Strait of Hormuz remains all but closed, despite Iran ceasefire deal
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Iran "will bring the management of the Strait of Hormuz into a new stage" during negotiations with the U.S., the country's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei said in a new public message Thursday.
Why it matters: The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway off Iran's southern coast vital to the normal functioning of the global economy — remains effectively closed.
- That's despite the fact that the opening of the strait was a key provision in the 11th-hour ceasefire with Iran announced Tuesday.
- Peace talks between the two sides are planned to take place on Saturday in Islamabad.
What they're saying: Sultan Al Jaber, head of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, posted on LinkedIn Thursday morning: "This moment requires clarity. So let's be clear: the Strait of Hormuz is not open."
- "Access is being restricted, conditioned and controlled. Iran has made clear — through both its statements and actions — that passage is subject to permission, conditions and political leverage."
State of play: Hundreds of tankers carrying oil and other vital commodities are still waiting to transit Hormuz, the New York Times reports.
- Their operators and captains remain unclear on how to get through without risking Iranian attack.
- Nearly 20,000 mariners are essentially stranded in the Persian Gulf amid the crisis, per the International Maritime Organization.
Threat level: A U.S. official said the strait is "wide open," but at the same time admitted ships are not moving through it because they are intimidated by the Iranians.
- "Iran has threatened and coerced everybody," the official said.
- The official said the U.S. is considering steps that would encourage ships to start moving through the strait.
Follow the money: Iran is demanding the right to toll ships passing through the strait: $1 per barrel of oil aboard, paid in cryptocurrency, The Financial Times reported.
- That would keep global energy prices elevated indefinitely — plus violate international norms of free navigation.
- Oil is once again flirting with $100/barrel as of Thursday afternoon, and remains considerably above pre-war prices.
Khamenei commented on the strait in a new written message released Thursday for the 40-day commemoration of his father's assassination by Israel on the first day of the war.
- It was Mojtaba Khamenei's first public message since the ceasefire with the U.S. came into force. He said Iran is the "definite victor" of the war.
- Iran "did not seek war and does not seek it" now, but stressed the country "will not withdraw from our rightful rights," he said.
- "We will certainly not leave the aggressors. We will demand compensation for all damages and the price for the blood of martyrs and the compensation of the wounded," he added.
What to watch: Whether Israel's continued attacks in Lebanon lead Iran to keep Hormuz effectively shuttered, choking off about 25% of the world's seaborne oil supply.
