is the latest automaker to announce layoffs, this time in Europe, as part of a broader corporate restructuring that aims to slash $25.5 billion in operating costs over the next few years.

Ford said it would cut 12,000 jobs, close 5 plants, and trim shifts at 2 other factories throughout Europe.

The announcement follows news in May that it would eliminate 7,000 salaried positions worldwide.

Ford is hardly alone. GM, Nissan, Honda, Daimler, Tesla, Fiat Chrysler, Jaguar Land Rover and Audi have all announced job reductions in the past 6 months, totaling at least 38,000 people, Bloomberg reports. And more cuts are likely.

What they're saying: "The industry is right now staring down the barrel of what we think is going to be a significant downturn," Bank of America Merrill Lynch analyst John Murphy said at a recent Detroit forum, adding that the pace of decline in China "is a real surprise," per Bloomberg.

The timing couldn't be worse, just as companies are ramping up spending on new technologies — $225 billion on electrification between now and 2023, and another $85 billion on autonomous vehicles, says global consulting firm AlixPartners.

Industry profits began falling in 2017, and return on capital employed is shrinking toward levels not seen since the Great Recession, a studyfrom the firm found.

Mark Wakefield, co-leader of AlixPartner's automotive and industrial practice, warns of a "multi-year profit desert" the industry will have to crawl through.

What to watch: In the midst of the turmoil, automakers need to figure out what role they will play in the new transportation ecosystem, Wakefield tells Axios.

The largest players will likely continue to invest heavily in EVs and AVs in hopes of dominating the field in a winner-take-all fight, he says.

Others will be more strategic, putting together pieces of the mobility puzzle with partnerships but not controlling the game.

"Your starting position matters," Wakefield says. "Big OEMs want to play a bigger role. Smaller companies are willing to sell pick axes to gold miners."

Go deeper: Billion-dollar bets on electric vehicles await payoff

Automakers' big profit squeeze

Their new investments will take years to pay off.

Automakers

Transportation

The Supreme Court agreed Friday to hear a set of lawsuits challenging President Trump's effort to end DACA, the Obama-era immigration program that shields roughly 700,000 children from deportation. 

Why it matters: The move tees up a high-stakes, high-profile immigration ruling next year during the heat of the 2020 campaign.

Where it stands: Trump sought in 2017 to end the DACA program, which defers deportation for undocumented immigrants who were brought to the U.S. as children. 

But two federal appeals courts have blocked that effort, faulting the administration's rationale for ending the program.

The Justice Department had tried to prod the Supreme Court to take up the issue quickly, but the justices turned away those immediate requests and sat on the issue for months.

What's next: The court will hear the case during its next term, which begins in October.

Politically charged cases on abortion and the Affordable Care Act could also be heading the court's way in time for the 2020 election, although the justices today turned away one such case — a challenge to some of Alabama's abortion restrictions.

Go deeper: The Supreme Court's historic day

Supreme Court will hear case on whether Trump can end DACA

It sets up a high-profile immigration ruling during the 2020 campaign.

Photo: Jonathan Newton/The Washington Post via Getty Images

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The Yankees and Red Sox will meet twice at London Stadium this weekend in the first Major League Baseball games ever played in Europe.

Why it matters: Since taking office four years ago, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred has vowed to increase baseball's international presence, and the London Series is the league's most ambitious effort yet.

Previous trips abroad included Japan and Mexico, both of which have robust baseball cultures. By comparison, most people in the U.K. know next to nothing about the sport, something MLB views as both a challenge and an opportunity.

Details: MLB is making baseball education a priority this weekend, while also ensuring that fans get the true "ballpark experience."

Education: Explanations of certain plays will appear on the scoreboard, and concession stands will sell portable radios to help confused spectators follow along.

Experience: Groundskeepers will dance to "Y.M.C.A." ... Fans will sing "Sweet Caroline" ... "The Freeze" is flying in from Atlanta to chase down some fans ... There will be a mascot race between Freddie Mercury, Winston Churchill, King Henry VIII and the Loch Ness Monster.

Also, get this: Vendors walking up and down the aisle is a foreign concept to most Londoners, so concession workers have been trained on how to make fans feel comfortable paying from their seats.

"We're going to ask people to hand their money down the row of strangers and then have a bag of peanuts tossed over to them by a hawker. That's not something they're used to."

Charlie Hill, VP of MLB International (via NYT)

Photo: Victoria Jones/PA Images via Getty Images

London Stadium is a 60,000 seat stadium in the Stratford district that was built for the 2012 Summer Olympics and is currently home to West Ham United of the English Premier League.

"The area on the ground, including the running track, is so vast that it required 141,900 square feet of artificial turf, imported from France, to cover it, plus the infield dirt and clay shipped in from Slippery Rock, Pa," per NYT.

"One unique feature is that home plate will be on one side of the oval — not one of the ends — creating vast amounts of foul territory. Most fields in oval-shaped stadiums, like the old Polo Grounds and Olympic Stadium in Montreal, had home plate tucked into one end, or in a corner."

London to host first MLB games in Europe

The league wants to increase its international presence.

Big Ben engulfed by a mountain of baseballs

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Shifts in technology and media are changing the way we play, watch and understand sports. Business models are adapting and social change is forcing those in charge of teams and leagues to reconsider decades-old practices.

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While Sen. Kamala Harris' confrontation with former Vice President Joe Biden will likely steal most of the postgame headlines from Thursday's second round of the Democratic debates, there were a few other major takeaways worth noting.

The state of play: Democrats are not united on everything. If one of the more progressive Dems won, they'd still have plenty of moderates telling them to get real and stop trying to offer free college to everyone or abolish private health insurance.

Sen. Bernie Sanders seemed like a sidelight: Nearly everyone else could name the first issue they'd push as president but he couldn't, or wouldn't, choose. (Biden, seeming to misunderstand the question, said: "[T]he first thing I would do is make sure that we defeat Donald Trump, period.")

Pete Buttigieg had a moment of blunt honesty when asked why the diversity of the South Bend police force hadn't improved during his two terms as mayor: "Because I couldn't get it done. ... I am determined to bring about a day when a white person driving a vehicle and a black person driving a vehicle, when they see a police officer approaching, feels the exact same thing."

Go deeper ... Kamala Harris' night: Schools Biden on busing

Debates highlight the space between 2020 Democrats

2020 Democratic debates

Joe Biden

Data: U.S. Treasury; Graphic: Chris Canipe/Axios

The U.S. Treasury yield curve has now been inverted for more than a month — meaning the 3-month bill is paying a higher interest rate than the 10-year note.

Why it matters: An inversion of Treasury bond yields is a near-perfect recession indicator that economists at the Federal Reserve recently called "the best summary measure" for an economic downturn.

How it works: Investors demand higher payment for loaning out money for longer periods of time. Bonds are essentially loans, so it follows that a bond that does not return a lender's cash for 10 years would pay more than one that returns the cash in 3 months. 

An inversion of the Treasury curve means the exact opposite is happening. Either investors see a higher chance they'll get paid back in 10 years than in 3 months by the U.S. government (the world's most secure borrower), or they see inflation being so flat that money invested today will be worth a little less in 10 years than it is worth in 3 months.

Neither says positive things about the market's view of the economy.

The yield curve inverted in March and in May, but for very short periods of time, and other parts of the curve inverted as far back as December.

Yes, but: It's not time to put money under the mattress just yet. Many market watchers, including top economists and some of the world's biggest asset managers, believe that the extraordinary measures the Fed took after the Great Recession have fundamentally altered the market and things are different this time.

However, many of them said things were different when the yield curve inverted in 2000 and 2006, too.

There is a bright spot: An inversion doesn't signal a recession is coming immediately. Typically, it takes 6 to 24 months after an inversion for a recession to begin, and stocks perform well.

The yield curve and what it says about the economy

An inversion is considered "the best summary measure" for an economic downturn.

President Trump playfully told Russian President Vladimir Putin that his country shouldn't meddle in the 2020 presidential election during their meeting at the G20 summit in Osaka on Friday, per the AP.

Why it matters: Trump's statement to Putin came only after being pressed by a reporter on the issue during their appearance before the press corps. The meeting comes nearly one year after their controversial summit in Helsinki where Trump refused to publicly stand up to Putin's assertion that Russia did not interfere in the 2016 presidential election.

Go deeper: Putin talks Trump ahead of first official meeting since Helsinki

Trump to Putin: "Don't meddle in the election"

The president's tone to the Russian leader was playful.

Donald Trump Russia

Casinos and gambling websites, already adept at tilting long-term odds in their favor, are getting a leg up from technology that could inject even more certainty into their profit calculations.

The catch: Experts worry that tweaks nudging gamers to play more — and bet bigger — could propel some toward excess and addiction.

The big picture: AI and data analytics are making it easier to forecast even the most uncertain outcomes. As we reported Monday, technology firms have built a massive new economy on the ability to accurately predict people's behavior.

For marketers, this means unprecedented access to the tiny, personalized levers that are most likely to get you — yes, you! — to buy or do something.

If you're being sold ice cream, no big deal. But for the millions of people with gambling problems, a lot can ride on a $50 offer for free play or a comped hotel stay — perfectly tailored and timed to hit home.

"For youth or players with serious gambling problems, the negative impacts of AI-based marketing and gambling operations can be devastating and even life-threatening," says Keith Whyte, executive director of the National Council on Problem Gambling.

What's happening: Where pit bosses once kept tabs on players and doled out offers by feel, technology is now supercharging marketing and promotions that best influence each individual gambler.

Casinos are "tracking everything you do," says Andrew Engel, general manager for gaming at DataRobot, an AI startup. "They know how much you're in for, how much you play, how long you play, what types of games you like to play." 

They've been collecting information for decades, mostly through longstanding loyalty programs. "It's a hell of a lot of data," says Anthony Chong, CEO of data analytics startup IKASI.

Details: To entice people to spend more, casinos use their troves of data to tweak every aspect of the gambling experience — from marketing and casino layout to the incentives and freebies that get people through the door and then keep them inside. And a world of vendors has popped up to help:

IKASI lets casinos predict who will spend big — or lose big — and target them with the right incentives to keep them playing. The startup says it's working with regional casinos as well as a big chain with 20-plus locations.

Optimove allows casinos to fine-tune marketing campaigns, and lists giant chains like Caesars and MGM among its clients.

DataRobot lets non-experts use AI for behavioral forecasting, helping small casinos catch up with the giants. It can also tell them how to rearrange machines and table games for maximum profit.

"From a public health perspective, this is a big concern," says Silvia Kairouz, director of the Lifestyle and Addiction Research Lab at Concordia University in Montreal.

"The vast majority of gamblers gamble with a budget," says James Whelan, co-director of the Institute of Gambling Education and Research at the University of Memphis.

But for the minority prone to gambling problems, targeted marketing "can be destructive," Whelan says.

Casinos themselves are tight-lipped about their marketing and data science. Several declined interviews or didn't respond to requests from Axios.

But a look at what U.S.-based companies are doing in Macau, Asia's gambling mecca, offers a hint of what's next.

There, casinos are using hidden cameras, facial recognition and AI analytics to gauge gamblers' play and tailor incentives for each, Bloomberg reports.

What they're saying: Casino defenders say the worries are overblown, and that analyzing playing data can help problem gamblers rather than hurt them.

"I don't believe that more efficient offers are just all of a sudden going to trigger problems for large numbers of people," says Alan Feldman, a former MGM executive who chairs the Nevada State Advisory Committee on Problem Gambling.

Several companies, like BetBuddy and Mr Green, say they can automatically flag problematic gambling habits based on dozens of risk factors and intervene.

"The industry is constantly exploring new and emerging technologies, like artificial intelligence, to gain a deeper understanding of our customers and provide the right resources for our customers to enjoy our products in a responsible manner,” says Elizabeth Cronan of the American Gaming Association.

Casinos are using AI for even greater advantage

But nudging gamers to play more could propel some toward excess and addiction.

Illustration of piles of gambling chips arranged as a bar graph.

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Technology

Artificial Intelligence

From the Valley to D.C., Big Tech players like Facebook, Google and Amazon are under more scrutiny than ever as new technology develops and privacy and antitrust concerns grow in lockstep with companies’ ambitions.

Sen. Kamala Harris confronted former Vice President Joe Biden about his comments about working with segregationist senators and opposing federally-mandated busing in the 1970s — drawing from her own personal experience as being "part of the second class to integrate her public schools."

Why it matters: Harris took control of the night by not waiting for the NBC moderators to bring up segregation. She addressed Biden directly, repeatedly going over her time. She positioned herself as a product of history, but future-oriented and raring to change things in a way that Biden isn't.

A big question is who voters can picture onstage with President Trump. Harris was tough but also showed emotion, per Axios' Alayna Treene.

2020 Democratic Candidates Debate-night No. 2-10 03 37 Pm - 10 08 06 Pm-2019-06-27

"I do not believe you are a racist and I agree with you when you commit yourself to the importance of finding common ground. But I also believe — and it's personal and it was hurtful to hear you talk about the reputations of two United States senators who built their reputations and career on the segregation of race in this country. It was not only that, but you also worked with them to oppose busing. There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools, and she was bused to school every day. That little girl was me. So I will tell you that on this subject, it cannot be an intellectual debate among Democrats. We have to take it seriously. We have to act swiftly."

Biden fumbled his response, not pausing to acknowledge her life experience, and tapping out before he was cut off:

It's a mischaracterization of my position across the board. I did not praise racists. The fact is that, in terms of busing, the busing, I never — you would have been able to go to school the same exact way because it was a local decision made by your city council. ...

I supported the ERA from the very beginning. I'm the guy that extended the Voting Rights Act for 25 years. ... I've also argued very strongly that we, in fact, deal with the notion of denying people access to the ballot box. I agree that everybody, once they, in fact — anyway, my time is up. I'm sorry.

How it's playing ... Stephen Colbert on a special live edition of CBS' "The Late Show": "I believe in global warming, because Kamala Harris was on fire."

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