Axios

As high as those oil prices flashing on TV are, underlying market conditions are even worse — and so is the unfolding global economic pain.

Why it matters: Headline-grabbing futures prices — bets on where oil prices are headed — are far below the cost of increasingly scarce physical shipments.

Tomatoes are suddenly one of the biggest drivers of grocery inflation — even as other food prices cool.

Why it matters: The spike shows how tariffs, war-driven energy costs and real-time supply shortages can collide — pushing up prices for a single staple even as overall grocery inflation stays muted.

U.S. inflation surged in March as the effects from the Iran war hit consumer wallets: The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9%, the biggest monthly increase since 2022, while the annual measure climbed to its highest level in two years.

Why it matters: The first inflation report of the war era captures the higher costs Americans faced last month — with knock-on effects still reverberating through the economy.

The fate of the "petrodollar" hangs in the background of the energy shock from the Iran war.

How it works: The term refers to the fact that oil trades globally in dollars: billions and billions of them spent every day all around the world.

• The oil market creates a permanent, built-in global demand for dollars.
• It's a big reason the U.S. currency sits at the center of the world financial system.
• "When you think about the dollar as the world's dominant currency, the petrodollar is right at the heart of that," says Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints" and director of the Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The intrigue: There are a few risks now. Iran currently sells oil priced in the Chinese currency, the yuan, and if sanctions lift, it could start selling even more oil that is not denominated in dollars.

• Plus, Iran is also seeking to charge a toll on traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
• There's talk of the toll being charged in yuan or crypto.
• A non-dollar toll would be a threat to the petrodollar system, says Fishman.

Zoom in: There's a lot of nervousness among global companies trying to navigate the situation in Iran, says Safiya Ghori-Ahmad, senior director with APCO Worldwide, a public affairs and strategic communications firm.

• "What that leads to over time is diversification away from the dollar."

Yes, but: It's something that economists have warned about for a long time, but for the moment the dollar dominates the oil market and economy. No one is saying this would change overnight.

• Iran may even be seeking to toll the strait in order to get more dollars, Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, tells Axios.

The bottom line: This is a defining moment for "Pax Dollar," says Ken Rogoff, the Harvard economist and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund who warned that the U.S. ripping up trade agreements could destabilize the dollar in a recent book, "Our Dollar, Your Problem."

• What's happening now, he says, is more momentous: "This is really bigger than 'Liberation Day.'"

Americans are spending an average estimated $158/month on their home electric bills, per a new Axios analysis of data collected and shared by climate newsroom Heatmap News.

Why it matters: Tensions over rising energy bills and power-hungry AI data centers are emerging as a key political issue, and should be a potent force in this year's midterms.

• Americans are also paying more for other forms of energy, like auto gas, amid the Iran war — though the ceasefire deal could lead to some relief, if it holds.

You can't fix a supply problem by boosting demand — and it would be counterproductive for countries to try to stimulate their way out of the pain of the Iran war's energy shock.

The big picture: That is a key message from Kristalina Georgieva, the International Monetary Fund managing director, in a curtain-raiser Thursday morning ahead of the spring meetings of the fund and World Bank next week.

"Say Anything" was a great movie with an all-time boom box meme; "Trade anything" is how retail investors live now.

The big picture: The so-called dumb money has greatly evolved from the 2021 GameStop meme stock moment.

JPMorganChase has inked a deal with a startup to remove carbon from the air — a step that could also prevent wildfires, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The purchase signals that the carbon removal industry is pushing ahead despite policy setbacks — and highlights how near-term benefits can help drive deals.

Vice President JD Vance will head the U.S. negotiating team for the peace talks with Iran on Saturday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Wednesday.

Why it matters: It's the highest level meeting between the U.S. and Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, as ceasefire negotiations hit a crucial tipping point that could lead to the resumption and escalation of the war if the high-stakes talks fail.

Airline stocks surged Wednesday as a ceasefire in the Iran war eased fears of a prolonged fuel shock and Delta signaled that travel demand remains strong.

Why it matters: The spike in jet fuel prices has sparked fears of a slowdown in travel as ticket prices rise — but Delta's projections suggest travelers will be resilient.